Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
FAA Authorizes 787 Test Flights
Statement from Secretary LaHood and FAA Administrator Huerta:
As part of our ongoing efforts to determine the root cause of recent Boeing 787 lithium-ion battery incidents, the FAA will permit Boeing to conduct test flights of 787 aircraft to gather additional data. The traveling public’s safety is our highest priority. These test flights will be an important part of our efforts to ensure the safety of passengers and return these aircraft to service.
Test flights are commonly used as part of research and development. In this case, the primary purpose of the test flights will be to collect data about the battery and electrical system performance while the aircraft is airborne.
As with all test flights, these will be subject to a number of restrictions, including extensive pre-flight testing and inspections and in-flight monitoring in order to ensure the highest levels of safety. The flights will be conducted in defined airspace over unpopulated areas.
The test flights will be conducted through a Special Airworthiness Certificate (for the purpose of Research and Development) under the following requirements:
Before flight, the crew must perform a number of inspections to verify that the batteries and cables show no signs of damage.
Pre-flight checklist will include a mandatory check for specific status messages that could indicate possible battery problems.
While airborne, the crew must continuously monitor the flight computer for battery related status messages, and land immediately if one occurs.
Before the initial test flight, the crew must inspect the airplane’s smoke barriers and insulation to verify that they meet the approved design.
Experimental research and development flights are flown with Boeing aircrews that include only personnel essential to the flight.
In addition to the FAA’s root cause analysis, the FAA is conducting a comprehensive review of the 787’s critical systems, including the aircraft’s design, manufacture and assembly.
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Boeing Statement on Allowed 787 Test Flights
Boeing will resume limited 787 flight test activities soon with a flight of ZA005, the fifth flight test airplane. This activity has been approved by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.
This flight test activity will allow Boeing to conduct testing of the in-flight performance of the airplane’s batteries, which will provide data to support the continuing investigations into the cause of the recent 787 battery incidents.
Flight test activities are different from commercial flight operations and, because of the test environment, special considerations are always in place when the FAA permits such operations. With that said, while our work to determine the cause of the recent battery incidents continues in coordination with appropriate regulatory authorities and investigation agencies, we are confident that 787 is safe to operate for this flight test activity. As additional precautions, we have implemented additional operating practices for test flights, including a one-time preflight inspection of the batteries, monitoring of specific battery related status messages, and a recurring battery inspection.
The company has marshaled an extensive team of hundreds of experts and they are working around the clock focused on resolving the 787 battery issue and returning the 787 fleet to full flight status. We are working this issue tirelessly in cooperation with our customers and the appropriate regulatory and investigative authorities.
At the same time, a dedicated team of professionals is continuing to produce 787s and prepare them for delivery.
As we have said before, the entire Boeing team deeply regrets the impact that recent events have had on our customers and their passengers. We are doing all we can to reach a resolution and begin again to meet their expectations.
NTSB press briefing on 787-short circuit came first, then fire
The National Transportation Safety Board held its second full media briefing on the investigation of the Boeing 787 battery fire Jan. 9 aboard a Japan Air Lines aircraft at Boston.
Deborah Hersman is chair of the NTSB. Following our usual format for live coverage, we’re synopsizing and paraphrasing her comments.
Analysis of 787 situation ahead of NTSB briefing
Note: The National Transportation Safety Board will brief the media today at 11am ET. We will have a live update on this blog.
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The flurry of news late yesterday for the Boeing 787, its grounding, a ferry flight, potential interim actions and fixes to get the airplane back in the air, and comments from the NTSB chairperson all combine to suggest to us–and to others–that Boeing indeed is making good progress.
Although Deborah Hersman, chair of the federal investigatory agency, said it will be weeks before definitive answers are forthcoming about the cause of the Japan Air Lines battery fire and the ANA battery thermal runaway, this was immediately seen as a positive development. “Weeks” instead of “months” is the key take-away from this.
Hersman went on to say that she would not “categorically” call the lithium ion battery “unsafe,” but that risks posed by the technology had to be properly “mitigated.” This is a very important statement.
Fast-moving action on 787 in advance of NTSB briefing Thursday
There have been a number of developments within the past two hours on the Boeing 787 situation. Unfortunately, the key articles are from The Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
- Boeing has a series of design changes it is proposing to the FAA to serve as an interim fix to mitigate fire risk until a permanent solution is found. The WSJ reports that these include spacing the battery cells; adding some rigidity to prevent shifting from vibrations and interfering with electronics; eventually shifting to a new battery altogether; fire containment; and more.
- The WSJ reports that the FAA also wants longer warning times to alert the crew to any problems.
- The paper reports the FAA was still weighing approving a test flight; we heard on the radio after the WSJ posting that this has been done.
- The paper says Boeing hopes to be able to ship new batteries to airlines with grounded airplanes by the end of this month. This might mean flight resumptions in March.
- Moisture protection is also an element of the interim fix.
The WSJ also reported that the NTSB is examining the FAA’s approval and testing process, but we don’t consider this to be particularly new news.
The NTSB has a briefing Thursday at 11am EST. We’ll doing live updates on this blog.
