Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
More on Cargolux: weights and fuel burn
Note: Jon Ostrower at Flight Global has this update.
The underlying cause for the Cargolux rejection (the airline’s word) of the delivery of the first two Boeing 747-8Fs is performance.
Performance is based, generally, on two things: weight of the airplane and specific fuel consumption (SFC). If the airplane is too heavy, it may not meet the payload and/or range guarantees. If SFC is below specifications, range/payload may be affected. If you combine the two issues, a larger problem exists.
It’s been well known for more than a year that the 747-8 was “heavy” and the GEnx engines burned too much fuel. Despite the two year delay, GE hasn’t developed a performance improvement package (PIP) for the 747-8 that will be ready before the end of 2013, according to sources familiar with the situation. GE’s priority has been the 787 program.
We asked Boeing about the weight and SFC issues. Here is its response:
What’s behind the Cargolux rejection of the 747-8F delivery
Here’s an expanded version of a story we did for Commercial Aviation Online/Air Transport Intelligence:
The embarrassing last minute refusal by Cargolux air cargo to accept delivery of the first Boeing 747-8F that was planned in elaborate ceremonies 19 September is due to more than it appears on the surface, say several sources at the ISTAT European conference that got underway Sunday night (18 September) in Barcelona.
No source would be identified due to the sensitive nature of the situation and the underlying issues triggering the refusal—an overweight airplane and one that doesn’t meet promised fuel burn specifications—are real and potentially affecting future customer deliveries. But sources are universal in concluding that a new element in the Cargolux situation emerged last week to trigger the refusal.
Cargolux, Boeing and a third party: there’s more than meets the eye
We’re in Barcelona, Spain, for the ISTAT conference, and one of the hot topics at the Sunday night reception is the refusal by Cargolux to take delivery of the first and second 747-8Fs gthat were scheduled for Monday and Wednesday this week.
The companies cited only “contractual issues” that have to be worked out.
We have obtained enough information at the opening night reception to have confidence there is much more at work here than meets the eye. One reader hypothesized that Qatar Airways, which now owns 35% of Cargolux, has a role.
Our information here is that this is indeed the case.
We expect to have a posting on this Monday.
But we are confident there isn’t some new, previously undisclosed issue about the 747-8F’s performance shortfalls that have been well known to Boeing and customers for well over a year.
Reporting from ISTAT next week
We’re off to the ISTAT Europe conference and will be reporting next week from Barcelona.
In the meantime, here is a PR faux pas, one of those embarrassing slips that we with warped senses of humor can’t pass up.
In an email subject line from Airbus this morning:
“Airbus in Illegal delivers first A350 XWB Wing Lower Cover to Airbus in Brought on – Airbus images”.
Here’s the correct headline on the press release itself:
Airbus in Illescas delivers first A350 XWB Wing Lower Cover to Airbus in Broughton
Can you say “Oops”?
Aspire Aviation has a long interview with Virgin America CEO David Cush, in which he makes some interesting comments about the A319neo, the A320neo, the Pratt & Whitney GTF and the CFM LEAP.
Boeing (doesn’t) prepare to deliver first 747-8F and we look at the program; update 9/17
Update, Sept. 17: Boeing must feel snake-bit.
We had boarded our flight to ISTAT Barcelona and were still at the gate in Seattle when news erupted that the first delivery of the 747-8F to Cargolux is off. AirInsight has a commentary on this. We expect to pick up some intel on the issue, perhaps as early as the Sunday night reception but otherwise Monday or Tuesday. Watch our reporting from Barcelona.
Original Post
As Boeing prepares for delivery ceremonies for the 747-8F to Cargolux Airlines September 19—an event we will miss because of travel in Europe to the ISTAT conference—The Boeing Co., its employees, suppliers, and the airline personnel are justifiably excited.
Not only does this represent the hand-over after a two year delay in a difficult program, it represents the largest airliner Boeing has ever built, the latest and most advanced version of the venerable 747 but it also represents what is almost certainly the last 747 model that will ever be built.
As cool and as whiz-bang as the 747-8 is (though obviously, Lufthansa’s 747-8I will have more panache than a freighter), our thoughts go in a different direction.
Boeing’s Albaugh, others discuss aerospace jobs, related issues
Jim Albaugh, the CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, is also chairman of the Aerospace Industries Association. He and several executives in aerospace plus the CEO of AIA held a press conference in Washington (DC) today to comment on the prospective cuts in the defense budget and the impact overall on aerospace jobs.
The other people are: David Hess, president and CEO of United Technologies (parent of Pratt & Whitney, Sikorsky and other companies) and vice chairman of AIA; Marion Blakey, AIA president and CEO; Charles A. Gray. VP and COO of Frontier Electronic Systems; Dawne Hickton, vice chair, president and CEO of RTI International Metals; and Richard McNeel, chairman, president and CEO of LORD Corp.
Here is a synopsis of their comments:
Boeing at APEX, Pratt & Whitney’s dilemma
Over at our affiliate, AirInsight, there is a 27 minute video of Randy Tinseth, VP of Marketing at Boeing, making a presentation and our think piece about Pratt & Whitney’s dilemma following the launch of the Boeing 737 MAX.
See both pieces here.
Additional: Aspire Aviation today published a long piece about the 777X. See the story here. Update, Sept. 14: Aeroturbopower comments on the fuel burn analysis for the 777X. Update, 230pm PDT: Jon Ostrower has this article on 777X.
Odds and Ends: ARJ-21, C919, MAX, 777X
There are several stories of note today:
Aviation Week: China’s turboprops exports lead the way.
Aviation Week: Plan for C919 hits snags.
FlightGlobal: Caution welcomed on Boeing’s 737 MAX.
FlightGlobal: Emirates presses Boeing for better 777.
Seattle Times: WA State has to keep 737 MAX.
737-9 Mission creep, Odds and Ends and 500,000
Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh was clear: he wants changes to the 737 MAX to be kept to a minimum.
This will keep the R&D cost down–a figure Corporate CFO James Bell said on the 2Q earnings call would be 10%-15% that of an entirely new airplane ($10bn-$12bn, depending on who’s figuring; it is unclear how much of the R&D is paid by CFM).
But there is pressure to add range to the 737-MAX 9 (henceforth we’ll be referring to individual models of the MAX series as the -7, -8 and -9 and the family as a whole as just MAX). The 737-9 falls short of a true 757 replacement in range.
Air Show in Everett
During the Labor Day Weekend, the Historic Flight* based at Paine Field in Everett (WA) held its annual air show. All the warbirds owned by the foundation are airworthy. It’s a small collection but the air show brings in a variety of other planes, nearly all of which are airworthy.
Here are a few of the planes, photos we took this weekend.
This restored Boeing 40C is the oldest Boeing aircraft flying. It’s owned by a company in Oregon.
