Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 24.
May 30, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We examined alternative, lower-emission propulsion technologies three weeks ago and compared them to the industry’s typical improvement in fuel consumption over time the following week. Last week, we examined the improvements that SAF can offer by 2050.
Figure 1. The countries/regions with ETS or Carbon trading systems. Source: Wikipedia.
Before comparing these actions to lower emissions with the Contrail research, we examine the various emission trading schemes currently active worldwide.
Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 29, 2025, © Leeham News: We are writing an article series about stretching the A220 to a capacity in the A320neo range. The idea is to replace the A320neo over time to make room in the A320/321 production lines for more A321s and extend the A220 family with a larger variant.
We analyzed what we need to change to bring the capacity to the level of the A320neo. We could achieve this with a fuselage stretch, but then the Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) would need to increase to keep the A220 range. The wing and engines would then have problems, the takeoff run would get longer, and the climb to an efficient initial cruise altitude would be affected.
We now examine the potential fixes for these problems.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The A220-300 wing is not highly loaded compared to other Airbus single-aisle aircraft. With some modifications, it should be sufficient for an A220-500.
- The A220 engine is the mid-sized Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan, the PW1500G. It has limited thrust stretch capability. An alternative for a long-range (and thus heavier) A220-500 would be the CFM LEAP-1B from the 737 MAX.
Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
May 26, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s future depends on satisfying the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that its failures to follow safety protocols and quality control standards are behind it.
It’s been a rough six years since the worldwide Boeing 737 MAX fleet was grounded for 21 months following two fatal accidents five months apart. The existential threat to Boeing from the grounding was exacerbated by the two-year COVID-19 pandemic and a 20-month suspension in deliveries of the Boeing 787 due to production defects.
Then, just when Boeing was making progress, a previously undetected quality “escape” allowed a door plug on a brand new 737-9 MAX operated by Alaska Airlines to separate from the airplane at 14,800 ft shortly after take-off from Portland (OR) on Jan. 5, 2024.
A new crisis hit Boeing. The FAA, which had clamped down on Boeing’s 737 production line following the grounding on March 13, 2019, tightened its grip even further.
Today, Boeing is slowly clawing its way back.
In a media briefing last week for its fourth annual release of its Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report (CASO Report), Don Ruhmann, the CASO, and three colleagues outlined Boeing’s progress in satisfying the FAA that Boeing is on a path to technical and safety recovery. (Financial recovery is not strictly the FAA’s concern and wasn’t covered in the briefing.)
Summary
- Boeing’s Speak Up program for employees did not have an independent manager to whom complaints, concerns, and suggestions could be tendered. Previously, line managers received complaints, raising fears among employees that retaliation was possible. Now, an independent manager is part of the process.
- Boeing told LNA that Ruhmann welcomes a meeting with the engineers’ union, SPEEA, to hear concerns over a stalled SPEEA safety initiative called ASAP.
- Preparations for expansion of 737 production to the Everett (WA) widebody factory are underway, but this, too, depends on the FAA.
The annual report is an outgrowth of the 2018-2019 737 MAX crashes and the crisis that followed.
Updated, May 29, 2025: Department of Justice, Boeing OK to Non-Prosecution Agreement
UPDATE, May 30, 2025: The Non-Prosecution Agreement was filed with the federal court in the Northern District of Texas yesterday. Here is the document: 5-29-25 Boeing-MAX DOJ NPA
May 23, 2025, (c) Leeham News: The US Department of Justice and Boeing okayed the framework of a Non-Prosecution Agreement to finally resolve the litigation dating to the 2018/19 737 MAX accidents and the Jan. 5, 2024, Alaska Airlines flight 1282 accident. The notice was filed today in the federal court of the Northern District of Texas.
Boeing agrees to pay a total of $1.1bn in fines, compensation and investments. Some of this was previously paid with a Deferred Prosecution Agreement reached in 2021; and some was agreed in a second DPA reached last December. The first DPA was essentially voided following the Flight 1282 accident and the second was rejected on procedural grounds by the judge in the Texas federal court.
The notice may be downloaded here: NPA Notice 5-23-25.
The full agreement should be filed next week, the DOJ said.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 23.
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 23, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We have since we started in October last year looked at:
- Alternative, lower emission, propulsion technologies, ranging from electric aircraft with batteries as energy source, different propulsion hybrids, and new concepts for Jet-Fuel and Hydrogen gas turbine engines.
- We have also looked at recent research into the role of CO2, NOx emissions and Contrails generated by airliners.
- Three weeks ago, we summarized the present situation around SAF, Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
We examined Alternative 1’s emissions improvement two weeks ago and compared it to the normal improvement in new airliners’ fuel consumption last week. Now, we examine the improvement that SAF can offer compared to the other two.
Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part II
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By Karl Sinclair
May 22, 2025, © Leeham News: In our first look at OEMs in the aviation industry with a significant revenue stream derived from services, LNA analyzed airframe-makers.
Related Article
Now the focus shifts to engine and simulator manufacturers, and how after-market sales can pull a company through difficult times. It can even be the model, that a business follows.
