Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Odds and Ends: Second SPEEA vote results tomorrow night; Big LionAir-Airbus order finally ready
SPEEA vote tomorrow night: Update: Tomorrow is now today; the SPEEA vote results will be counted tonight (Monday).
The revote by SPEEA technical workers will be counted Monday night. Technical workers rejected the best and final offer from Boeing last month and authorized a strike. The professional engineers accepted the contract but authorized a vote, a technical maneuver that became moot with contract acceptance.
The issue leading to rejection was Boeing’s desire to shift from a defined pension plan to a defined contribution for new employees.
Boeing refused to improve its offer. Without the backing of the professionals, we think the technical workers will vote to approve the contract this time.
Vote results will be well into the evening.
Big Airbus-LionAir Order: At long last, the huge order we first referred to September 24 last year appears ready to be announced Monday, Paris time. Reuters, The Wall Street Journal and French papers are reporting the deal will be announced tomorrow. It’s for A320s (neos, maybe some ceos) and breaks Boeing’s monopoly with LionAir and the 737/737MAX. This is a huge win for Airbus.
Odds and Ends: AF 447 resurfaces; Racing toward 2,000; A400M; beating back anti-droners
Air France 447: More data has surfaces on Air France 447, the Airbus A330 that plunged into the Atlantic on a flight from Brazil to France several years ago. In a cooperative post-investigation that included Airbus and Boeing, efforts to replicate the crash in a simulator failed.
It separately emerged that the pilot of the flight had one hour of sleep and the co-pilots also didn’t have the requisite sleep.
Racing Toward 2,000: At ISTAT, Airbus COO Customers John Leahy said he expected to gain another 200 orders this month for the A320 family, reaching 2,000 orders for the neo in the process. Lufthansa and Turkish have since announced orders.
A400M certified: The troubled Airbus A400M has been certified.
Beating back anti-droners: Boeing and supporters killed legislation in Washington State that would have outlawed drones. Boeing’s subsidiary Insitu is headquartered in Washington and considered leaving to Oregon, across the Columbia River. A coalition is also working to have Moses Lake (WA) selected as a drone testing site under an FAA program.
Special ‘task force’ studied lithium-ion batteries long before JAL 787 incident
A special task force was studying issues relating to the use of lithium-ion batteries in airliners long before the January 2013 Japan Air Lines fire. The effort began in 2008 and it met in December 2012, one month before the JAL fire.
Boeing, the FAA, Embraer, Airbus, GS Yuasa, American Airlines and ALPA are just a few who participated in these meetings, according to documents.
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing, referred to the group when he discussed the FAA approval to proceed with the Boeing plan to fix the 787 battery issues in his blog, here.
Tinseth writes:
The certification plan calls for a series of tests that show how the improved battery system will perform in normal and abnormal conditions. The test plans were written based on the FAA’s standards as well as applicable guidelines published by the Radio Technical Commission on Aeronautics (RTCA), an advisory committee that provides recommendations on ways to meet regulatory requirements. The RTCA guidelines were not available when the original 787 battery certification plan was developed.
We asked Boeing what the document was that Tinseth referred to above: it is a document numbered DO-311. There are a number of documents at RTCA containing the reference to DO-311.
DO-311 is described by RTCA as:
Odds and Ends: Tanker-like redux; Ryanair’s 200 737s; new use for Winglet
Tanker-like Redux: As you read this story, it sounds a lot like Boeing vs EADS, right down to the build-it-in-the-USA element.
Ryanair’s 200 737s: News emerged that Ryanair will firm up an order soon for 200 Boeing 737s. This has been hanging “out there” for some time. We learned of this likelihood a couple of months ago. It was all hush-hush while Ryanair took another run at Aer Lingus.
Pan Am landmark: For those filled with nostalgia, this news is sad: the famed Pan Am Worldport faces the wrecking ball.
New Winglet use: This is pretty cool. Via Steve Trimble of Flight Global.
Odds and Ends: 777X ATO next month, says AvWeek; 787 and the FAA; A318
777X ATO: Aviation Week reports that Boeing’s Board will grant Authority to Offer the 777X at the next meeting, in April.
