Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 16.
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 4, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We now examine the non-CO2 effects of Air Transport that contribute to global warming. Of these, contrails have the largest impact.
Contrails form when aircraft gas turbine engines emit soot particles into water vapor-saturated areas with low temperatures, where the soot particles act as condensation nuclei and the droplets freeze into ice crystals.
The report from Lee et al. (2021) lists non-CO2 effects as more important for Global Warming from Air Transport than CO2 emissions from burning hydrocarbon fuels, Figure 1.
Figure 1. A summary of the CO2 and non-CO2 Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) contributions from Air Transport. Source: The report “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000-2018” by Lee et al. (2021).
How good is the C919? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 3, 2025, © Leeham News: The COMAC C919 is finding its first customers outside China, which gives us a reason to examine the aircraft.
Last week, we estimated its efficiency versus its Western “look-a-like,” the Airbus A320neo. Now, we look at new variants that have been announced and how competitive these would be.
Figure 1. The C919 and its variants are analyzed by the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model, APCM. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The C919, sized like an A320neo, is the first variant in a family of aircraft.
- The next C919 variant is a shorter model for hot and high airfield operation.
- The following variant is an A321neo-sized aircraft.
Airbus launches Book and Claim SAF scheme
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By Scott Hamilton
March 31, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus last week announced a program to boost Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) called Book and Claim. Its purpose is to buy SAF credits in one location and take credit for them in another.
The buyer can then claim in its corporate reports that it is meeting environmental goals, at least in part.
“This initiative aims to boost both supply and demand for SAF worldwide, providing a flexible and scalable solution to accelerate SAF adoption,” Airbus said at its annual environmental Aviation Summit.
“In simple terms, the book and claim approach allows a buyer to ‘book’ a certain amount of SAF and ‘claim’ the corresponding emission reduction, even if the fuel is used elsewhere. Through a pilot program running throughout 2025, Airbus will leverage this system to improve SAF accessibility for potential customers, particularly those with limited volumes and far from supply points,” the company said.
It’s an admirable effort for an industry that has so far fallen dramatically short of the SAF goals outlined by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) at its 2021 Annual General Meeting in Boston (MA).
However, LNA is skeptical about the effort. Carbon credits, which appear to be a variation, failed when airlines tried them. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby called carbon offsets a “fig leaf” and “mostly a fraud.”
In land use regulations, Book and Claim sounds suspiciously like wetland mitigation programs. This is where a wetland is filled in for development and a new one may be created miles away, offsetting the environmental damage in the original location. At least this is the theory, and it’s essentially pencil-whipping. Nature doesn’t work this way for wetlands. LNA isn’t convinced it works this way for carbon, either.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 15.
March 21, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
After covering alternative propulsion concepts to lower CO2 and NOx emissions, we now study air transport’s non-CO2 effects on global warming. Of these, contrails have the largest impact.
Contrails form when aircraft gas turbine engines emit soot particles into low-temperature water vapor-saturated areas in the atmosphere. The soot particles form condensation nuclei, and the developed droplets freeze to ice crystals that form contrails.
Figure 1. The net Radiative Forcing of flights during 2019. Source: The report “Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021” from 2024.
How good is the C919? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 27, 2025, © Leeham News: The COMAC C919 is finding its first customers outside China, which gives us reason to examine it and estimate how efficient it would be operating a typical mission compared to its Western competitors.
We will compare the C919ER version with a 3,000nm maximum range to “its look-a-like”, the A320neo, which served as the C919 design template.
Figure 1. The C919ER is analyzed using the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The C919 consumes more fuel as the airframe is larger for the same seating capacity as the A320neo.
- Due to a lack of airframe maturity, the maintenance costs will also be higher.
- The big unknown will be the capital costs as the pricing or leasing strategy of a state-owned COMAC is hard to predict.
Boeing’s new fighter award moves away from money-losing fixed price contracts
By Scott Hamilton
March 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s major win for the US Air Force’s new F-47 sixth-generation fighter isn’t just a major plus for a company under siege since 2019. It’s a major shift in its defense and space contracting that moves away from fixed price contracting, costing it billions of dollars during the past two decades.
Boeing’s new F-47 fighter. Credit: US Air Force.
An Air Force official told LNA that the contract is a cost-plus-incentive-fee award for “Engineering and Manufacturing Development. ” The contract will mature, integrate, and test all aspects of the NGAD Platform (Next Generation Air Dominance), the official said. The contract will produce a small number of test aircraft, which will be used for testing. The contract also includes competitively priced options for Low-Rate Initial Production aircraft.