SPEEA posts YouTube video; vows to return to table if Strike Authorization OK’d, contract rejected
SPEEA, the Boeing engineers’ union, posted a YouTube video this afternoon explaining why negotiators are recommending rejection of Boeing’s contract offer and why they are seeking a strike authorization vote.
If members side with the negotiators, SPEEA vows to return to the bargaining table under the supervision of a Mediator to try and reach an agreement before going out on strike. SPEEA says Boeing inserted a “poison pill” into its Best and Final Offer. Also focuses on what is called the Scrap the Cap issue.
KC-46A contract “restructure,” Blue Angels grounded in Sequestration (very local to Seattle)
The US Air Force will have to “restructure” the USAF KC-46A tanker contract with Boeing if Sequestration hits on March 1, according to a new document issued today. The document doesn’t indicate what “restructure” means, but we’d guess the fixed price deal that won Boeing the contract will eventually become a lot more expensive to taxpayers.
Very localized to Seattle, Sequestration also means the Blue Angels will likely be grounded by the Navy as well. This aerobatic group has been a staple of the local Sea Fair for decades, and has been a key in public relations for the Air ForceNavy. While we acknowledge the Blue Angels have nothing to do with readiness, since we live in Seattle, and this is our blog, we get to be highly provincial once in a while.
787 to cost Boeing $6bn in cash-UBS; more on lithium-ion batteries
Update, 7:30am PST: Headline: DJ Boeing 787 Probe Results ‘Probably Weeks Away’ -NTSB Chief
We’re trying to track this down, which we received in an email. (We don’t get Dow Jones.) This seems to us like good news–“weeks” instead of “months”–but we caution about reading too much into this until we get the context.
Update, 7:50am PST: AP has this brief report. “Weeks” instead of “months” does seem encouraging but this sounds like a statement of facts rather than any hint at a breakthrough.
NTSB will have a press conference tomorrow at 11am Eastern.
Here is a story from the Christian Science Monitor yesterday on the batteries.
Original Post:
787 to cost $6bn in cash: So forecasts UBS Securities in a research note today, and this doesn’t really consider the Boeing 787 grounding yet. Writes UBS:
- See 787 as $6B cash drag in 2013: Even assuming a relatively quick solution to battery issue, we still see 787 as a worse cash drag in 2013. We estimate 787 is a ~$6B cash drag in 2013 with ~$7B inventory build more than offsetting ~$1B advance draw assuming Boeing learns like it did on 777. Our forecast is worse compared to Boeing’s outlook for a similar 787 inventory build in 2013 as in 2012 ($5.7B) while extended 787 grounding would result in an even bigger cash burn.
- Cash drag could be worse if battery issue lingers: As long as 787 remains grounded, Boeing is faced with the choice of either slowing production or building physical inventory. It will build inventory for now and we see risk to its $4B+ FCF [free cash flow] guidance on this. Boeing plans to deliver 60+ 787s this year, while we estimate every missed delivery adds $100-120M to our baseline forecast for a $6B 787 cash burn.
Retrospective: Here is the press release from 2005 announcing the selection of lithium-ion batteries for the 787.
Boeing presentation about lithium-ion batteries: In November 2012, a Boeing official made this presentation about these batteries in the context of transporting them in cargo holds.
Among the information on the slides:
Energetic failures (fire and/or explosion) of lithium type cells can occur for a number of reasons including:
- Poor cell design (electrochemical or mechanical)
- Cell manufacturing flaws
- External abuse of cells (thermal, mechanical, or electrical)
- Poor battery pack design or application
- Poor protection electronics design or manufacture
- Poor charger/system design or manufacture resulting in Overcharging of battery
Independent Study: We’ve now linked Airbus and Boeing presentations about lithium-ion batteries. Here is an independent study–all 126 pages of it–about the topic. This is not about aircraft batteries but the principals are the same.
Odds and Ends: FAA outsourced to Boeing; responding to fires-land within 15 minutes
Update, 4:15pm: From Twitter–Glenn Farley is the aviation specialist for KING 5 TV, Seattle:
Looks like Boeing test airplane ZA005 is being readied to carry out battery related test flights. Lots of activity
Original Post:
FAA Outsourced to Boeing: The Seattle Times has a story about how the FAA outsourced certification work to Boeing. Coming from The Times’ Washington bureau, the story notes that “few people” realize this happened. For those of us who follow the industry, this is not new. We also wrote about this shortly after the FAA announced a program review. As our post notes, the FAA’s reliance on OEM representatives has been happening since the agency was formed and by its predecessor.
Responding to fires: Airbus, at its annual safety conference in March 2012, noted that fires can get out of control in as little at eight minutes and aircraft may have as little as 15 minutes to make an emergency landing. These conclusions were unrelated to lithium ion batteries, but referenced fires generally. All we can say is, Holy smokes! Airbus Smoke and Fire Analysis
787 test flights sought: Seattle Times
The Seattle Times is reporting that Boeing is seeking FAA permission to begin test flights.
This, of course, will be good news and it reaffirms reports by others and by us that Boeing and investigations appear to be narrowing the focus of the investigation.