Emirates Airlines has previously said it will order 100 or more of the X to begin replacing its 777-300ERs. Lufthansa and Air Lease Corp are likely co-launch customers.
Update: The Wall Street Journal now has an article identifying British Airways and Japan Air Lines as possible launch customers.
787 and the FAA: The FAA is expected to green light this week going forward with Boeing’s proposed fixes for the battery issues in the 787, but this doesn’t mean the challenges are over for Boeing. Extensive lab and flight testing will be required, meaning it still will be some time before the grounding is lifted.
A318 Done: Bloomberg has a story about the Airbus A318 and its dried-up sales. It was never a good seller.
Fallout continues from 787 grounding
LOT wants $$, Norwegian Leases A340s: The fall-out gets worse over the 787 grounding. LOT Airlines says it wants compensation by the end of June. TUI is rebooking passengers on Boeing 767s and will refund a price differential for those paying a premium to fly the 787. Norwegian Air is wet-leasing Airbus A340s to fill in for the 787s it was supposed to get.
Aeroturbopower has an interesting analysis of the Norwegian lease cost of the A343 v 788, including some admittedly speculative costs to Boeing.
In other news:
- Richard Aboulafia, noted aviation consultant for The Teal Group and an occasional consultant to Boeing (last job five years ago), predicts it could be 4-9 months before the 787 is back in revenue service. This is from the start of the grounding, not additional time. The prediction is in this article by Reuters.
- Aspire Aviation analyses the Australian aviation market.
Odds and Ends: Refusing to fly 787; 787 AD was wrong; KC-46A cost analysis; Battery fix certification?
Refusing to fly 787: This is a stunning survey by the website Travel Insider: 32% of frequent fliers will refuse to fly the 787 even after it is fixed for the first year or two and another third would prefer to avoid the 787. The numbers are huge. We knew there would be some who refused to fly the plane–the same thing happened to the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 after it was grounded in 1979–but the numbers are stunning.
We also recognize that we’re still at the height of the press coverage of the still-grounded aircraft. Once it returns to service, it will be interesting to see results if the survey were re-run.
There was no doubt Boeing received a black eye over the grounding. It now appears both eyes are blackened.
FAA 787 AD was wrong: The FAA should have pulled the 787 type certificate, argues a former member of the National Transportation Board.
KC-46A Costs: The Blog by Javier (Irastorza Mediavilla) has a detailed analysis of the contract price performance so far of the Boeing KC-46A. although the blog is mostly about his personal activities, Javier works for Airbus Military on the A400M program. (Note: he does not speak for nor represent Airbus through his blog). This might make some of his aerospace analysis suspect in the minds of some, but we have found his commentaries and analysis to be well researched and thought out. And he has a good sense of humor.
FAA reliance on OEMs: Reuters has a detailed piece about the Federal Aviation Administration’s reliance on OEMs (and specifically Boeing) in aircraft development, all triggered of course by the 787 issues. We wrote about this relationship shortly after the now-infamous joint press conference by the FAA and Boeing in which the FAA, Boeing and the Department of Transportation said the 787 was safe.
Re-certifying the battery fix: We keep getting told whatever Boeing does to fix the battery issue will require re-certification of the battery and/or system–that it will be more than simply complying with the Airworthiness Directive. This, of course, would add time to getting the 787 back into revenue service. Does anyone have some insight on this?
“Of all time:” Airbus Tweeted last Friday (referring to its website): The A320 (soon to be made in Mobile) is undisputed best selling aircraft product line of all time.” (Emphasis added.)
We don’t think so. “Of all time”? “Aircraft product line”? 737 All Series 10,501. A320 family: 9,142. DC-3/C-47/Others under license: 16,079.
We know what Airbus was trying to say: It’s A320 family vs the equivalent technology Boeing 737NG and 737 MAX, for which through January sold 7,369. But the claim, as worded, just isn’t so.
Furthermore, the A320 first entered service in 1988 and the 737NG in 1994. A true comparison needs to knock six years of sales off the A320.
To quote the controversy of a recent Washington (DC) tempest in a teapot, “[We] know [Airbus] may not believe this, but as a friend, [we] think [Airbus] will regret staking out that claim.”