Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
Boeing (doesn’t) prepare to deliver first 747-8F and we look at the program; update 9/17
Update, Sept. 17: Boeing must feel snake-bit.
We had boarded our flight to ISTAT Barcelona and were still at the gate in Seattle when news erupted that the first delivery of the 747-8F to Cargolux is off. AirInsight has a commentary on this. We expect to pick up some intel on the issue, perhaps as early as the Sunday night reception but otherwise Monday or Tuesday. Watch our reporting from Barcelona.
Original Post
As Boeing prepares for delivery ceremonies for the 747-8F to Cargolux Airlines September 19—an event we will miss because of travel in Europe to the ISTAT conference—The Boeing Co., its employees, suppliers, and the airline personnel are justifiably excited.
Not only does this represent the hand-over after a two year delay in a difficult program, it represents the largest airliner Boeing has ever built, the latest and most advanced version of the venerable 747 but it also represents what is almost certainly the last 747 model that will ever be built.
As cool and as whiz-bang as the 747-8 is (though obviously, Lufthansa’s 747-8I will have more panache than a freighter), our thoughts go in a different direction.
Boeing at APEX, Pratt & Whitney’s dilemma
Over at our affiliate, AirInsight, there is a 27 minute video of Randy Tinseth, VP of Marketing at Boeing, making a presentation and our think piece about Pratt & Whitney’s dilemma following the launch of the Boeing 737 MAX.
See both pieces here.
Additional: Aspire Aviation today published a long piece about the 777X. See the story here. Update, Sept. 14: Aeroturbopower comments on the fuel burn analysis for the 777X. Update, 230pm PDT: Jon Ostrower has this article on 777X.
Odds and Ends: ARJ-21, C919, MAX, 777X
There are several stories of note today:
Aviation Week: China’s turboprops exports lead the way.
Aviation Week: Plan for C919 hits snags.
FlightGlobal: Caution welcomed on Boeing’s 737 MAX.
FlightGlobal: Emirates presses Boeing for better 777.
Seattle Times: WA State has to keep 737 MAX.
737-9 Mission creep, Odds and Ends and 500,000
Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh was clear: he wants changes to the 737 MAX to be kept to a minimum.
This will keep the R&D cost down–a figure Corporate CFO James Bell said on the 2Q earnings call would be 10%-15% that of an entirely new airplane ($10bn-$12bn, depending on who’s figuring; it is unclear how much of the R&D is paid by CFM).
But there is pressure to add range to the 737-MAX 9 (henceforth we’ll be referring to individual models of the MAX series as the -7, -8 and -9 and the family as a whole as just MAX). The 737-9 falls short of a true 757 replacement in range.
Assessing the 737-900ER vs Airbus NEO
AeroTurboPower has an interesting piece looking at the fuel burn and cash costs of the 737-900ER vs the A320neo and A321neo.
The post is noteworthy as an independent analysis to Airbus or Boeing. Boeing, of course, claims the 737-900ER is more efficient that either the A321 Legacy or A321neo.
737MAX costs vs A320neo
AirInsight takes a look at the Boeing claims of 4%-7% cost advantages of the 737MAX vs the A320neo. The analysis comes to a slightly different conclusion than Boeing.
The X-Factor, this time at Boeing
Boeing announced the name of its new 737 re-engined aircraft and like Airbus for the A350 XWB, there is now and X-Factor with Boeing: the 737 MAX-7/8/9.
Precise details on the MAX remain uncertain; Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said engineering is still deciding whether to go for a 66-inch or 68-inch fan diameter for the CFM LEAP-1B. Although Albaugh said it is believe the larger fan still will not require a longer nose gear, with a ripple-effect of changes to the fuselage, he added that there is a contingency determined if a longer gear proves necessary with the larger fan.
Albaugh said final design configuration is still some weeks away.
It’s official: 737NE launched
Here is Flight Global’s story with a couple of artist renderings of the airplane.
Boeing made it official this morning: launch of the 737NE (New Engine) has been approved, bypassing the Authority to Offer.
Boeing said it has commitments for 496 NEs from five airlines. Only American Airlines has been announced, for 100. We expect Southwest Airlines to be another. Delta Air Lines’ order for 100 737-900ERs did not include conversion rights.
Boeing claims the 737NE will be 7% more efficient operating costs than the A320neo, but in its announcement today did not detail how. Boeing also says the 737NE will have 16% lower fuel burn than today’s A320 and 4% lower than the neo.
737RE up at Boeing Board today
Update, 930am: The Daily Express of L0ndon (of all places) reported yesterday BCA got the approval Friday for the 737RE and that the announcement is to come today. Thanks to Heidi Wood of Morgan Stanley for this one.
Original Post:
Approval for Authority to Offer the 737 re-engine is expected to come from the Boeing Board of Directors today, according to sources.
Last Friday we published our story reporting this in Commercial Aviation Online in London and, per our arrangement with CAO, the following day on this site.
Bloomberg News published this story later on Friday also confirming ATO was expected.
Official launch of the airplane isn’t expected until fall, likely after the October Board meeting, predicts Credit Suisse.
Full design definition of the 737RE isn’t expected until next month, we are told. While it is widely expected that the CFM LEAP engine will have a 66-inch fan in order to avoid any changes to the landing gear that would complicate the work statement, as of today this isn’t definitively settled. A 68 inch fan is still a possibility, though it’s considered more remote.