Airbus poised to out-deliver Boeing in 2019

Assumes supply chain delays are over
These figures also assume that both OEMs finally get past supplier problems from CFM, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce. Deliveries of 737 MAXes, A320neos, A330neos and 787s were affected by the engine makers’ various problems.

Delays from interiors supplier Zodiac and sporadic supply chain issues also contributed to delivery problems last year.

CSeries/A220 contribution
Airbus took over majority interest in the CSeries July 1. Final 2018 deliveries won’t be announced until the Airbus year-end summary press conference in about 10 days. It is expected to be 30-31. A goal of about 50 deliveries for 2019 is believed to be the target.

These 50 deliveries will comfortably put Airbus ahead of Boeing this year, LNC’s analysis indicates.

Boeing plans to hike production of the 737 and 787 this year. Officials haven’t announced a rate break date. Market intelligence indicates this will be July for the 737. LNC assumes a similar timing for the 787.

Production rates
Rates for the 737 will go from 52/mo to 57. Rates for the 787 will go from 12/mo to 14.
Boeing says the production rate for the 777 is 5.5/mo, but this includes the low rate production of the 777X. The announced delivery rate—for the 777 Classic—is 3.5/mo.
This is the figure LNC uses for its analysis.

Rates for the 767/KC-46A and 747 lines are based on actual rates.
Production rates for Airbus are based on actual rates and those learned through market intelligence.

Boeing’s Pro forma deliveries
LNC also calculated Boeing’s pro forma delivery forecast, assuming the Embraer joint venture is approved and becomes effective this year.

On this basis, Boeing could add another 96 deliveries to its books.  Embraer is expected to deliver about this number of EJets in 2018; final figures will be announced soon.

The figure may drop a bit for 2019 as Embraer speeds transition from the E1 to the E2, but not enough data is available yet to make a judgment.

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