Paris Air Show outlook

There are several items looking at the Paris Air Show outlook:

AirInsight had a live discussion Friday with Addison Schonland, Richard Aboulafia and Ernie Arvai hosting it. The transcript is here.

AirInsight also published a lengthy written preview of what to expect from all the major airframe and engine OEMs here.

Here’s a short-take on Airbus at the show.

Pre-Paris Air Show discussion and AirInsight preview

AinInsight will host a live pre-Paris Air Show discussion Friday, with guest Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group. Sign up to participate here.

Also look for AirInsight’s Paris Air Show preview next week. We historically have done air show previews here but this year we’re combining our thoughts with our partners, Ernie Arvai and Addison Schonland at AirInsight. AirInsight will go down the airframe and engine OEMs with our outlook for orders and announcements.

Addison and I will be at the air show, providing daily coverage. I’m also attending the Boeing pre-air show briefings this week (with news embargoed to June 19); and the EADS/Airbus media day June 18, at which there will be an A350 briefing that had been scheduled for May 31 but was postponed to the media day.

Just a hint of AirInsight’s preview next week: we’re expecting Airbus to announced and firm up several hundred orders for the A320neo and more A380 orders; Boeing may have some 747-8I orders ready to announce; Bombardier should have more CSeries orders; CFM will get its first LEAP-X orders on the neo (and these will be large numbers) while Pratt & Whitney will continue to add to the GTF book; Embraer won’t announce a new airplane and neither will Boeing; ATR (an EADS company) will have a nice turbo-prop order; and we expect a major announcement from Rolls-Royce.

Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip

Here are some more photos from our DC-7B trip. All photos by Scott Hamilton.

PBY

This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?

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We’re back, looking at the WTO’s ruling on Airbus case

While we were gone, the WTO issued its ruling on the Airbus case, which was appealed by both sides.

There’s been plenty post-ruling analyses written already, and since we’re nearly a week later, we’re not going to add much to it except to point you to Aspire Aviation’s analysis and say this: Both sides won some and both sides lost some in this case. The USTR failed to achieve its top goal, and that is to have the WTO rule launch aid illegal, so blocking aid to Airbus to make the A350 XWB was a failure.

Flightblogger has a very good take on how both sides “spin” the final appeal report. The Wall Street Journal has a balanced view on who won and who didn’t.

This is a major defeat for the US–and for Boeing.

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Government subsidies for healthy companies

Two news items caught our eye this morning.

The first was the financial reporting for EADS today. Although EADS reported a small loss on foreign exchange and financing costs, the company increased its cash position. This came under criticism in Germany for the bailout of the A400M program.

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Odds and Ends: Orient Aviation’s profile of John Leahy

This is an abbreviated Odds and Ends; we are traveling this week and next and we’re not sure if we’ll have the chance to update while we are on the road. Meantime:

Orient Aviation magazine has a cover story profile of John Leahy, COO of Customers, and it’s a good one.

FlightGlobal has a long piece about the new competitors to Airbus and Boeing.

This is a frightening story about construction at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport.

An Australian TV station has a special on the Qantas A380/Rolls-Royce incident.

George Talbot of The Mobile Press-Register takes a look at how all the analysts and pontificaters were flummoxed by the Boeing win on the tanker.

What next for EADS, Airbus in US?

With plans to assemble the KC-45 in Mobile (AL) in shreds, what’s next for EADS and Airbus in the US?

EADS and Airbus said creating a final assembly line (FAL) for the KC-X would lead to assembling A330-200Fs there as well. Without the tanker, the business case for the freighter FAL in Mobile didn’t exist, said officials.

The tanker contract is gone and Airbus now has a backlog of only some 50 A330-200Fs.

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Odds and Ends: Boeing to compete production site for new 737-class airplane

Odds and Ends begins below the photo.

We’re not big on photos but every once in a while we find one that we’ve very impressed with–like this (via Airliners.net) at LAX:

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EADS KC-X briefing: No protest

Here is a three page PDF of the slides from the Press Conference: EADS-NA Press Briefing Slides 3-04-11.

EADS today confirmed widely reported stories that it will not protest the USAF contract award of the KC-X tanker to Boeing.

Ralph Crosby, Chairman, and Sean O’Keefe, CEO of EADS North America present.

The following are all paraphrased quotations, not word-for-word direct quotes.

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Tanker updates: More financial analysis, 2020 market share

As interested parties and aviation geeks wait for EADS to make (likely not) and announce its decision (as soon as March 4) on whether to protest the USAF contract to Boeing on the KC-X aerial tanker, more updates have come in.

First is a new market share forecast by G2 Solutions of Kirkland (WA). Next is a new updated from one of our readers, who goes by the screen name OV-099. He previously provided a detailed analysis of where he thinks EADS and Boeing came out on pricing. He updates this with more Net Present Value analysis and other economic data.

Both new items are below the jump.

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