Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service
June 30, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace developed a huge engine for the Boeing 777X, the most powerful engine ever created. The GE9X tops out at 115,000 lbs of thrust.
The giant GE9X engine for the Boeing 777X generates 115,000 lbs of thrust. The human scale of the engine is illustrated here at a display at the Paris Air Show. Credit: Leeham News.
It’s had its development challenges. The 777-9, the first of the X family, was supposed to enter service in early 2020. Technical issues with the GE9X required removal of the engines from the test airplanes and a return to GE for fixes. This delayed flight testing by nine months. By then, certification of the 777X got caught up in the Boeing 737 MAX crisis; the 777X still is awaiting certification, which parties hope will come this year. Deliveries are now expected to begin next year.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, has 205 Xs on order, more than any other customer, out of 521 in total. He’s publicly complained about the initial test results of the GE9X and demanded engine maturity before he’ll accept delivery.
GE has used the six year delay in the program to attempt to satisfy this demand.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 27, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We have explored various methods to mitigate global warming throughout the series. Over the last few weeks, we have summarized the practical results we can expect from the different alternatives available to reduce global warming in air transport. We looked at the following:
- Alternative, lower-emission propulsion technologies.
- The industry’s typical improvement in fuel consumption over time.
- The improvements that SAF can offer by 2050.
- The different Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) that exist globally.
- And finally, what warming contrail reductions can achieve.
We have summarized what the first four actions can achieve by 2050 and presented the results in a table, Figure 1. Now we add what global warming contrail avoidance can do.
Figure 1. The effects of Actions 1 to 4 on CO2 and NOx counted as CO2e emissions by 2050. Source: Leeham Co.
Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety
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By Colleen Mondor
June 26, 2025, © Leeham News: On March 12, 2019, then-Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao and her staff flew from Texas to Washington (DC) on a Southwest Airlines 737 MAX. It was two days after the crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 302, the second devastating accident involving the 737 MAX.
In taking the flight, Chao showed not only her support for Boeing and Southwest, but even more so the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which steadfastly refused to ground the aircraft. As the pressure mounted, the agency stressed the importance of its methodical data-gathering process, which had begun months earlier with the October crash of Lion Air.
Chao also reassured the public, telling reporters “I want people to be assured that we take these accidents very seriously. We are reviewing them very carefully.” The day after her flight, President Trump announced that after conversations with Chao, the CEO of Boeing and Dan Elwell, the FAA’s acting administrator, his administration was grounding the aircraft. Elwell told reporters later that day, however, that the decision rested with the FAA. “So the decision is an emergency order to ground the airplanes,” he said, “and that is authority rested in the FAA with me.”
Chao’s flight centered her in yet another chapter of the ongoing saga between the Department of Transportation (DOT) and FAA. This was familiar territory for DOT which, since the FAA lost its independence in 1967, has often portrayed itself as the crucial, agent of flight safety in the U.S.
The most recent example was when current transportation secretary Sean Duffy captured media attention after the January 29 midair collision over Reagan National Airport. The FAA, which again had an acting Administrator, was relegated to secondary sound bites as Duffy declared, “We are going to take responsibility at the Department of Transportation and the FAA to make sure we have the reforms…to make sure that these mistakes do not happen again and again.”
Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 25, 2025, © Leeham News at Paris Air Show: The low or no emission propulsion discussion started at the 2014 Farnborough Air Show when Airbus’ E-Fan prototype flew in front of a surprised crowd. Everyone then thought that low-emission electric propulsion aircraft would be common before 2020.
It took 11 years and as many air shows before a certifiable battery-electric aircraft would fly again at an air show, this time at the 2025 Paris Air Show (Figure 1). Of the over 100 announced projects to develop and produce a battery electric passenger aircraft, it was the Alia CX300 from BETA Technologies that succeeded.
The story of BETA Technologies’ Alia CX300 is, in many ways, the story of the Ugly Duckling that grew to become a White Swan.
Figure 1. The BETA Alia CX300 battery-electric cargo version ready for its daily Paris Air Show flight. Source: Paris Air Show.
Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D
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By Scott Hamilton
June 23, 2025, © Leeham News, Paris: CFM International touts its Open Fan RISE engine as the wave of the future. (CFM is a 50-50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran.)
Rival Pratt & Whitney says evolution of its Geared Turbo Fan is the best engine choice going forward.
CFM’s Open Fan engine design called RISE. Credit: CFM.
Neither company will admit that it is also researching and developing a Plan B engine. For CFM, this is a conventional turbofan. For PW, this is a new Open Fan. But during the Paris Air Show, LNA confirmed that both have a Plan B engine in development.
PW has gone out of its way to dismiss the very idea of an Open Fan engine. Rick Deurloo, the president of Pratt & Whitney Commercial, won’t even talk about the “competitor.” Deurloo makes it clear—publicly, at least—that an evolution of PW’s Geared Turbo Fan (GTF) is the best solution for the next generation engine for the single aisle market, in its view.
Mike Winter, RTX’s Chief Engineer, dismissed the Open Fan as “sub-optimal” on a successor to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families. It involves too many installation compromises on this size aircraft, he says. RTX is the parent of PW.
But, says one person with direct knowledge, PW fully understands that if CFM is successful in solving all the challenges of an Open Fan and meets the publicly stated goal of improving fuel consumption by 20% compared with today’s GTF and CFM LEAP engines, PW’s gain of an evolutionary GTF won’t be competitive.
