Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 24. May 30, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3. May 29, 2025
- Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals May 26, 2025
Boeing and Airbus: A financial comparison
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By Karl Sinclair
March 3, 2025, © Leeham News: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” famously wrote Charles Dickens in the opening of A Tale of Two Cities.
Boeing 737 MAX. Credit: Boeing.
Indeed, the financial results may indicate that neither Airbus (AB) nor Boeing (BA) are going through the best of times. However, one corporation clearly weathered 2024 better than the other.
While Airbus (with Helicopters, and Defense and Space) and Boeing (with Defense and Space, and Global Services) have other business segments, make no mistake: these are the undercards that make up the heavyweight title fight.
Airbus and Boeing will both go as their respective commercial aircraft divisions do.
Airbus A320neo. Credit: Airbus.
Both OEMs have released 20-year commercial aircraft market projections, forecasting that more than 40,000 new aircraft are needed, worth trillions of euros and dollars. This is the huge prize Airbus and Boeing are grappling with.
Summary
- About 10 years for Boeing’s financial recovery.
- Boeing could deliver its entire backlog, and its debt will still be greater than pre-crisis levels.
- A400M continues to be a drag on Airbus financials.
- Spirit AeroSystems will add to Boeing’s debt.
17 Days and 17 Miles Apart: a book review
Reviewed by Scott Hamilton
Donald J. Porter
McFarland & Co. © 2025. $39.95.
March 1, 2025, (c) Leeham News: 17 Days and 17 Miles Apart is a disappointing book. It’s the second by author Donald Porter. His first, in 2020, is called Flight Failure: Investigating the Nuts and Bolts and Air Disasters and Aviation Safety.
I bought that book then and reviewed it in LNA; it is still available on Amazon. I found Flight Failure more interesting than 17 Days, which seems pretty much like a pick-up of that book. Both recount the 1961 accident of TWA flight 529 in Clarendon Hills (IL). Flight Failure didn’t make my move from Seattle to Chicago last year, so I can’t go back and see if Northwest Airlines flight 706, which happened 17 days after TWA 529 and 17 miles away (after takeoff from Chicago O’Hare Airport), was recounted in Flight. It doesn’t matter. 17 Days suffers from a lot of flaws.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 11.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 28, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
Last week, we discussed the fact that Airbus has moved its hydrogen-fueled ZEROe aircraft into the 2040s and that it will be fuel cell based. It’s a bit of an irony that Pratt &Whitney announced major news for the alternative hydrogen burn alternative four weeks before. Let’s dissect what Pratt & Whitney announced.
Figure 1. Hans von Ohain’s first jet engine started on hydrogen in 1937. Source: Wikipedia.
Embraer reports record revenue in 2024, eyes growth in 2025
By Leeham News Team
Feb 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Embraer closed 2024 on a high note, posting record-breaking revenue and strong aircraft deliveries across its commercial, executive, and defense sectors.
The Brazilian aerospace manufacturer reported total revenues of $6.4 billion for 2024, a 21% increase year on year (YoY), reaching the high end of its guidance range. The company’s Defense & Security division saw 40% revenue growth.
The fourth quarter of 2024 was particularly strong, with revenues totaling $2.31 billion. Embraer delivered 75 aircraft during the period, including 31 commercial jets (20 E2s and 11 E1s) and 44 executive jets (22 light and 22 medium).
For the full year, the company delivered 206 aircraft, comprising 73 commercial jets, 130 executive jets, and three C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft. This marked a 14% increase in total deliveries YoY, aligning with its guidance. Read more
Rolls-Royce profit soars, reinstates dividend after turnaround
By Leeham News Team
February 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Underlying operating profit at Rolls-Royce surged to £2.5bn ($3.17bn) in 2024, up from £1.6bn the previous year – a 57% increase – according to the company’s full year 2024 results announced on Thursday.
Profits soared this year. Credit: Rolls Royce
Strong financial performance in the group’s civil aerospace, defense and power systems divisions all contributed to the result, which beat analysts expectations (aside from power systems, which came below expectations) and has been hailed as evidence of a turnaround for the once-struggling company under CEO Tufan Erginbilgic’s leadership. The former BP executive previously described Rolls Royce as a “burning platform.”
Rolls Royce’s operating margin grew by 8.7pts to 13.8% last year, while free cash flow leapt to £2.4bn from £1.9bn and revenue rose to £17.8bn from £15.4bn. The £2.5bn operating profit was ahead of a forecast for between £2.1bn and £2.3bn.
As a result of the financial progress, the UK-based company has reinstated its dividend for the first time since the pandemic, announcing a 6 pence per share payout. Read more
Ortberg, SPEEA meet; union surveys members for contract negotiations, strike
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By Scott Hamilton
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg (left) and SPEEA president John Dimas. Credit: SPEEA.
Feb. 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg met with the company’s engineers and technicians union, SPEEA, on Feb. 7. The meeting was the first since Ortberg was named CEO and took office on Aug. 8.
Neither SPEEA nor Boeing commented on the substance of the meeting. “We discussed matters of mutual concern and agreed to continue the dialogue going forward,” SPEEA President John Dimas said in a benign statement published on SPEEA’s website. Boeing declined comment.
SPEEA’s labor contract with Boeing expires next year. Negotiations won’t begin until next spring. A contract with Spirit AeroSystems’ technical workers represented by SPEEA expires on January 31. Boeing should complete its acquisition of Spirit by summer, so negotiations for that contract will be between SPEEA and Boeing.
