Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Safran raises full-year guidance on record LEAP output and booming engine aftermarket
By Tom Batchelor. October 24, 2025, © Leeham News:
A strong civil engine aftermarket and a record number of LEAP deliveries saw Safran achieve a stronger-than-expected set of results for 3Q25 and the first nine months of the year.
Q3 2025 revenue stood at €7.85 billion ($9.13 billion), up by 18.3% compared to Q3 2024 – and an increase on the €7.59 billion-average Q3 revenue analysts had been expecting.
Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 amounted to €22.62 billion, up 14.9% year-on-year.
As a result, the French aerospace group said on Friday as the results were published that it was raising its full year guidance across all metrics.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 13. Preliminary Design Review, PDR.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
October 24, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. Today’s topic, the Preliminary Design Reviews, PDRs, are marked in the chart.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan with PDR marked in time. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
MTU Aero Engines revenue and earnings up sharply amid strong OEM business
By Tom Batchelor. October 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Revenue and earnings at MTU Aero Engines grew sharply in the first nine months of 2025, with a strong commercial engine and maintenance business driving profitability at the German-headquartered supplier to Airbus and Boeing.
Adjusted revenue climbed 19% from €5.3 billion ($6.15 billion) to €6.3 billion, when comparing January-September 2024 to the same period in 2025.
The company’s adjusted operating profit grew by 34% to €995 million (versus €744 million January-September 2024).
CFO Katja Garcia Vila told analysts on Thursday’s earnings call that “positive market trends remain intact”, as she forecast “significant opportunities outweighing existing challenges” for the near term.
Airbus’ A321neo, A321LR or A321XLR?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus’s A321 was launched in November 1988, around the time the original A320 entered service. Delivery to the first A321 customer, Lufthansa, was in January 1994.
The initial sales of the A321 were modest, with deliveries of the variant languishing between one and three aircraft per month for the first ten years. It wasn’t until after the launch of the A320neo/A321neo in 2010 that sales climbed to 10 per month, 20 years after the first delivery. This shall be compared to the 30 per month after another 10 years in 2024.
The smaller A320 was at 24 per month by 2010 and then touched 35 per month in 2019 before it started to cede the market to the A321neo after COVID. Deliveries in 2024 were at 19 per month.
With the A321 dominating Airbus deliveries from 2022, the question is: which variant of the A321 is suitable for what routes? Does a “misuse” of an A321LR or XLR on short to medium routes mean an operational cost loss compared to a standard A321neo?
We look into the different A321neo variants and compare their capacities and operational costs in this series.
Summary:
- The Airbus A321 started life with low sales, the market preferring the smaller A319 and A320. One of the reasons was the large jump in capacity between the A320 and A321, more than 40 seats.
- By the introduction of the A320neo series, the market had developed to higher capacities. After COVID, the A321neo took over as the dominant A320 range variant.
Impact on Boeing’s China deliveries under Trump’s latest tariff tiff will be minimal
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: President Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade war with China when he announced on Oct. 12 that a 100% tariff would be levied on imports to the US.
This round was a retaliatory measure against China’s restrictions on exporting rare earth materials to the US and other countries. Rare earth materials are principally sourced from China and are critical to the aerospace industry, among others.
Trump said he also might block deliveries from Boeing to China’s airlines and lessors, as well as key parts, components, and engines. A large portion of China’s current fleet is Boeing aircraft. Blocking spare parts could eventually ground in-service Boeing airplanes due to parts shortages.
US-made engines and a variety of parts and systems for China’s C909 and C919 airliners are also sourced from the US. Airbus aircraft operated by China’s airlines may also have US parts and components that could be blocked if Trump takes this action.
There was initial hand-wringing among some media that blocking deliveries would hurt Boeing. However, when Boeing’s delivery stream to China for the balance of Trump’s current term (which ends on Jan. 20, 2029) is examined, it’s clear that, while annoying, Boeing actually has few airplanes scheduled for delivery.
Deliveries to China represent between 3% and 5% of total deliveries through the balance of Trump’s term.
The China delivery data is from Cirium, as of Oct. 7. The total deliveries through 2029 are estimates from Bernstein Research.
Boeing deliveries to China represent a small single-digit percentage of total deliveries through the remainder of President Trump’s term. Credit: Leeham News.
Airbus sticks to 2027 EIS for A350F
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 22, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus reaffirmed its goal for the A350F to enter service in the second half of 2027, despite some customers telling LNA that EIS may slip to 2028. The new certification environment prompted by the Boeing 737 MAX crisis may mean a longer-than-anticipated review by Europe’s regulator, EASA, customers say.
Crawford Hamilton, head of freighter marketing for Airbus, said that, so far, the 2H2027 EIS remains the target.
Rendering of the Airbus A350F. Assembly of the first two airplanes is underway. First flight is expected next year, and the entry-into-service goal is the 2H2027. Credit: Airbus.
“I’ve spoken to both the chief engineer and the deputy program manager and the program manager about this recently because there are a lot of things in the rumor mill going around about this,” Hamilton said. “The answer is no, the basic structure there for the requirements that we’ve met is all still there. It’s the same as it was, and we are going toward that to meet the requirements from both the EASA and the FAA. So, as I stated, the EIS is in the second half of 2027 and remains so.”
Hamilton, who is no relation to this author, said that Airbus has worked with regulators since 2022 to understand the certification requirements.
He made his remarks at the Cargo Facts conference in Nashville (TN).
Blade-out design for CFM’s RISE; 2nd A320 line in Mobile
By Scott Hamilton
Arjan Hageman. Credit: GE Aerospace.
