Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Safran hails ‘landmark’ 2024 with record results
By Leeham News Team
Feb. 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Safran has announced “record-breaking” financial results for 2024, with revenues, profits, and free cash flow all reaching new highs, helped by strong aftermarket activity and the return to profitability of its aircraft interiors division.
The strong performance has prompted an upward revision of its 2025 outlook, with revenue and income forecast to be higher than the figures given in December.
Reflecting on the 12-month period in a call with analysts on Friday morning, CEO Olivier Andriès described it as a “landmark year” for the company, despite “persistent supply chain difficulties as well as residual inflationary pressures”.
For the 2024 financial year, Safran reported adjusted revenue of €27.3 billion, a 17.8% increase, while recurring operating income surged by 30.1% to €4.1 billion, representing 15.1% of sales.
Free cash flow reached €3.19 billion, with shareholders set to benefit from a proposed dividend of €2.90 per share, pending approval.
Consolidated figures for the year were similarly robust, with total revenue at €27.7 billion and operating income at €4.19 billion.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 9.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 14, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
We have covered the progress of battery-based aircraft and hybrids. Last Corner started looking at hydrogen-fueled alternatives. A day after the Corner, the Airbus workers union Force Ovrier published information from an Airbus internal meeting, in which the airframer delayed the introduction of a hydrogen aircraft by 2035 to about 10 years later. As a consequence, it reduces the R&D spending on the development of hydrogen propulsion technologies.
Figure 1. The Airbus ZEROe concepts. Source: Airbus.
Politics and the FAA
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By Colleen Mondor
Credit: New York Post.
Feb. 13, 2025, © Leeham News: On Jan. 29 at 8:47 PM, a US Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter flying a low-level route over the Potomac River collided with a PSA Airlines Mitsubishi CRJ700 operating as an American Airlines flight 5342 on final approach to Washington Reagan National Airport.
The military crew of three and the 64 passengers and crew on flight 5342 were all killed. The near immediate upload of Air Traffic Control (ATC) communications online showed that flight 5342 was cleared for final to runway 33 while approaching the airport from the south. The Black Hawk, transitioning the airspace from the north, requested visual separation and acknowledged traffic in sight.
In the aftermath of the accident, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) immediately launched a “GO Team” in the area. It held an early press conference with all five members of the board present. Within hours of the crash, however, it was obvious that two potentially conflicting stories were emerging. The first was a traditional aviation accident investigation, which included the NTSB and investigators from the US military. The second was comprised of pure politics and fueled by negative comments from President Trump the day after the accident, which attacked not only the professionalism of Reagan’s ATC employees but controllers nationwide.
Spirit Aero teeters on bankruptcy, but what’s new about that?
By Karl Sinclair
Feb. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: Spirit Aerosystems (SPR) of Wichita (KS) filed an 8-K report with the Securities and Exchange Commission today with a troubling statement in its Investor Presentation:
“Due to Spirit’s cash flow and liquidity position, management expects to make a going concern disclosure in its 2024 Form 10-K. The Company anticipates that it will conclude in its 2024 From 10-K that there is substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.”
Going concern is an accounting term indicating that a corporation has serious doubts about its ability to continue operations for the next year.
Given Spirit’s important position as a Tier 1 supplier for Airbus and Boeing, this is a troubling development for both OEMs. But it’s not unexpected. Airbus and Boeing have been propping up Spirit for years with hundreds of millions of dollars in advance payments or loans. Without them, Spirit probably would have filed for bankruptcy long before now.
Trump vows to add tariffs to aluminum and steel; Airbus, Boeing, suppliers will be impacted
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported aluminum and steel this week, including from the USA’s largest supplying countries: Canada and Mexico.
According to Trump’s weekend announcement, China will be tagged with a 10% tariff. Other countries also export these products to the USA, but Trump didn’t mention any.
In the aerospace industry, Boeing and Airbus will be affected. So will suppliers to the two companies.
JetZero sees big sales potential, but consultants say it won’t be them to bring BWB to market
By Scott Hamilton
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JetZero Z4 commercial BWB and USAF tanker concepts. Credit: JetZero.
Feb. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: There will be a surge in aircraft replacement requirements as today’s Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes age. Simultaneously, the seating capacity of aircraft is increasing, says Michel Merluzeau, the Head of Sales Engineering and Market Development for the start-up company JetZero.
JetZero is developing the first commercial blended wing body (BWB) aircraft, a 250-plus seat design with a goal of reducing fuel consumption by 50% over the remaining Boeing 767s and Airbus A330ceos still in operation.
Merluzeau joined JetZero last year after decades as a consultant in commercial and defense aerospace sectors. He spoke last week to the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in a Seattle suburb.
The replacement forecast and the up-gauging will open a replacement market for at least 7,000 aircraft, Merluzeau said, for which JetZero’s Z4 concept is designed.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 8
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 7, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to replace or improve hydrocarbon propulsion concepts for Air Transport. We try to understand why the development has been slow.
