Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Rolls-Royce’s remarkable turnaround
Subscription Required
By Karl Sinclair
March 13, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing should take note. In fairly short order, engine OEM Rolls-Royce (RR), under the stewardship of CEO Tufan Erginbilgic, has turned the corner. The company put a very rough stretch of road behind it.
Once described as a “burning platform” by the CEO, it has been turned into a cash-making machine. The company is now planning a £1bn share buyback purchase in 2025.
LNA looks at the factors responsible for this remarkable turnaround and where the corporation is headed.
Related Article:
NASA hit by DOGE layoffs, office closures; Boeing’s X-66A R&D continues for now
By Scott Hamilton
March 11, 2025, © Leeham News: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is the latest federal government agency to come into Elon Musk’s sights for major cost cutting, and a union representing about 1,000 probationary employees is worried about the impact that massive layoffs on the agency might have on aerospace research and development.
Musk is a special representative of President Donald Trump. He heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has wreaked havoc throughout federal government departments, slashing jobs and programs. NASA (which contracts with Musk’s SpaceX and Boeing, a Musk competitor) announced that it is cutting the Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy, the Office of the Chief Scientist, and the Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility branch in the Office of Diversity and Equal Opportunity.
NASA provides funding and research support to Boeing and other aerospace companies in the commercial aviation, defense, and space sectors. Airbus, Boeing’s prime competitor, has also benefited from NASA research.
Currently, Boeing’s highest-profile projects with NASA are its SLS space booster, the Starliner crew capsule, and the X-66A Transonic Trussed Brace Wing (TTBW) research project for a new commercial airliner.
The SLS and Starliner projects are years behind schedule, billions of dollars over budget and fraught with technical problems. SpaceX competes with both space projects. Boeing previously warned that about 400 employees associated with the SLS could lose their jobs if NASA cancels this program.
Boeing is proceeding with the X-66A research, the company says. Whether NASA continues its funding remains to be seen.
Boeing faces three labor contracts expiring this year
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
March 10, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing endured a costly 53-day strike last fall by its largest and most powerful union, the IAM 751. The November settlement provided a 43% wage hike, added benefits to its 401(k) retirement program for employees, cash bonuses, and a commitment to assemble the next new airplane in the greater Seattle area.
The strike cost Boeing around $10bn in lost revenue and other costs. Boeing nearly exhausted its entire cash reserve, which had been depleted after years of crises. Only by raising $25bn in the equity and debt markets did Boeing avoid draining its bank accounts.
However, settling the strike doesn’t mean its labor issues are over. Three more contracts expire this year, including one with a different IAM district.
The next contract expiring this year is with a Teamsters local in Puget Sound (Seattle). It expires next month.
Here is the lineup of expiring contracts:
- April 2025: Boeing drivers (Teamsters Local 174) in Puget Sound. They haul wing components from Auburn and Frederickson north to Renton and Everett. A strike there would seriously impact Boeing production.
- July 2025: IAM 837 assembly workers in St. Louis. (Building T-7s, F-15s and F-18s.)
- October 2025: Boeing welders in Puget Sound. Small group — a few hundred — represented by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 302. There’s a pretty serious shortage of welders both nationwide and regionally, so they have more leverage than their numbers would indicate. Needed more for plant operations than for production.
- January 2026: SPEEA Wichita Technical and Professional Unit. About 1,600 people are now working for Spirit.
- October 2026: SPEEA Northwest Professional Unit and Technical Unit. Two separate but connected bargaining agreements currently cover slightly more than 17,000 workers in Washington, Oregon, California and Utah.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 12.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 7, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
Last week, we wrote about Pratt & Whitney’s announcement in January: their trials with critical components of their HySIITE engine, Figure 1, showed that they could increase the efficiency of a hydrogen burn engine by 35%!
It does this by intelligently using the water released when hydrogen oxidizes with the air’s oxygen. The water separated from the exhaust is reheated into steam and entered into the engine’s combustion, reducing NOx by 99.3% and increasing the engine efficiency by 35%.
Figure 1. A HySIITE engine with its backflow core part. Source: Pratt & Whitney.
Melrose sets ambitious profit targets, eyes defense boost
By Leeham News Team
Mar 6, 2025, © Leeham News: Melrose Industries, the parent company of GKN Aerospace, has unveiled ambitious financial targets, setting its sights on approximately £5 billion ($6.4 billion) in revenue and £1.2 billion in adjusted operating profit by 2029 after achieving profit last year at the top end of expectations despite industry-wide supply chain issues.
In its latest, full-year earnings report released Thursday, the company reported a 42% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating profit for 2024, to £540 million.
The UK-based aerospace company’s revenue also saw an 11% boost, reaching £3.47 billion, led by the engines division and its “buoyant aftermarket.”
Speaking to analysts, CEO Peter Dilnot said there was “good momentum for 2025” despite a “difficult time for the industry with supply chain challenges.”
“We will see another step up in profit and margins [this year] and complete our extensive restructuring program,” he added. Read more
The FAA: Tombstone Agency or Hampered by Tombstone Politics?
