Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 12. Speed change.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 21, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
After covering the main thrust-generating device, which we can call a propeller, fan, or open rotor, depending on the application, we now look at the core, which provides the power to the thrust device. And there, we look at how we use the properties of the air as a gas to get it into a state that the gas turbine needs for different sections.
Figure 1. The gas turbine cycle. Source: Rolls-Royce: The Jet Engine.
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The all-important cabin. Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 20, 2024, © Leeham News: We do an article series about the all-important cabin for an airliner. We have looked at different airliners and their cabins and how the seating differs widely depending on what market and customer segments the aircraft addresses.
If an aircraft is configured for the domestic market the seating increases by almost 50% compared with an international long-range aircraft.
We now look at what cabins to use for aircraft economic evaluations. These are not necessarily the same cabins that an airline would later use after selecting an airliner type.
Summary:
- The evaluation cabin must not be the same as the cabins the airline plans to use.
- Evaluation cabins are designed to minimize the skew that OEMs can introduce by making cabin rules fit “their” candidate especially well.
Aircraft production woes stretch far beyond Boeing
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By Judson Rollins
June 17, 2024, ©. Leeham News: Estimating airplane delivery rates isn’t much more than a guessing game nowadays.
While many headlines point fingers at beleaguered Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems, aviation’s production woes are much more complex. Even in 2024, the labor shortage legacy of COVID-19 and raw material shortages exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war loom large over the industry.
Airbus struggles to deliver airplanes on time, and engine makers also see their deliveries constrained by supply chain issues.
Source: AFP via Aviation Week Network.
Summary
- Boeing commercial production is far below advertised rates.
- Airbus deliveries suffer from shortages of seats, other parts.
- Embraer says deliveries would be higher without supply chain issues.
- COMAC’s disruption opportunity is dampened by likely trade conflict.
- Pratt and GE Aerospace slowly ramp up delivery of redesigned components.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 11. Core cycle.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 14, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
We have covered the main thrust-generating device, which we can call a propeller, fan, or open rotor, depending on the application. To drive the main thrust device, we need a lot of shaft power, which is provided by the core. We start with how the core, which is a gas turbine, generates power.
Figure 1. The core cycle compared to a piston engine cycle. Source: Rolls-Royce, The Jet Engine.
Elliott’s plan for Southwest: new governance, curbed costs, monetize passengers
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By Judson Rollins
June 13, 2024, © Leeham News: Elliott Investment Management announced an activist shareholder campaign against Southwest Airlines’ board and management earlier this week.
The airline’s share price has declined 50 percent in three years and sits near its April 2020 value, one month into the COVID-19 pandemic. Elliott says this is due to poor board governance and day-to-day management.
Source: Elliott Investment Management.
“Southwest’s [board] has failed to hold management accountable for poor execution and has been unable to catalyze (or permit) the necessary strategic evolution,” Elliott wrote in a letter to the Southwest board.
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“Instead, the [board] has reinforced an insular culture and outdated thinking in the face of indisputable evidence that change is required.”
To gain a deeper insight into Elliott’s proposed ‘Stronger Southwest’ plan, LNA studied the firm’s letter and accompanying presentation and spoke with sources familiar with the situation.
Summary
- Elliott blames subpar returns on insular, stagnant board and management.
- Keys to restored profitability include curbing cost growth, passenger monetization.
- New board, CEO with industry experience would drive business change.
- Employee resistance is a likely headwind; will improved profit sharing help?
Elliott takes 11% share in Southwest, demands leadership overhaul
By Judson Rollins
June 10, 2024, © Leeham News: Hedge fund Elliott Investment Management announced yesterday that it has a $1.9bn position in Southwest Airlines, comprising 11% of the company’s shares. It issued a letter to the airline’s board, calling for new directors, a new CEO, more executives from outside, and a comprehensive business review.
In its letter, Elliott wrote, “While Southwest has a proud history, that history is not an argument for supporting poor leadership and sticking with a strategy that no longer succeeds in the modern airline industry.”
Source: Elliott Investment Management.
The announcement came as Southwest’s stock price remains near its April 2020 value, and management faces growing questions about excessive costs and middling unit revenue.