We have covered the progress of battery-based aircraft and hybrids, where the last Corner was about the most sensible hybrids, the mild hybrids. Now, we turn to hydrogen-fueled alternatives.
Figure 1. The operation of a PEM fuel cell. Source: NASA.
Hopes, skepticism, for Boeing from suppliers
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 6, 2025, © Leeham News: Hope and skepticism for Boeing permeated the sidelines of a suppliers’ conference this week in the Seattle area as the big manufacturer struggles to regain footing following six years of back-to-back-to-back crises.
Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg said on Jan. 28 that the company is on a path with the Federal Aviation Administration to achieve a production rate of 38/mo for the 737 MAX later this year. Afterward, rates would increase in increments of 5/mo every six months. At this rate, production won’t return to the pre-MAX grounding production of 52/mo until the fall of 2027.
But suppliers at the annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference this week interviewed on the sidelines think Boeing won’t hit rate 38 until late next year. If Boeing then could ramp up in increments of 5/mo thereafter, the pre-grounding production rate would be achieved in the fall of 2028, nine years after the MAX was grounded.
Suppliers think the ramp up rate is also optimistic.
Ihssane Mounir. Boeing photo.
But at the PNAA conference, Ihssane Mounir detailed Boeing’s new approach to the supply chain, safety and quality Boeing has adopted since the grounding and after the Jan. 5, 2024, accident involving a door plug separation from an Alaska Airlines 737-9 MAX. Mounir is the Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) senior vice president of Global Supply Chain & Fabrication.
The same suppliers who are skeptical of the ramp plans express hope and optimism of BCA’s plans to return to normalcy.
A few also expressed residual anger toward Boeing over the six years of lurching from one crisis to another that disrupted business.
One supplier noted that it received no tooling orders for years because of the disrupted production and the absence of a new airplane program.
ATI 2024 results beat low expectations
By Karl Sinclair
Feb. 4, 2025, © Leeham News: “Expectations were low for ATI after a mix of operational and timing issues weighed on results in 3Q2024,” wrote the aerospace analyst for JP Morgan. “So a solid beat in the quarter and a better than feared guide was enough to drive significant out-performance on the day. While this quarter’s results represent a step in the right direction, we think solid execution on an ascending earnings profile for this year can do more the stock from a valuation perspective and would provide a strong jumping off point for out-year earnings, where our estimates are little changed.”
ATI’s fourth quarter ended on Dec. 31.
ATI (formerly Allegheny Technologies Incorporated) is an aerospace manufacturer headquartered in Dallas (TX) which produces specialty materials for the aerospace industry.
ATI is part of the aerospace supply chain, which has recently been under pressure and has not escaped the ravages of the Boeing troubles or the effects of the pandemic.
In 2020, ATI’s Albany (NY) operations temporarily closed down and was permanently shuttered in 2022. The plant produced high-quality titanium, with the bulk of production being purchased by Boeing.
The corporation is organized into two divisions: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S).
Aerospace and Defense dominates company revenues (62% in 2024, up from 59% in 2023), with products for commercial jet engines accounting for 33% of total company sales (up from 32%). Components for commercial airframes are the next largest market for the company, with 18% of revenues.
On July 1, in a planned succession, former COO Kimberly A. Fields took over the reins as CEO from Robert S. Wetherbee, who became Executive Chairman.
Boeing Deferred Production Costs: $39bn since 2019 MAX grounding, $22bn for 737
By Karl Sinclair
Feb. 04, 2025, © Leeham News: The Boeing Company (BA) released its 2024 FY Annual Report this week and as expected, it was awash with red ink.
On the Jan. 28, 2025, earnings call, CFO Brian West had this to say, in reference to a question regarding the inventory build-up:
“In terms of the inventory, we’ve got $87.5bn worth of inventory in the company right now…. So that is the big cash flow benefit that we’re going to see over the next couple of years-ish and it’s all because we’ve been sitting on this big investment that we look forward to having unwind with deliveries, and that’s what we’re focused the team on out in Seattle.”
Indeed, the balance sheet does indicate a figure of $87.55bn sitting in the Inventory account, but what is the detailed break-down of what is contained therein?
The recent five-month certification stoppage on the 777X program, due to the thrust-link breaks, forced Boeing to take a charge on the program in 2024 of $3.499bn This is in addition to the $6.493bn reach-forward loss taken on the 777X in 2020.
Along the way, Boeing has also recorded “abnormal production costs”. In 2023 and 2022 the program wrote off $513m and $325m, respectively.
For those keeping track, this is $10.83bn in losses for the variant, without having delivered a single aircraft to an airline or lessor.
Related Story
It is a recurring problem for Boeing and one that traces all the way back to when it started using program accounting to report earnings.