Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Trump tariffs beginning to hurt US aerospace companies; EU competitors to benefit
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
Sept. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: New policies by President Donald Trump in the first six months of his second administration in trade, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) are causing a what may become a significant shift in defense spending that will benefit European companies.
The added business could strengthen those that also participate in commercial aerospace, to the detriment of US companies, notably Airbus.
US companies that for decades were the major suppliers to allies are already beginning to see European countries redirect spending to EU firms. Following Trump’s imposition of high tariffs on certain EU countries and others on Aug. 1, US defense companies have been hurt.
India canceled deliveries of Boeing 737-based P-8A Poseidons. Spain and Switzerland canceled orders for Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter.
Figure 1. Boeing P-8, based on the commercial 737 NG. India suspended delivery of the P8 due to the Trump tariffs. Credit: Boeing. Airbus now proposes a rival airplane based on the A321.
Airbus, Rolls-Royce, MTU, and others expect to benefit from these changes. And, as these companies see more defense work coming their way, then—at least in theory—their commercial business will benefit from stronger balance sheets, profits, cash flow, and perhaps the corporations’ technology.
In an interview at the Paris Air Show in June, the consulting firm Accenture told LNA that it is beginning to see key trends and increases in the defense sector.
Figure 2. Spain and Switzerland canceled orders for the Lockheed F-35. Credit: Lockheed. Airbus stands to benefit, among other EU-based defense contractors.
“Obviously, things are changing in terms of the dynamics,” said Jeff Wheless, Growth & Strategy Research Leader at Accenture. “I think certainly from a NATO perspective, I think folks are increasing their spending.”
Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, said that Trump’s pressure on NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of their budgets paid off. For decades, NATO countries were committed to a 2% spending level, but often failed to meet this commitment.
“Europe is spending by far less money on defense acquisitions than the US,” said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury in response to an LNA question at the Paris Air Show. “It’s a ratio of one to four or one to five. On top of that, Europe is procuring a lot from the US. I think the message is loud and clear from the U.S. that Europe should take better care of its own security.”
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 5. Market research.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
August 29, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New project talks about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 28, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyze Airbus’s A330neo, how the different variants were developed, their sales, and their performance before and after the neo upgrade.
After examining the history of the A330-200 and its evolution into a neo version, the A330-800, we now assess its performance. We utilize our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to compare the performance of the A330-800 to Boeing’s smallest Dreamliner, the 787-8.
Figure 1. The A330-800, the very long-range A330. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-800 is an aircraft for especially demanding routes. It’s the only 8,000nm airliner in the 250-seat class.
- Our 787-8 comparison shows where the A330-800 has its advantage, on the world’s longest routes.
GE increasing use of automation and AI to support MRO
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By Scott Hamilton
A tool used by GE Aerospace for its Artificial Intelligence MRO process. Credit: AIN.
Aug. 25, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace is using robotics, automation, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) as well as rare access to supercomputers throughout its global footprint, services, and in research and development as it strives for engine maturity, reliability, and creating new engines.
Shop visits, on-wing engine inspections, and repair technologies must be made more efficient, rapid, and cost-effective to serve the thousands of legacy CFM56s, GE90s, CF6s, and the growing number of CFM LEAP engines.
The CFM56 and LEAP engines power the Boeing 737. The CFM 56 and LEAP also power the Airbus A320neo family in competition with the previous generation International Aero Engine V2500 and the current generation Pratt & Whitney GTF, respectively. The CF6 still powers older widebody airplanes, like the Boeing 767. The GE90 powers legacy Boeing 777s.
The forthcoming GE9X, the giant engine on Boeing’s 777X series, is also benefiting from efforts to mature the engine as much as possible before entry into service next year. This is a special case because of the six-year certification and delivery delays of the 777X brought by some initial technical issues of the GE9X discovered during flight testing and the negative halo effect of the certification crisis surrounding the 737 MAX, beginning in 2019.
The 777X was to be delivered in the first quarter of 2019; now, entry into service (EIS) is expected next year.
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Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 4. Feasibility studies.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
August 22, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
China, Boeing appear near massive order: report
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 21, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is nearing a massive order for up to 500 aircraft with China, Bloomberg reports. Completing the deal depends on political considerations, as so many of these do between China and the US for Boeing or Europe for Airbus airplanes.
Air China is the primary state airline of China. Boeing 737 MAX. Credit: CNBC.
