The Farnborough Air Show is just around the corner, and we don’t expect the event to be especially newsworthy.
Here are our expectations for the show:
Market expectations are that Airbus will launch the A330neo at the air show, and we know John Leahy, COO of Customers, would like to do so at this event. His bosses, Fabrice Bregier and Tom Enders, have been less than encouraging that this announcement could come at the show.
Although news stories last week indicated Airbus’ board may green light the program in advance of the FAS, it was nonetheless reported that a formal public launch may not be made at the show. So what might happen? An “Authority to Offer,” or ATO, might be how Airbus proceeds. We don’t think there will be firm orders ready to go when the FAS begins July 14—although certainly Airbus could also take Boeing’s 777X approach and announce “commitments” as was done at the Dubai Air Show.
We are skeptical whether there might be any A330 Classic orders announced, as customers await the neo. We certainly expect the usual orders for the A320 Family. We expect A350 orders. We’re doubtful of A380 orders.
We think it’s very possible some of those Dubai 777X orders could be firmed up at FAS. Boeing will try hard to get some 777 Classic orders—there have been only a handful this year so far—to bolster its (highly dubious) claim it will be able to bridge the Classic to the X at current production rates.
There haven’t been any 787-10 orders since last year—could there be some announced at FAS? We’ll see.
We are doubtful of 747-8 orders, though we’ll concede there might be a few—but nothing to give confidence in this program’s future.
Certainly there will be 737 MAX orders and perhaps a few NGs.
BBD typically does poorly at air shows, so we don’t have high expectations for FAS.
Look for more E-Jet E2 orders and maybe some E1s, but nothing earth-shaking.
Rumors persist that ATR could launch a 90-seat, new-design turbo-prop, but at last month’s Airbus Innovation Days, Airbus Commercial CEO Bregier said that with 75% of the turbo-prop market, why does ATR need to launch a new plane now? Remember, Airbus owns 50% of ATR and can block any program launch.
We don’t expect anything of consequence from Mitsubishi, Irkut or COMAC.
We expect a lot of orders to be announced from CFM and Pratt & Whitney in conjunction with 737 MAX and A320neo orders. As for GE and Rolls-Royce, these will likewise follow the airframe orders.
All-in-all, we expect a pretty boring show.