Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Fuel prices up sharply, but not sustained at record levels–yet
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
March 28, 2026, © Leeham News: Oil prices skyrocketed this month with the beginning of the 2026 Iran War.
Yet, as sharply as prices spiked, they are not yet a record relative to inflation-adjusted prices since the 1973-1974 OPEC-inspired oil embargo and other regional or global events, an analysis by LNA shows.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil prices topped $100/bbl. Brent crude briefly hit $197/bbl on March 20. On March 27, Brent topped $100.
Some airlines worldwide hedged fuel against dramatic price hikes. Our detailed analysis is below.
There are dire predictions that the prices could reach $170 or even $200/bbl if the Iran War continues. Bombing of Iran by the United States and Israel began on Feb. 26. Shortly after, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz all but ceased. Twenty percent of the world’s oil transits through this bottleneck. Some countries, such as Japan and China, obtain more than 90% of their oil via the Strait.
More than 300 tankers are trapped. Some were attacked by Iran. Hundreds of ships of all kinds are blocked on both sides of the 35-mile-wide Strait.
Figure 1. Source: About 750 ships were trapped at the peak. Iran is allowing limited traffic through. Seatrade-Maritime magazine.
The price of oil is being whipsawed as President Donald Trump mixes messages about the war’s progress, sometimes within minutes. Sometimes the war is “won,” but more troops and ships are being sent to the region. Trump threatened to increase bombing, attack Iran’s power stations, invade an island, and then take it back. Allies are needed to reopen the Strait, and then they are not.
Bjorn’s Corner: Blended Wing Body Airliners. Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 27, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We have started a series of articles about the Blended WingBody (BWB) as a potentially more efficient passenger-carrying airliner design than the classical Tube And Wing (TAW) configuration.
In the second article last week, we saw that the aircraft skin surface area, which creates the dominant skin friction drag, was smaller than that of the same capacity Boeing 767 for the 250-seat JetZero Z4, but not for the 165-seat Ascent1000, compared with the Boeing 737 MAX 8.
Both the Z4 and the Ascent1000 had a larger wingspan than the 767 and 737-8, but this is comparing future concepts with older aircraft. The Ascent1000 has folding wingtips to fit in the 36m gate, which a TAW replacement for the MAX 8 would also have. The Z4 and the 767 must use widebody gates.
Figure 1. The JetZero Z4 BWB. Source: JetZero.
Why do the BWBs have such large wetted areas when they lack a fuselage and empennage? It’s because they lack a tailplane! Why does a lack of a tailplane force a larger BWB wing?
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 9.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 26, 2026, © Leeham News: In our series on the state of alternative propulsion projects, we are looking at different hydrogen-fueled propulsion systems.
Hydrogen can be processed chemically in a fuel cell to produce electrical power, which is then coupled to an electrical propulsion system, such as in hybrids or battery-electric aircraft. The advantage is that the system eliminates inefficient batteries that kill these systems.
Figure 1. The 100-seat fuel cell airliner is now Airbus’ ZEROe alternative. Source: Airbus.
The other alternative is to burn hydrogen in a gas turbine’s combustor. The advantage is that we keep the high power-to-mass ratio of a gas turbine, but with a heavier, more complicated fuel system, and use a lighter fuel than Jet Fuel/SAF.
We first dive deeper into the fuel cell-based variant.
Commercial Engine OEM: Not for the faint of heart. Or the cash-poor.
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By Karl Sinclair
Updated with March 20, 2026, oil prices.
March 23, 2026, © Leeham News: Airlines and lessors around the world are clamouring for their aircraft, which have been ordered and scheduled for delivery years in advance.
As the Trump Administration begins to cobble together an economic plan to combat rising oil prices due to the Iran war, this is especially true in the narrow-body segment, where fuel-efficient aircraft are badly needed.
The IATA fuel price monitor has jet fuel selling at $197/bbl for the week ending March 20, 2026, which applies more pressure on OEMs to deliver aircraft to customers. This is up from a low of $93 a barrel just five weeks prior.
Source: IATA.
While both aircraft manufacturing behemoths, Airbus (AB) and Boeing (BA), struggled to meet their respective master production schedules, one common thread emerges that affects both in the same manner:
Engine makers cannot keep up, even in the best of times.
Across the globe, all the engine producers face their own supply-chain and technology issues. It does not matter if the producer is North American-based, European, or Asian.
Powerplants are a tricky proposition, even for the most established engine-maker.
This begs the question:
Why doesn’t someone new enter the market and pick up the slack in production? If not someone new, how about a current aviation industry corporation, with an installed engineering base, who can invest and transition into commercial engines?
Open Forum, Week of March 23
LNA’s Comments Open Forum allows Readers opportunities to comment about any post (note, we said “Post”, not any “Topic”). All comments will be held for review and Moderation per our new policy. The Open Forum enables Readers to Comment on paywall articles (to the extent the paywall preview is open to all readers).
Maintain civility and follow Reader Comment rules.
A new Open Forum will be posted weekly.
Bjorn’s Corner: Blended Wing Body Airliners. Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 20, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We have started a series of articles on the Blended Wing Body (BWB) as a potentially more efficient design for passenger-carrying airliners than the classical Tube And Wing (TAW) configuration.
In the first article last week, we established that it’s not about getting more lift during the efficiency-deciding cruise phase; it’s about reducing the drag that must be countered by engine thrust.
The drag in cruise is essentially decided by the air friction drag against the aircraft’s outer skin, called the wetted surface of the aircraft, and the induced drag, which is decided on how wide the aircraft is where there is lift generated. The reason is the high pressure below the wing will push air towards the wingtips to circulate to the low pressure above the aircraft, causing the global circulation around the wingtips of an aircraft.
