Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

There's more to real news than a news release.

Odds and Ends: Boeing moves jobs from WA State; CSeries FTV 1; A350 power up; 787-9 assembly; 777

Moving jobs out of Washington: The Seattle Times has a story about last Friday’s announcement that Boeing is moving more engineering jobs out of Washington.

CSeries: Airliners.net had this photo over the weekend. The first flight is expected after the Paris Air Show.

Bombardier CS100 Flight Test Vehicle #1.

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Airbus has powered up the engines on the A350 for the first time. First flight is expected within weeks, likely before the Paris Air Show.

A350

Airbus photo.

Smaller jet demand: The smallest Airbus and Boeing jets have weak demand, reports Aviation Week. And we’re not just talking about the A319 and 737-700/7.

787-9 Assembly begins: It was a busy weekend, with all of the above and capped by the start of 787-9 assembly. The first three 789s will be built on the Surge Line at Everett.

777 Painting: We linked two stories last week, to KING 5 and to The Seattle Times, about the robotic wing painting for the 777 line. Here is a photo:

777 Automated Spray Method

Boeing photo

Boeing currently is only robotically painting wings going on even-numbered line numbers. Wings going on the odd-numbered lines are still painted by hand for now. Because the program is new, the programmers continue to adjust the software between the even- and odd-numbered line wings, and eventually all the 777 wings will be painted robotically.

The paint shop is big enough to accommodate 777X wings, including the folding wing tips. This, of course, implies the 777X will be assembled in Everett. It’s unclear where the wings will be built.

The robotic painting is part of the 777 Lean manufacturing begun in 2005, which in the entire process has enabled Boeing to boost 777 production to 8.3 a month within the same assembly line space.

While this is the highest twin-aisle rate Boeing has produced to-date, Airbus has been assembling A330s at rate 10/mo for some time and is considering going to rate 11. Boeing, of course, will be at rate 10 for the 787 by year end. Airbus long ago announced plans to go to rate 10 for the A350 four years after EIS, but John Leahy is already pushing for a second assembly line to accommodate A350-1000 demand.

 11 Comments

 Posted on June 3, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Odds and Ends: BBD’s CSeries leader; Antarctica; Irreverent

Bombardier’s head of CSeries: The Toronto Globe and Mail has this interview with Rob Dewar, the head of the CSeries program. Separately, the last of the CAST safety tests has been completed.

Diverting from aerospace: CNN has this piece about sailing in the Antarctica, which is on our Bucket List.

It’s Friday, it’s been a long week: We just want to be irreverent.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxlPKnufwU&w=420&h=315]

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Here’s a take on ancillary revenues.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3so6AJe4UQ&w=420&h=315]

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[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJheoLUtX_Q&w=560&h=315]

 

 4 Comments

 Posted on May 31, 2013 by

 Bombardier, CSeries

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Odds and Ends: Fixing the 787; PW GTF; ANA to retire 747s

Fixing the 787: Avionics magazine has a long article on fixing the Boeing 787 battery issues.

PW GTF: The Hartford Courant has a piece profiling the quiet nature of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine. While news articles talk about noise, this is pretty abstract for readers. Bombardier has the best, single source we’ve seen for noise illustrations, with several links within this site. Even that is somewhat abstract, so BBD has this link to compare noise with urban sounds.

ANA to retire 747s: They’ll be gone this year. JAL retired them in 2011. Good luck, Airbus, selling them the A380. ANA also returns the 787 to service Saturday.

  • We’re at Boeing today and tomorrow for Paris Air Show briefings. Look for 737 MAX and 777 (today’s model) postings. Everything else is embargoed to June 11 (Current Market Outlook) and June 14 (everything else).

 7 Comments

 Posted on May 29, 2013 by

 Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

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Boeing gets launch order for MAX 7

Boeing finally got a launch order for the 737-7 MAX, from Southwest Airlines.

Southwest converted 30 737-700 orders to the 737-7.

The 7 MAX competes with the Airbus A319neo and the Bombardier CSeries.

AirbusBBDBoeing

 20 Comments

 Posted on May 15, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Taking care of business at the airframe OEMs

The news yesterday the Boeing resumed delivery of the 787 is good news, not just for Boeing and the airlines, but for all the stakeholders.

Although Boeing did not stop or slow production of the aircraft during the grounding, had the grounding continued for six months instead of 3 1/2 we saw, Boeing may well have had to slow down the supply chain.

The 50 airplanes in the field are slowly returning to service. The last are to be carrying passengers by next month.

Now it’s back to taking care of business.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9-R9S1m4dA&w=420&h=315]

The launch of the 787-10 was pushed to the right during the grounding. We fully expect this launch to come soon, perhaps at the Paris Air Show. The 777X received its Authority to Offer last month. We anticipate formal launch by year end, perhaps at the Dubai Air Show with a huge order from Emirates Airlines. We also think there will be some commitments announced at the Paris Air Show, by Qatar Airways, which always likes to make a splash at the European event.

