Bjorn’s Corner: Training for airline flying

 

Bjorn Fehrm has an aeronautical engineering background with patented devices on several aircraft.

By Bjorn Ferhm

Introduction

16 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: As described last week, I was asked if I wanted to fly an modern airliner later in the spring and you can guess my answer! Having accepted the challenge, it was time to think about how to get ready. Even though the flying I once learned would sit, modern airliner flying is 90% about the procedures and how these make the transportation of passengers safer and more reliable.

This is something different than just flying the around in the aircraft. It is all about how the aircraft manufacturer has created an environment for consistency, economy and safety and how the goalposts in these dimensions gets moved further and further out. That is what we should test.

I cannot reveal what aircraft it will be, but my tools for training will give away the general type.  I am right now using Airbus flight simulators and manuals to refresh my flying and learn the procedures used. Read more

Rolls-Royce displaces Engine Alliance for Emirates A380 order

Rolls-Royce, in a major upset, won the Emirates Airlines order to power 50 Airbus A380s ordered in November 2013. The win displaces Engine Alliance, which to now has been the sole-source provider for EK’s A380s.

Two sources confirmed the RR win. RR and Airbus did not comment on the win. EK and RR have not made any announcement. EA also did not comment.

According to one source, EK determined the RR Trent 900 was determined to be up to 4% more efficient than EA. But it’s unclear if there were other factors involved. Read more

Boeing 737 MAX: performance with reported engine SFC shortfall

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

14 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: There have been persistent reports that the CFM LEAP engines should be behind their fuel consumption targets. We commented on these rumors recently and have since got further Market Intelligence from those with direct knowledge confirming that the LEAP-1B for 737 MAX is behind target Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC).

As we commented before, the key is to what degree any deficit will be ameliorated before Entry Into Service (EIS) and how remaining gaps, if any, are handled. It would not be the first time an engine series would be behind in SFC at an aircrafts EIS. Numbers where targets are met from day one are rather in the minority. As we are in the unique situation to have a complete airliner performance model, we have modeled how any engine performance  gaps would actually affect aircraft performance.

Summary

  • We have investigated what a shortfall of LEAP-1B SFC of the reported 4.5% would mean for 737 MAX range and fuel consumption.
  • We also modeled what an improved situation would mean for the aircraft. For that scenario, we choose an improvement with 2% before entry into service.
  • Finally, we compared these two situations with a 737 MAX equipped with nominal performance LEAP-1Bs and looked at the improvement in performance for all three compared to today’s 737NG.

Read more

Aviation Partners Boeing: next step–scimitar for 757, 767

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Introduction

April 14, 2015: Several airlines operate the Boeing 757 across the Atlantic on “thin” routes but sometimes have to do refueling tech stops when high westerly winds

Aviation Partners Boeing plans the Split Scimitar Winglet (SSW) for the Boeing 757 and 767. Officials plan to seek board approval on the 757 SSW this year, the 767 next year. Source: Aviation Partners Boeing. Click on image to enlarge.

occur.

The 757s are aging, with engine maintenance, repair and overhaul costs increasing under the tightly-controlled contract with Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney.

Some airlines want a “757 replacement.” Boeing and Airbus don’t see a market for “just” a 757 replacement and argue the 737-900ER/9 and A321neo/LR are the replacements. Even these fall somewhat short.

Industry observers and pontificators nonetheless are obsessed with a “757 replacement” (except us—we’ve redefined the replacement as one needed for the 225/5000 Sector [225-250 seats, 5,000 miles] and concluded an airplane very similar to the 767-200 is needed).

Patrick La Moria, EVP and chief commercial officer, Aviation Partners Boeing.

While all this debate is going on, Aviation Partners Boeing (APB) is close to seeking board approval to offer a scimitar option for the 757 that will improve efficiency by about another 1.5%. A scimitar for the Boeing 767 may not be far behind.

Summary

  • Scimitars and the increased range will eliminate some “tech” stop for fuel.
  • Field performance will be better.
  • Low fuel prices and prospect of scimitars (as well as lack of availability of new airplanes) may lead to longer retention of 757s and 767s.

Read more

Boeing 4Q cash flow increase stemmed from huge accelerated customer advances: UBS

April 13, 2015: Boeing surprised aerospace analysts at the year end earnings call with far higher cash flow than had been expected.

Analysts beat up Boeing pretty badly on the 3Q2014 earnings call and were taken aback by the dramatic upswing in the fourth quarter.

We began to hear as early as January that Boeing achieved the marked improvement by getting accelerated advances from customers who had placed commercial airplane orders, resulting in the dramatic upswing. The reason was to respond to the beating Boeing took on the third quarter earnings call, several Wall Street analysts told us.

In advance of the first quarter earnings call April 22, UBS aerospace analyst David Strauss issued a detailed report about Boeing’s Free Cash Flow (FCF) that outlines just how dramatically Boeing pulled forward customer advances.

Below are selected excerpts from the April 13 note. Read more

Pontifications: Wizz could be first face-off of 737 MAX 200 vs “A320neo 195″

Hamilton (5)

By Scott Hamilton

April 13, 2015: A campaign that began last year between Airbus and Boeing for a large order of 100 airplanes at Europe’s Low Cost Carrier, Wizz Air, could be the first face off between the “A320neo 195″ (our name) and the 737 MAX 200 (Boeing’s name).

Note I said “could be.” I know Boeing is offering the MAX 200. I know Airbus is offering the A320neo. What I don’t know is if Airbus is offering the A320 195.

