Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
Updates on Airbus, Boeing events
Aviation Week has this long and detailed story about the Airbus A380/Qantas engine failure.
Qantas A380s remain grounded indefinitely.
KING 5 (NBC, Seattle) has this account of the Boeing 787 fire.
KIRO TV (CBS, Seattle) has this item about the FAA and the 787’s certification tests.
Flightglobal reports an FAA pilot was at the controls when the 787 fire broke out.
Airbus has its challenges, too
While headlines have understandably been focused on Boeing this week, Airbus has its problems, too. The Qantas A380 Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine uncontained failure continues to generate news stories. The QF 32 flight details still are emerging, and one–in an email we received today–gives a good example of “cascading failures” that can happen in an emergency.
Recall that the 787 ZA002 had a series of cascading failures following the fire in the electronics bay, the details of which have yet to be learned beyond some generalities. Here’s what we learned about the cascading failures associated with QF 32:
Another KC-X deadline passes
Today was supposed to be the day the KC-X contract was to get its go-ahead, but as has so often been the case, another deadline has come and gone.
The USAF suggests it will be done this fall, which is through December 20. We’ve previously written we believe the award will slip to the first quarter.
Meantime, here is an interesting story on the KC-X saga. Hat-tip to Flightglobal’s Steve Trimble for spotting this one.
Assessing 787 in-flight fire, Part 2
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times has this interview with 787 program head Scott Fancher about the in-flight fire incident Tuesday of 787 ZA002.
Fancher’s interview is clearly an effort to see the bright side of an event that shouldn’t have happened and which potentially will have serious, adverse affects on Boeing. The headlines are justifiably worrisome and the Wall Street analysts are weighing in with negative reports.
Many will see Fancher’s comments as trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, but in fact in an interview we did yesterday (Nov. 10) with KOMO Radio (Seattle), we noted there actually is a silver lining in the clouds that have gathered over Boeing.
Assessing 787 in-flight fire
There are plenty of news stories accessible through Google, so we won’t recap the incident here.
Here’s what we can add to the story at this time (06:30 AM PST, Nov. 10); we’ll update as needed.
Boeing says 787 deliveries will take longer than expected
Robert Stallard, aerospace analyst for RBC Capital Markets, met with Boeing execs and learned that 787 deliveries will take longer than expected, seemingly confirming reports last week from Flightblogger and Aviation Week.
Dominic Gates published this story Tuesday–just a short time before the 787 in-flight fire incident.
GEnx customers hit in 787 rescheduling
Here is a story we did for Commercial Aviation Online Tuesday, before the 787 in-flight fire.
Customers who ordered the GEnx engines are among those affected by the latest, potential Boeing 787 delivery rescheduling first revealed by CAO‘s affiliate Flightblogger, a review of Boeing’s backlog reveals.
Japan Air Lines, Korean Air Lines (KAL) and Air India each have indicated deliveries could be several months later than originally planned. JAL is looking at an additional three month delay, KAL up to 10 months and Air India up to five months. Each is a GEnx customer.
BOC Aviation orders A320s, touts ‘investment value’
Here is a story we did last week for Commercial Aviation Online:
BOC Aviation and Airbus announced 3 November an order for 30 A320s, with the companies touting the “investment value” and residual value in a press release detailing the orders.
“The announcement from BOC Aviation is another vote of confidence in the long-term appeal of the A320 Family. It works well for the financial community based on its wide operator base, proven operating economics and strong residual values,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer Customers, Airbus, is the press release.
“A320 Family aircraft are a good fit as they have proven economics and meet both our investment targets and our customers’ operating goals,” said BOC Aviation CEO Robert Martin in the press release.
The residual value of the A320 family has come under doubts from lessors, appraisers, airlines and financiers in response to the possibility that Airbus will proceed with the New Engine Option for the A320. Some lessors, notably AerCap and Aviation Capital Group, have publicly expressed concerns about the residual value impact of the A320 NEO on the A320 current generation (A320CG); AerCap early this year said it would not order more A320s until Airbus made a decision on NEO. AerCap has been an exclusive Airbus customer when it comes to new airplane orders.
Elections results and the KC-X
The election results could have a major affect on the KC-X tanker competition.
The headlines are:
- The Republican takeover of the House means Norm Dicks (D-Boeing/WA) loses is chairmanship of the House Appropriations subcommittee on defense, a position from which he could conceivably block any funding of a USAF award of the contract to EADS;
- Todd Tiahrt (R-Boeing/KS) lost his primary bid to move over to the US Senate, so he’s out of Congress altogether. This is a key Boeing ally.
- Patty Murray (D-Boeing/WA) widened her razor-thin lead in Washington State over Dino Rossi (R). Although Rossi fumbled a key question about the tanker competition during the race, there really was never any doubt that Rossi would support Boeing’s bid. But if Murray wins her fourth term, and the Democrats retain control of the Senate, both of which now appear likely, Boeing retains a powerful voice in the Senate to block any EADS contract; Read more