The data behind Emirates’ choice of 787-10

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

November 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Yesterday we outlined the qualitative reasons why the Boeing 787-10 was selected for Emirates’ medium-range routes. Now we put figures behind the words.

We will quantify the weight and drag consequences of the tighter packaging of the 787 and discuss what it’s smaller wing means in field performance from a hot Dubai International Airport.

We use our airline performance model to give us the data, flying the aircraft over typical routes.

Summary:

  • The A350-900 was designed for flights up to 15 to 20 hours.
  • To make these bearable, Airbus decided to offer 18-inch seat width in the nine abreast economy cabin.
  • Boeing went another route. It offered a slightly narrower fuselage and let the airlines decide between eight or nine abreast economy.
  • Only Japanse ANA and JAL chose the base layout with eight abreast economy (and ANA has since switched to nine abreast economy for new deliveries).
  • The result is an aircraft with lower empty weight and fuel burn (everything else being equal).
  • For the 787-10, Boeing combined the tighter packaged fuselage with a wing optimised for flights up to 12 hours.
  • The 787-10 consequently beats the A350-900 on efficiency for shorter routes.

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Historic day at Dubai Air Show

Nov. 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It was an historic day for commercial aviation at the Dubai Air Show.

Airbus and Indigo Partners announced an order for 430 aircraft (the A320neo family), a record in units and in value ($49.5bn).

Boeing announced a huge order from flyDubai, an affiliate of Emirates Airline, for 225 737 MAXes. Value: $27bn.

Parenthetically, CDB Leasing firmed up an order for 90 A320neo family members announced at the Paris Air Show.

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Egyptair signs for up to 24 CS300s at Dubai Air Show

Nov. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Despite the problems in the US over the Boeing trade complaint, or perhaps because of the resulting tie-up with Airbus, Bombardier has since landed two important deals for its C Series.

The first was an LOI for up to 61 (31 firm 30 option) from an unidentified European operator. Based on the announced list value, these are believed to be CS100s.

The latest comes from today’s Dubai Air Show from Egyptair, which announced an LOI for 24 (12+12) CS300s. Delivery dates weren’t announced.

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Boeing wins first day with big order at Dubai Air Show

Nov. 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In a stinging defeat for Airbus, Boeing won an order for 40 787-10s from Emirates Airline.

Airbus competed for the deal with the A350-900. Emirates previously canceled an order for 50 A350-900s and 20 A350-1000s, an embarrassment at the time. Losing this order was largely expected, but based on comments from airline officials earlier this year, it seemed that the order would be put off until next year.

Bloomberg News has this devastating report.

Unreported from this order is that it seems to indicate a changing strategy for Emirates.

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Emirates’ 615 seat A380, is it more economical?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

Nov. 11, 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Emirates Airline showed off its newly delivered two class A380 at this week’s Dubai Air Show. With a record 615 seats, this is the densest A380 that has been delivered by Airbus.

EK 615 seat A380Emirates have reached this record seat number by replacing the first class cabin (and showers) with economy seats. Part of the business area has gone as well. What remains on the Premium side are 58 of the well known lie-flat seats and the ubiquitous Emirates bar.

The aircraft is aimed at high density destinations which are reached within a 12 hours limit, therefore the aircraft has no crew rest facilities.

The question is, what improvements in seat-mile costs does this configuration bring and how does it stack up against a similarly configured Boeing 777-300ER or 777-9?

Will there be a change in the economical pecking order compared to the more classical long range configurations that we looked at December last year?

We used our proprietary performance model to find out.

Summary:

  • To be fair to all aircraft, we equipped them with similar high density two class cabins.
  • We also kept the ratio of business-to-economy seats the same for all cabins.
  • The result is high capacity workhorses that are used for flying passengers and cargo at sector lengths of up to 12 hours. Consequently, none of the aircraft have crew rest facilities.
  • We then looked at fuel efficiency, Cash Operating Costs and Direct Operating Costs for these long-haulers now given a mostly mid-haul work scope.

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Emirates’ mid-range choice

By Bjorn Fehrm

Nov. 10 2015, ©. Leeham Co: The Dubai Air Show is on its second day and there are no mega orders. The one that should have been, the mid-range requirement for Emirates Airline, has been postponed, not only to “next year” but for “another year.”

What is the reason? Are we seeing a widebody oversupply fueled by used Boeing 777s/Airbus A330s being available in the market “for very low prices,” as suggested by Delta Air Lines CEO Richard Anderson? Are these the first signs of a damping of an order bonanza which has been going on for five years? Will things be more quiet (or should we say normal) going forward?

We don’t think so. Emirates just want to make the right choice and the equation has got more complicated as it has been working the problem. And it is in no hurry.

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Pontifications: A380neo? Try A380TXWB. Dubai Air Show and other Odds and Ends

A380 Trent XWB

Click on image to enlarge. Airbus photo.

Nov. 9, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. Airbus last week launched its A380 flying test bed with the A350-1000’s Rolls-Royce Trent XWB 97,000 lb engine placed in the number two position.

The first thing that came to mind when I saw the photo was that if Airbus put three more engines on it, you’d have the A380neo. Or maybe call it the A380TXWB. Done and dusted, as they say in England.

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Pointifications: Wide-body orders; Bombardier’s $1bn

By Scott Hamiltn

By Scott Hamilton

Nov. 2, 2015, © Leeham Co. Boeing gets an order for up to 26 787-10s.

Airbus firms up options to an order for 30 A330s, added to 45 previously announced by the same customer.

Boeing announces an order for nine 787-9s.

For all the talk of a wide-body surplus, this is shaping up to be a good year for wide-body orders.

Through September, Airbus recorded 90 firm wide-body orders, all but three for the A330 family. Boeing recorded 152 during the same period (these are net figures). Not included are any of the orders listed above, which have yet to be recorded as firm contracts.

Based on the YTD-September figures and those above, Airbus has a 42% share of orders this year; Boeing has 58%.

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Pontifications: Airbus flies past Boeing in order race

By Scott Hamiltn

By Scott Hamilton

Sept. 7, 2015, © Leeham Co.: Airbus flew past Boeing in the annual orders race when the August numbers were reported last week by both companies.

With the order for 250 A320s finally firmed up by India’s Indigo Airlines (it was announced last year), and an order for 45 A330ceos announced by China, the outcome was clear.

Through August, Airbus now has a 66% market share of single-aisle orders. Boeing has a 60% share of wide-body orders, thanks to a boost from FedEx for 50 767-300ERFs. (Boeing reported 48 767 orders net of cancellations.)

But if you remove the FedEx orders and just look at passenger airplanes, Airbus edges out Boeing in the year-to-date wide-body market share.

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Pontifications: Casting eyes toward Dubai Air Show

By Scott Hamilton

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 31, 2015, © Leeham Co. September begins tomorrow and we’re only nine weeks away to the 2015 Dubai Air Show.

We’re looking to this event to be the last big opportunity for major airplane orders for this year. While it’s true that Airbus, Boeing and the other OEMs make a big year-end push to top off the order book, the Dubai show has become increasingly on a par with the Farnborough and Paris air shows, but focused on wide-body orders and program launches.

Eyes on the Dubai Air Show will be watching for what could be would be this year’s prize catch: whether Emirates Airlines will be ready to place the oft-talked about order for 50-70 Airbus A350-900s or Boeing 787-10s. (Some have floated an even higher number.) The other big item of interest: whether Airbus will launch the A380neo.

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