Elliott included with its letter a 51-slide presentation laying out its case for overhauling Southwest. One slide features a 2014 quote from founder and former CEO Herb Kelleher: “If things change faster outside your company than they change inside your company, you’ve got something to worry about.” Read more
Freighter market faces turmoil while passenger sector gets the headlines
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By Scott Hamilton
June 10, 2024, © Leeham News: Delivery delays of widebody airplanes are causing disruptions in freighter conversion plans as feedstock is retained for passenger operations.
IAI Bedek Boeing 777-300ER P2F. Photo: IAI Bedek.
Demand for passenger airplanes also is slowing Airbus’ plans for the A350 freighter, according to market intelligence.
Softening of the cargo market since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic also impacts the immediate need for converting airliners to freighters, sources say.
Although Boeing’s delays with the 787 and 777X get most of the blame, Airbus also gets some credit for the A350 program. Already, say potential cargo airplane buyers, the A350 freighter is looking at a delay beyond the 2026 entry into service (EIS) date. Uncertainties among Middle Eastern carriers Etihad and Emirates over the A350-1000 Rolls-Royce engine durability are also causing officials to rethink retaining Boeing 777-200LRs and 777-300ERs in service.
Certification of the IAI Bedek 777-300ER freighter conversion program is taking longer than expected. The reason: the negative halo effect dating to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification crisis with the Boeing 737 MAX.
It took Boeing 21 months to recertify the MAX after its grounding began in March 2019. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 still aren’t certified and aren’t expected to be until sometime next year.
Certification of the 777X, also affected by the negative halo effect of the MAX crisis, isn’t certified. EIS was intended to be in 1Q2020. Boeing has yet to receive Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) from the FAA, one of the final steps required before certification. Boeing officially hopes certification will occur next year. But quietly some within Boeing now don’t think TIA will come until 1Q2025. Emirates and Lufthansa Airlines, the first scheduled operators of the airplane, openly say they don’t expect deliveries until 2026.
The upshot: feedstock of the 777-300ERs for conversion companies is drying up.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 10. Propeller, Rotor or Fan?
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 7, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
Following the last Corner on airframe integration, several comments were made about the definition of propeller, open rotor, and/or fan. So, we’ll explore this further.
Figure 1. Evolution of Wright Brothers propellers from 1903 to 1905. Source: wright-brothers.org
The all-important cabin. Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 6, 2024, © Leeham News: We do an article series about the all-important cabin and its seating for an airliner. We have looked at different narrowbody cabins and how the seating differs widely depending on the market and customer segments the aircraft addresses.
This week, we focus on why widebody aircraft have relatively low seat counts compared with single-aisle aircraft, like the A321neo.
We use the cabin generator in our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to configure widebody cabins and compare these with the narrowbody equivalents.
Summary:
- The widebody cabins are configured for longer flight times, resulting in them taking more space.
- When a widebody is configured for domestic flights, its seating per cabin area is closer to that of a narrowbody.
Analyzing Boeing’s 90-Day Plan
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By the Leeham News Team
Analysis
June 3, 2024, © Leeham News: There is no timetable for Boeing to gain approval to boost production rates of the 737 MAX. And there is no timetable for the beleaguered company to regain “ticketing” authority for certification of its 737s or 787s. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will be calling the shots indefinitely.
Boeing last week presented the FAA with its plan to improve safety. The long PowerPoint, said FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker in a press conference on Thursday, wasn’t released to the public. But press releases from the FAA and Boeing, and an 11-page Executive Summary released by the manufacturer, were in many ways recitations of what’s already been done.
“All those highlighted bullet points posted below were all being done when I worked as a delivery manager 14 years ago,” a retired Boeing employee emailed LNA after reviewing the Boeing press release and Executive Summary.
“Eliminate defects? They’ve been saying that for 100 years. Of course, we want zero defects. The KPIs are nothing new. Been there done that. Nothing’s changed. Nothing.”
KPI stands for Key Performance Indicators. Boeing, and Whitaker, highlighted these in statements. There are six KPIs:
- Employee proficiency measures share of employees who are deemed proficient in core skills.
- Notice of Escape (NoE) rework hours measures time performing rework in Boeing’s final assembly facilities to address non-conforming work from its fabrication division and external suppliers.
- Supplier shortages measures shortages per day from Boeing’s fabrication division and external suppliers.
- Rework hours per airplane measures time spent performing rework in Boeing’s final assembly facilities.
- Travelers at factory rollout measures unfinished jobs traveling from Final Assembly
- Ticketing performance measures quality escapes per ticketed airplane prior to delivery.