Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
Interview with Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier: Airbus and innovation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
18 Jan 2015: When visiting Toulouse last week we got the opportunity to talk to Airbus CEO, Fabrice Bregiér, on one of his pet subjects: the need for Airbus to be more innovative.
Background to the discussion was that we had observed that Airbus, after decades of a high innovation level, higher than its main competitor Boeing, had slipped behind in the last decade. We wanted to discuss this with Brégier, who has during his tenure, elevated the innovation theme to one of his top priorities. We wanted to see if we had consensus on the past and understood Airbus way forward.
Summary
- A380 problems undercut subsequent innovation; but
- Airbus still maintains innovative lead, Bregier says;
- A350, A320neo, A330neo examples of innovation; and
- Don’t need to overreach when benefits aren’t there.
AirAsia 8501: two weeks later, still looking for the voice recorder
Jan. 11, 2015: It’s now been two weeks and two days (local time) since AirAsia Flight 8501 crashed into the Java Sea. It took nearly two weeks just to locate the tail section of the airplane, which was raised. The flight data recorder was recovered Jan. 12 local time but the cockpit voice recorder is still missing.
Greg Feith, a former crash investigator for the US National Transportation Safety Board, wrote Sunday on his Facebook page, “ADS-B data was used to narrow the search area for the main wreckage. Info from both black boxes will finally provide a factual foundation that the airplane likely ended up in a high speed descent, probably a spiral descent, and impacted the water in an out-of-control situation and not an attempted emergency landing. With the main wreckage scattered, the airplane likely broke-up and skipped across the surface. We should know soon as the info is developed and provided by the NTSC.”
Real time tracking, FDR transmission needs to happen now
As time passes following the Dec. 28 crash of AirAsia flight 8501, it has become even more apparent that the need for real time tracking of the position of a commercial flight and real time transmission of flight data recorder information is necessary.
The issues aren’t new. Airplanes have gone missing since the dawn of aviation. Real impetus began to pick up after the 2009 disappearance of Air France flight 447. This flight went down over the South Atlantic in proximity to major thunderstorms. Radar coverage indicated the flight track but not the final position. ACARS, the system monitoring the health of the aircraft’s systems, transmitted enough information so that the airline, investigators and Airbus had a reasonable picture of what happened but a picture that was incomplete. It took five days to locate the first debris and bodies in the water and two years to locate and retrieve the black boxes, which filled in the picture of a flight crew in complete befuddlement over what was happening to their airplane. The accident was entirely avoidable, and the circumstances incorporated into future training may well save lives.
Despite the delay in finding the airplane and black boxes, the airline industry and regulators did nothing to require real time tracking and data transmission.
Odds and Ends: AirAsia 8501, PNAA Conference, FWIW
Jan. 2, 2014: AirAsia 8501: Our friend Geoff Thomas has an interesting commentary about the AirAsia 8501 story. Also, an Airbus A330 pilot for a major US airline, offered these observations about QZ8501. A Linkedin profile suggests this pilot flies for Delta Air Lines.
We are now beginning to see more and more “conclusions” about what happened to 8501 from people who are being described as “experts.” Some of these are people we’ve never heard of, although this isn’t necessarily indicative that they don’t know what they are talking about–but we don’t think they do.
Since the airplane hasn’t been confirmed as found (searchers only think they’ve found it, but bad weather and bad seas have, at this writing, prevented confirmation), nor have the black boxes been recovered, the conclusions being set forth are interesting theories but that’s all they are.
Most of these possibilities are precisely what we’ve reported as areas of investigation and questions to be asked and answered. They way these “experts” are positioning possibilities is actually pretty embarrassing.
Treat these reports with the skepticism they deserve.
One thing we are surprised at: how quickly one of the few victims recovered has been buried. We thought an autopsy would take longer, and an autopsy would be the first clear indication of what happened: whether the victims died by blunt force trauma (i.e, impact with the water) or from decompression (suggesting an inflight fuselage rupture or mid-air break up).
Sixteen bodies are now reported to have been recovered (at 8:30pm PST Jan. 1).
AirAsia update, Dec. 30: Key questions in the investigation
Dec. 30, 2014: With the apparent discovery of the main wreckage of AirAsia Flt 8501 in about 100 ft of water, recovery of the airplane and its black boxes should be a relatively straight-forward operation.
Our previous posts have outlined general areas of inquiry. With this post, we drill down into some of the flight and airplane questions that will be part of the inquiry. We talked with an Airbus A320 captain for a major US airline in forming these issues. This captain has been flying for US carriers for 30 years and is rated on Boeing 737s, the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 and the A320.
Key points:
AirAsia update: debris from flight confirmed; airline was implementing real-time tracking
Dec. 30, 2014: Debris and bodies have been found and confirmed coming from AirAsia Flight QZ8501, bringing closure for the families and friends of the flight that disappeared on Sunday local time.
Reports of shadows that could be a wing or fuselage in water about 30 meters deep have also been seen.
Some debris and bodies have already been recovered.
If the main body of the wreckage has also been spotted, recovery of the all-important flight data and cockpit voice recorders could come rather quickly.