Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
Boeing SC construction underway for second 787 final assembly line
An Etihad Airlines Boeing 787 undergoing modification for a production issue at the Boeing South Carolina final assembly plant. This rework will shift to Everett exclusively so this rework space can be shifted to a second Final Assembly Line. Credit: Leeham News.
By Scott Hamilton
May 31, 2023, © Leeham News: Charleston (SC)—Boeing is gearing up to add a second production line for the 787 here at what was once the second line to the Everett (WA) plant.
When the COVID-19 pandemic erupted, the Everett line was closed and production was consolidated here. Peak production between the two plants was 14/mo, with seven at each facility. Even before the pandemic, the rate was trimmed to 12/mo. With the pandemic, and airlines refusing to take any airplanes of any times as passenger traffic all but disappeared, production was slashed to 3/mo.
Then, when a production quality issue was discovered, deliveries were halt and production was slashed again, to a mere one-half 787 per month.
Deliveries restarted last year and the production rate returned to 3/mo. At a media briefing yesterday, In advance of the Paris Air Show, the VP and GM of the 787 program, Lane Ballard, announced the rate is going to 4/mo. By year end, Boeing will boost the rate to 5/mo. Boeing previously announced plans to boost the rate to 10/mo by 2025.
In a tour of the production line, the media saw early construction of a second assembly line in the 787 plant as Boeing prepares to add a second line for that previously announced 10 airplane per month, up from a peak of seven. But the Charleston plant has room for more than 10 airplanes per month.
Pontifications: “The need for radical fuel improvements will only increase over time.”
By Scott Hamilton
May 30, 2023, © Leeham News: “The need for radical fuel improvements will only increase over time.”
That’s the definitive conclusion of Arjan Hegeman, GE Aerospace’s general manager of advanced technology.
GE is working on Performance Improvement Packages (PIPs) of its current engine lineup used on Airbus and Boeing airliners. It’s also developing the GE9X, now in testing on the Boeing 777X, and concepts of a hybrid-electric and hydrogen-fueled engine.
But the big bet is on the Open Fan “RISE” (Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable Engines). “The Open Fan technology—it’s a go,” Hegeman declared earlier this month at a press briefing in advance of the Paris Air Show next month.
CFM RISE Open Fan engine. Credit: CFM.
The Open Fan is an evolution of the Open Rotor engine tested in the 1980s. The concept shows a dramatic reduction in fuel consumption compared with the engines of the day. But the counter-rotating rotor design was very noisy. Coupled with other technical challenges and a sudden drop in fuel prices, GE (and rival Pratt & Whitney) dropped the concepts.
But research and development continued. Today, PW thinks its Geared Turbo Fan engine will suffice for the future. Rolls-Royce is also pursuing traditional engine designs. But GE believes the problems of the Open Rotor have been solved for the Open Fan.
How?
It comes down to supercomputing, said Mohamed Ali, GE Aerospace vice president of engineering.
Tanker competition decision expected later this year
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By Scott Hamilton
May 29, 2023, © Leeham News: Procurement of a new round of US Air Force aerial refueling tankers resulted in a shift in strategy driven by new threat assessments, a service spokesperson tells LNA.
The Lockheed Martin LMXT concept. Credit: Lockheed Martin.
“The Next Generation Air-Refueling System (NGAS) is being accelerated due to threats. Therefore, the Air Force is no longer pursuing the original envisioned tanker strategy,” an Air Force spokesperson said in an email on May 22.
Boeing KC-46A. Credit: Boeing.
“However, we know that between KC-46A (179 aircraft on current contract) and an accelerated NGAS, we still need uninterrupted tanker recapitalization. Therefore, we are working on validated requirements and a finalized Business Case Analysis (BCA) for this tanker before making a final decision later this year whether or not we’ll hold a competition for aircraft (approximately 75) as the gap filler to ensure uninterrupted tanker recapitalization. Andrew Hunter, the assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics provided this update on March 7 during a media roundtable at the AFA Warfare Symposium.”
Initially, the Air Force posited that the next round of tanker contracts would be for around 160 aircraft. Originally, the procurement, called KC-Y, was expected to be an advanced tanker design. Then it shifted to a “bridge” procurement for an existing tanker. Now called NGAS, the procurement concept is reduced to 75 tankers.
Boeing favors a sole-source, follow-on order. Unsurprisingly, Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) favors a competition.
Boeing currently has contracts for up to 179 767-based KC-46As. Airbus has delivered about 50 MRTTs worldwide. Boeing has delivered more than 60 KC-46As worldwide, nearly all so far to the USAF.
