Leeham News and Analysis
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Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 42. eVTOL range.
By Bjorn Fehrm.
October 21, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 42P, eVTOL range. It discusses the range of a typical eVTOL flying a feeder mission from a city center to an airport.
The 42P article details the energy consumption for each stage in the mission and the range we fly. We summarize the results here.
Figure 1. The Vertical Aerospace VX4 in an early rendering with similar looks to the eVTOL we discuss. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 42P. eVTOL mission range. The deeper discussion.
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October 21, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 42, eVTOL mission range. It discusses the typical maximum range we can expect from a certified eVTOL by mid-decade.
We have described the vehicle and the mission data in the three previous Corners; now, we analyze the energy consumption for the mission and discuss the range we can achieve.
Engine Development. Part 10. Next generation engines
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 20, 2022, © Leeham News: We finish our series about engine development by looking at the next-generation engines and future trends in airliner engine development.
We limit this look forward to engines that burn Jet fuel (Jet-A1 or SAF) as green propulsion solutions are a vast field and justify their own series. We will pick this up at a future date.
The Boeing 777-9, the first airliner with next-generation engines. Source: Boeing.
Summary
- The major reduction in fuel consumption and, thus, CO2 emissions will come from new engines.
- The technologies to drive fuel consumption down a further 15% are there.
HOTR: China-US relations continue to dive
By the Leeham News team
Oct. 17, 2022, © Leeham News: The G-7 meeting among the leaders of world’s top countries is next month. There were hopes that the USA’s President Biden and China’s President Xi would meet privately to work out some of the differences between the two countries. Resolving key differences is viewed as key to Boeing’s relationship with China.
The private meeting now is questionable. Biden last week imposed additional sanctions on the microchip industry. China is dominate in this sector. Beijing is now stonewalling setting an agenda for the Biden-Xi meeting.
Easing tensions between the US and China is crucial for Boeing. China historically accounted for between one quarter and one third of Boeing’s deliveries, depending on the year. There are more than 100 737 MAXes in storage built for Chinese airlines and lessors. (At one point, the number was 140. But lessors are allowed to accept deliveries, provided the lessee is not in China.)
Although China’s regulator, CAAC, recertified the MAX nearly a year ago, there were conditions required before the planes could return to service. Compliance has been slow. There were 97 MAXes in service in China in 2019, when CAAC became the first regulator to ground the fleet after the second MAX crash within a five-month period.
Boeing publicly decried the geopolitics between the US and China at one point as a roadblock that must be cleared. Domestically, China’s passenger traffic remains suppressed in part because of the zero tolerance to COVID infections. Returning the MAXes to service isn’t prompted by the need for the aircraft. Still, there are signs the MAX may return to service soon. However, new deliveries remain in doubt and Boeing is now beginning to remarket the stored aircraft to other operators.
Pontifications: Energy costs add to aerospace supply chain squeeze
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 17, 2022, © Leeham News: The aerospace supply chain faces new strains due to rising energy costs, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said last week.
Bloomberg News reports that Faury said some suppliers are shutting down due to high costs.
“We see another thing coming, which is the consequences of energy prices skyrocketing leading to some suppliers trying to adapt, sometimes stop producing, waiting for the situation to normalize,” he said. “That’s very low in the supply chain, but it’s probably something new,” Bloomberg wrote. It was reporting on Faury’s appearance before the UK Aviation Club.
At an unrelated event last month, two top US suppliers said they continue to see financial distress in the supply chain. Some lower-tier suppliers had filed for bankruptcy and more may be expected.
Analysts forecast traffic growth but scant profits for Indian airlines
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By Bryan Corliss
Oct. 17, 2022 © Leeham News: After sustaining major losses in their most-recent fiscal years, India’s airlines will recover in 2022. But rising fuel and labor costs, plus weak prospects for financing will constrain near-term growth.
That’s the analysis of Aairavat Transport & Technology Ventures consulting firm.
An IndiGo Airlines A320Neo on the runway at Mumbai. IndiGo is India’s largest airline. Photo by Timothy A. Gonsalves.
AT-TV’s assessment is less bullish than Boeing’s market outlook, which projects Indian airlines to add 25% capacity over the next year, with long-term growth targeted for 7%. Airbus is slightly more cautious, projecting 6.2% annual growth over the next two decades.