Figure 1. The JetZero Z4 Blended Wing Body 250 passenger concept. Source: JetZero.
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 8.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 19, 2026, © Leeham News: In our series on the state of alternative propulsion projects, we have analysed electric hybrid projects and found that these do not make for an operationally acceptable airliner. They are more expensive in production, thus in purchase, and their operational costs are not lower than the aircraft they shall replace.
Projects analyze hybrids after realizing that battery-electric airliners are too limited in range. But soon, the problem areas of hybrids become clear. The studies then swing to hydrogen propulsion systems.
Figure 1. The Airbus ZEROe hydrogen-fueled concepts for a future airliner. Source: Airbus.
These have new technical challenges but produce aircraft with operationally acceptable range. We now examine the various concepts for hydrogen-fueled propulsion and outline their challenges and capabilities.
Change Incorporation, Configuration Control, and the High Cost of Getting It Wrong
Editor’s note: Boeing spent years doing rework on the 737 MAX and the 787 after the former’s grounding following two fatal crashes and the latter’s production flaws. “Shadow factories” began the 737’s rework after the 21-month grounding was terminated in November 2020. The last of 450 airplanes was delivered in 2025. Deliveries of the 787 were suspended in October 2020; 110 aircraft needed rework. The last of this inventory was cleared in 2025. This work is also known as “Change Incorporation.” Thirty-five 737 MAX 7s and 10s have been built and await certification, which idepends on design changes that must be retrofitted once the Federal Aviation Administration signs off. Change incorporation took 3-4 months for the 787s and was measured in months for the 737s.
More than 30 777-9s have been built while this program awaits FAA certification. This, too, will require Change Incorporation. Boeing has not revealed what changes the FAA will require, although revised flight control software is known to be one element. Nor has Boeing revealed how long Change Incorporation for the 777-9s will take.
LNA’s news team explains what Change Incorporation is, how it is undertaken, and the implications for the 777-9s in inventory.
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By the Leeham News Team
March 18, 2026, © Leeham News: In the commercial aviation industry, building aircraft before the type certificate is formally issued is not unusual. It is an economic necessity.
Undelivered Boeing 777-9s (among other aircraft) are lined up in open-air storage in this undated 2025 Google Earth photo of Paine Field, Everett (WA). The 777s are the “green” airplanes, though more are also painted in other colors.
Launching a production line months or years before final regulatory approval allows manufacturers to meet early delivery commitments, recoup development investment more quickly, and maintain customer relationships. But this strategy carries a profound and often underestimated technical liability: when the approved design specification continues to evolve through flight test, the already-built airframes must be brought into conformance with the final certified configuration. This is the essence of the Change Incorporation process.
The Boeing 777X program offers the most current illustration of this challenge. As of early 2026, Boeing has assembled more than 30 777-9 airframes, all built to early-production standards, while the aircraft’s type certificate is still in progress.
At the same time, the January 2024 in-flight separation of a door plug from Alaska Airlines Flight 1282—an event traceable directly to failures in Boeing’s parts removal and reinstallation process—has thrown the Change Incorporation process into the spotlight.
These two stories are connected by a single systemic thread: the consequences of inadequate configuration discipline in a complex, multi-stakeholder manufacturing environment.
Boeing says 1Q deliveries will be lower than forecast, but will catch up later
By Scott Hamilton
Jay Malave, EVP and CFO of The Boeing Co. Credit: Boeing.
March 17, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s deliveries in the first quarter may be lower than originally forecast, but will catch up throughout the remainder of this year, the company’s chief financial officer said today.
Jay Malave said that a quality defect on the 737 line affected about 25 airplanes. The defect was spotted by Boeing and involves scratched wiring traced to a miscalibrated machine at a Boeing facility.
“We’ve got about a population of about 25 aircraft that are impacted by that, so they’ll have to undergo some level of rework,” Malave said. “You’re talking around three days of rework, so not a significant amount. We have resumed deliveries as of last week. The impact here is really one of timing.
“We’ll see about 10 aircraft we were expecting to deliver around 120 737s in the first quarter, so we’ll slip about 10 of those deliveries into the second quarter. [The impact is] fairly limited in the grand scheme of things.”
Deliveries of the 787 will be slower and lower than hoped due to the timing of certification for premium-class interiors.
Iran war threatens Boeing in more ways than just airliner orders
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Editor’s note: When LNA is asked about the progress of Boeing’s recovery, we always express a caveat before answering: It depends on events outside Boeing’s control. The Iran war is just such an event.
By the Leeham News Team
March 17, 2026, © Leeham News: The paradox at the heart of modern commercial aviation is that the materials engineered to insulate airlines from oil price volatility are themselves creatures of the petrochemical complex.
Boeing’s 777X and 787 programs, with their heavy use of composites, face high risks of disruptions and costs due to the Iran War. Source: Boeing.
Carbon fiber composites reduce fuel burn by 20% over legacy aluminum airframes. Yet the polyacrylonitrile precursor fiber, the epoxy matrix resins, the autoclave energy—the entire manufacturing stack—runs on oil. When the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed on Feb. 28, it did not merely threaten jet fuel supply chains. It aimed directly at the raw material foundation of Boeing’s two most consequential programs: the 787 Dreamliner and the 777X.
Airbus faces similar challenges for the A350. A major Boeing composites supplier, Toray Industries, is used in secondary structures, and the impact is far smaller. US-based Hexcel is a major composites supplier to Airbus through its European operations.
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