Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
Boeing needs “real honest-to-God product development:” ex-CEO
By Scott Hamilton
Ex-Boeing CEO Phil Condit. Credit: Leeham News.
Jan. 10, 2023, © Leeham News: An ex-chief executive officer of The Boeing Co. said Jan. 9 that the company needs to undertake “real honest-to-God” product development, or it will lose the skills required to do so.
Phil Condit, the CEO was named president of Boeing in 1992 and CEO in 1996. He retired in 2004 after a lifetime career at Boeing, with leadership roles in the 747, 757, 757, 767, and 777 programs. Speaking at the University of Washington aerospace school, Condit was asked about Boeing’s product development.
“I’ve got to be really careful,” Condit replied, choosing his words carefully. “I’ve been retired for almost two decades. I think there are some things that I have heard and observed that I agree with, like SAF as a place to go, is one of those. I think it’s important for Boeing to do some real honest-to-God important development because over time you lose skill. If you don’t do things, you lose your capability to do them. It’s important that skills get exercised.”
SAF is Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Boeing currently is placing its major bets in ecoAviation on SAF rather than hydrogen or battery-powered aircraft, although research and development of the latter two areas continue. Current CEO David Calhoun previously announced Boeing’s commercial airliners will be 100% SAF-capable by 2030. Airbus will, too, but it’s pursuing hydrogen as a major solution to some of aviation’s need to go “green.”
Pontifications: Calhoun’s third year anniversary as Boeing’s CEO
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 10, 2023, © Leeham News: In three days, David Calhoun will “celebrate” his third anniversary as the chief executive officer of The Boeing Co.
I put “celebrate” in quotes because I’m not sure Calhoun really is in a celebrating mood. Boeing still has a big hole to climb out of and it’s going to be a few more years at least just to get back to 2019 production levels for the 737. Production levels for the 767/KC-46A are stable with a goal of increasing to 4/mo. Levels for the 777 remain at around two per month, pending certification of the 777X. Production of the 787 won’t get back to its peak of 14/mo, or even 12/mo. But Boeing hopes to achieve a production rate of 10/mo by mid-decade.
In the meantime, things are hardly running smoothly at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) or Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BDS).
David Calhoun
BCA remains plagued by quality control issues. Inexperienced workers hired to replace those who retired, accepted early buyouts, and normal attrition during the MAX grounding and COVID pandemic have learning curves. Clearing the grounded MAX inventory is slower than hoped. Clearing the 787 inventory will also be a slow slog.
Relations with the Federal Aviation Administration may be better than under Calhoun’s predecessor, Dennis Muilenburg. But Boeing doesn’t have its own “ticketing” (certification) authority restored and another safety investigation is about to begin.
BDS has its own long-standing issues. The Starliner and SLS space programs have been problematic. Losses and delays continue on the KC-46A, Air Force One, T-7, and MQ-25 programs. Legacy programs from the McDonnell Douglas era (the 1990s and before) recorded losses last year.
Boeing Global Services seems to be the only bright spot. Even Calhoun’s announcement on Nov. 2 that BCA won’t introduce a new airplane until the middle of the next decade drew a lot of raspberries from a wide swath of the industry—including, of all things, the Wall Street Journal.
Outlook 2023: Turboprops: Embraer and De Havilland look to future, leaving market to ATR
Embraer’s TPNG turboprop concept. A decision whether to launch the program has been delayed. Credit: Embraer.
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By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 9, 2023, © Leeham News: Turboprops should be having a moment, given all the concern about how the aviation industry is contributing to climate change. Want to cut your fuel burn by 45%? Just retire your fleet of 70-seat regional jets and replace them with turboprops.
Yet even with concerns over the environmental (and monetary) costs of operating regional jets, there hasn’t been a big move toward turboprops. In December, Embraer announced it was putting the development of a 70-to-90-seat turboprop on hold. The reason: Suppliers can’t provide it with components (meaning engines) that will provide enough of a performance increase to make a new plane worthwhile.
Meanwhile, the orphaned De Havilland Dash-8 – now owned by a rebranded De Havilland Aircraft Canada – has been out of production since mid-2021.
That leaves the Franco-Italian consortium of ATR as the only OEM likely to deliver any turboprops to airlines in 2023, 2024 – maybe even beyond.
That could change by the end of the decade, however. Embraer is working on a hybrid-electric aircraft that could be ready as soon as 2030 in 19- and 30-seat versions. And a rebranded De Havilland Canada is taking steps to restart production of the Dash-8 at a new factory site in Alberta.
