Leeham News and Analysis
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Outlook 2024: Boeing needs a boring year in 2024
By Dan Catchpole
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Jan. 4, 2024 © Leeham News: Boeing’s priorities in 2024 are clear: get the job done on time and without drama, and don’t cause any scandals. In short, it needs a boring year. However, to do that, the aerospace giant has to overcome several obstacles.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes has to increase production rate goals, sign a new labor contract and help suppliers along. That means going against Boeing management’s cultural predilection for extracting concessions from unions and contractors.
Defense is a mess, and there’s little reason to think it will improve much this year. Several fixed-cost programs are bleeding money. Boeing is competing for three major United States Department of Defense programs, but it is not favored to win any of them. This year, leadership is expected to focus on controlling costs.
A new position of executive vice president and chief operating officer for The Boeing Co. was created last month. Stephanie Pope, previously CEO of Boeing Global Services, was named to fill this slot. She’s an unknown to some customers and hasn’t run a company approaching the size of Boeing. She’ll have to prove herself in this new position of greater responsibilities than she’s ever had.
Related Articles
- Boeing files for permits to increase capacity of Charleston 787 plant to produce 14 a month. Charleston Post and Courier.
- Charleston has room to increase 787 production. LNA, November 2020.
- 2024 will be key year for Boeing labor relations. LNA, November 2020.
Summary
- BCA has to smoothly increase production rates.
- Sign a new contract with Machinists.
- Staunch the bleeding at Boeing Defense, Space and Security.
JAL A350 ground collision is first hull loss by damage and fire of an all-composite airplane
Jan. 2, 2024, (c) Leeham News: Editor’s Note: With the ground collision (Jan. 2, 2024, Tokyo time) of a Japan Air Lines Airbus A350 and its destruction by fire, we’re reposting this article from March 2009. It was then that Boeing was in early production of the 787 and the Federal Aviation Administration was studying what Special Conditions to require in the event of a fire on a composite passenger airliner. The 787 was the first all-composite airliner and how composite of this scale would react in a fire was then mostly known. The only all-composite, large airplane fire had been that of the B-2 Stealth bomber.
Video via Times of London.
LNA spoke with airport fire officials about preparing for a composite airliner fire and we discussed the challenges the US Air Force had in putting out the B-2 fire. Fires occurred on two 787s after entry into service: a JAL aircraft that was parked at the Boston airport after a flight from Tokyo and an Ethiopian 787 parked in London. The JAL fire was traced to a battery. Airport firefighters faced challenges in putting out the fire. The airplane was heavily damaged but repaired. The Ethiopian 787 fire was traced to pinched wires creating a short at the emergency transmitter locator in the top of the fuselage. The plane was heavily damaged but repaired. The JAL A350 is the first hull loss of a composite airliner and the first by fire.
Investigators will learn all kinds of lessons from the A350 accident.
All passengers and crew on the A350 escaped. The five crew on the Japanese Coast Guard airplane involved in the collision died.
The March article is below.
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 21, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by the FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We looked at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines last week; now, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to look at the economics of the original 767 versus a re-engined one.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines give the 767 better fuel economics.
- The Cash Operating Costs improvement is affected by higher engine maintenance costs and higher underway and airport fees as a re-engined 767 is a heavier aircraft.
Pontifications: Pope, the enigma
Editor’s Note: This is the final week of 2023 scheduled publications for LNA. Our usual posts this week will appear on Thursday and Friday. Then we’re taking the Christmas-New Year’s week off and will resume posting on Jan. 2, 2024, provided there is no breaking news of importance during the holidays.
Dec. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: Naming Stephanie Pope to the new position of EVP and COO of The Boeing Co. raises more questions than it answers.
By Scott Hamilton
Stephanie Pope. Credit: Pope’s Linkedin.
Pope was CEO of Boeing Global Services, the only company unit currently making a consistent profit. She was named to the new corporate-level post on Dec. 11. She immediately became the favorite to succeed president and CEO David Calhoun. Calhoun, 66, was given an extension of up to five years from Boeing’s mandatory retirement age of 65. Some press reports suggested Calhoun may retire in the next year or two.
Stan Deal, the CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, and Brian West, the corporate CFO, were said to have been in contention for Calhoun’s job. But Deal, who is also an EVP of The Boeing Co., is 59. At this age, any elevation to corporate CEO was a long shot at best. Calhoun brought West into the CFO position in August 2021. He’s 54, which could have given him 10 years as CEO if Calhoun steps down next year. Pope, at age 51, has four years to age 55 and then 10 years to be CEO.
