Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Fixing the fix: the Aircraft Certification, Safety Act
Last in a series of four articles
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By the Leeham News Team
Commentary
April 24, 2023, © Leeham News: Congress missed the boat authoring the Aircraft 
Certification, Safety and Accountability Act (the Act) because it felt that more regulations equals more safety. But the current Harvard Business Review notes that “Activity is not a measurable metric of success.” We think that additional layers of regulatory requirements are not necessarily additional layers of security.
Understanding that Congress was a bit wide of the mark, here are some of the changes we would implement if we were asked for our recommendations.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 9. Engine core advances. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion system cores and what efficiency improvements to expect from different technological advancements.
The Small Airliner Problem
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 20, 2023, © Leeham News: New Sustainable aircraft projects, for economical reasons, target small airliner types as first projects and then, after proving the concept, to move up in size. The number of 9-seat, 19-seat, and 30- to 50-seat upstarts announced over the last years must be in the hundreds.
They all claim major advances in environmentally friendly propulsion and that their first aircraft have viable business models. In their business plans, there are elaborate explanations why local air services will flourish through the introduction of small, environmentally friendly aircraft.
The reality is another. The airliner size, where more than 100 aircraft per year are delivered, is 200 seats increasing, and sales below 50 seats have slowed to a trickle. ATRs, the leading supplier of airliners below 70 seats, delivered five 50-seater turboprops during 2022 out of a total of 29. The 50-seater model stayed at around 10% of deliveries between 2014 to 2019 before COVID, when total production was 70 to 80 turboprops per year.
There are economic reasons for these low numbers, and these are not changing for the better. We will explore these reasons using our airliner Performance and Cost model in a series of articles, where we compare operational costs for 9-, 19- and 50-seaters to the larger aircraft.
Figure 1. The latest small airliner project from Maeve Aerospace. A 50-seater battery-based electric aircraft. Source: Maeve Aerospace.
Summary:
- We show the cost factors and their proportions for different airliner sizes.
- Then we look at how these factors scale with aircraft size.
Pontifications: Skyline backlog suggests higher production rate than Boeing targets for 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
April 17, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing’s skyline for the 777X, reported by Cirium, suggests there will be a need to boost production higher than the company’s target of 4/mo by 2025/2026. The delivery stream data is good news for Boeing, which doesn’t detail this information. Boeing took a billion-plus dollar write-off on the program, which has been marred by delays, engine issues, and certification questions.
Boosting the production rate beyond 4/mo will be an important contributor to Boeing’s financial recovery in the second half of this decade. At its peak, Boeing produced 8.3 777s a month, or 100 a year.
The current production rate of the program is two per month, for the 777-200LRF. Boeing’s website says the combined rate for the 777 Classic and the 777X is three per month. But a year ago, Boeing said it was suspending production of the X through 2023. Corporate communications would not comment on the contradiction, citing the quiet period before the 1Q earnings call on April 26.
Air India’s order for 10 Boeing 777Xs in February (among more than 200 other Boeing aircraft) is welcome news for the slow-selling airliner.
The airline’s orders haven’t been listed yet in Boeing’s running tally of orders, meaning the firm contract hasn’t been signed.
Summary
- Data shows deliveries of 777-200LRF drops dramatically in 2025.
- Production rate goal of 4/mo by 2025/26.
- Backlog shows demand for higher production rate.
Boeing offers bonuses up to $10,000 as it searches for scarce talent
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By Bryan Corliss
April 17, 2023, © Leeham News: The Boeing Co., which has talked of making significant production rate increases “very soon,” is offering bonuses of up to $10,000 as it recruits workers in touch-labor positions in both South Carolina and Puget Sound.
In Charleston, Boeing is offering $5,000 signing bonuses specifically for experienced painters and interiors installers as it tries to first stabilize, then increase, production of 787s. Boeing wants to reach a rate of 5/mo by the end of this year and 10/mo by 2025/26.
In Puget Sound, the company isn’t offering signing bonuses, but it is offering hefty payouts of up to $10,000 to current employees who refer experienced aerospace workers to openings in a number of job categories, including structures mechanics and general machinists.
The moves come as analysts continue to sound alarms about workforce shortages across the industry.
“We continue to remain cautious on the supply chain’s ability to support the planned production rate increases in 2H23 and into 2024,” wrote Ken Herbert, with RBC Capital Markets, in a report earlier this week. “We continue to see labor availability and training as the largest headwind facing the sector.”
- Boeing hiring as it prepares to ramp up
- Boeing offers hiring incentives
- Northwest aerospace labor market is tight
- S. Carolina: Lockheed-Martin offers $10K
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 8P. Propulsion advances
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 14, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 8. Propulsion advances. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion and what efficiency improvements to expect from different technological advancements.
The production cost trap for eVTOL upstarts
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 13, 2023, © Leeham News: Last week, we gave the example of a new propulsion principle 30-seat airliner as a project that would face the liquidity strain of initial production costs. We continue today with a look at the leading eVTOL projects, where development costs are passing $1bn and growing.
What will be the cash burn before these projects generate positive cash flow from serial production sales and services? We use our production cost model to analyze the situation.
Figure 1. Our generic eVTOL uses an early rendering of the Vertical VX4 as an illustration. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
Summary:
- VTOL projects promise early payback of invested capital.
- Our production cost model says otherwise.
MRO companies report double-digit growth in RBC survey
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By Bryan Corliss
April 12, 2023, © Leeham News: – MRO operators foresee double-digit growth in the rest of 2023 – as long as they can get the spare parts they need.
That’s the finding from RBC Capital Market’s latest quarterly survey of commercial aerospace MRO companies.
“The outlook remains robust,” RBC analyst Ken Herbert wrote, in a report sent to clients this week. Based on the survey results, RBC projected overall MRO sales and parts purchases increased 18% in the first quarter, with the strongest growth in Asia and Europe.
Much of that was driven by the engine market, where demand is up 20%, he wrote.
However, “spare part availability and material lead times, followed by ongoing labor shortages, remain the key risks to the 2023 outlook,” Herbert wrote.
The survey gathered responses from about 40 global MRO companies, parts distributors and OEMs in early April.
- Engines powering confidence
- Six-month outlook ‘bullish’ for spare parts
- Supply chain, labor remain key risks
MCAS, The Aircraft Certification Act and the unintended consequences of Congressional Intervention
Third in a Series
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By the Leeham News team
Boeing whistle blower Ed Pierson testified about issues surrounding the 737 MAX following the two crashes that killed 346 people. New York Times photo.
April 10, 2023, © Leeham News: Action by the US Congress following the Boeing 737 MAX crisis resulted in a host of new laws intended to fix shortcomings in regulations that contributed to the crisis. Sections in the legislation involved safety reporting and Whistle Blower protections. The Act provides for the establishment of Safety Management Systems.
But as we’ve seen in our series, there have been shortcomings in the legislation. These sections are no different.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 7P. Propulsion
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 7, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 7. Propulsion. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion systems and what to expect from their possible increase in performance and efficiency.