Summary
- Embraer focuses Energia on two models
- ATR working to certify STOL version of ATR42
- Can Dash-8 come back with new company, factory, workforce?
Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 52. What can be done before 2050?
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 6, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Since we started this series about our Air Transports and their pollution, we have covered different schemes of reduction such as improved Air Traffic Control (ATC), change to electric aircraft (battery/hybrids) or hydrogen as fuel, and lastly, eVTOLs.
Of these changes, only ATC can have a short-term effect, but it’s a slow mover for organizational reasons.
Changes to how our aircraft are propelled are, unfortunately, longer-term improvements, as we see in an example below.
But we need fast change. We’ve had the craziest of summer and now winter in Europe, where I live, and it’s not a one-time variation. And this is not confined to Europe; the weather change is faster than we thought, and it’s worldwide.
So what can we do?
Figure 1. CO2 emissions by region. Source: Our World in Data.
Outlook 2023: stabilizing operations at Boeing
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
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By Vincent Valery and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: LNA wrote a year ago that resuming Boeing 787 deliveries was among the top 2022 priorities for the American OEM. Despite taking longer than envisioned (until August), the resumption of Dreamliner deliveries proved to be the high point of 2022 for Boeing Commercial Aviation (BCA).
The resumption of 737 MAX operations in China has still not materialized, and clearing the inventory of aircraft produced during the grounding is taking longer than envisioned. Boeing does not expect Chinese carriers to take delivery of their 140 737 MAXes for several years.
While Boeing launched the 777-8F, the 777X had another significant entry into service delay. The EIS is scheduled for 2025, around five years later than envisioned at the program launch in 2013. In October, a new problem with the giant GE9X engine emerged. Analysis is underway by GE. Whether there will be any additional impact on EIS remains to be seen.
Certification of the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 appears to be on a path for success. In November, Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington State proposed extending the deadline from year-end 2022 for compliance with legislative requirements to install a new system called EICAS. EICAS monitors the 737’s systems and guides pilots in handling faults. EICAS is not on the already-certified MAX 8 and MAX 9. The legislation was passed with the assumption that the MAX 7 and 10 would be certified before the effective date.
However, the factors that most impacted BCA’s ability to generate cash flows were supply chain issues and labor shortages. Boeing has still not stabilized production on the 737 line at the announced goal of 31 per month.
In light of all the above, what lies ahead for Boeing in 2023?
Summary
- Critical to stabilize aircraft production;
- Financial drag from the Defense, Space & Security division;
- Avoiding more material certification delays;
- EcoAviation and lack of new product developments;
- Competing for orders without launching a new aircraft
Outlook 2023: Labor shortages continue to plague aerospace
Boeing 777 final assembly line in Everett (WA). Credit: Leeham News.
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By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 4, 2023, © Leeham News: Some aerospace suppliers say the industry is dealing with a shortage of production workers, as well as engineers. Airbus, Boeing and other manufacturers, including engine companies, complain they can’t get to desired production rates because of, in part, a labor shortage.
It’s part of a broader phenomenon across all manufacturing, with one industry group saying there’s an immediate need for 2.1 million factory workers right now.
In some circumstances, this has meant raising wages. In Wichita, the “Aerospace Capital of the World,” there’s a bidding war going on for skilled aerospace mechanics. In Puget Sound, Boeing had to go back to the bargaining table with the Machinists Union in 2019, to negotiate $4-an-hour pay increases for entry-level workers. In Charleston (SC), Boeing reportedly struggles with a higher-than-normal attrition rate as workers leave for higher-paying jobs.
It seems inevitable that the lack of experienced workers will make it harder for companies to deliver parts and finished goods on time, and the absolute need to raise pay will cut into margins. Both these factors could very well be a drag on profits, even as airlines clamor for new aircraft that will increase manufacturers’ revenues.
Summary:
- Analysts warn of ‘labor headwinds’
- Spirit faced with ‘dynamic’ labor environment
- Boeing: 100 new mechanics a week?
- New-hire pay about the same as retail
- High turnover causes supply chain problems
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
Pontifications: Southwest meltdown (its second in 3 months) is a day of reckoning; what will it do to fix it?
Jan. 3, 2023, © Leeham News: I’ve been employed by, consulting, or writing about the airline industry for 43 years.
