Airbus NEO won’t kill CSeries: New study

Airbus’ A320 NEO won’t kill the Bombardier CSeries, a new study concludes, issued today by AirInsight.

The study, “The Business Case for the Bombardier CSeries,” which we co-authored, is discussed on the AirInsight blog.

The study began as an update to AirInsight’s report in December 2009 on the prospect of re-engining the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families. As Airbus COO-Customers John Leahy repeatedly asserted that to re-engine the A320 would kill the business case for the CSeries, AirInsight broadened its update into a full, in-depth study. AirInsight concluded that the business case for the CSeries is sound.

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USAF, EADS need to come forward with full details

The USAF and EADS need to come forward with full details to fully explain the latest cock-up (a British term, not an obscene one) in which the Air Force mistakenly sent EADS and Boeing proprietary information about the other company’s KC-X submission.

EADS, the Air Force and Boeing say that when EADS and Boeing discovered the error, the companies began a procedure that has been in place for years to seal up the files and computers and to notify the USAF of the error. The Air Force initially said, in essence, “no harm, no foul.” But then in classic Wikileaks fashion, information dribbled out bit-by-bit that there was more to the story than the Air Force–and EADS–let on.

At a press conference–which we were at–EADS North America CEO Sean O’Keefe gave a detailed response to questions about the matter. But within days, it was charged by Lexington Institute’s Loren Thompson that EADS had actually opened the proprietary file but Boeing had not. He did not cite sources for his information, and his close ties to Boeing immediately raised the suspicion that Boeing leaked this information to him.

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A320neo EIS 2016-17

Airbus has confirmed to us the planned EIS of the A320neo family. The company initially announced only that the A320neo would enter service in the Spring of 2016. A spokesman confirmed our estimates of the family’s EIS:

A320 EIS: Spring 2016

A321 EIS: 4Q2016

A319 EIS: Spring 2017

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It’s official: A320 NEO launched, 2016 EIS

Update, December 1, 0530 PST:

Aviation Week has an interesting piece on what will Boeing do.

Original Post:

Here is the Airbus press release:

Airbus offers new fuel saving engine options for A320 Family
1 December 2010

Airbus has decided to offer for its best-selling A320 Family new fuel saving engines as an option.  Airlines have the choice between CFM International’s LEAP-X engine and Pratt & Whitney’s PurePower PW1100G engine.  Known as the A320neo, this new engine option also incorporates fuel-saving large wing tip devices called Sharklets. Airbus will start deliveries of the A320neo Family in spring 2016.

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Airbus to green light NEO

Update: AirInsight has a couple of posts assessing the impact of NEO.

Bloomberg News just moved this story:

Airbus Said to Plan New A320 Engine Option to Fend Off Rivals

2010-11-30 20:50:43.24 GMT

By Andrea Rothman
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Airbus SAS plans to offer its A320 series of aircraft with an option of more fuel-efficient engines to help defend its position in the single-aisle jet market, said a person familiar with the decision.
The company received backing from parent European Aeronautic, Defense & Space Co. at a meeting today and may announce the decision as early as tomorrow, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan has not yet been made public. Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, would offer the A320 with two new engine options, the person said.
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Laying the groundwork for a Boeing appeal on KC-X

Update, Dec. 1: George Talbot of The Mobile Press-Register has this interesting interview with Michael Wynne, a former top defense department procurement official, who suggests a solution to the KC-X quandary.

Also, at 12:50pm PST: Bloomberg has this story with Boeing BDS CEO Dennis Muilenberg weighing in. It seems the USAF has more ‘splainin’ to do.

Update, Nov. 30, 8PM PST: The New York Times confirms EADS opened Boeing data, Boeing did not; Boeing threatens protest.

Dominic Gates at The Seattle Times has this report.

Original Post:

In what is a wholly transparent move, Boeing is beginning to lay the groundwork for an appeal in the event EADS wins the KC-X contract.

Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, published a commentary yesterday (we only saw it today) entitled “Tanker flap reflects pattern of bias.” In it he makes several allegations, the most serious of which is that EADS read the proprietary document mistakenly sent by the USAF to EADS about Boeing performance data of the KC-767 but Boeing did not read the EADS document and data sent to Boeing by USAF. Thompson does not disclose how he knows this.

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Five reasons for Airbus to proceed with the A320 NEO

Richard Aboulafia, aerospace consultant with The Teal Group, published his monthly two-page newsletter in which he gives five reasons why Airbus should proceed with the A320 New Engine Option (NEO). The newsletter may be downloaded here.

We disagree with one of his conclusions, and that is Delta Air Lines continues to be predisposed toward Boeing. This was certainly true under the previous management (the pre-bankruptcy one) and stems from an exclusive supplier agreement between Delta and Boeing signed c. 1996 and good for 20 years. Boeing agreed not to enforce the contract as a concession to the European Union for approval the following year to merge with McDonnell Douglas, but Delta only ordered Boeing aircraft anyway.

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Boeing: 787 fire caused by FOD, design changes coming, no word on delay

Boeing issued this press release at 3pm PST Nov. 24:

Boeing Initiates Changes to 787 Power Panel, Updates to Software

EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 24, 2010 – Boeing [NYSE: BA] is developing minor design changes to power distribution panels on the 787 and updates to the systems software that manages and protects power distribution on the airplane. These changes come as the result of what has been learned from the investigation of an onboard electrical fire on a test airplane, ZA002, earlier this month in Laredo, Texas.
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Snapshot: EADS press conference, mainly on Tanker and USAF faux pas

We attended a press conference today in Washington (DC) with Sean O’Keefe, CEO of EADS North America, that covered a variety of issues but focused mainly on the KC-X tanker competition and most particularly the news last week that the USAF had sent proprietary information about the Boeing and EADS tanker bids to the wrong company.

First, O’Keefe remains in the neck collar from his near-fatal airplane accident in Alaska August 9 in which former Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and three others were killed. Sean and his teenage son, Kevin, were about five survivors. O’Keefe’s spirits are good and he expressed that the random nature of those killed and who survived is proof that divine intervention is “real.”

Having interviewed O’Keefe on previous occasions, we are gratified to see his recovery progressing and him back at work.

Here is a quick snaphshot of O’Keefe’s remarks:

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How many ways can the USAF screw up KC-X?

Defense News has this story about the USAF sending Boeing and EADS proprietary information about each company’s bids to the other by mistake.

How else can the government screw this competition up?

If you read the post carefully, the USAF also acknowledges for the first time what we have been saying for quite a while: the award will slip to early next year.

Update: It gets worse. Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times said the information including pricing data from each company, which is key in what is a price shoot-out competition.

This could have serious ramifications.

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