Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
AIN, LNA to share select stories
By Scott Hamilton
July 18, 2025, (c) Leeham News: Now that AIN Media Group has completed the acquisition of Leeham News, I can tell our readers that we will begin to expand coverage at both outlets.
AINonline and LNA will share “previews” of select stories each outlet publishes, with links to the relevant site for the full story. There’s no “schedule” for doing so; the shares will be based on assessing the relevance to our respective readership.
We anticipate further resource-sharing going forward, which will be announced at the time we’re ready to launch these.
For now, here are some recent examples of AIN stories that we will pick up from AINOnline:
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 31, Conclusions.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 18, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We have done a Corner series on the state of actions to mitigate the global warming impact from Air Transport. Now, we start to summarize what we’ve learned.
During the series, we compiled tables describing the warming effect of air transport in 2024 and a calculation of the effect during 2050. We made two tables, one with the most probable effects, Figure 1, and one where we downplayed the non-CO2 effects to the maximum given in the Lee et al. 2021 study, to a 5% probability, Figure 2.
Figure 1. The effects of Actions 1 to 4 on CO2 and NOx, represented as CO2e emissions during 2050. Source: Leeham Co. Click to enlarge.
Before we summarize by examining the tables, we will discuss the additive effects of CO2 and non-CO2 warming over a given time period, as the different components don’t have the same decay time of their warming effects.
AIN Media Group completes the purchase of Leeham News & Analysis
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: AIN Media Group today completed the purchase of Leeham News & Analysis.
The acquisition was announced June 17 during the Paris Air Show.
AIN is a 50-year old privately held media company. It’s best known for covering business and corporate aviation and the future flight sector. LNA focuses on commercial aviation, specializing in airframe and engine Original Equipment Manufacturers, the supply chain and future flight concepts in commercial aviation.
Complementary news coverage strengthens both and brings resources to LNA to broaden its coverage. LNA’s experienced editors, analysts and writers remain in place and the focus of its coverage remains unchanged.
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Leeham Co. LLC and Leeham Consulting remain independently owned and operated.
GE Aerospace Soars on Commercial Momentum in Q2; Updates on GE9X, GEnx, LEAP and RISE
By Chris Sloan
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace posted a standout second quarter and first half of 2025, with Q2 profit up 65% to $2.4bn, total revenue climbing 21% to $11.0bn, and profit margin rising to 21.7%, up from 15.9% a year ago—a 37% improvement. The company paired its earnings release with a comprehensive Deep Dive Investor Update, initially slated for the Paris Air Show but postponed following the Air India crash.
“We’re proud to be underway on three out of every four commercial flights,” said Chairman and CEO Larry Culp. “CES (Commercial Engines & Services) has more than 49,000 engines in service and growing.”
The strong quarter was driven by three commercial tailwinds: a 29% surge in services revenue, a 45% increase in total commercial engine units, and a record-breaking order for more than 400 GE9X and GEnx engines from Qatar Airways—the largest widebody engine deal in GE’s history.
What’s the next new aircraft? Part 1
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Part 1 of 5
By Scott Hamilton
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Some urge Boeing to take the plunge “now” to launch a new airplane program.
Institutional knowledge is slipping away, these people say. Boeing hasn’t launched a new airplane since December 2003 (the 787), they note. The 737 MAX is selling at a poor second to the Airbus A320neo family. Boeing continues to lose market share.
This illustrates the variety of aircraft being discussed for the next decade or more. Boeing already decided to nix the Transonic Truss Brace Wing aircraft (#2). Credit: Leeham News.
On the other hand, Airbus is in no hurry to launch a new airplane program—or so it says. It can’t keep up with current demand.
Beginning today, LNA will take a five-part look at what the potential new airplanes and/or airplane technologies are for the coming decade or more. Having recently attended the Paris Air Show, we have the latest to supplement our years of study in this arena.
We look at 13 airplanes and concepts (we don’t examine eVTOLs and pure-battery-powered aircraft). These are numbered for identification—not for any ranking of likelihood of proceeding to a real program.
Today’s Part 1 identifies and describes the 13 aircraft.
Boeing ponders 16/mo production rate for 787
By Scott Hamilton
July 16, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is considering boosting the production of its 787 widebody jet to 16/mo, LNA has learned. This record rate would be at its Charleston (SC) plant and would exceed the previous high of 14/mo split evenly between its Everett (WA) facility and Charleston.
Boeing 787-9. Credit: Boeing.