Production for the 787 is ramping up toward the 10 per month goal Boeing set for the end of this year, and despite skeptics (we included), it looks like this will happen. But Boeing needs to go beyond 10/mo to 14 to accommodate the 787-10 and demand for the current offerings. With a planned 2018 EIS for the -10, there’s plenty of time to bring the supply chain into line for this.

Over at Airbus, the A350 MSN001 has been painted and is prepping for handover to flight test.

Read more

 13 Comments

 Posted on May 15, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Odds and Ends: 777X features; progress on A350, 787-9 and CSeries

777X features: More details are emerging about the planned features of the Boeing 777X.

Progress, Progress, Progress: The CSeries prototype gets its tail number, the Boeing 787-9 is taking shape, and the first A350 has been painted.

Richard Branson in drag: this speaks for itself.

EADS North America on Sequester: The CEO, Sean O’Keefe, has this Op-Ed commentary on Sequester. He doesn’t pull punches.

 14 Comments

 Posted on May 13, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Conservatives attack ExIm Bank again; Embraer v Bombardier

Conservative tax groups are once again attacking the US Export-Import Bank and its funding of US exports, including Boeing aircraft.

ExIm was created during the Great Depression to support US exports. It get attention because Boeing is the most visible beneficiary. The think tanks believe ExIm financing amounts to corporate welfare–a position that is 180 degrees from their usual approach to corporations.

Delta Air Lines is leading corporate attacks because it contends that foreign airlines get preferential financing and put it at a disadvantage.

Delta says that carriers like Emirate Airlines hardly need ExIm support, and it has a point. But less well-capitalized airlines like LionAir certainly could use it. Some further reform may be needed; international rules to bring ExIm fees and interest rates to market rates were already adopted. Tightening eligibility may be fair.

Delta had this to say in an Op-Ed piece in Forbes. You have to click past the advertising page to read it.

But eliminating ExIm? We disagree, as we have written on several occasions. The think tanks would hand this market support over to Airbus, which benefits from the European Credit Agencies export financing and this wouldn’t go away. This would put Boeing and its supply chain at a disadvantage to Airbus in international sales.

Embraer vs Bombardier: Here’s an interesting article explaining how Embraer sees the market a bit differently than Bombardier.

 23 Comments

 Posted on May 8, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Odds and Ends: Avoiding risk; Avoid 787 goofs with 777X; Anticipation for the 777X; CSeries expectations

Avoiding Risk: Jetmakers avoid risk by revamping existing models.

Avoid 787 goofs with 777X: This Reuters article reports how challenging the brand damage has become with the 787 issues, and it’s not the first time we’ve heard the link.

Looking forward to 777X: Akbar Al-Baker didn’t say much during the grounding of the 787, but he’s back in the news now. He looks forward to the 777X but couldn’t resist complaining about the GE90 on the current 777. That’s odd: the GE90 has only been in service since the creation of the 777-300ER and is well regarded in the industry. But Al-Baker being Al-Baker–need we say more?

CSeries Expectations: Bombardier says first flight will be next month. Expectations are beginning to increase, according to this article.

 16 Comments

 Posted on May 6, 2013 by

 Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Odds and Ends: Boeing helps create new competitor; Home for the 777X; CSeries backlog

Mitsubishi MRJ: The Seattle Times has this profile of the Mitsubishi MRJ and Japan’s emerging role in global aerospace.

What particularly struck us was the narration about the benefits Mitsubishi gained from Boeing in designing and building airplanes. The next point is old news: the MRJ will use a metal wing and fuselage, not composite. Mitsubishi said long ago it would forgo a composite wing, and a metal fuselage was never in the cards for this small aircraft.

We recall that during the 2008  IAM 751 strike, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney sent an email to all employees justifying the need to cut costs because of the new competitors. We wrote at the time, Well no kidding: Boeing is helping create these competitors with its outsourcing. Although the MRJ is currently a 70-90 seat aircraft, a 100-seat version is envisioned. If these are a success, we certainly see the day when Mitsubishi will have ambitions for a 150-seat class of aircraft.

Thanks in no small part to The Boeing Co.

Building the 777X–in Everett? The Puget Sound Business Journal has this story trying to read the tea leaves where Boeing will build the successor to the popular 777-300ER.

Then there is this story from Reuters about the prospective launch of the 777X.

CSeries Backlog: Richard Aboulafia likes the design but otherwise has never had much good to say about the Bombardier CSeries. Take a read of this, Rich. (For those who don’t know, we’re good friends with Aboulafia and have a friendly and public debate over the viability of the CSeries future.)

 19 Comments

 Posted on April 24, 2013 by

 Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Tired of kerosene smell ingested into the cabin on start-up? Hope for this

In the November election, Washington State and Colorado voters approved recreational use of marijuana. As anyone who ever tried MJ knows (except a certain former President, who says he didn’t inhale), MJ has a sweet odor that is very distinctive.

Who has flown an airplane and hasn’t smelled that pungent odor of jet fuel being sucked into the cabin now and then during push-back and start-up (except maybe that former President, if he didn’t inhale then, either)?

Ballard Biofuel in Seattle may have the answer. Let’s all inhale.

 7 Comments

 Posted on April 17, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

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