Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
American to announce big order Wednesday
Flightblogger confirms American will announce a big single-aisle order Wednesday.
We understand it will be a split between Airbus and Boeing. We think we have a basic understanding of the broad details but not yet solid enough to go into print. We’re working on it.
Wednesday is also American’s 2Q earnings call. The announcement is expected before the call, so expect lots of conversation on the call. The webcast information is here.
737RE in 2017, NSA in 2021
In the rapidly changing situation at Boeing over the future of the 737 class of aircraft, it appears almost certain that Boeing will move forward with a re-engine of the 737 and follow it with the New Small Airplane a short time later, under the current thinking.
We reported the possibility Boeing may do both June 15, becoming the first outlet to do so. This posting explains the rationale. Boeing recognizes that the 737 must be replaced, regardless of the re-engining.
Whereas the prospective EIS of the NSA was 2019-2020, we now have learned 2021 would be the new target date. We reported yesterday the NSA had moved from 2019-2020 to the 2020-2025 period but “closer” to 2020.
The 737RE EIS is now targeted for 2017. Fuel burn target is the A320neo minus a couple of percentage points. As we reported this week in another post today, Boeing figures the all-in cash cost gives the 737RE an 8% advantage over the A320neo.
Boeing’s American dilemma
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Bloomberg has this story about the competition.
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Wall Street Journal has this story.
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Here is a story we did for Commercial Aviation Online on the American Airlines aircraft order situation.
| Date: | 18/07/2011 10:37 |
| Source: | Commercial Aviation Online |
| Location: | Seattle |
| By: | Scott Hamilton |
Boeing has a major dilemma facing it in the hot competition with Airbus for a major order from American Airlines.
The deal could be decided as early as this week, and as of Friday, neither company was confident of the outcome. American wants to replace its fleet of more than 200 ageing Boeing MD80s and the large fleet of Boeing 757s. An order for between 200-250 aircraft is widely expected.
Countdown to 737RE or NSA: Odds now favor Re-engine
It’s been a slow but steady shift in Boeing’s thinking that became evident during the pre-Paris Air Show briefings: Boeing is warming to the idea of re-engining the 737. According to sources with direct knowledge of the situation, it is likely officials will choose to do so and push out development of the New Small Airplane (NSA), with an EIS for the latter in the early half of the 2020 decade instead of 2019 or 2020 that Boeing has been talking about.
Market sees 737 sales lagging, but matches 2010–so far
Here is a story we did for Commercial Aviation Online.
| Date: | 12/07/2011 11:40 |
| Source: | Commercial Aviation Online |
| Location: | Seattle |
| By: | Scott Hamilton |
Boeing took a drubbing in the headlines from the Paris Air Show as Airbus racked up more than 600 orders for its A320neo family while there were few announcements for the rival 737.
Many of the neo orders and some of the 737 orders have yet to be converted to firm contracts, largely a formality, but through June, Airbus is ahead of Boeing in this market segment. Boeing reported 141 gross orders and 104 net orders for the 737. Airbus reports 706 gross orders and 618 net orders for its A320 family.
A321neo best to replace 757: AirInsight
AirInsight today published a short report comparing the Boeing 737-900ER with the Airbus A321neo and concluded the neo is the best choice to replace the Boeing 757.
See the AirInsight synopsis here.
The report is particularly timely with the pending American Airlines decision we’ve all read so much about.
How will Boeing profit from tanker contract?
Just whenever you think there’s nothing more to write about the air force aerial tanker, more news pops up.
The news that Boeing would first lose $300m on the initial KC-46A tanker contract, and now perhaps another $400m (will there be still more to come?), isn’t particularly surprising.This is on top of the $600m the USAF (read that “taxpayers” agreed to absorb of the first $1bn in excess program costs.
In fact, when the first loss projection was announced, Wall Street aerospace analysts noted the news but shrugged it off as falling under the “what did you expect?” category. We didn’t even both to write about it, except in passing.
Airbus affirms A350-800 future, but skeptics doubt it
Airbus confirmed at the Paris Air Show what we reported two weeks earlier, and that is the A350-1000 was going to be rescheduled to allow Rolls-Royce and Airbus to tweak the airplane for more power, longer range and higher payload.
At the same time, Airbus announced an 18 month rescheduling of the A350-800 to divert resources to the A350-900, the first of the three models planned to enter service, now promised for late 2013–a slide of at least a half year already.
In conjunction with the -800’s rescheduling, Airbus announced that 42 orders shifted from the -800 to the -900. While slightly more than 100 orders remain and Airbus denied market questions about whether the -800 will survive, one aerospace analyst would view cancellation of the -800 in a positive light.
Here is the story we did last week for Commercial Aviation Online.
Countdown at American for huge order
American Airlines is believed ready to decide on replacing as many as 250 narrow-bodies in its fleet as early as this week.
The Wall Street Journal published this report Sunday outlining the stakes.
We suggested recently that AA could split the order, sticking with Boeing for the 737-800 to replace more than 200 aging MD-80s; and the Airbus A321neo to replace the more than 100 Boeing 757s.
The competition is a tough one, as The WSJ article details. As for the aircraft, we’re not sure adding A320 Legacy airplanes to the fleet in place of the 737-800, in and of itself, makes a lot of sense unless (1) American needs more airplanes quicker than Boeing can provide to replace the gas-guzzling MD-80s and (2) it’s tied to a deal for the A320/321 neo.
AirInsight will publish a report Tuesday (July 12) examining the economics of which airplane best replaces American’s 757s: the 737-900ER or the A321neo.
“I (heart) A380”
People in the aviation business have a warped sense of humor (except for one aerospace company, apparently, which could be characterized as the Grinch of Aerospace).
At the Paris Air Show, Airbus planned a big roll-out of its new A380 promotion.
Airbus image
But it didn’t quite work out that way.