Leeham News and Analysis
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Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 17. Critical Design Review, CDR.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
November 21, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We are in the Detailed Design phase, and it’s time to conduct the Critical Design Reviews, CDRs.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Observe the CDRs. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
NTSB issues preliminary report of UPS crash with dramatic moment engine leaves airplane
Nov. 20, 2025, (c) Leeham News: The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) released its preliminary report of the UPS Boeing MD-11F accident of Nov. 4 in Louisville (KY). Included are photos of the dramatic moment the No. 1 engine separated from the airplane, which had just lifted off on take-off.
The report may be downloaded here: Prelimiary Report DCA26MA024 UPS MD11
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
November 20, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, we started last week by discussing what happened after the trigger by the Airbus E-fan flight in 2014 and the introduction of the Tesla Model S car two years before. The alternative propulsion aircraft projects that followed had a rocky path. They followed the Gartner Hype-curve, Figure 1.
There were hundreds of projects announced, more or less serious. A few of these came to producing hardware, and flew test flights, then stopped. Most stayed as PowerPoint presentations and fancy renderings, promising capabilities that were not possible to realize. The result was that we passed the Peak of Inflated Expectations and entered the Trough of Disillusionment. Investors fled to AI, and projects froze or stopped.
Figure 1. The Gartner Hype-curve. Source: Gartner Inc.
By 2025, we are in the Disillusionment phase. As there are signs we can now enter a phase of real, sustainable progress, it’s timely to take stock of where we are and what progress we can expect over the next decade.
To understand why progress has been so difficult, after explaining that learnings from Cars are not transferable last week, we start by focusing on two components that we find in every alternative propulsion concept, the Electric Motor and the Battery system. Of the two components, the motor is the most straightforward to develop and certify for an aircraft. Still, we have only limited progress so far, and we detail why in today’s article.
The Battery System is the most challenging component for alternative propulsion aircraft, both in development and in use. We will spend next week’s article detailing why and how it has slowed down progress so far, and how this can change going forward.
Flydubai orders 737 MAX, in addition to A320neos, at Dubai Air Show
Nov. 19, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday flydubai ordered the 150 Airbus A320neo family at the Dubai Air Show. Today, it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 75 Boeing 737 MAXes and options for 75 more. Flydubai may switch its orders between the 737-8, -9 or -10. The airline already operates the 737 NG and 737 MAX.
Emirates Airline placed an order for eight more Airbus A350-900s, bringing its total order to 73. The list price is $3.4bn for the new deal, or an average of $422m per aircraft.
Buraq Air of Libya signed an MOU for 10 A320neo family aircraft. It becomes a new Airbus customer.
Silk Way West Airlines of Azerbaijan ordered two A350Fs freighter aircraft. The cargo airline now has a total order to four A350Fs.
Airbus dominates orders, commitments on Day 2 of Dubai Air Show
Nov. 18, 2025, © Leeham News News: Airbus notched orders on Day 2 of the Dubai Air Show. Boeing announced a small deals today.
The European OEM gained a new customer, flipping from Boeing, with a major deal from flydubai. Flydubai signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for 150 A321neos.
Etihad Airways ordered six A330-900s, becoming a new A330neo customer. The carrier also ordered seven more A350-1000s, bringing its total for the type to 27, and three A350Fs, for a total of 10 aircraft.
Etihad also announced the commitment to lease nine A330-900s from Avolon.
Air Europa signed an MOU with Airbus for up to 40 A350-900s. It becomes a new A350 customer. The airline’s long haul fleet is currently Boeing 787s.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered six more A350-900s.
Boeing dominates Dubai Air Show opening day (Updated with additional news)
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Despite Boeing saying it was going to concentrate on outlining a path for certification of the 777X at the Dubai Air Show, the company dominated the opening day with new orders.
Embraer also announced a few orders at the show.
Airbus was a no-show for commercial deals on opening day.
Emirates Airline announced an order for 65 777-9s, with a list price value of $38bn. It has rights to change the order to the 777-8 or the stretch 777-10, should Boeing decide to proceed with this model. Emirates president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to stretch the 777 into a larger capacity -10 model. Nominally the -9 seats 465 passengers, which would likely be much lower in Emirates’ premium configuration.
“Emirates’ latest agreement with Boeing also provides strong backing for Boeing’s feasibility study to develop the 777-10, a larger variant of its 777X family,” the airline said in a statement.