We first discussed the A320neo 195 last week, after a tip off by Mary Kirby of Runway Girl Network.

Wizz Air, of Hungary, currently operates only A320s and A321s. The competition is for 100 aircraft of the re-engined generation. This is a hot contest, with Boeing looking not only to flip Wizz from the A320 to the 737 but also to get a second customer for the MAX 200. Ryanair was the launch customer for the airplane last year, but no new orders have been landed since. Boeing touts the MAX 200 as the perfect solution for LCCs.

The contest is hot enough that our Market Intelligence indicates the pricing is already comfortably below $40m.

Airbus hasn’t announced a marketing name for its high-density version of the 195-seat A320neo, which last month won regulatory approval of the 195-seat concept. This is at 27-inch seat pitch. The MAX 200, which Ryanair said it will configure for 197 seats, will have a mixture of 30-inch and 29-inch pitch. Airbus believes galley cart requirements means Ryanair will have to go to 194 seats. Read more

Boeing MOM airliner; market coverage

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

12 April, 2015: In our study of the options for Boeing’s market study called Middle of the Market (MOM), we could conclude that the most likely aircraft to cover their 200-250 seat 4750nm range requirement would be a seven abreast twin aisle aircraft using their patented new oval construction, thereby saving weight and drag.

After finishing the series, Readers requested that we conclude the work by showing what market segment a family of such airliners would cover and how they would relate to the Boeing 787-8. As it is pretty straight forward to see with our aircraft performance model how much of a range of aircraft variants one can make from one base development of aircraft and engine, we decided to fulfill the wish from our Readers.

We have therefore looked at how far the concept MOM airliner could be stretched and what segment in the market would be covered by it. We also studied how much such a family would encroach on Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner market.

Summary

  • A base design such as our proposed MOM dual aisle airliner can typically cover a market of 30-40 seat increments per model.
  • Limiting factors are the base models wing area and span, together with engine sizing. Much depends on the engine’s stretch capability.
  • A MOM airliner family would compete with the 787-8 for short- and mid-haul traffic, there presenting a more economical alternative. The Dreamliner would have long-haul for itself.

Read more

Bjorn’s Corner: Flying revisited

Bjorn Fehrm has an aeronautical engineering background with patented devices on several aircraft.

By Bjorn Fehrm

April 09, 2015; I’m up for a challenge in the next weeks: I’ve been invited to fly an airliner. Having flown 14 aircraft types before it shouldn’t be so big news if it wasn’t for none of those types being close to the aircraft I will fly now, a modern civil airliner.

The previous types were military trainers, fighters and later civil sports and business aircraft. They are all more or less the same. Flying is like cycling and driving a car: it is something one learns and then doesn’t unlearn. So the flying part should be no problem.

It is not what makes me undertake weeks of preparations. It is that other thing, the aircraft’s computerized soul, that expects to be operated in a certain way. The buttons should be pressed and handles moved in the right order or the aircraft will tell me it doesn’t understand what I want.

So now I am reading through thousands of pages and flying civil airliner procedures day and night. We will dwell on how and why in a couple of Bjorn’s Corners. Read more

Shake-up continues at Bombardier

The shake-up continues at Bombardier, with new CEO Alain Bellemare replacing Mike Arcamone, the president of the commercial aerospace unit, with the former president of mega-lessor International Lease Finance Corp., Fred Cromer.

Bellemare also retained the consulting firm Plane View Partners, whose CEO, Henri Coupron, was the former CEO of ILFC. Both men lost their jobs when AerCap purchased ILFC, making AerCap the second largest lessor in the world (behind GECAS).

Arcamone’s days were considered numbered once Bellemare was named CEO in February.

Landing Cromer is a major positive for Bombardier. Arcamone’s strength was production, for which the CSeries program benefited as it was challenged by supply chain issues. But Arcamone, who came from the auto industry, didn’t have aviation sales experience. Cromer’s experience as president of ILFC brings sorely needed direct commercial aviation know-how to Bombardier, complimenting Bellemare’s background from Pratt & Whitney.

Coupron’s involvement is also a major positive. In addition to his time as CEO of ILFC, Coupron had a long career at Airbus, followed by a short tenure at consultantcy Seabury Group before joining ILFC.

These are major steps that will help remake Bombardier’s commercial unit and give support to the CSeries.

Bellemare is expected to complete his studies and recommendations how to remake Bombardier and the aerospace programs in advance of the Paris Air Show in June.

Airbus to tout economy “Choice” at Hamburg interiors show

April 8, 2015: Airbus will unveil a new concept at the international Hamburg interiors convention next week call “Choice” for the economy cabin.

The concept is intended to further segment the traveling public demand and increase revenue for airlines.

Chris Emerson, SVP-Marketing, Airbus. Photo: Airbus.

While the concept isn’t entirely new—it’s a four-class configuration, including business class, and some airlines are moving in this direction already—Airbus is formalizing the marketing concept, which officials believe give it a competitive advantage over Boeing’s wide-body products.

The Choice concept includes Budget Economy, Comfort Economy, Premium Economy and Business Class.

Christopher Emerson, Senior Vice President-Marketing, said that 10% of Airbus operators use maximum capacity in the Airbus wide-body fleet vs 60% for Boeing’s wide-bodies. This gives Airbus operators flexibility to configure cabins in a way to cater to different passenger demands and maximize revenue, he said. Read more