Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 15.
March 21, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
After covering alternative propulsion concepts to lower CO2 and NOx emissions, we now study air transport’s non-CO2 effects on global warming. Of these, contrails have the largest impact.
Contrails form when aircraft gas turbine engines emit soot particles into low-temperature water vapor-saturated areas in the atmosphere. The soot particles form condensation nuclei, and the developed droplets freeze to ice crystals that form contrails.
Figure 1. The net Radiative Forcing of flights during 2019. Source: The report “Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021” from 2024.
How good is the C919? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 27, 2025, © Leeham News: The COMAC C919 is finding its first customers outside China, which gives us reason to examine it and estimate how efficient it would be operating a typical mission compared to its Western competitors.
We will compare the C919ER version with a 3,000nm maximum range to “its look-a-like”, the A320neo, which served as the C919 design template.
Figure 1. The C919ER is analyzed using the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The C919 consumes more fuel as the airframe is larger for the same seating capacity as the A320neo.
- Due to a lack of airframe maturity, the maintenance costs will also be higher.
- The big unknown will be the capital costs as the pricing or leasing strategy of a state-owned COMAC is hard to predict.
Boeing’s new fighter award moves away from money-losing fixed price contracts
By Scott Hamilton
March 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s major win for the US Air Force’s new F-47 sixth-generation fighter isn’t just a major plus for a company under siege since 2019. It’s a major shift in its defense and space contracting that moves away from fixed price contracting, costing it billions of dollars during the past two decades.
Boeing’s new F-47 fighter. Credit: US Air Force.
An Air Force official told LNA that the contract is a cost-plus-incentive-fee award for “Engineering and Manufacturing Development. ” The contract will mature, integrate, and test all aspects of the NGAD Platform (Next Generation Air Dominance), the official said. The contract will produce a small number of test aircraft, which will be used for testing. The contract also includes competitively priced options for Low-Rate Initial Production aircraft.
Boeing’s Defense, Space, and Security unit entered into a series of fixed-price contracts that have been plagued by cost overruns. The KC-46A aerial refueling tanker cost more than $7bn over the fixed-price contract. Converting two passenger model 747-8s into the new Air Force One cost more than $3bn. The MQ-25 unmanned Navy refueling drone, T-7 Red Hawk fighter trainer, and Starliner space capsule, among other defense programs, add up to billions of dollars more cost overruns on fixed-price contracts.
The F-47 is Boeing’s first all-new fighter contract with the Air Force. Its current fighter programs pre-date the 1997 merger with McDonnell Douglas Corp.
Airbus still struggles to deliver planes on time
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By Scott Hamilton
March 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus continues to struggle to deliver commercial airliners to customers on time, with the A320neo and A350 families now sold out into the early 2030s.
Customers complain that they can’t get their aircraft on time and often can’t get definitive information about delivery times.
Airbus blames the supply chain, including engine delays from CFM and seats from multiple companies. LNA is told quality control issues at the European assembly plants are also problems.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 14.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 21, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
Last week, we examined MTU’s WET engine concept, which utilizes a water capture process in a Turbofan to lower emissions, such as NOx, and reduce the water content in the exhaust, thereby reducing contrail risk. The week before, we looked at a similar concept, focused on a hydrogen burn process from Pratt & Whitney called HySIITE.
Both concepts capture water in the turbofan’s exhaust and can then release it in a way that avoids contrail generation. Contrails have garnered significant attention in recent years, as research has raised the possibility that persistent contrails can contribute as much or more to global warming than the CO2 released during the Turbofan combustion process in an airliner.
We will spend the next Corners digging deeper into the question of air transport’s non-CO2 effects that contribute to global warming. Contrails have the largest impact on these non-CO2 contributions.
Figure 1. The complex interaction of different heat radiation and blocking processes in our atmosphere. Source: The report “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000-2018” by Lee et al.
How good is the COMAC C919?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 20, 2025, © Leeham News: The COMAC C919 is finding its first customers outside China, with an order from the Brunei-based GallopAir upstart being first with an order for 30 C919 in September 2023. These aircraft cannot be delivered until the Brunei regulator has approved the C919 Chinese certification, which was issued by the Chinese regulator in September 2022.
Deliveries to Chinese airliners began in December 2022, with 2023 mostly spent on route proving with China Eastern Airlines first delivered aircraft. China Eastern took delivery of a further two C919s during 2023. COMAC delivered 13 C919s in 2024 to China Eastern Airlines (8), Air China (2), and China Southern Airlines (3).
The second Air China C919 was the first C919ER version, featuring a 3,000nm nominal range, whereas the others were the standard 2,200nm version.
With deliveries now at around one aircraft per month and the start of marketing to airlines outside China, it’s time to examine the C919 more closely and compare it to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX.
Figure 1. The first C919 delivered to China Eastern Airlines in December 2022. Source: COMAC.