Some SPEEA officials, noting Ortberg’s early statements about doing a “reset” with labor relations, complained that he hadn’t met with SPEEA.
But upon his arrival in August, Ortberg had his hands full. Contract negotiations were already underway with Boeing’s largest labor union, the IAM 751, whose contract expired 34 days after his arrival. The union walked out on September 13 for 53 days. Ortberg also had to deal with the long-running safety and quality control issues, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the fact that Boeing was running out of cash.
While it’s early yet, and the meeting between SPEEA and Ortberg only occurred on Feb. 7, on Feb 19, SPEEA published a survey for its members to identify issues and wants for next year’s contract negotiations. The responses must be returned by March 21. SPEEA will keep the results confined to the union’s leadership.
Among the questions is how long members would be prepared to stay out on strike. SPEEA is not prone to walkouts, as is the much more militant IAM.
Unions Flying High: Book Review
Reviewed by Scott Hamilton
Unions Flying High: Airline Labor Power in the 21st Century
Ted Reed
McFarland & Co.
Feb. 25, 2025, © Leeham News: Ted Reed has been an aviation reporter for as long as I can remember. He also worked in corporate communications for US Air. Among his focus areas is labor relations in the US airline industry. He’s also the co-author of American Airlines, US Airways and the Creation of the World’s Largest Airline.
Reed’s new book, Unions Flying High: Airline Labor Power in the 21st Century, provides a detailed look at how labor unions have resurged from a long era in which their power was eviscerated through a series of airline bankruptcies (in some cases, more than once) and carriers that ceased operations.
This painful era began with the deregulation of the US airline industry in 1979. It continued through the 1991 Gulf War, which dramatically spiked fuel prices. Then came the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001, which decimated US airlines. Add SARS (a pandemic largely limited to Asia) and other events, and unions lost most of their power. Wages and benefits were cut, and defined pension plans were terminated.
I lived through this era, first as a member of middle management with the first Midway Airlines beginning in 1979. Midway was the first airline to be certified by the then-ruling agency, the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), in 40 years, right on the eve of deregulation.
The CAB liberally granted applications to cut fares and awarded new routes with abandon before deregulation became official. This led to the 1982 bankruptcy of Braniff Airlines and the following year of Continental Airlines. It was Continental’s bankruptcy that truly began the series of labor defeats that existed for the next three decades, ending with America’s 2011 bankruptcy.
GE sees 2,500 LEAP engine deliveries by 2028, enough for more than 1,000 A320neos and 737 MAXes
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE Aerospace.
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: CFM International plans to deliver 2,500 LEAP engines by 2028, enough to power more than 1,000 Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes plus spare engines in a single year.
CFM is the 50-50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran. The 737 exclusively uses the LEAP. The A320neo family splits its powerplant business between CFM and Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan engines. Between the MAX and a portion of the A320neo engines, CFM has a solid majority of the market share for the mainline single-aisle aircraft sector.
CFM is the brand for the CFM56 and LEAP, but GE and Safran benefit from the aftermarket business. Between the two engines, the maintenance, repair, and overhaul business is big and profitable.
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace, spoke at the Barclays investors conference on Feb. 20.
“There’s no question that from an aftermarket perspective, LEAP on top of CFM56 is going to keep us very busy,” Culp said. “We haven’t been particularly good at calling the outlook here because we’ve undershot the reality with the CFM56 the last couple of years.”
Culp said that GE continues to believe that it’s got several years of growth ahead. “We probably don’t see an apex until probably the 2027, 28-ish time period, and then we’ll see a gradual fade with the CFM56.
“I think we’re still talking about 2,000 shop visits at the end of the decade. We’ll see if we’re right or wrong on that, but that’s our current view. I think our partners at Safran have in effect echoed that recently at their own earnings call.”
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 10.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 21, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
Last week, we reviewed the present fallout of lower emission projects that have not reached their goals and where investors, therefore, have decided not to invest further.
There is a well-known project failing every month at the present pace. Some recent ones: Universal Hydrogen’s ATR conversions, Volocopter and Lilium’s bankruptcies, Airbus freezing the CityAirbus eVTOL (Figure 1) and pushing out the ZEROe hydrogen airliner, hibernation of the Alice battery aircraft, etc. There will probably be more in the coming months.
Ortberg reaffirms goal of Boeing 777X certification at first appearance at bank’s investors’ conference
By Scott Hamilton
Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO. Credit: Boeing.
Feb. 20, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing hopes to certify its largest aircraft, the 777-9, late this year or early next year so that it can finally begin delivery of the 425-seat aircraft.
Delivery was originally supposed to be in December 2019 or the following quarter. However, technical delays, including those with the giant 115,000 lb thrust engines from GE Aerospace and the negative halo effect from the 737 MAX crisis, resulted in this unusually long delay.
Kelly Ortberg, Boeing’s CEO, reaffirmed the certification and delivery hopes during his first appearance since taking his job last August at an investment bank’s investor conference.
“We’re going through the flight test program, and we’re planning to get the certification done towards the end of this year or early next year so we can start the delivery,” Ortberg told the Barclays Bank event today. “The challenge is we’ve got to get through the certification here on the Dash 9 to start delivering these things to our customers.
“I was just with Carsten Spohr, the CEO of Lufthansa. He impressed upon me how critical that airplane is to his operating model,” Ortberg said.
The program is in a reach forward loss, so Ortberg said that any additional schedule delay with the program will likely result in another loss. Over the life of the program, he says it’ll be a profitable airplane.