Boeing publicizes fourth Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 21, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Don Ruhmann publishes his 2025 Safety Report today. Leeham was present in briefings both on the report content (this article) and how the safety work is progressing in view of recent problem areas (a Monday article).
The report describes the work of the dedicated Chief Aerospace Safety Office, established in 2021. The office is focused on preventing accidents by fostering an active safety culture. The 2025 report describes areas where Boeing’s Safety work has been improved and expanded.
This is the fourth report published since Boeing started to share them with the public in 2022.
Boeing’s 2025 annual safety report due this month
By Scott Hamilton
May 20, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing will release its fourth annual safety report this month. The first was in 2022.
The document is the Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report (CASO Report). Previous CASO reports outlined programs Boeing adopted since the 2019 737 MAX grounding and safety crises emerged across Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
Related Documents
Quality control, safety protocols, intimidation, retribution, and retaliation against line workers were highlighted during the MAX accident investigations and whistleblowing accusations at the Renton, Everett (WA), and Charleston (SC) production plants.
Quality control at Spirit AeroSystems, which builds the 737 fuselage and nose sections of the other 7-Series commercial airliners, also emerged as an issue.
The Federal Aviation Administration’s cooperation with Boeing and transfer of inspection and quality authority also came under scrutiny. The FAA revoked Boeing’s “ticketing authority” to certify 737s and 787s as airworthy before delivery, assuming this role itself. FAA inspectors clamped down on Boeing, reviewing previous work and overseeing production lines.
There is no end in sight for the FAA to relax its grip on Boeing. Boeing must meet six Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) before the FAA is convinced that the company has its house in order, allowing production rates to return to pre-MAX grounding levels and boost production for the 787. These KPIs are:
- Employee proficiency measures share of employees currently staffed who are deemed proficient in core skills.
- Notice of Escape (NoE) rework hours measures time performing rework due to non-conforming work from Fabrication and suppliers.
- Supplier shortages measures shortages per day from Fabrication and suppliers.
- Rework hours per airplane measures time spent performing rework in Final Assembly.
- Travelers at factory rollout measures unfinished jobs traveling from Final Assembly.
- Ticketing performance measures quality escapes per ticketed airplane prior to delivery.
Source: Boeing.
The 2024 CASO Report is expected to update these topics and more.
FAA’s data of accident, incidents, often not shared
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By Colleen Mondor
May 19, 2025, © Leeham News: On March 27, acting FAA Administrator Chris Rocheleau testified before the US Senate Commerce Committee on the continued fallout from the Jan. 29 midair collision near Reagan National Airport in Washington (DC) between an American Eagle Airlines CRJ-700 and a US Army helicopter. All aboard both craft died.
In response to repeated questions from several senators about how warning signs about the congested airspace were missed, Rocheleau admitted that the agency needed to be more proactive about future safety issues, saying, “We have to identify trends, we have to get smarter about how we use data, and when we put corrective actions in place, we must execute them.”
FAA history of trend analysis
The FAA has collected safety information on National Airspace System users for decades. While the earliest data contained incident and accident reports drawn from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the agency’s Aviation Incident Data System and the Service Difficulty Reporting System were created in 1978. By the early 1980s, they were stored in the FAA’s “System 2000,” where eventually they were converted into usable formats and transmitted to FAA employees. It was cumbersome, time-consuming, and not entirely accessible. But it was a start, and by 1988, as listed in the following table from the Office of Technology Assessment, several other databases had been established.
| Data Type | Database | Federal Agency | Earliest Year* |
| Accident/Incident | Aviation Accident Data System | NTSB | 1962 |
| Accident/Incident | Accident Incident Data System | FAA | 1978 |
| Incident | Aviation Safety Reporting System | NASA | 1975 |
| Incident | Near Midair Collision Database | FAA | 1980 |
| Incident | Operational Error Database | FAA | 1985 |
| Incident | Pilot Deviation Database | FAA | 1985 |
| Mechanical Reliability | Service Difficulty Reporting System | FAA | 1978 |
| Air Operator Data System | FAA | 1980 | |
| Traffic Levels | Air Traffic Activity Database | FAA | Previous 18 months |
| Operational Practices | Air Operator Data System | FAA | 1980 |
| Air Carrier Statistics Database | RSPA | 1968 | |
| Inspection Results | Work Program Management System | FAA | 1987 |
| Violations/Enforcement Actions | Enforcement Information System | FAA | 1963 |
*Earliest year for data stored electronically. RSPA = Research and Special Programs Administration. “Incident” in this database does not always refer to NTSB-determined incidents. Other agencies sometimes use the term for any manner of non-accident events.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 22.
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 16, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We have since we started in October last year looked at:
-
- Alternative, lower emission propulsion technologies, ranging from electric aircraft with batteries as energy source, different propulsion hybrids, and new concepts for jet-fuel and Hydrogen gas turbine engines.
- We have also reviewed recent research on the role of CO2, NOx emissions, and Contrails generated by airliners.
- Two weeks ago, we summarized the present situation around SAF, Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
We examined Alternative 1’s emissions improvement last week and now compare it to the normal improvement in fuel consumption, and thus emissions, that the airline industry is continuously working on.