In four years, Calhoun will be 70—the outside age the Board of Directors gave him with the extension.
Why Is all this timeline business relevant? Here’s why.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 42. Improving the learning curve
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 15, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in flight tests, we now look at the production phase.
Last week, we discussed why production costs vary over time and why they can be up to 500% higher for the first units than for units past 400 to 500 aircraft produced. Now we go deeper into the reasons behind this and what can be done to improve the situation.
Figure 1. The program plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 14, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We have described the history of the 767 and the key data of the different variants in last week’s article. Now, we look at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines and what consequences these bring.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines for the 767 mean changes to the landing gear and structures to house larger and heavier engines.
- For the payload capacity to stay the same a deeper grab in the 767-400 toolbox is necessary than just adopting the landing gear.
Re-engining the Boeing 767
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 7, 2023, © Leeham News: We wrote last week that Boeing is considering re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop after 2027. The 767 is still an interesting aircraft for companies flying cargo and for the US Air Force, which is taking delivery of the tanker version KC-46A for years to come.
The problem is that all the 767 versions are using engines from the 1970s (GE CF6, PW4000, RB211), and as the FAA has accepted the ICAO emission rules from 2017, the production of the 767 with these engines has to stop after 2027. As reported last week, Beoing is looking at re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop.
We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to look at the different possible configurations with new engines and model their performance data and operating economics.
Summary:
- The Boeing 767 needs new engines if it shall be produced after 2027.
- While the engine candidate is clear, the rest of a re-engined 767 can be configured in several ways. We look at what different configurations bring in operational performance.
Boeing returns to PNAA
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing and the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance have kissed and made up.
After a two-year boycott, Boeing returns this year as a sponsor to PNAA, a suppliers-oriented trade group, and to sponsor and provide speakers to its annual conference in February. Boeing abruptly withdrew from the organization and the conference in 2022, citing a sexual discrimination lawsuit that had been filed by one of its women employees against the then executive director, a male, and the male-dominated Board of Directors. However, PNAA’s staff was predominately women and women were represented on the Board. The lawsuit was settled for undisclosed terms.
Boeing’s stated reason for withdrawal was questioned by some familiar with the background. Additionally, there has long been an occasional tense relationship between PNAA and Boeing. Analysts and consultants who appeared as speakers or panelists long criticized Boeing for its Partnering for Success program, which some viewed as brow-beating suppliers into cutting prices.
Pontifications: Airbus ponders A330neo MRTT, Boeing ponders KC-46A re-engine
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: In a reversal of intent, the airplane that Airbus may submit to the US Air Force for the next round of aerial tanker procurement may be based on the A330neo instead of the current production A330-200ceo MRTT.
The Air Force, however, may forego competition between Airbus and Boeing and place a sole-source follow-on order with Boeing for the KC-46A tanker, based on the 767-200ER. Boeing already has a contract for 179 KC-46As, and the USAF appears to be leaning toward a sole-source award. Political pressure from Airbus partisans and others who favor competition may prevail.
Related articles
- Airbus to develop second generation MRTT based on A330neo. (Aviation Week.)
- Lockheed Martin sees MRTT as complimentary to KC-46A
- Lockheed bows out, Airbus to continue, Boeing favored in tanker procurement
Airbus wants to discontinue production of the A330-200ceo-based MRTT. The neo-based version would be based on the A330-800. Sales of the -800 are poor—fewer than 20 have been ordered. An -800 based MRTT will breathe life into the nearly still-born model.
- Boeing considers re-engining the 767-300ERF and the KC-46A.
- KC-46A, 767-200, A330 MRTT exempt from 2027 ICAO standards.
Preview of Rolls-Royce Capital Markets Day
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 27, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s Capital Market Day is tomorrow. “Our multi-year transformation programme will deliver a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. Join us to find out how we are going to do it and what a stronger Rolls-Royce will mean for all our stakeholders,” the company says on its website.
“Our multi-year transformation programme has started well with progress already evident in our strong initial results and increased full-year guidance for 2023. There is much more to do to deliver better performance and to transform Rolls-Royce into a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. We will share the outcome of our strategy review along with medium-term goals for the Group in November,” said CEO Tufan Erginbilgic on its website.
It has some other questions to answer, too.
An order for Airbus A350-1000s was expected to be announced at the Dubai Air Show by Emirates Airline. Another order, for a combination of A350-900s, -1000s, and A320neo, was expected from Turkish Airlines. Neither materialized—and, LNA is told, issues with the Trent XWB 97 were one reason.