After Airbus discontinued the giant A380, Clark has been vocal that a plane larger than the 365-seat A350-1000 or the 465-seat 777-9 is needed. Airbus years ago evaluated stretching the -1000 into a “-2000” to match the size of the 777-9 but decided then the market couldn’t support the airplane.
GE Aerospace supplies the engines for the 777-9. It says there is enough reserve power to accommodate a 777-10. Rolls-Royce powers the A350-1000 with its 97,000 lb thrust Trent XWB 97. It’s unclear if this engine could power a -2000.
Regardless, if Boeing proceeds with a 777-10 and Airbus proceeds with an A350-2000, Boeing will still dominate the Very Large Aircraft sector (+400-seats). The -2000 would be significantly smaller than the 777-10.
Ethiopian Airlines committed to purchase 11 additional 737 MAX jets.
Emirates was expected in some quarters to finally be ready to place an order for the A350-1000.
Embraer’s possibilities with a stretched C-390
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Sales of Embraer’s E195-E2 have taken off this year after a long period of stagnation.
It also appears that its slow-selling military KC-390 tanker-transport is gaining traction as well.
Embraer’s order book for the C-390 is approaching 50, with several NATO countries recently ordering the aircraft. the C-390. Non-NATO orders are also customers. Embraer is pitching several countries for large orders, according to a May analyst report from JP Morgan. Embraer is also pitching the US Air Force for between 20-30 C-390s, LNA is told. If the Pentagon places an order, Embraer pledges to build a US final assembly line.
Orders and possibilities for Embraer’s C-390. Credit: JP Morgan report, May 2025.
Embraer calls the 390 “a meetable combination and ready for the next 50 years,” Marcio Eduardo Monteiro, Embraer’s vice president of Market Intelligence and chief marketing officer, said during the company’s annual investors day in October.
Dubai Air Show, Day 1: Boeing’s 777X; Anticipated orders
Boeing Insists 777X Widebody Is Worth the Wait
By Charles Alcock • Managing Editor
Charlotte Bailey • Writer
Nov. 16, 2025, © AIN: Twelve years since Boeing launched the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Airshow, the OEM is back on-site with both its 777-9 test aircraft and a renewed confidence that delays to the protracted certification schedule are finally over.
With Boeing continuing to steadily work through FAA type inspection authorization (TIA) test phases, head of airline marketing for the 777X Justin Hale has a “high confidence” the airplane will enter service by 2027, with certification forthcoming as soon as 2026, he told reporters during a briefing on the eve of the Dubai Airshow on Sunday.
The full story may be found here.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 16. Certification Compliance Planning.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
November 14, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We are in the Detailed Design phase and working with the Certification Compliance plan.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
*** Special thanks to Andrew Telesca for helping with this article ***
What’s the status of the alternative propulsion projects for air transport?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
November 13, 2025, © Leeham News: The interest for new and more environmentally friendly aircraft got underway in 2014, when Airbus flew the battery-electric E-fan demonstrator at the Farnborough Air Show in July, Figure 1.
The car revolution to battery-electric cars had taken off two years earlier, when Tesla introduced the Model S sedan with elegant styling and very good performance and economy for a family car (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The battery-electric aircraft demonstrator and the car that started it all. Credit: Airbus and Tesla Inc.
Tesla cars had proven that electric cars could match and even outpace combustion-engine cars in performance and operational costs, though not in driving range. But range was a matter of battery capacity development, and hopes were high for a similar situation and development for aircraft.
As is the case with almost every technological leap, the progression of alternative propulsion aircraft projects followed the Gartner Technology Hype curve (Figure 2).
Figure 2. The Gartner Hype Curve for alternative propulsion aircraft. Credit: Gartner and Leeham Co.
The start was around 2015, passing the Peak of Inflated Expectations around 2020. In the 11 years since 2014, we’ve had hundreds of entrepreneur-driven projects declare they will make environmentally friendly aircraft and airliners a reality.
Nothing useful has come out of these projects, so today, we are passing the Trough of Disillusionment. Investors have stopped funding alternative propulsion startups as these have not produced useful air transport. The result is a mass death of projects, most silently, some more openly.
The core of the remaining projects are run by experienced teams with solid aeronautical knowledge. These are now passing into the Slope of Enlightenment and will make real progress. Given that we are now entering a more productive phase, we take stock of these developments and their programs.
To help the analysis, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model, APCM, to show what the challenges are and how alternative propulsion can address these challenges.