By Scott Hamilton
I’ve seen plenty of times when flights were disrupted. There was 9/11, in which the US skies were closed for four days. It was a first. The COVID pandemic essentially shut down global traffic for months, another first. I’ve seen 40% of the US capacity operating in bankruptcy following the 1991 Persian Gulf War. There was SARS. The hijacking epidemic in the 1970s. The Palestine Liberation Organization hijacked four airliners at once and blew them up in the desert, fortunately having let passengers and crew deplane first.
See airport chaos:
But never have I seen the chaotic meltdown of an airline like that seen during the Christmas period of Southwest Airlines. On Boxing Day, the Luv airline canceled two-thirds of its flights. Its hubs in places like Baltimore and Chicago Midway were a sea of humanity and baggage. Southwest’s meltdown was simply unbelievable.
Yet, somehow, I wasn’t terribly surprised.
I’ve been watching Southwest for nearly five decades. I gave up flying it probably close to 20 years ago, even though I love Midway Airport (I still have family in the Chicago suburbs). Southwest has been on a long, long, long road to implosion for years.
Here’s why.
Outlook 2023: ramping up production at Airbus
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
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By Vincent Valery and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 2, 2023, © Leeham News: LNA wrote a year ago that ramping up single-aisle production would be Airbus’ major 2022 challenge. Increasing narrowbody aircraft production on the A220 and A320 lines proved more difficult than envisioned for the European OEM.
The war in Ukraine, which led to sanctions and higher energy bills, compounded the challenges for Airbus and its supply chain. Among the suppliers behind delivery schedules, engine manufacturers received the most attention earlier in the year. The situation has improved since then.
Airbus did not launch any new aircraft variants in 2022. While the A321XLR flight campaign started in June 2022, the program has accumulated a six-month delay. Entry into service is now planned for 2Q2024 instead of 4Q2023. The delays are caused mainly by the certification of the new rear center fuel tank into the fuselage.
Despite a production line full for several years, Airbus continued accumulating healthy numbers of A320neo orders, including from Chinese carriers. The cancellation of AirAsia X’s A330neo order improved the family’s order book quality. Net orders for the A350 family, including the freighter variant, have been muted but should pick up as long-haul traffic recovers. Airbus’ low point has been the ongoing court battle with Qatar Airways on the A350 paint issue, leading to the cancellation of the carrier’s order book.
Last but not least, Airbus announced many ecoAviation and sustainability initiatives throughout the year, culminating at its Annual Summit Nov. 30-Dec. 1.
Will 2023 be more of the same for the European OEM?
Summary
- Behind-schedule ramp-up on both single-aisle lines;
- New orders will determine the pace of the twin-aisle ramp-up;
- Avoiding further A321XLR certification delays;
- Robust cash flows allow sizable R&D spend on ecoAviation;
- No new product development and more A330neo orders?
NTSB issues critique of Ethiopia’s final report of Boeing 737 MAX 2019 crash
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 27, 2022, © Leeham News: The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) today issued a critique of the newly released final investigation report of the Ethiopian government of the March 10, 2019, crash of a Boeing 737 MAX.
Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 came five months after Lion Air flight JT610, a MAX, crashed. Both accidents began when the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) activated following a failure of the single Angle of Attack (AOA) sensor to which it was tied malfunctioned (JT610) or failed (ET302).
Boeing issued a notice to MAX operators after the Lion Air crash outlining proper procedures pilots should follow in case MCAS erroneously activated again. The Ethiopian government investigation placed the blame for the crash on Boeing. The NTSB’s critique concluded the pilots failed to follow Boeing recommendations and should be partly held responsible for the probable cause of the crash. Had they followed procedure, the NTSB concludes the pilots could have successfully flown through the emergency.
HOTR: Some changes coming to LNA in January
Dec. 27, 2022, © Leeham News: There will be some changes coming to Leeham News on Jan. 1, 2023.
The first is that for the first time since 2017, we adjust our subscription rates. We’ve been including notices in our articles throughout December. We provided notice on our Subscription page on Dec. 1. Here are the new rates:
Subscription Rate Adjustment
Effective Jan. 1, 2023, the following subscription rates will be in effect (US dollars):
-
- Monthly Rate: $59.95. This is for individuals and not corporate employees.
- Annual Individual Rate: $652. This is for individuals and not corporate employees.
- Annual Single User Corporate Rate: $1,632. This is for an individual corporate user.
Enterprise corporate subscriptions begin with Enterprise 3 (three users) and are available for up to 500 users. Please contact us at info@leeham.net for more information.
This is the first rate adjustment since 2017.
Accordingly, we’ll make some adjustments to our content.