Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Trump tariffs beginning to hurt US aerospace companies; EU competitors to benefit
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
Sept. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: New policies by President Donald Trump in the first six months of his second administration in trade, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) are causing a what may become a significant shift in defense spending that will benefit European companies.
The added business could strengthen those that also participate in commercial aerospace, to the detriment of US companies, notably Airbus.
US companies that for decades were the major suppliers to allies are already beginning to see European countries redirect spending to EU firms. Following Trump’s imposition of high tariffs on certain EU countries and others on Aug. 1, US defense companies have been hurt. India canceled deliveries of Boeing 737-based P-8A Poseidons.
Figure 1. Boeing P-8, based on the commercial 737 NG. India suspended delivery of the P8 due to the Trump tariffs. Credit: Boeing. Airbus now proposes a rival airplane based on the A321.
Airbus, Rolls-Royce, MTU, and others expect to benefit from these changes. And, as these companies see more defense work coming their way, then—at least in theory—their commercial business will benefit from stronger balance sheets, profits, cash flow, and perhaps the corporations’ technology.
In an interview at the Paris Air Show in June, the consulting firm Accenture told LNA that it is beginning to see key trends and increases in the defense sector.
Figure 2. Spain and Switzerland canceled orders for the Lockheed F-35. Credit: Lockheed. Airbus stands to benefit, among other EU-based defense contractors.
“Obviously, things are changing in terms of the dynamics,” said Jeff Wheless, Growth & Strategy Research Leader at Accenture. “I think certainly from a NATO perspective, I think folks are increasing their spending.”
Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, said that Trump’s pressure on NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of their budgets paid off. For decades, NATO countries were committed to a 2% spending level, but often failed to meet this commitment.
“Europe is spending by far less money on defense acquisitions than the US,” said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury in response to an LNA question at the Paris Air Show. “It’s a ratio of one to four or one to five. On top of that, Europe is procuring a lot from the US. I think the message is loud and clear from the U.S. that Europe should take better care of its own security.”
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 28, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyze Airbus’s A330neo, how the different variants were developed, their sales, and their performance before and after the neo upgrade.
After examining the history of the A330-200 and its evolution into a neo version, the A330-800, we now assess its performance. We utilize our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to compare the performance of the A330-800 to Boeing’s smallest Dreamliner, the 787-8.
Figure 1. The A330-800, the very long-range A330. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-800 is an aircraft for especially demanding routes. It’s the only 8,000nm airliner in the 250-seat class.
- Our 787-8 comparison shows where the A330-800 has its advantage, on the world’s longest routes.
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 21, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyzed Airbus’s A330-300 and -900 over the last weeks, the mid-range Airbus that gradually developed into a credible long-range aircraft.
After examining the A330-300’s development into the A330-900, we now analyze the A330-200 and its neo version, the A330-800. Why was a shorter A330-200 developed and put into service four years after the A330-300, when in almost all other cases the next version is a stretch?
And why did this smaller A330 sell really well against the larger A330-300 when its neo version doesn’t? We utilize our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to analyze the A330-200 and -800. Then we compare the A330-800’s capabilities and efficiency with Boeing’s 787-8.
Figure 1. The A330-200, a model that sold almost half of all A330s until the A330neo was announced. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-200 was one of the airline world’s few successful shrinks from a base version. Normally, base versions get complemented with higher capacity versions, and shrinks are duds.
- The A330-200 and now the A330-800 compete with Boeing’s 787-8. How do these compare?
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 14, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyze Airbus’s A330-900, the larger of the A330neos. Last week, we examined the product improvements that Airbus will roll out in the coming years, including the latest increase in Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) and the resulting increase in range.
The A330 entered the market as a mid-range aircraft. With the launch of the A330neo and subsequent improvements, it is today a long-range aircraft that covers several trans-Pacific trunk routes.
How does the improved A330-900 stack up against the efficiency of the Boeing 787-9? We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to find out.
Figure 1. The A330-900 in the colors of Delta Airlines, a major operator of the model. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330 is tested on a challenging route, LAX to Shanghai, versus Boeing’s perhaps best long-ranger, the 787-9.
- Where Airbus can’t match the efficiency and cargo capacity of a 20-year younger 787-9, it can compensate with lower capital costs.
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 7, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus’ A330neo, as the A330-900, entered the market in 2018. It’s a major improvement of the A330ceo that entered the market in 1994 as a 270-seat 3,900nm mid-range aircraft.
The present A330-900 has gradually improved its sales, prompting Airbus to increase the production rate from the planned four per month to five from 2029.
With a typical 290-seat cabin, Airbus advertises a 7,300nm range for the 251t Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) version, quite a development from the original 212t A330-300. And now this is going to improve further from 2028, with a rise in the MTOW from 251t to 253t, together with other improvements.