Special Report: The US Federal Aviation Administration is known to be slow in mandating changes related to safety. The FAA has come under widespread criticism for Congress and families of crash victims, in recent history with increasing frequency. Sometimes called the Tombstone Agency, this name emerged after the FAA repeatedly failed to implement safety requirements until after fatal or near-fatal air crashes. But as this Special Report shows, actions—or the lack of them—have roots going back to the propeller days.
Subscription Required
Open to All Readers
By Colleen Mondor
March 6, 2025, © Leeham News: On Jan. 31, two days after the midair collision near Reagan National Airport in Washington (DC), the FAA announced it was indefinitely restricting usage of the two low level helicopter routes through the airspace.
Two weeks later, the Wall Street Journal reported the agency was moving to permanently delete those routes. For longtime FAA observers, this was yet another example of reactionary response, further proof of a “tombstone mentality” that permeates the FAA bureaucracy. For those who subscribe to such a view, the FAA never does anything until the cost is so high there is no other choice. In Flying Blind, Flying Safe, former Department of Transportation Inspector General Mary Schiavo said the attitude was pervasive but then relied upon a common construct to support the claim: the anonymous source. In her case, she quoted a third hand exchange between an unnamed FAA official and unknown journalist where the official apparently said: “We regulate by counting tombstones.”
Related Article
The origins of the tombstone moniker are unknown. On his website, consumer advocate Ralph Nader shares a quote from an unnamed National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) official dating to the time of his 1994 book on airline safety. This official allegedly said, “that the FAA operates under a ‘tombstone imperative’.” The same terminology was headlined by the Tampa Bay Times that year and in 2001 the Washington Post referred to “tombstone regulation” writing that “Great leaps forward in aviation safety often occur after crashes.” Last month, on February 12, the New York Times cited the crashes in DC, Pennsylvania and Alaska, to make the reference again, saying the FAA “has earned the nickname the tombstone agency among aviation safety advocates for not addressing potential problems until disaster struck.”.
Boeing and Airbus: A financial comparison
Subscription Required
By Karl Sinclair
March 3, 2025, © Leeham News: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” famously wrote Charles Dickens in the opening of A Tale of Two Cities.
Boeing 737 MAX. Credit: Boeing.
Indeed, the financial results may indicate that neither Airbus (AB) nor Boeing (BA) are going through the best of times. However, one corporation clearly weathered 2024 better than the other.
While Airbus (with Helicopters, and Defense and Space) and Boeing (with Defense and Space, and Global Services) have other business segments, make no mistake: these are the undercards that make up the heavyweight title fight.
Airbus and Boeing will both go as their respective commercial aircraft divisions do.
Airbus A320neo. Credit: Airbus.
Both OEMs have released 20-year commercial aircraft market projections, forecasting that more than 40,000 new aircraft are needed, worth trillions of euros and dollars. This is the huge prize Airbus and Boeing are grappling with.
Summary
- About 10 years for Boeing’s financial recovery.
- Boeing could deliver its entire backlog, and its debt will still be greater than pre-crisis levels.
- A400M continues to be a drag on Airbus financials.
- Spirit AeroSystems will add to Boeing’s debt.
17 Days and 17 Miles Apart: a book review
Reviewed by Scott Hamilton
Donald J. Porter
McFarland & Co. © 2025. $39.95.
March 1, 2025, (c) Leeham News: 17 Days and 17 Miles Apart is a disappointing book. It’s the second by author Donald Porter. His first, in 2020, is called Flight Failure: Investigating the Nuts and Bolts and Air Disasters and Aviation Safety.
I bought that book then and reviewed it in LNA; it is still available on Amazon. I found Flight Failure more interesting than 17 Days, which seems pretty much like a pick-up of that book. Both recount the 1961 accident of TWA flight 529 in Clarendon Hills (IL). Flight Failure didn’t make my move from Seattle to Chicago last year, so I can’t go back and see if Northwest Airlines flight 706, which happened 17 days after TWA 529 and 17 miles away (after takeoff from Chicago O’Hare Airport), was recounted in Flight. It doesn’t matter. 17 Days suffers from a lot of flaws.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 11.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 28, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
Last week, we discussed the fact that Airbus has moved its hydrogen-fueled ZEROe aircraft into the 2040s and that it will be fuel cell based. It’s a bit of an irony that Pratt &Whitney announced major news for the alternative hydrogen burn alternative four weeks before. Let’s dissect what Pratt & Whitney announced.
Figure 1. Hans von Ohain’s first jet engine started on hydrogen in 1937. Source: Wikipedia.
Embraer reports record revenue in 2024, eyes growth in 2025
By Leeham News Team
Feb 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Embraer closed 2024 on a high note, posting record-breaking revenue and strong aircraft deliveries across its commercial, executive, and defense sectors.
The Brazilian aerospace manufacturer reported total revenues of $6.4 billion for 2024, a 21% increase year on year (YoY), reaching the high end of its guidance range. The company’s Defense & Security division saw 40% revenue growth.
The fourth quarter of 2024 was particularly strong, with revenues totaling $2.31 billion. Embraer delivered 75 aircraft during the period, including 31 commercial jets (20 E2s and 11 E1s) and 44 executive jets (22 light and 22 medium).
For the full year, the company delivered 206 aircraft, comprising 73 commercial jets, 130 executive jets, and three C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft. This marked a 14% increase in total deliveries YoY, aligning with its guidance. Read more