But it’s significant that negotiations are active and appear nearing a deal if the politics can be worked out between the Chinese government and the Trump Administration. Boeing was frozen out by Beijing in 2017 when President Donald Trump, in his first term, began imposing tariffs on China in 2017.
President Biden, who took office in 2021, not only kept the Trump tariffs in place, economic and industrial sanctions were imposed when China covertly aligned itself with Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. When Trump was reelected in 2024, one of his first actions the following year was to impose more tariffs on China.
Even if the Boeing deal doesn’t successfully conclude soon, the very fact that serious negotiations and a near-deal validate LNA’s thesis since
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LNA’s analysis over the years concluded that China’s home-grown COMAC C919 could not fill the gap for the domestic demand for new airliners in the coming years created with the 2019 21-month grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX. China was the first to ground the aircraft after two fatal crashes of the MAX five months apart in 2018 and 2019. It was the last to un-ground the MAX after the Federal Aviation Administration recertified the airplane in November 2021.
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 21, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyzed Airbus’s A330-300 and -900 over the last weeks, the mid-range Airbus that gradually developed into a credible long-range aircraft.
After examining the A330-300’s development into the A330-900, we now analyze the A330-200 and its neo version, the A330-800. Why was a shorter A330-200 developed and put into service four years after the A330-300, when in almost all other cases the next version is a stretch?
And why did this smaller A330 sell really well against the larger A330-300 when its neo version doesn’t? We utilize our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to analyze the A330-200 and -800. Then we compare the A330-800’s capabilities and efficiency with Boeing’s 787-8.
Figure 1. The A330-200, a model that sold almost half of all A330s until the A330neo was announced. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-200 was one of the airline world’s few successful shrinks from a base version. Normally, base versions get complemented with higher capacity versions, and shrinks are duds.
- The A330-200 and now the A330-800 compete with Boeing’s 787-8. How do these compare?
Boeing starts the 787 production expansion in Charleston
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 18, 2025, © Leeham News: In our July 16 Article “ Boeing ponders 16/mo production rate for 787,” we concluded that Boeing needed to expand its present 787 plant in Charleston, South Carolina, to reach a rate of 16 Dreamliners per month before the end of the decade.
The Charleston Post and Courier reported on August 9th that Boeing has started the $1 billion expansion of the Charleston site. The article presents a Boeing rendering of the expanded site with the planned new buildings.
Figure 1 shows the rendering where we have marked the added buildings and site expansion.
Figure 1. The Boeing 787 production site south of the Charleston International Airport. Source: Boeing.
The new FAL building is essentially a copy of the present FAL, doubling the final assembly line capacity for the 787. Boeing has reached rate seven and plans to be at rate 10 per month next year.
The expansion is planned to be finished in 2028, after which Boeing will have the facilities to reach a rate of 16 787 per month.
P&W pursues “Industrial 4.0” with GTF engine improvements
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 18, 2025, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney’s long slog in fixing one technical problem after another with its marque PurePower Geared Turbo Fan engine isn’t over yet. It won’t be for another couple of years.
But during the Paris Air Show in June, those LNA talked to were optimistic that the end of the problems is in sight. And they are surprising optimistic about how well PW managed through the crisis and prospects for the future.
Top people at two firms that advise airlines and lessors on engine selection and maintenance contracts told LNA that for all the grief the GTF caused over the years, including hundreds of Airbus and Embraer aircraft grounded while awaiting new engines, PW gained a lot of traction by working with customers to mitigate revenue and cost losses.
That’s not to say that all are satisfied with PW’s response to the years-long series of disruptions. However, one advisory firm leader told LNA that PW’s Advantage GTF (the latest, advanced version, not yet entering service) will have airlines “flocking” back to PW if the engine performs as advertised.
The Advantage GTF will have 3%-4% more thrust and better fuel economy than the preceding GTF engines. Advanced materials, powders, and parts are expected to be more durable than those used in previous engines.
A revealing side note: these same advisors criticized the response from GE Aerospace for being less than cooperative and for not providing enough mitigation responses to shorter on-wing times for the CFM LEAP engine.
Pratt & Whitney’s Asheville (NC) “Industrial 4.0” plant aims to capitalize on digital, advanced manufacturing. Credit: Pratt & Whitney.
PW also has spent more than $1bn on what it calls an industry 4.0 production plant in Asheville (NC).
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 15, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about recent ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New project talks about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. Before we start the discussions, we outline the process to certify a transport category aircraft under the US FAA 14 CFR Part 25 regulations and how it relates to the Figure 1 plan.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.