Does this make the A330-900 into a trans-Ocean aircraft, and how does the improved version stack up against the Boeing 787-9? We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to find out.
Figure 1. The A330-900, a model that is selling better and better, 31 years after its introduction. Source: Airbus..
Summary:
- The Airbus A330 is like the proverbial cat; it has many lives. Just when the experts predicted it would slowly go away, it started selling again.
- In the version where it gets another MTOW hike, it can successfully cover transoceanic trunk routes.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 1.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 1, 2025, ©. Leeham News: Four years ago I did a series about aircraft development together with Henry Tam and Andrew Telesca. Both worked on the Mitsubishi Spacejet program. You can find the series here.
It was about the arduous task of developing and producing a certified aircraft for the FAA Part 23 standard and its EASA equivalent. The idea was to better describe what’s ahead for the many upstarts that wanted to develop 9-seat and 19-seat alternative propulsion aircraft.
Now we do a series about recent ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development calendar time by one-third or more. Is this realistic?
Figure 1. The A350 development schedule from December 2011. Source: Airbus.
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Airbus 1H2025 results: A solid first half except for 60 gliders
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 31, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus CEO Guillame Faury and CFO Thomas Toepfer presented the Airbus first half 2025 results yesterday. The Airbus performance is very much to plan, except there are 60 A320/A321 gliders standing on the aprons, missing engines.
“The lion’s share of these engines are CFM LEAPs, but Pratt & Whitney GTFs are also missing,” said Faury. “Our plan, supported by the engine OEMs, is to be at zero gliders by year-end”.
Except for delivering 60 A320/A321 less than planned, Airbus is executing to plan. “We are on plan with A320/A321 production. Finished airframes are standing waiting for engines,” continued Faury. “Overall, our divisions are on track with their actions and deliveries during the first half of 2025. Our guidance for 2025 is unchanged”.
What’s the next new aircraft, Part 5
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
July 31, 2025, © Leeham News: We wrap up our five-part series today on What’s the Next New Airplane in the coming decades. We now look at Airplanes 9-13 in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. The 13 airliners we look at in the series. Source: Leeham Co.
These are the (9) COMAC 929, (10) Eco-version of New Light Twin, (11) CFM Open Fan single aisle, (12) the Boeing 787 re-engine, and (13) the Airbus A350 re-engine.
What’s the next new aircraft? Part 1
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Part 1 of 5
By Scott Hamilton
July 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Some urge Boeing to take the plunge “now” to launch a new airplane program.
Institutional knowledge is slipping away, these people say. Boeing hasn’t launched a new airplane since December 2003 (the 787), they note. The 737 MAX is selling at a poor second to the Airbus A320neo family. Boeing continues to lose market share.
This illustrates the variety of aircraft being discussed for the next decade or more. Boeing already decided to nix the Transonic Truss Brace Wing aircraft (#2). Credit: Leeham News.
On the other hand, Airbus is in no hurry to launch a new airplane program—or so it says. It can’t keep up with current demand.
Beginning today, LNA will take a five-part look at what the potential new airplanes and/or airplane technologies are for the coming decade or more. Having recently attended the Paris Air Show, we have the latest to supplement our years of study in this arena.
We look at 13 airplanes and concepts (we don’t examine eVTOLs and pure-battery-powered aircraft). These are numbered for identification—not for any ranking of likelihood of proceeding to a real program.
Today’s Part 1 identifies and describes the 13 aircraft.
It’s official: MTU’s engine leader named CEO of Airbus Commercial from Jan. 1; future of Open Fan and A220-500 shifts to him
The future of the CFM RISE Open Fan on the Airbus A320neo successor family loses its biggest proponent within Airbus with the retirement of Commercial Aircraft CEO Christian Scherer. His successor is CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a big supplier to CFM’s rival, Pratt & Whitney and the PW1100 GTF engine. Credit: Leeham Co.
By Scott Hamilton
July 10, 2025, © Leeham News: It’s official: Lars Wagner becomes CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Jan. 1. He will succeed current CEO Christian Scherer, who will retire after 40 years at Airbus.
Word of Wagner’s appointment leaked months ago.
Lars Wagner, CEO of MTU Aero Engines. Credit: MTU.
Wagner joins Airbus on Nov. 1 to begin a two-month transition. He is currently the CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a position he assumed in 2023. He joined MTU in 2015. Before that, he held various positions at Airbus. He is an engineer.
Wagner’s appointment may cast a question over GE Aerospace’s campaign with Airbus to choose the RISE Open Fan engine for the latter’s new single aisle aircraft intended to replace the A320neo family.
During the Paris Air Show last month, Airbus Group CEO Guillaume Faury said Airbus plans to decide on the engine to be selected for the A3XX around 2027-2028. A program launch target is 2030 with an entry-into-service target of 2038.