Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
Tier 1 suppliers are a “failed market”
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 20, 2025, © Leeham News: The Tier 1 supply chain is all but dead.
Kevin Michaels.
This rather startling conclusion belongs to Kevin Michaels, the managing director of the consulting firm Aerodynamic Advisory. When he explains his thinking, it supports a major shift in the aerospace industry.
He made his remarks at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference this month in the Seattle area.
Tier 1 supplies are the last step in the supply chain, delivering products directly to the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), such as Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and the engine makers.
Michaels said the supply chain is “fragile” and “red hot.” “Overall, the supply chain is in better shape than it was last year at this time. It’s in better shape now than it was two years ago. But it’s still incredibly fragile.” OEMs purchase about 75% of the value of the aircraft from the supply chain. Aerostructures are the first tier. And this is where Michaels’ rubber hits the road.
Another One Bites the Dust; alternative energy gives way to realities
Grounded: Eviation’s Alice, a concept that had more questions than answers. Credit: Eviation.
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 18, 2025, © Leeham News: Universal Hydrogen. Lilium. Volocopter. Tecnam’s electric airplane. Airbus electric. Airbus hydrogen. ATR hybrid.
Eviation was just the latest alternative energy project to bite the dust.
And these are just the ones we’ve heard about.
Boeing declined comment on the status of its WISK autonomous electric air taxi. Its future may have as much to do with the company’s current financial condition and efforts to recover from a series of crises since the March 2019 grounding of the 737 MAX than with technology or business model concerns.
The alternative energy aviation industry, the soup du jour in recent years, is running out of gas, so-to-speak. LNA’s aerospace engineer, Bjorn Fehrm, predicted years ago that battery-, and hybrid-powered airplanes were concepts that wouldn’t fly and that hydrogen’s availability at airports is tough nut to crack.
The International Air Transport Association in October 2021 adopted a goal for the airline industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Aggressive milestones also were adopted. Included were ambitious goals to significantly increase the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), the path favored by Boeing.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, said then, Don’t make promises you can’t keep.
The industry, it now increasingly admits, can’t keep these promises.
Howmet tariffs to be paid by customers: CEO
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By Karl Sinclair
Feb. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Howmet Aerospace (HWM), a supplier to Airbus, Boeing, and other aerospace companies, last week reported sharply improved earnings for 2024.
Howmet is a Pittsburgh (PA)-based aerospace manufacturer, generally classified as a Tier 2 supplier. It produces components for engines, aluminum and titanium structures, fasteners, and other aircraft components.
On the Feb 13, annual earnings call, Howmet Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant remarked that he expects that Howmet will be well positioned to deal with the effects of the tariffs instituted by President Donald Trump, due to the strong contracts it has. Any costs incurred in those respects will be passed onto its customers.
Howmet is segmented into four divisions: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels.
Safran hails ‘landmark’ 2024 with record results
By Leeham News Team
Feb. 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Safran has announced “record-breaking” financial results for 2024, with revenues, profits, and free cash flow all reaching new highs, helped by strong aftermarket activity and the return to profitability of its aircraft interiors division.
The strong performance has prompted an upward revision of its 2025 outlook, with revenue and income forecast to be higher than the figures given in December.
Reflecting on the 12-month period in a call with analysts on Friday morning, CEO Olivier Andriès described it as a “landmark year” for the company, despite “persistent supply chain difficulties as well as residual inflationary pressures”.
For the 2024 financial year, Safran reported adjusted revenue of €27.3 billion, a 17.8% increase, while recurring operating income surged by 30.1% to €4.1 billion, representing 15.1% of sales.
Free cash flow reached €3.19 billion, with shareholders set to benefit from a proposed dividend of €2.90 per share, pending approval.