The Charleston plant currently has enough space to produce 12 787s per month, a 2020 analysis by LNA concluded.
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At long last, Boeing appears near certification and EIS for 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
July 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is still months away from receiving certification of its newest, largest jet—the 777-9—and the company didn’t bring one of the test airplanes to the Paris Air Show last month. However, officials showcased the passenger and freighter models in an experience center during the major international event.
Justin Hale has the imposing title of Customer Leader & Senior Product Marketing Director for 777X and Production Freighter aircraft
The 777X comes in three models: the 465-seat 777-9; the 777-8F cargo airplane; and the 777-8 passenger model, which is an ultra-long-range (ULR) aircraft. The program was launched in 2013 at the Dubai Air Show (even though the first order, from Lufthansa Airlines, was placed earlier). Entry into service (EIS) was planned for the first quarter of 2020 with an unofficial goal of December 2019.
Flight testing revealed some technical issues with the 115,000 lb thrust GE9X engines. These required engine removal and return to GE Aerospace for redesign, delaying the program by nine months. Further flight testing revealed some uncommanded nose-down flight anomalies, requiring software redesign.
Then two fatal crashes of the Boeing 737 MAX in October 2018 and March 2019 revealed design and certification problems with the MAX. Scrutiny by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the MAX program expanded to include a comprehensive review of the work done up to that point on the 777X. The COVID pandemic further stalled flight testing and certification work. The engine-mounted thrust links developed cracks during further flight testing, adding to the delays.
Now, Boeing sees the program is finally on track for certification this year and EIS next year.
Related Story
Air India Flight 171 Preliminary Crash Report Is Unclear Regarding Pilot Actions
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 11, 2025, © Leeham News: India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau has issued the preliminary report of the crash of Flight 171.
The report indicates that the aircraft and flight crew were fit for flight and that the pilots were experienced, with the Captain having a total of 15,638 flight hours, including 8,596 on type, and the First Officer having 3,403 flight hours, with 1,128 on type.
The report documents the technical registration of the engine’s Fuel Cutoff switches, which transition from RUN to CUTOFF, remain at CUTOFF for 10 seconds, and then return to RUN. By then, the engine cores have slowed down below flight idle, with the engines delivering almost no thrust.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 30.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 11, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We feature a Corner series on the state of actions to mitigate the global warming impact from Air Transport. We try to understand why different developments have been slow.
In the last Corner, we correlated the growth of airliners between 2024 and 2050 and the growth in Greenhouse gas emissions of CO2 and NOx that would result. We also calculated the increase in warming from contrails based on the traffic increase by 2050. The results are in Figure 1.
We also discussed that the warming effects of CO2 are undisputed, whereas the impact of NOx and contrails is less mature in its complicated effects research. The performed research has a lowest and a highest warming probability. We will now do an “acid test” and see what their impact is when we apply their lowest probable effect on global warming.
Figure 1. The effects of Actions 1 to 4 on CO2 and NOx, represented as CO2e emissions by 2050. Source: Leeham Co. Click to enlarge.
It’s official: MTU’s engine leader named CEO of Airbus Commercial from Jan. 1; future of Open Fan and A220-500 shifts to him
The future of the CFM RISE Open Fan on the Airbus A320neo successor family loses its biggest proponent within Airbus with the retirement of Commercial Aircraft CEO Christian Scherer. His successor is CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a big supplier to CFM’s rival, Pratt & Whitney and the PW1100 GTF engine. Credit: Leeham Co.
By Scott Hamilton
July 10, 2025, © Leeham News: It’s official: Lars Wagner becomes CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Jan. 1. He will succeed current CEO Christian Scherer, who will retire after 40 years at Airbus.
Word of Wagner’s appointment leaked months ago.
Lars Wagner, CEO of MTU Aero Engines. Credit: MTU.
Wagner joins Airbus on Nov. 1 to begin a two-month transition. He is currently the CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a position he assumed in 2023. He joined MTU in 2015. Before that, he held various positions at Airbus. He is an engineer.
Wagner’s appointment may cast a question over GE Aerospace’s campaign with Airbus to choose the RISE Open Fan engine for the latter’s new single aisle aircraft intended to replace the A320neo family.
During the Paris Air Show last month, Airbus Group CEO Guillaume Faury said Airbus plans to decide on the engine to be selected for the A3XX around 2027-2028. A program launch target is 2030 with an entry-into-service target of 2038.