So, says the person with direct knowledge of PW’s activities, the development of an Open Fan alternative engine is being worked on as PW’s Plan B.
Furthermore, PW’s sister company, Pratt & Whitney Canada, publicly disclosed its development of an Open Fan engine in a briefing on Tuesday this week. This engine is for a new 70-100-seat aircraft designed by the start-up company MAEVE. PW is following PWC’s development.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 20, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We have examined different ways to lower global warming over the course of the series. Over the last weeks, we have summarized what practical results we can expect from the different alternatives we have to reduce global warming from Air Transport. We looked at the following:
- Alternative, lower-emission propulsion technologies.
- The industry’s typical improvement in fuel consumption over time.
- The improvements that SAF can offer by 2050.
- The different Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) that exist globally.
- Finally, what warming contrail reductions can achieve.
Pontifications: A Personal Note
By Scott Hamilton
June 19, 2025, © Leeham News, Paris: The big news for LNA at this Paris Air Show this week had nothing to do with aerospace companies.
On Tuesday, it was jointly announced by AIN Media Group and Leeham Co LLC, parent of LNA, that AIN is acquiring LNA. We expect the transaction to close next month, awaiting documentation from the lawyers.
Leeham Co LLC and its other business, Leeham Consulting, remains with my partner, Bjorn Fehrm and me. We also remain with LNA. For the first time since 1989, I will report to a boss.
Talk about a mental adjustment.
Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 19, 2025, © Leeham News at Paris Air Show: Boeing chose to scale down its participation at this week’s Paris Air Show out of respect for the victims of the Air India crash last week. This left Airbus and Embraer to announce new orders, with a total of 142 firm orders for Airbus and 60 for Embraer.
Outside the order activity for the three large airliner OEMs, it was a relatively quiet show, with few noteworthy announcements of advancements in areas such as Sustainable Aviation.
Figure 1. Airbus orders and commitments at the Paris Air Show. Source: Airbus.
AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis
From left, AIN Media Group Chairman Emeritus Wilson Leach; Leeham News Editor Scott Hamilton; AIN Media President Ruben Kempeneer; and Leeham News Aeronautical and Economic Analyst Bjorn Fehrm. Credit: AIN.
PARIS, JUNE 17, 2025 – AIN Media Group Inc (AIN), a global leader in aviation news, events and data, and Leeham Company LLC, a premier source for in-depth aerospace and airline industry insights, have reached an agreement in principle under which AIN will acquire Leeham News & Analysis (LNA), adding to AIN’s product portfolio. Completion of the transaction, anticipated to be in July, is subject to the execution of customary documentation.
For nearly two decades, Leeham News & Analysis has been a trusted authority, providing expert coverage of aircraft technology, economics, fleet planning, maintenance, repair and overhaul strategy, and market trends. The addition of Leeham’s specialized reporting and analytical expertise will enhance the depth and breadth of commercial aviation intelligence available to AIN’s global readership. Leeham News will continue to publish under its current brand.
AIN Media Group founder and Chairman Emeritus Wilson Leach commented, “The Board of Directors is committed to the expansion of AIN as an essential resource for the global aviation industry. The acquisition of Leeham News is a huge milestone towards achieving that goal. It is a win for Leeham News, a win for AIN, but most importantly—it is a win for our customers and for the global aviation industry, which now has wider access to the most specialized aerospace reporting and analytical expertise available.”
“Leeham News & Analysis has built an outstanding reputation for delivering sharp, insightful aviation reporting on the air transport and aerospace sectors,” said Ruben Kempeneer, president of AIN Media. “By bringing Leeham’s expertise into the AIN family, we are expanding our ability to provide readers with even more critical industry insights, expert commentary, and exclusive coverage of key aviation developments.”
Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2025, © Leeham News, Le Bourget, France: The Paris Air Show was supposed to be another step, however small, in Boeing’s way back from six years from crisis after crisis, safety and quality concerns, criminal investigations, Congressional hearings and existential threats following two fatal crashes of the 737 MAX and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Boeing wasn’t bringing any MAXes, 777X or 787s to the air show. There would be no awe-inspiring flight displays. The cost wasn’t worth it given Boeing’s billions of dollars in losses in recent years.
Nevertheless, Boeing planned low-key executive appearances and media events.
Air India flight 171 on its descent to a crash on July 12. Credit: Amateur video.
And then, four days before the show was to officially begin tomorrow, Air India flight 171 crashed, killing 241 of 242 people on board and at least three dozen on the ground where the 14-year-old 787-8 pancaked in to a densely packed residential and educational area only two kilometers from the airport.
Videos of the event showed the 787 using up almost all of the 11,500 ft runway to take off in a cloud of dust (presumably the overrun area), barely climbing a few hundred feet, dipping and climbing slightly again before smoothly descending into an explosive ball of smoke and flame on impact out of view of the cameras.
The pilot radioed a Mayday with the terse message reporting power problems with the GEnx engines on the plane.
Very quickly pundits, pilots, armchair experts and even former crash investigators began hypothesizing on what went wrong. Theories ranged from pilot error, misconfigured flaps, dual engine failure, electrical failures and more. The only thing missing was an alien ray from outer space.