Related Articles
- Making the case for competing the USAF tanker procurement
- Looking ahead toward tanker procurement: Boeing vs Lockheed
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 26, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag. The article discusses in detail a Blended Wing Body (BWB) type airframe and how it reduces the wetted area and, thus, air friction drag compared to a conventional tube and wing airframe.
Figure 1. JetZero Z5 250 seat BWB jet concept. Source: JetZero.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 26, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag. It discusses in detail the Blended Wing Body (BWB) type of airframe that shall reduce the airframe wetted area and thus air friction drag.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 6
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 25, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered the cost factors that make up the Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs).
We now compile the Cash Operating Cost for the aircraft on a typical sector and discuss the result.
Figure 1. The D238eco 40-seat airliner. Source: Deutsche Aircraft.
Summary:
- The Cash Operating Costs do not reduce in proportion to passenger numbers for a smaller airliner.
- As a consequence, a small airliner needs a higher load factor or yield to be viable.
Pontifications: Looking ahead to a major Defense procurement: Boeing vs Lockheed-Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
May 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Decisions by the US Air Force in Washington (DC) on whether to require competition for its next round of aerial refueling tanker aircraft are still months away.
But so far, the USAF technical group at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton (OH) is proceeding as if there will be a competitive battle. At stake is an order for more than 160 tankers.
Boeing thinks this will be a sole-source, follow-on order for its KC-46A, based on the commercial 767-200ER. Lockheed Martin Co (LMCO), partnering with Airbus, wants to see a version of the Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT), based on the commercial A330-200.
So far, the secretary of the Air Force publicly said he is leaning toward a sole-source follow-on order.
I visited LMCO last month to talk about the tanker competition. We also talked about the C-130J and its new commercial model, as well as other defense programs.
Making the case for competing the next USAF tanker procurement
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By Scott Hamilton
May 22, 2023, © Leeham News: The US Air Force is moving slowly toward another aerial refueling tanker procurement. With hundreds of ancient Boeing KC-135 tankers still to replace, the procurement will be a big one: more than 160 jets.
Concept of the Lockheed Martin LMXT aerial refueling tanker it wants to sell the US Air Force. This tanker is based on the Airbus A330 MRTT now in service. Credit: Lockheed Martin.
The big question that is as yet unresolved is whether the Air Force will place a follow-on, sole-source order with Boeing, or seek a competitive bake-off. If it’s the latter, a bid by Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) will be the competition. (Others may submit a bid, but the Boeing-Lockheed face-off will be the one to watch.)
LMCO partnered with Airbus to offer the A330 MRTT (Multi-Role Tanker Transport). This sets up a third Boeing-Airbus contest that could well be as bitter as the two previous ones. Make no mistake: although Lockheed will be the company submitting the bid, Airbus will become the target. It already has. Boeing surrogates lost no time in attacking Airbus after LMCO announced it will submit a bid, using the same old tired illegal subsidies claims and adding some new ones.
One surrogate questioned Airbus’ safety record. This was an astounding line of attack, considering the Boeing 737 MAX history and all the scandals that emerged in its development; and the 2013 grounding of the Boeing 787 for safety reasons. Airbus has never had a fleet type grounded by regulators for safety reasons traced to the design of the aircraft. (India’s regulator grounded A320neos equipped with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines due to issues related to the engine durability.)
More relevant is whether it makes economic and financial sense for the Air Force to have two primary tanker fleets: Boeing’s KC-46A and the A330 MRTT. LNA visited LMCO last month in Marietta (GA), the location of much of its defense business. It’s where the LMXT, as Lockheed calls its offering, will be militarized after production at Airbus’ Mobile (AL) aerospace complex should LMCO win the contract—if the procurement is competed.
LNA tomorrow will discuss some of the history of previous procurements.
Summary
- Commonality is Boeing’s argument. Derisking the fleet and greater capability is Lockheed’s argument.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 13. Friction drag
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 19, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the different drag types (Figure 1) that reduce an airframe’s efficiency.
We now look at the major drag types in more detail and what can be done to reduce them. We start with the dominant drag, skin friction drag.
Figure 1. The drag types that affect our single-aisle airliners during cruise. Source: Leeham Co.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 5
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 18, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption, maintenance, and airway/airport fees scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we now examine is the crew cost, where especially the flight crew cost development is troublesome, as pilots changed jobs during the COVID lull or retired early. When air traffic now rebounds, the lack of pilots drives wages and thus costs to new record levels.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace 30-seat ES-30 electric airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- The availability of flight crews is a major problem in the US market. It will spread to other geographies as air traffic picks up after COVID-19.
- The scaling of crew costs per transported passenger is unfavorable for smaller aircraft.