Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Do airframers listen to customers?
Aviation Week has an interesting story asking whether airframers truly listen to customers when designing airplanes.
The question is not an idle one. Airbus and Boeing constantly say they do, but Airbus is getting loads of flak from Qatar Airways and Emirates Airlines (both of whom like to negotiate in the press) over the revamped A350-1000 announced at the Paris Air Show. Qatar says the changes came as a surprise (we were told otherwise at the time by Airbus).
Airbus CEO Tom Enders since said Airbus won’t keep changing the A350’s design in response to customer comments. One can appreciate how he might be tired of this. The A350 went through five or six iterations in response to customer comments, a somewhat awkward display.
More on MAX: Aspire Aviation does long analysis
Aspire Aviation in Hong Kong has done a long analysis on the Boeing 737 MAX, capturing what Boeing has said recently along with original information and data from other sources. This article may be found here.
Meantime, the image below is from Randy Tinseth’s blog and neatly illustrates points made by John Hamilton, the chief 737 program engineer, during his recent conference call with media.
Airbus has a different view, as we extensively reported here.
The MAX is still being defined, as Boeing will readily admit, but it is showing customers specifications. Boeing is not yet ready to write performance guarantees because the specifications aren’t firmed up yet. Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, was quoted at the Dubai Air Show saying he hopes to firm up the first contract perhaps by year end or early into the new year. We believe this would likely be American Airlines, the first customer for the MAX (but not the launch operator).
A350 EIS delayed from 2H2013 to 1H2014
EADS announced today (Thursday in France, Wednesday night in Seattle) what many of us have been expecting for some time: the entry-into-service (EIS) of the A350-900 will slip into 2014 from late 2013.
“Maturity of the A350 XWB main components at Final Assembly start remains one of the Group’s top priorities. Start of Final Assembly is now scheduled for Q1 2012 and Entry-into-Service is now scheduled for H1 2014,” EADS said in its earnings release. As a result of the delay, EADS is taking a 200m Euro charge.
The program has had several creeping delays, slipping from an EIS of the first half of 2013 to the second half of the year, with very few deliveries listed in the Ascend data base–just five, starting with launch customer Qatar Airways.
We previously opined that we thought the first delivery would slip into the first half of 2014.
Each delay of the A350 program and the individual models allows Boeing to recover some breathing room on the 787 program and to develop the 787-9. The delay of the A350-1000 greatly benefits Boeing as it decides what to do with the future of the 777, through minor or major enhancements, at a time when cash flow continues to be constrained by the 787 and 747-8 programs and development of the 737 MAX.
The news comes just in advance of the Dubai Air Show, where Boeing is expected to announce a number of 777 orders from Emirates Airlines and possibly other carriers. Assembly of the 1,000th 777–for Emirates–began November 9 in Everett (WA).
Airbus also terminated the A340 program, it was announced in the EADS earnings release.
AirInsight takes a close look at the GTF, CFM LEAP
AirInsight’s Ernie Arvai has a long analysis of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan and CFM LEAP engine.
It is very detailed, and involves information obtained from both companies.
737 MAX vs A320neo: the debate continues
During yesterday’s tele-press conference by Boeing with a program update for the 737 MAX, 737 chief program engineer John Hamilton frequently said the MAX has a 7% operating cost advantage over the A320neo.
He also touted the advantages of the 737-900ER over the A321, with the obvious implications that the 737-9 MAX will have an advantage over the A321neo.
Here is a recap by the Puget Sound Business Journal (there are many others which may be found through Google News).
AirInsight, our affiliate, has written several pieces of the 737NG and 737 MAX vs the A320 family, both legacy and NEO.
See the following articles for additional color on this debate.
More analysis on 787 accounting block, break-even
Update: Javier has answered (or responded to, depending on your viewpoint) many of our reader comments here.
Original Post:
A blog of which we were previously unaware came to our attention late last week that has the best, most comprehensive analysis of the 787 financial picture that we have seen anywhere by anyone.
This post is very long. Called “The Blog By Javier,” it is written by Javier Irastorza. He works for Airbus Military on the A400M program, which will automatically make his analysis suspect in some quarters. But we were darned impressed by this analysis.