India is one of the world’s largest aviation markets. It’s also been one of the most challenging, with bankruptcies and constant financial distress plaguing the industry.
Summary
- India airlines have been in upheaval
- Tata Group wants new aircraft for Air India
- Indian airlines sustained major losses last year
- OEMs see long-term growth, but near-term outlook is choppy
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 41. VTOL mission calculations.
By Bjorn Fehrm.
October 14, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we defined the phases of an eVTOL mission that shall show us the typical range and endurance of the eVTOLs of a hybrid vectored thrust/lift and cruise eVTOL, similar to a Vertical VX4, Figure 1.
Several parts of the energy consumption calculations are complex, and surprisingly it’s not the vertical parts. We go through why and how we calculate the energy consumed for the mission.
Figure 1. The Vertical Aerospace VX4 in an early rendering with similar looks to the eVTOL we discuss. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
Engine Development. Part 9. Gearbox or not?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 13, 2022, © Leeham News: In our series, we look at the development of the latest single-aisle engines. Should these be geared? What do you gain and risk with a geared design? Is this a new development, or has it been around for a long time?
We examine the development of single-aisle engines since 2000, their fuel efficiency, and operational reliability.
Summary
- A geared design fixes some fundamental problems in a two-shaft turbofan.
- CFM proves you could just as well further develop what you have.
Update: Order public: federal court denies Mammoth Freighter request for preliminary injunction in trade secret theft lawsuit
By Scott Hamilton
Update, Oct. 11, 2022, (c) Leeham News: The US District Court of Southern California posted its Oct. 7 order on Oct. 11 denying Mammoth Freighter’s motion for a preliminary injunction against David Dotzenroth, Sequoia Aircraft Conversions and NIAR, the engineering arm of the University of Wichita.
Among the findings:
- As reported below, the court ruled that there is no irreparable harm to Mammoth and that there is no likelihood of succeeding on the merits of the lawsuit.
- The court determined that Mammoth failed to specifically identify alleged trade secrets.
- Mammoth lost on every point alleged in the lawsuit, the court ruled.
A copy of the order is here: 10-6-22 Order Prelim Injunction and here: Oct 7 Order Prelim Injunction et al
What’s next?
Mammoth could move to dismiss the lawsuit. If it doesn’t, the Defendants could move for a Summary Judgment dismissing the lawsuit. Or Mammoth could proceed with the lawsuit despite the court’s conclusions to date.
There is no deadline to pursue any of these options.
In major blow, federal court denies Mammoth Freighter request for preliminary injunction in trade secret theft lawsuit
Oct. 7, 2022, © Leeham News: The US District Court of Southern California denied a request by Mammoth Freighters for a preliminary injunction against David Dotzenroth, Sequoia Aircraft Conversions and others in the long-running lawsuit alleging the defendants with theft of trade secrets and intellectual property.
The order was issued on Sept. 28, but it has not been published yet. LNA learned of the order in a filing yesterday by the defendants seeking publication of the order on the PACER court website.
“The Order was filed under seal as Document 373, but there is no entry on the public docket indicating that it was entered or that Plaintiffs’ motion was denied,” the attorney for Dotzenroth, et al, wrote in a motion seeking publication of the order.
Denial of the motion for a Preliminary Injunction is a major blow to Mammoth. Although the Oct. 6 motion doesn’t contain details of the Sept. 28 order, the Cornell University Law School website states factors a court will consider in a request for an injunction.
Voltaero’s Cassio hybrid plane is “Mild”
The somewhat different hybrid-electric aircraft
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Oct. 10, 2022, © Leeham News: A French company, Voltaero, is taking a different approach to the plethora of concepts to produce a “green” aerial vehicle.
The Cassio family of aircraft uses a Mild Hybrid to avoid the pitfall of most hybrids, the need for a large battery. Batteries of today and tomorrow are too heavy to serve as the main power source for an aircraft unless it’s a flight around the airport like for trainers.
Voltaero designed a clever hybrid scheme that allows electric flight where it matters and leaves a thermal engine to do the rest. The concept, called a “Mild Hybrid,” keeps the advantages of the electric flight mode without the disadvantages of short-range or an expensive operation.