Boeing’s Defense, Space, and Security unit entered into a series of fixed-price contracts that have been plagued by cost overruns. The KC-46A aerial refueling tanker cost more than $7bn over the fixed-price contract. Converting two passenger model 747-8s into the new Air Force One cost more than $3bn. The MQ-25 unmanned Navy refueling drone, T-7 Red Hawk fighter trainer, and Starliner space capsule, among other defense programs, add up to billions of dollars more cost overruns on fixed-price contracts.
The F-47 is Boeing’s first all-new fighter contract with the Air Force. Its current fighter programs pre-date the 1997 merger with McDonnell Douglas Corp.
Airbus still struggles to deliver planes on time
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By Scott Hamilton
March 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus continues to struggle to deliver commercial airliners to customers on time, with the A320neo and A350 families now sold out into the early 2030s.
Customers complain that they can’t get their aircraft on time and often can’t get definitive information about delivery times.
Airbus blames the supply chain, including engine delays from CFM and seats from multiple companies. LNA is told quality control issues at the European assembly plants are also problems.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 14.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 21, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
Last week, we examined MTU’s WET engine concept, which utilizes a water capture process in a Turbofan to lower emissions, such as NOx, and reduce the water content in the exhaust, thereby reducing contrail risk. The week before, we looked at a similar concept, focused on a hydrogen burn process from Pratt & Whitney called HySIITE.
Both concepts capture water in the turbofan’s exhaust and can then release it in a way that avoids contrail generation. Contrails have garnered significant attention in recent years, as research has raised the possibility that persistent contrails can contribute as much or more to global warming than the CO2 released during the Turbofan combustion process in an airliner.
We will spend the next Corners digging deeper into the question of air transport’s non-CO2 effects that contribute to global warming. Contrails have the largest impact on these non-CO2 contributions.
Figure 1. The complex interaction of different heat radiation and blocking processes in our atmosphere. Source: The report “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000-2018” by Lee et al.
How good is the COMAC C919?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 20, 2025, © Leeham News: The COMAC C919 is finding its first customers outside China, with an order from the Brunei-based GallopAir upstart being first with an order for 30 C919 in September 2023. These aircraft cannot be delivered until the Brunei regulator has approved the C919 Chinese certification, which was issued by the Chinese regulator in September 2022.
Deliveries to Chinese airliners began in December 2022, with 2023 mostly spent on route proving with China Eastern Airlines first delivered aircraft. China Eastern took delivery of a further two C919s during 2023. COMAC delivered 13 C919s in 2024 to China Eastern Airlines (8), Air China (2), and China Southern Airlines (3).
The second Air China C919 was the first C919ER version, featuring a 3,000nm nominal range, whereas the others were the standard 2,200nm version.
With deliveries now at around one aircraft per month and the start of marketing to airlines outside China, it’s time to examine the C919 more closely and compare it to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX.
Figure 1. The first C919 delivered to China Eastern Airlines in December 2022. Source: COMAC.
Summary:
- The C919 has now reached series delivery, with 13 aircraft delivered during 2024.
- The first sales campaigns outside China have started.
- How significant a threat will the C919 pose to Airbus and Boeing?
Boeing CFO Brian West: OK on tariffs for now, backlogs and inventories help
By Karl Sinclair
Brian West, CFO of Boeing.
March 20, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing (BA) Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Brian West, was optimistic about Boeing’s path for recovery and appeared unworried about any near-term impacts of tariffs imposed by President Trump on aluminum and steel during an appearance yesterday at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference.
West was optimistic that in the short-term, Boeing would face little trouble in dealing with the turmoil caused by the tariff war started by President Trump.
“On the supply side, we don’t see material impact (from the tariffs)”, said West.
According to him, the aluminum that Boeing uses is nearly all domestically sourced and makes up 1% to 2% of the average cost of an aircraft.
As well, 80% of all parts and materials used at BCA and 90% at BDS, are from domestic suppliers.
West also pointed to the large buffer in inventory, purchased pre-tariffs, which mitigates any short-term pain the company may face.
“We think we’ve got that pretty well managed”, West summed up, but concerns still exist.
“We do worry about parts availability, due to the supply chain”, he said.
While Boeing may be protected in the near-term, many suppliers in the chain do not have the financial capability to stockpile inventory and could be sourcing raw materials from tariffed nations.
There was no mention of who would be on the hook, for any price increases, in that regard.