Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Embraer ponders mainline jet–but this must compete internally with other projects
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Embraer Group CEO Francisco Gomes Neto. Credit: Embraer.
Nov. 6, 2025, © Leeham News: When it comes to new airplane development, Airbus and Boeing get all the headlines.
The world’s third-largest airplane manufacturer, Embraer, gets overlooked. Compared with the Big Two, Embraer is small potatoes—and the market for which it is best known, its E-Jet, is primarily associated with regional airlines flown by major carriers, not the big airlines.
Given the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing, their delivery delays, the latter’s groundings, production, safety and quality concerns, many urged Embraer to move up to the mainline jet sector. Competing with Airbus and Boeing would be daunting enough. There is also China’s emerging COMAC to consider. COMAC may be struggling today for geopolitical and industrial reasons, but commercial airplane programs are 40-50-year endeavors. Few doubt that COMAC will become a force in the future.
Embraer acknowledges it is considering developing an airplane with 180-240 seats, presumed to be a single-aisle aircraft. However, this is far from the only possibility of a new program. In addition to the risks and rewards of taking on the Big Two and COMAC, here’s what else Embraer is up to. Studies are also underway for:
- A larger business jet;
- A smaller commercial jet;
- Continued research and development of its Energia environmental aircraft initiative; and
- The final stretch for bringing the EVE eVTOL to market.
There’s only so much money to go around. Development of a mainline jet must compete internally for a piece of this pie.
Embraer developed more than 20 new aircraft designs since 2000, a record unmatched by other manufacturers. Credit: Embraer.
Embraer has designed, developed, and produced more than 20 aircraft since 2000. Most of them required commercial certification.
Embraer’s largest aircraft are the E195-E2 and the KC-390 tanker-transport. Dimensionally, these are about the same size as the Boeing 737-8 and Airbus A320neo.
Despite similarities to other accidents, don’t draw conclusions in UPS accident
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday’s crash of a UPS Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11F evokes memories of American Airlines flight 191 in Chicago and the Air France Concorde crash in Paris.
The moment of impact of a UPS Boeing MD-11F freight that crashed on take-off from the Louisville (KY) airport. Credit: USA Today.
The UPS plane’s No. 1 engine apparently separated from the wing at around V1, the take-off speed, at the Louisville (KY) airport, where UPS’ main US hub is located. This is similar to the engine separation of the No. 1 engine of the American McDonnell Douglas DC-10 at a similar point on its take-off roll at O’Hare Airport. (This was the first aviation accident that I had as a reporter.)
American’s flight did not catch fire on take-off, but the slats on the left wing retracted after the engine damaged the hydraulic lines along the leading edge of the wing. There is a famous aviation picture of the DC-10, with its wings vertical to the ground, missing the engine, seconds before the plane crashed in a trailer park next to the airport. Valves were later added to the DC-10 to prevent such a retraction in the future.
The UPS MD-11, a derivative of the DC-10, did catch fire. So did the Air France Concorde, after running over a part that was on the runway at Charles de Gaulle Airport that fell off a preceding flight (ironically, a Continental Airlines DC-10). The Concorde’s tires threw the part into the wing fuel tank, which ignited. There is a famous picture of the Concorde, committed to take off, aloft on fire.
The UPS flight sequence, captured on multiple videos, is eerily similar to the American and Air France crashes. One video shows the MD-11 with its wings vertical to the ground, as the left wing sliced through a building seconds before impact.
Despite similarities, exercise caution in drawing conclusions.
Embraer posts record 3Q25 revenues, maintains full-year outlook despite softening profit
By Tom Batchelor
Nov. 04, 2025, © Leeham News:
Embraer reported record third-quarter revenues and reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial and delivery guidance on Tuesday, even as profits softened compared with the previous quarter.
The Brazilian aerospace manufacturer said its 3Q25 results remained strong across its commercial, executive, and defense segments, underscoring continued momentum despite well-documented challenges, in the form of tariffs and supply chain delays.