Summary:
- The C919 has now reached series delivery, with 13 aircraft delivered during 2024.
- The first sales campaigns outside China have started.
- How significant a threat will the C919 pose to Airbus and Boeing?
Boeing CFO Brian West: OK on tariffs for now, backlogs and inventories help
By Karl Sinclair
Brian West, CFO of Boeing.
March 20, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing (BA) Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Brian West, was optimistic about Boeing’s path for recovery and appeared unworried about any near-term impacts of tariffs imposed by President Trump on aluminum and steel during an appearance yesterday at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference.
West was optimistic that in the short-term, Boeing would face little trouble in dealing with the turmoil caused by the tariff war started by President Trump.
“On the supply side, we don’t see material impact (from the tariffs)”, said West.
According to him, the aluminum that Boeing uses is nearly all domestically sourced and makes up 1% to 2% of the average cost of an aircraft.
As well, 80% of all parts and materials used at BCA and 90% at BDS, are from domestic suppliers.
West also pointed to the large buffer in inventory, purchased pre-tariffs, which mitigates any short-term pain the company may face.
“We think we’ve got that pretty well managed”, West summed up, but concerns still exist.
“We do worry about parts availability, due to the supply chain”, he said.
While Boeing may be protected in the near-term, many suppliers in the chain do not have the financial capability to stockpile inventory and could be sourcing raw materials from tariffed nations.
There was no mention of who would be on the hook, for any price increases, in that regard.
Pontifications: Southwest’s core problems are not solved by business model changes-yet
By Scott Hamilton
March 19, 2025, © Leeham News: I’ve been reading hand-wringing opinion pieces in recent weeks—especially last week—about the changes at Southwest Airlines.
Beginning with its first layoffs in its 50+ years of 1,700 headquarters staff through last week’s announcement of a series of changes that makes Southwest like just about every other US airline, the woeful crying bemoans the fact that Southwest is, essentially, no longer “Southwest.”
Readers of LNA would have seen nearly a year ago a series of article focusing on the underlying core problems at Southwest. Coincidentally, these appeared before Elliott Management Co. announced it had taken an 11% stake in Southwest, demanding changes in management and its business model to boost profits and stock prices. These and related articles are below.
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LNA’s analysis by Judson Rollins hit on just about everything Elliott and recent writers and observers complained about, including the sacred cow: Bags Fly Free. Rollins eviscerated the business sense of this benefit in this analysis. Rollins analyzed Southwest’s revenue challenges—and, more importantly, it’s out-of-control costs.
After Southwest’s epic operational meltdown over Christmas in December 2022, I wrote a review of the airline’s long march to this disaster that was decades in the making. I gave up flying Southwest 20 years before that mess for reasons outlined in my review. My column is of special relevance.
I have no sympathy for how the airline got into its predicament, nor for those hand-wringers today.
Boeing 2024 Proxy Statement: Executive Compensation includes retirement gifts for Calhoun, Deal; housing support for Ortberg, Pope, and other stuff
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By Karl Sinclair
March 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s top executives on average earn 81 times more money than the average company employee, the 2024 Proxy Statement reveals.
And in addition to the usual perks that top executives received, the exit packages for former corporate CEO David Calhoun and the CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Stan Deal, included unidentified retirement gifts. Deal, 61, received outplacement and unspecified transitional compensation.
Boeing filed its annual proxy statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 7, announcing the annual meeting of Boeing shareholders to be held via a virtual meeting on April 24.
In the SEC filing, Boeing detailed the compensation paid to executive officers during 2024.
(BCA: Boeing Commercial Aircraft, BDS: Boeing Defense, Space & Security, BGS: Boeing Global Services). Source: Boeing.
In 2024, more than $69m was spent compensating executives, with $55.4m paid in stock awards and options.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 13.
By Bjorn Fehrm.
March 14, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
Last week, we summarized the well-to-use efficiency gain of the Pratt & Whitney HySIITE engine process, which was announced in January. We found that with an expected 35% increase in engine efficiency, the liquid hydrogen chain, from the splitting of water into hydrogen and oxygen through liquefaction to burning it in the engine, used less renewable energy than if we used the same method to make Power to Liquid (PtL) SAF.
Pratt & Whitney was very clear in the presentation that the evolution of a HySIITE engine is a long-term project, with its possible use on the other side of 2040. There are just too many new components (heat exchangers, evaporators, etc.) that need development and maturation to think this is a near-term engine opportunity.
MTU’s similar WET engine concept, Figure 1, uses the same process ideas but with a different target. Here, the focus has been reducing emissions, like NOx and water content in the exhaust, to reduce contrail risk. This shall be achieved when burning jet fuel, SAF, and hydrogen.
Figure 1. An MTU WET engine with its straight core. Source: MTU.