Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
A350 EIS delayed from 2H2013 to 1H2014
EADS announced today (Thursday in France, Wednesday night in Seattle) what many of us have been expecting for some time: the entry-into-service (EIS) of the A350-900 will slip into 2014 from late 2013.
“Maturity of the A350 XWB main components at Final Assembly start remains one of the Group’s top priorities. Start of Final Assembly is now scheduled for Q1 2012 and Entry-into-Service is now scheduled for H1 2014,” EADS said in its earnings release. As a result of the delay, EADS is taking a 200m Euro charge.
The program has had several creeping delays, slipping from an EIS of the first half of 2013 to the second half of the year, with very few deliveries listed in the Ascend data base–just five, starting with launch customer Qatar Airways.
We previously opined that we thought the first delivery would slip into the first half of 2014.
Each delay of the A350 program and the individual models allows Boeing to recover some breathing room on the 787 program and to develop the 787-9. The delay of the A350-1000 greatly benefits Boeing as it decides what to do with the future of the 777, through minor or major enhancements, at a time when cash flow continues to be constrained by the 787 and 747-8 programs and development of the 737 MAX.
The news comes just in advance of the Dubai Air Show, where Boeing is expected to announce a number of 777 orders from Emirates Airlines and possibly other carriers. Assembly of the 1,000th 777–for Emirates–began November 9 in Everett (WA).
Airbus also terminated the A340 program, it was announced in the EADS earnings release.
AirInsight takes a close look at the GTF, CFM LEAP
AirInsight’s Ernie Arvai has a long analysis of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan and CFM LEAP engine.
It is very detailed, and involves information obtained from both companies.
737 MAX vs A320neo: the debate continues
During yesterday’s tele-press conference by Boeing with a program update for the 737 MAX, 737 chief program engineer John Hamilton frequently said the MAX has a 7% operating cost advantage over the A320neo.
He also touted the advantages of the 737-900ER over the A321, with the obvious implications that the 737-9 MAX will have an advantage over the A321neo.
Here is a recap by the Puget Sound Business Journal (there are many others which may be found through Google News).
AirInsight, our affiliate, has written several pieces of the 737NG and 737 MAX vs the A320 family, both legacy and NEO.
See the following articles for additional color on this debate.
More analysis on 787 accounting block, break-even
Update: Javier has answered (or responded to, depending on your viewpoint) many of our reader comments here.
Original Post:
A blog of which we were previously unaware came to our attention late last week that has the best, most comprehensive analysis of the 787 financial picture that we have seen anywhere by anyone.
This post is very long. Called “The Blog By Javier,” it is written by Javier Irastorza. He works for Airbus Military on the A400M program, which will automatically make his analysis suspect in some quarters. But we were darned impressed by this analysis.
Odds and Ends: Qatar, Cargolux and GE
For those who don’t believe there was a connection between the Cargolux-Boeing-GE dispute and the 787 and Qatar, watch the Dubai Air Show. We’re hearing Qatar will sign announce it has selected GEnx for the 787.
Speaking of Max, Boeing didn’t say much about the 737 MAX on the earnings call. In fact, Jim McNerney was downright ambiguous. Boeing is still considering where to build the airplane and it’s still talking to customers. Boeing said in August at MAX’s unveiling that design details would be forthcoming the following month. November is around the corner and we’re still waiting.
Boeing’s union nemesis, IAM 751, is already reaching out to membership about “wants” for contract negotiations next year. Overhanging negotiations will be the NLRB complaint–testimony is supposed to begin next month–and the MAX assembly site. Our prediction: this will be purely a testosterone contest. We have dour predictions at this point.
Airbus and the A350: assembly is supposed to begin by year end with first flight next year. We’ll see.
“Optimizing” bad news
You have to hand it to the public relations staff for some real chutzpah.
Air Berlin has been struggling for years, over-ordering aircraft and canceling some of them (Boeing 787s among them). Today the airline deferred Airbus and Boeing airplanes and issues a press release entitled, “AirBerlin optimizes Airbus and Boeing order book.”
A hint of things to come–Lufthansa 787 order?
Lufthansa Technik “is set to become a leading 787 MRO” following a deal with JAL, blares a headline in AviTrader’s current issue of MRO magazine.
The magazine writes:
Lufthansa Technik will become one of the world’s leading 787 MRO providers after concluding a Total Component Support (TCS) contract with
Japan Airlines (JAL) to support its fleet of 787 Dreamliners. The agreement runs for a term of 10 years and will see the MRO provide material
support, including repairs and logistics services, for JAL’s fleet of 35 Dreamliners from the moment its first aircraft is delivered next year. Lufthansa
Technik will supply its customer with materials from Tokyo as well as from its existing material locations in Frankfurt and Hamburg.
JAL has GEnx engines on its 787s, which may give GE the edge in engine selection for Lufthansa.
The German airline has been evaluating the Airbus A350 XWB and the 787 for many months for what would be a huge order, perhaps 150, across the Lufthansa group.
Airbus takes on MAX and says best Boeing can get is 8%
Note: Plane Talking has this detailed story about NEO v MAX.
Over at AirInsight, we have published a long, long piece (some 3,500 words) stemming from a briefing we had at ISTAT Europe in Barcelona about the A320neo vs the 737NG and 737 MAX. The post is here.
Airbus believes Boeing cannot achieve the 10%-12% lower fuel burn it advertises with the smaller fan-diameter CFM LEAP engine. The best Boeing can do, in Airbus’ estimation, is 8%.
Take a read. This is the most detailed product comparison in the public domain yet.