Leeham News and Analysis
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Dubai Air Show: 777X, flight demos.
From our partners at AIN:
Nov. 25, 2025, © Leeham News: LNA’s partner AIN attended the Dubai Air Show and has now posted videos from the event. There are also two unrelated stories about the US Federal Aviation Administration’s efforts to modernize the Air Traffic Control system.
Videos from the Dubai Air Show, and more:
AIN Reporting
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
November 20, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, we started last week by discussing what happened after the trigger by the Airbus E-fan flight in 2014 and the introduction of the Tesla Model S car two years before. The alternative propulsion aircraft projects that followed had a rocky path. They followed the Gartner Hype-curve, Figure 1.
There were hundreds of projects announced, more or less serious. A few of these came to producing hardware, and flew test flights, then stopped. Most stayed as PowerPoint presentations and fancy renderings, promising capabilities that were not possible to realize. The result was that we passed the Peak of Inflated Expectations and entered the Trough of Disillusionment. Investors fled to AI, and projects froze or stopped.
Figure 1. The Gartner Hype-curve. Source: Gartner Inc.
By 2025, we are in the Disillusionment phase. As there are signs we can now enter a phase of real, sustainable progress, it’s timely to take stock of where we are and what progress we can expect over the next decade.
To understand why progress has been so difficult, after explaining that learnings from Cars are not transferable last week, we start by focusing on two components that we find in every alternative propulsion concept, the Electric Motor and the Battery system. Of the two components, the motor is the most straightforward to develop and certify for an aircraft. Still, we have only limited progress so far, and we detail why in today’s article.
The Battery System is the most challenging component for alternative propulsion aircraft, both in development and in use. We will spend next week’s article detailing why and how it has slowed down progress so far, and how this can change going forward.
Airbus dominates orders, commitments on Day 2 of Dubai Air Show
Nov. 18, 2025, © Leeham News News: Airbus notched orders on Day 2 of the Dubai Air Show. Boeing announced a small deals today.
The European OEM gained a new customer, flipping from Boeing, with a major deal from flydubai. Flydubai signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 150 A321neos.
Etihad Airways ordered six A330-900s, becoming a new A330neo customer. The carrier also ordered seven more A350-1000s, bringing its total for the type to 27, and three A350Fs, for a total of 10 aircraft.
Etihad also announced the commitment to lease nine A330-900s from Avolon.
Air Europa signed an MOU with Airbus for up to 40 A350-900s. It becomes a new A350 customer. The airline’s long haul fleet is currently Boeing 787s.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered six more A350-900s.
Boeing dominates Dubai Air Show opening day (Updated with additional news)
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Despite Boeing saying it was going to concentrate on outlining a path for certification of the 777X at the Dubai Air Show, the company dominated the opening day with new orders.
Embraer also announced a few orders at the show.
Airbus was a no-show for commercial deals on opening day.
Emirates Airline announced an order for 65 777-9s, with a list price value of $38bn. It has rights to change the order to the 777-8 or the stretch 777-10, should Boeing decide to proceed with this model. Emirates president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to stretch the 777 into a larger capacity -10 model. Nominally the -9 seats 465 passengers, which would likely be much lower in Emirates’ premium configuration.
“Emirates’ latest agreement with Boeing also provides strong backing for Boeing’s feasibility study to develop the 777-10, a larger variant of its 777X family,” the airline said in a statement.
After Airbus discontinued the giant A380, Clark has been vocal that a plane larger than the 365-seat A350-1000 or the 465-seat 777-9 is needed. Airbus years ago evaluated stretching the -1000 into a “-2000” to match the size of the 777-9 but decided then the market couldn’t support the airplane.
GE Aerospace supplies the engines for the 777-9. It says there is enough reserve power to accommodate a 777-10. Rolls-Royce powers the A350-1000 with its 97,000 lb thrust Trent XWB 97. It’s unclear if this engine could power a -2000.
Regardless, if Boeing proceeds with a 777-10 and Airbus proceeds with an A350-2000, Boeing will still dominate the Very Large Aircraft sector (+400-seats). The -2000 would be significantly smaller than the 777-10.
Ethiopian Airlines committed to purchase 11 additional 737 MAX jets.
Emirates was expected in some quarters to finally be ready to place an order for the A350-1000.