Consolidated figures for the year were similarly robust, with total revenue at €27.7 billion and operating income at €4.19 billion.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 9.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 14, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
We have covered the progress of battery-based aircraft and hybrids. Last Corner started looking at hydrogen-fueled alternatives. A day after the Corner, the Airbus workers union Force Ovrier published information from an Airbus internal meeting, in which the airframer delayed the introduction of a hydrogen aircraft by 2035 to about 10 years later. As a consequence, it reduces the R&D spending on the development of hydrogen propulsion technologies.
Figure 1. The Airbus ZEROe concepts. Source: Airbus.
Politics and the FAA
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Now open to all readers.
By Colleen Mondor
Credit: New York Post.
Feb. 13, 2025, © Leeham News: On Jan. 29 at 8:47 PM, a US Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter flying a low-level route over the Potomac River collided with a PSA Airlines Mitsubishi CRJ700 operating as an American Airlines flight 5342 on final approach to Washington Reagan National Airport.
The military crew of three and the 64 passengers and crew on flight 5342 were all killed. The near immediate upload of Air Traffic Control (ATC) communications online showed that flight 5342 was cleared for final to runway 33 while approaching the airport from the south. The Black Hawk, transitioning the airspace from the north, requested visual separation and acknowledged traffic in sight.
In the aftermath of the accident, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) immediately launched a “GO Team” in the area. It held an early press conference with all five members of the board present. Within hours of the crash, however, it was obvious that two potentially conflicting stories were emerging. The first was a traditional aviation accident investigation, which included the NTSB and investigators from the US military. The second was comprised of pure politics and fueled by negative comments from President Trump the day after the accident, which attacked not only the professionalism of Reagan’s ATC employees but controllers nationwide.
Spirit Aero teeters on bankruptcy, but what’s new about that?
By Karl Sinclair
Feb. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: Spirit Aerosystems (SPR) of Wichita (KS) filed an 8-K report with the Securities and Exchange Commission today with a troubling statement in its Investor Presentation:
“Due to Spirit’s cash flow and liquidity position, management expects to make a going concern disclosure in its 2024 Form 10-K. The Company anticipates that it will conclude in its 2024 From 10-K that there is substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.”
Going concern is an accounting term indicating that a corporation has serious doubts about its ability to continue operations for the next year.
Given Spirit’s important position as a Tier 1 supplier for Airbus and Boeing, this is a troubling development for both OEMs. But it’s not unexpected. Airbus and Boeing have been propping up Spirit for years with hundreds of millions of dollars in advance payments or loans. Without them, Spirit probably would have filed for bankruptcy long before now.
Trump vows to add tariffs to aluminum and steel; Airbus, Boeing, suppliers will be impacted
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported aluminum and steel this week, including from the USA’s largest supplying countries: Canada and Mexico.
According to Trump’s weekend announcement, China will be tagged with a 10% tariff. Other countries also export these products to the USA, but Trump didn’t mention any.
In the aerospace industry, Boeing and Airbus will be affected. So will suppliers to the two companies.
JetZero sees big sales potential, but consultants say it won’t be them to bring BWB to market
By Scott Hamilton
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JetZero Z4 commercial BWB and USAF tanker concepts. Credit: JetZero.
Feb. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: There will be a surge in aircraft replacement requirements as today’s Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes age. Simultaneously, the seating capacity of aircraft is increasing, says Michel Merluzeau, the Head of Sales Engineering and Market Development for the start-up company JetZero.
JetZero is developing the first commercial blended wing body (BWB) aircraft, a 250-plus seat design with a goal of reducing fuel consumption by 50% over the remaining Boeing 767s and Airbus A330ceos still in operation.
Merluzeau joined JetZero last year after decades as a consultant in commercial and defense aerospace sectors. He spoke last week to the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in a Seattle suburb.
The replacement forecast and the up-gauging will open a replacement market for at least 7,000 aircraft, Merluzeau said, for which JetZero’s Z4 concept is designed.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 8
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 7, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
We have covered the progress of battery-based aircraft and hybrids, where the last Corner was about the most sensible hybrids, the mild hybrids. Now, we turn to hydrogen-fueled alternatives.
Figure 1. The operation of a PEM fuel cell. Source: NASA.