The company reported revenues of $2 billion in 3Q25, an 18% year-on-year increase and the highest third-quarter figure in its history.
The performance was fuelled by a 31% jump in Commercial Aviation revenues and a 27% rise in Defense & Security, reflecting stronger deliveries.
Executive Aviation also remained a major contributor to overall performance, building on a surge in first-half shipments.
As ATC collapses, FAA modernization funding remains elusive
By Colleen Mondor
Nov. 4, 2025, © Leeham News: The US Air Traffic Control (ATC) system is melting down as the US federal government shutdown takes its toll on an already overstressed, understaffed, underfunded, antiquated system.
A deadly mid-air collision on Jan. 29 this year, several near-collisions between airliners on the ground, and system slowdowns plague the ATC system.
In the past few months, there has been a flurry of announcements from the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the FAA concerning plans to upgrade and modernize the ATC system.
The new system, which, according to Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, enjoys “an unprecedented coalition of support,” is projected to cost $31.5bn and will take 3-4 years to complete—a timeline that draws skepticism from many aviation circles.
The DOT website insists the program will be the envy of the world and “enhance safety in the sky, reduce delays, and unlock the future of air travel.” It lists critical actions in the plan as:
- Replacing antiquated telecommunications: with new fiber, wireless, and satellite technologies at over 4,600 sites, 25,000 new radios, and 475 new voice switches.
- Replacing 618 radars that have gone past their life cycle.
- Addressing runway safety by increasing the number of airports with the Surface Awareness Initiative to 200.
- Building six new air traffic control centers for the first time since the 1960s and replacing towers and TRACONs.
- Installing new modern hardware and software for all air traffic facilities to create a standard platform system throughout towers, TRACONs, and centers.
- Addressing the challenges that Alaska faces by adding 174 new weather stations.
A proposed timeline for the system’s actions can be found here.
Embraer focuses on production, supply chain efficiency, cost reduction
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Like Airbus, Boeing, and the engine manufacturers, Embraer is devoting millions of dollars to making its production more efficient and less costly. It’s also working with its supply chain to achieve similar results and fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Francisco Gomes Neto, CEO of Embraer Group. Credit: Embraer.
Group CEO Francisco Gomes Neto broadly outlined Embraer’s approach during its annual investors day in New York City.
Like Airbus and Boeing, Embraer has been affected (though not to the same degree) with some delivery delays. Some are due to engine issues with the Pratt & Whitney GTF powering the E2 jets. Supply chain interruptions are also a factor. Traveled work is another.
“Production leveling will allow us to better distribute the production and the deliveries throughout the year,” Gomes Neto said. He said there have been “impressive results” in reducing traveled work and increasing production capacity.
Another initiative, which he calls “very important,” is reducing the production lead time of our aircraft. “Despite the challenge we still have in the supply chain, we have been able to achieve impressive results, promising results,” Gomes Neto said.
Credit: Embraer.
Gomes Neto said that Embraer now produces the Praetor business jet 40% faster than it did four years ago. The KC-390 is produced 33% faster, and the E-Jets are 27% faster.
He added that the company is undertaking initiatives to increase production, boost productivity, and further reduce wait times.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 14. Detailed Design.
October 31, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times. We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions.
We have exited the Preliminary Design phase through the Preliminary Design Reviews, PDRs, and now enter the Detailed Design phase.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
Airbus’ A321neo, A321LR or A321XLR? Part 2.
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 30, 2025, © Leeham News: We went through the creation of Airbus’s A321 in the first article, and why its initial sales were slow, and why the sales only picked up after the launch of the A320/A321neo models, and how it came to dominate sales and deliveries in the A320 family after COVID.
For an airline, it’s now a matter of what mix of the different A321neo variants to buy. Is there a large penalty to “misuse” an A321LR or XLR on shorter routes, or can a fleet of the more expensive and heavier models be used on shorter routes to cover gaps and increase their daily utilization without a cost penalty?
