Oct. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Engines, engines, engines.
News emerged last week that Rolls-Royce admitted its continuing problems with the Trent 1000 that powers the Boeing 787 now bled over to the Trent 7000.
RR will fall short of delivering the number of engines need to Airbus for the A330neo, meaning fewer deliveries of the airplane this year.
Boeing said it is clearing its inventory of 737 MAXes, but CFM LEAP engines are still late, slowing the effort.
Pratt & Whitney’s GTF engine deliveries to Airbus are caught up, but technical issues still plague in-service engines. CFM still has technical issues as well, though not as severe or persistent as with GTF, with its LEAP engines.
While eyes continue to focus on Boeing’s business case challenges for the New Midmarket Aircraft, the focus on engines has largely been overlooked.
Steve Udvar-Hazy, non-executive chairman of Air Lease Corp., doesn’t think the engines will be ready in time for a 2025 entry-into-service (he predicts 2026-2027). This is because of all the problems they are dealing with, as outlined above.
Hazy is one of the most-clued in industry executives you can find.
Engine OEMs are due to submit their proposals to Boeing for the NMA by the end of the year. Airlines would like two engine choices and there is a contingent within Boeing that would, too.
But because the engine makers don’t subscribe to Boeing’s market demand forecast of 4,000-5,000 Middle of the Market sector airplanes (including Airbus) over 20 years, two of the three want sole-source selection, LNC is told.
The engine OEMs see a market of about half that of Boeing.
With Airbus assumed to account for half the MOM sector, the business case for the airplane depends in large part on whether Boeing’s forecast or everyone else’s is correct. The engine makers then split the Boeing share of the MOM sector and even with the aftermarket MRO business model used by engine makers for decades, these OEMs remain skeptical.
Boeing also wants a share of the engine OEM after-market largess, LNC is told—because that’s where the money is. Needless to say, the engine OEMs are less than thrilled at this desire.