Leeham News and Analysis
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Forecast 2022: Sustainability
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 7, 2022, © Leeham News: The year that passed was when Sustainability broke through the walls of “I’m not convinced we have a problem” and “If so, what shall we do about it.”
The declarations ahead of, at, and after COP26 in Glasgow, United Nations 26’th climate conference, had many major states and organizations commit to targets for the reduction of Greenhouse gases by 2030 and 2050.
With this change in mind and traction, what can we expect to see in 2022 from the Air Transport industry?
Idea for Sustainable Air Transport, a hydrogen regional. Source: Sustainable Aero Lab.
Summary
- The years that passed were run-up years. Now the preparations shall lead to the first results.
- We summarize what we can expect to see during 2022.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 5. Fundamentals recap.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 4, 2021, ©. Leeham News: We did a simple reality check on two high-profile ideas for Sustainable Air Transport last week, the Eviation Alice project and Heart Aerospace’s ES-19.
We now look at energy usage when performing Sustainable Air Transport flights, but it can be timely to recap some fundamentals of such flights before we discuss this.
Figure 1. A simplified aircraft force model. Source: Leeham Co.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 4. Reality checks.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 28, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Having discussed where investments would be the most efficient in alleviating our Greenhouse gas problems and identified the low-hanging fruit, we now look at new technology airplanes that can improve the situation.
We start with classical airliners, working our way from small types to the largest, then we discuss the impact of new transport forms like VTOLs for short-haul transportation.
As we will use the Leeham Aircraft Performance Model in some of the work, there will be extra articles (for this one, a Part 4P) which are Paywall, where we use the model to generate deeper data and understanding.
Figure 1. The Alice nine-seater drawings from Eviation’s Web. The present drawing (dark blue) differs from the mid-2021 drawing (light blue, on top). Source: Eviation and Leeham Co.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 4P. Reality checks, the deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 28, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to the Part 4. Reality Checks article. It uses data from Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model to develop the relationship between OEW (Operational Empty Weight) and MZFW (Maximum Zero Fuel Weight) compared with MTOW (Maximum Take-Off Weight) for 74 airliners in the model.
The article also discusses in more detail what’s the reasons behind large weight misses for new projects and how it’s handled.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 2. The problem to solve?
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 14, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Before we dig into the different alternatives we have for more Sustainable Air Transport, let’s look at the problem and its sources.
Figure 1 shows the emissions of CO2 per person since 1900 and the rise of the world temperature. The increase in world temperature changes the weather, with increased weather-related emergencies in recent years.
Figure 1. The increase in CO2 emission per capita and the rise of the world temperature from 1900 to 2018. Source: Wikipedia.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 1. A deeper look.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 7, 2022, ©. Leeham News: We finished a 34 article series before Christmas about the enormous work involved to get a new aircraft certified for passenger transport.
It was a background article series to the one we start now, a deeper series on what’s involved in designing air transport vehicles that are less polluting for our environment. We have seen a landslide of such projects in the last years, and from an experienced aircraft designer’s desk, most of these are doomed for failure.
Figure 1. The Embraer Energia concept aircraft. A credible Sustainable Air Transport research program. Source: Embraer.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 34. Wrap-up.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
December 17, 2021, ©. Leeham News: As we wrap up the series where we look at the monumental work you have to do to get a new aircraft type certified, we will discuss how we need several aircraft variants, addressing different markets, if we shall survive as an aircraft manufacturer.
All successful aircraft manufacturers produce and market a family of aircraft. If you stay with only one variant, you will find it hard to keep good people as the development work ends.
Figure 1. Beech 1900, a 19 seater aircraft developed from the Super King Air 200 with 9 seats. Source: Textron Aviation.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 33. Multi-country Certification
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam and Andrew Telesca.
December 10, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Our aircraft has now achieved its first deliveries and is Entering Into Service (EIS) with our launch customer.
This covers one customer and one jurisdiction. As each country is sovereign in Airworthiness certification, we have work to do for each market we want to address.
Figure 1. A new 19 seater design, the Cessna 408 SkyCourier, started life as a cargo aircraft certified to US Part 23 standards. Here, the passenger version. Source: Cessna.
A short history of production system development
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By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 6, 2021, © Leeham News: Long ago, aircraft were simple, made of steel tubing, wood, and fabric. Engineering staffs were small, and the craftsmen building them had little need for specific production planning instructions because they were very simple. This was the work environment
Boeing Model 40 at the Museum of Flight, Seattle.
when CAM4B and CAM 18, the Civil Aeronautics Board Manual 4b and 18, described how aircraft were designed, certified, built, and maintained. Think of Ford Trimotors, Fokker F10, Boeing Model 40s and 80s, and Lockheed Vegas. It was the golden age of air transport.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 32. Aircraft delivery and EIS
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
December 3, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through typical problems by the start of serial production, such as weight creep and traveled work.
Now we discuss the ins and outs of delivering the aircraft to the customer airline and how we support the aircraft’s entry into service.
Figure 1. A new 19 seater design, the Cessna SkyCourier. Source: Cessna.