Dubai Air Show, Day 1: Boeing’s 777X; Anticipated orders
Boeing Insists 777X Widebody Is Worth the Wait
By Charles Alcock • Managing Editor
Charlotte Bailey • Writer
Nov. 16, 2025, © AIN: Twelve years since Boeing launched the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Airshow, the OEM is back on-site with both its 777-9 test aircraft and a renewed confidence that delays to the protracted certification schedule are finally over.
With Boeing continuing to steadily work through FAA type inspection authorization (TIA) test phases, head of airline marketing for the 777X Justin Hale has a “high confidence” the airplane will enter service by 2027, with certification forthcoming as soon as 2026, he told reporters during a briefing on the eve of the Dubai Airshow on Sunday.
The full story may be found here.
Consultant Presses Embraer To Confirm Large Bizjet Plans
Oct. 21, 2025, © Leeham News: From our partners at AIN:
Embraer Executive Jets leader said company will take its time before taking its next step
October 16, 2025
Embraer this week reaffirmed that it is actively studying the case for entering the large-cabin business jet market. Speaking at its investors day event at the New York Stock Exchange, a leading consultant urged Embraer Executive Jets president and CEO Michael Amalfitano to confirm whether his group will step up to compete with Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault, and he didn’t rule out the move.
Embraer hasn’t produce the large cabin Lineage 1000 business aircraft for almost five years, but it is now contemplating a return to the heavy jet segment. Credit: AIN.
Dean Roberts, v-p for strategy, sustainability, and development with Rolland Vincent Associates, argued that the time is right for the Brazilian manufacturer to expand its portfolio beyond its Phenom and Praetor family of light and midsize jets. In his view, its U.S., Canadian, and French rivals aren’t fully addressing the market.
The case for Embraer to invest in the development of a business jet at the top end of the sector has to compete with the aerospace and defense group’s ongoing ambitions to directly challenge Airbus and Boeing in the race to dominate the next generation narrowbody airliner market.
The full story may be found here.
Odds and Ends from Boeing, Textron, China and the US DOT
By the Leeham News and AIN Teams
July 30, 2025, © Leeham News: It’s time for a few odds and ends in aerospace.
- Boeing and tariffs.
- Textron and the small cargo airplane SkyCourier.
- China certifies the first eVTOL.
- The DOT watchdog focuses on the Newark ATC meltdowns
Boeing on tariffs
Boeing is optimistic that evolving tariff policy by the Trump Administration will continue to exempt aerospace products.
On the Boeing earnings call on July 29, CEO Kelly Ortberg said Boeing previously estimated the impact from tariffs imposed by the US on imported parts would be about $500m.
“One of the key areas for us is the equipment we import from Japan. Getting this Japan [tariff] agreement in place will be helpful for us going forward. We understand that to include zero-for-zero, no input tariffs.
“We still need to see what happens with Italy. We import some fuselage components from Alenia in Italy, so hopefully that will also result in zero-for-zero. My understanding is that is the kind of the baseline negotiation strategy as they go through these bilaterals that we will end up in a zero-for-zero, but [there is] still work yet to do,” Ortberg said.
The trade agreement negotiated in the first Trump Administration between the US, Mexico and Canada is called USMCA. Ortberg said this agreement is very important because of the amount Boeing imports from Mexico and Canada. The second Trump Administration upended the USMCA with new tariff demands.
“As they revisit that USMCA, hopefully, that stays in the same trade situation that we’re in today. We don’t see additional tariffs going forward. But if we continue to see this zero-for-zero, I think we’ll be able to beat that $500 million bogey that we’ve established here.”
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 32. Epilogue.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 25, 2025, ©. Leeham News: In October last year, we began a series on how air transport is performing against the emission goals for the year 2050.
The ambition to reduce and eventually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions began in earnest 11 years ago, when Airbus flew the Airbus E-Fan at the 2014 Farnborough Air Show (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The Airbus E-fan flying at the 2014 Farnborough Air Show. Source: Wikipedia.
The result of this inspiring flight, which utilized technology that emitted no CO2 or other greenhouse gases (if the batteries were charged with green electricity), was an avalanche of projects from established players as well as upstarts. The optimistic view was that there was a solution to the emissions from airliners.