Oct. 22, 2025, © Leeham News: The Open Rotor engine and its evolution, the Open Fan, promise dramatically lower fuel consumption compared with evolutions of the ducted fan engine. The Open Rotor has counter-rotating fans, while the Open Fan has a single rotating fan with stators that do not rotate behind it, which can be adjusted or pivoted for maximum efficiency.
Open Rotor testing in the 1980s proved noisy, offered slower cruising speeds than conventional jet engines, and caused vibration that transferred to the vertical tails of the Boeing 727 and McDonnell Douglas MD-80 test beds. Questions about maintenance and concerns over blade failure were paramount.
Developers of the Open Fan, GE Aerospace, and Safran, under the CFM International brand, say objections to the Open Rotor design have been overcome. The noise is lower than that of the CFM LEAP engine, according to testing. The cruising speed is now projected to be comparable to today’s Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAXes. Maintenance durability, reliability, and dust ingestion testing aims to overcome entry-in-service maintenance shortcomings of the LEAP and competing Pratt & Whitney GTF engines.
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However, industry and airline officials LNA talks to aren’t yet convinced that blade out concerns have been resolved.
“We’re designing for blade-outs,” GE’s Arjan Hageman, vice president for the future of flight at GE, said in an interview with LNA earlier this month.
RTX Posts Steady Q3 2-25 As GTF Stabilization, Collins Strength, And Tariff Headwinds Define Results
By Chris Sloan
October 21, 2025, © Leeham News: RTX delivered a solid and steady third quarter, marked by broad-based growth, improving GTF maintenance output, and continued strength at Collins Aerospace—even as tariff headwinds persisted. Company sales rose 12% year-over-year to $22.5bn, or 13% organically, while adjusted segment operating profit increased 19%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin expansion. Net income attributable to common shareholders climbed to $1.9bn, up from $1.4bn a year ago.
Chairman and CEO Christopher Calio credited strong execution across all three segments for the performance, citing double-digit growth in commercial OE, aftermarket, and defense. RTX booked $37bn in new awards during the quarter—$23bn in defense and $14bn in commercial—lifting total backlog to $251bn, up 18% since the end of 2024.
With passenger traffic holding firm and OEM production trending higher, Collins and Pratt both benefited from robust aerospace demand. Calio said the company is raising its full-year outlook for adjusted sales and operating profit, supported by the ongoing production ramp and a stabilizing supply chain.
The conversation around the GTF program has shifted: improved MRO throughput and material flow replaced the usual focus on compensation and grounded aircraft, and for the first time in recent memory, the familiar “powdered-metal” refrain was absent from the call—an indication that Pratt’s recovery is turning a corner.
GE Aerospace Q3 2025 Earning Lifts Guidance On Record LEAP Output And Strong Services
By Chris Sloan
October 21, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace reported third-quarter results today, marking another period of broad-based momentum as the company raised its full-year outlook on stronger services and record engine deliveries.
“GE Aerospace delivered an exceptional quarter with revenue up 26%,” said Chairman and CEO Larry Culp Jr. “Given the strength of our year-to-date results and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we’re raising our full-year guidance across the board.”
Improved material flow from key suppliers—up more than 35% year-over-year—helped drive the surge. Services revenue rose 28%, while engine deliveries climbed 33%, including record LEAP production up 40% from a year ago. Culp said the company’s operational rhythm continues to compound in the right direction reflecting both supply chain stability and persistent demand for narrowbody powerplants.
The quarter also brought several high-profile commercial wins. Korean Air announced the largest fleet commitment in its history—103 Boeing aircraft powered by a mix of GE9X, GEnx and LEAP-1B engines—along with a long-term services deal. Cathay Pacific expanded its GE9X order, adding 28 engines to bring its total to more than 70 for 35 Boeing 777-9 aircraft. The GE9X program continues to advance testing and durability work even as Boeing’s 777-X certification slips further into 2026.
Culp emphasized GE Aerospace’s depth of experience and installed base, noting that the company now supports 78,000 engines in service and has logged more than 2.3 billion flight hours. “With seven commercial engine certifications in the last two decades, this is an experience-based business that keeps us close to our customers,” he said.
Chief Financial Officer Rahul Ghai said GE expects roughly 2,000 LEAP engine shipments in 2025 and steady GE9X deliveries. “Our volume assumptions for 9X have not changed since July,” he said. “We do expect 9X losses to more than double year-over-year as we think about 2026, which will offset some of the positive growth we’ll see from Services.”
Consultant Presses Embraer To Confirm Large Bizjet Plans
Oct. 21, 2025, © Leeham News: From our partners at AIN:
Embraer Executive Jets leader said company will take its time before taking its next step
October 16, 2025
Embraer this week reaffirmed that it is actively studying the case for entering the large-cabin business jet market. Speaking at its investors day event at the New York Stock Exchange, a leading consultant urged Embraer Executive Jets president and CEO Michael Amalfitano to confirm whether his group will step up to compete with Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault, and he didn’t rule out the move.
Embraer hasn’t produce the large cabin Lineage 1000 business aircraft for almost five years, but it is now contemplating a return to the heavy jet segment. Credit: AIN.
Dean Roberts, v-p for strategy, sustainability, and development with Rolland Vincent Associates, argued that the time is right for the Brazilian manufacturer to expand its portfolio beyond its Phenom and Praetor family of light and midsize jets. In his view, its U.S., Canadian, and French rivals aren’t fully addressing the market.
The case for Embraer to invest in the development of a business jet at the top end of the sector has to compete with the aerospace and defense group’s ongoing ambitions to directly challenge Airbus and Boeing in the race to dominate the next generation narrowbody airliner market.
The full story may be found here.