To get the answer, we look into the different A321neo variants and compare their capacities and operational costs in this article using the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model, APCM.
Figure 1. The A321neo with the new Cabin Flex door configuration from 2Q2018 deliveries. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A321neo is the star in the Airbus lineup. It lacks competition for at least another year, and its two margin-rich variants, the A321LR and XLR, the Boeing 737 MAX 10 can’t compete with once it gets certified.
- There are extra costs, however, to operate these more capable types. It means these shouldn’t be “misused” too much on normal routes.
Airbus 3Q2025: Still on target in 2025 – gliders remain, changes in 2026
By Karl Sinclair
Oct 30, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus (AB) CEO Guillaume Faury is still confident that the commercial aircraft maker can hit this year’s target of 820 aircraft deliveries, despite the snarls it is dealing with in the supply chain.
At the end of 1H2025, Airbus had a whopping 60 aircraft sans moteurs. That number dropped to 32 by the end of the third quarter. Faury says that number will hit zero by year-end.
Engine issues at both GE and Safran, which power the workhorse A320neo family under the CFM International joint venture, put deliveries badly behind schedule. It was revealed today during the earnings call that the snags are distributed about 50/50 across the engine OEMs. Typically, Safran provides the LEAP 1A engines to Airbus for delivery to European and other non-US airlines and lessors. GE provides them to Airbus for delivery to US airlines and lessors.
Through the first nine months of 2025, Airbus delivered 507 aircraft to customers, up from 497 over the same period in 2024. That leaves a whopping 313 aircraft to be delivered over the final quarter, to meet the guidance figures.
Guillaume Faury, CEO, Airbur Group. Source: Airbus.
To put it all into context, if Airbus were to hit its future targeted rate increases, for the next three months, it would produce:
- 75/mo for the A320neo family in 2027 = 225 aircraft
- 12/mo for the A220 family in 2026 (guidance changed from 14/mo) = 36 aircraft
- 12/mo for the A350 family in 2028 = 36 aircraft
- 5/mo for the A330 family in 2029 = 15 aircraft
Airbus would deliver 312 jets to customers, one shy of the target.
It must deliver on those rates, now.
Boeing 3Q2025: 777X gets new $4.9bn write off as earnings results prove mixed
By Karl Sinclair
Oct. 29, 2025, © Leeham News: The Boeing Company (BA) took another charge in the third quarter, to the tune of $4.9bn, on the struggling 777X program–which has yet to deliver a single aircraft to a customer.
Boeing released its 3Q2025 results, following the positive sentiment surrounding the second-quarter results. Despite posting the first positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) since 2023, investors drove shares down nearly 5% by midday.
Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg placed the blame directly on Boeing’s doorstep when he said on the financial network CNBC Wednesday morning, “This is something (the 777X/737 Max certification) that was driven by our inability to get through the certification process as fast as we anticipated.”
Entry into service (EIS) for the 777X is now expected in 2027, rather than next year. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 are still expected to be certified next year.
Third-quarter losses from operations at Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA) totaled $5.353bn, deepening from the 2024 results, when the division lost $4.021bn.
Free Cash Flow was $223m for the quarter and ($2.252bn) for the first nine months of 2025. Operating cash flow was $1.123bn for the quarter, ($266m) for the year, driven by higher commercial deliveries.
Corporate net losses for the quarter totaled $5.339bn, an improvement over 2024 results, when the company lost $6.174bn.
Boeing takes $4.9bn charge in 3Q against 777X; reports slightly improved quarter YOY
Oct. 29, 2025, (c) Leeham News: Boeing takes $4.9bn charge on 777X in 3Q2025 earnings report. Loss from operations: $4.78bn vs $5.76bn year-over-year; net loss $5.34bn vs $6.17bn YOY. Cash flow +$1.1bn vs ($1.34bn) YOY.
More to come shortly….