Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 5. Turbofan design problems April 26, 2024
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
Odds and Ends: Airbus takes a look at the future; Air India gets 787 Saturday; John Leahy
Looking at the future: Airbus takes a look at the future in this company-issued document. Airbus discusses the environment, Air Traffic Management and more. This link has more information about how Airbus looks at the future.
Air India: We’ll still believe it when we see it but Air India is supposed to take delivery of its first 787 Saturday. (This is skepticism about the airline, not Boeing, for clarity….) Here is a microsite from Boeing. The best part is the construction of the airplane.
John Leahy: The COO-Customers at Airbus got a promotion of sorts. See this Bloomberg article. It’s well deserved.
Boeing and SPEEA: Things aren’t going at all well in the contract negotiations between Boeing and SPEEA.
Hypocrisy and Aerospace Industries Assoc.
On Twitter:
ReutersAerospaceNews @ReutersAero
Alabama move won’t open door to Airbus in US lobby group: We dont want foreign govts to use AIA to lobby ours, CEO Blakey tells #ReutersA&D
This is hypocrisy. The UK’s BAE System is a member of AIA. Rolls-Royce (North America) is a member. Brazil’s Embraer Aircraft Holdings is a member. France’s Dassault Systems is an associate member. Safran USA (obviously part of France’s Safran) is an associate member. And these are just the ones we immediately recognize from the AIA member list.
There key issues that Airbus and Boeing have in common: flight safety, air traffic management, environment, bio-fuel. There is no reason why Airbus Americas shouldn’t be a part of this group to participate in lobbying Congress for these kinds of issues. EADS North America, which already has major Defense contracts, could help on something like sequestration.
Airbus buys $12bn worth of supplies from the US and plans to double this. Even Washington State, Boeing’s home, is a top supplier to Airbus.
Who or what is black-balling Airbus?
Shame on AIA on this one. The reason given is transparently bull[stuff].
Odds and Ends: China’s Wings; B-17; Airbus Market Forecast
We just finished a book about China National Aviation Corp. (CNAC). It’s a long book, 498 pages. it’s meticulously footnoted. The Bibliography is 100 of the 498 pages. We found the book a bit tedious for all the detail, but 
others will find the vast, detailed history of CNAC and the politics of dealing with the pre-World War II Chinese government fascinating.
The book details the famed “Douglas 2 1/2,” the war-damaged DC-3 with the right wing replaced by one belonging to a DC-2. The airplane flew, as did another with a mis-matched, smaller engine and smaller propeller.
There are several instances of the DC-3 being flow overweight, one in which the airplane carried more than 70 passengers vs the then-standard 21. The airplane couldn’t get off the runway. But the runway was built ending against a sloped berm, and the DC-3 became airborne ski-jump style.
CNAC was run by an American, William Langhorne Bond, whose son Langhorne became US Transportation Secretary under President Carter (and who was responsible for grounding the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 after the crash of American Airlines flight 191 in Chicago-a crash we covered as a reporter).
The senior Bond was one of those rare individuals who successfully went up against the legendary Juan Trippe, whose Pan Am owned a minority stake in CNAC, and persuaded him to stick with CNAC when Trippe was ready to abandon the airline during the Sino-Japanese war preceding Pearl Harbor.
Bond’s disappointment of losing CNAC to the Communists after World War II after all he’d been through to keep the airline alive is palatable.
The book is easily available through Amazon.com.
Cash cows at Airbus and Boeing
Eyes are on Boeing over the prospect of a 777X.
Chatter doesn’t cease about the prospect of an Airbus A330neo.
Boeing is in no hurry to proceed with the “7X” and an A330neo is unlikely any time soon, if at all.
Here’s why.
Boeing rolls out Ray Conner to analysts
Boeing rolled out Ray Conner, the new CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, to analysts in New York yesterday. The first research note we’ve received, from Imperial Capital’s Ken Herbert, portrayed a positive meeting. Below is a synopsis. As we receive more notes, we’ll add those comments.
We don’t like the resumed policy of using cash to repurchase stock, instead of putting it into new airplane programs (something Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, normally a pro-Boeing consultant, has roundly criticized for years).
Imperial Capital
We believe BA is benefitting from several tailwinds, and is demonstrating increased confidence regarding its 787 execution and the ability to take further costs out of the supply chain. However, we believe much of the good news is reflected in BA stock, and we see slowingorders in 2013 as limiting the multiple; therefore, we are maintaining our In-Line rating. Investors areexpecting a significant dividend increase or share repurchase program, which could be a positive catalyst, but we see the new program developments, which include the 737MAX, the 777X and 787-10, as potential competing cash pulls.
Regarding the 787, Boeing confirmed that Charleston is ahead of plan, but that it has been staffed to over deliver. Boeing also made a point of stressing that its movement down the cost curveon the 787 will be similar to that of the 777. We believe that there is an opportunity for Boeing toexceed expectations on the 787.
We continue to believe, however, the much of the execution upside is priced into Boeing stock. We believe that in order for the stock to see material upside, Boeing needs to demonstrate a very bold use of the expected free cash flow, in the form of both increased dividend and share repurchases, that will attract new investor interest and accelerate the EPS growth. However, this will limit the new product development options, considering the potentially competing development requirements of the 737MAX, the 787-10, and the 777X. We believe current BCA leadership wants to do both the 777X and the 787-10, and believes that there is significant pent-up order demand for both new aircraft, but we believe the focus on share repurchases and/or the dividend, reiterated at the 8/28/12 reception, could push some development effort to the right.
Separately:
- A reader posted this link on NEO vs MAX orders and options and we think it so good we’re elevating it to a primary post. This website also recaps which airlines have switched allegiance. Thanks to Dave O’Flynn for the link.
- China ordered 50 A320s instead of the expected 100.
Odds and Ends: Crummy DOT data and why we’re skeptical; 787 deliveries; PAL and A321 deliveries
Crummy DOT Data: We’ve previously written that we, and AirInsight, are skeptical about airline data filed with the US Department of Transportation. AirInsight doesn’t rely on it at all when doing aircraft economic analysis. We are openly skeptical of Boeing’s reliance on DOT 41 data when comparing maintenance costs of the 737 vs the Airbus A320.
Aviation Week has this item that illustrates precisely why we think DOT 41 data has to be viewed with great skepticism.
Airbus Mobile and Washington State: This Op-Ed in, of all places, The Seattle Times, explains how Washington State will benefit from Airbus’ new Mobile (AL) plant. Says what we’ve been saying for a long time. Misses the fact that WA is the No 1 or No 2 supplier to Airbus in the US by company count and No. 6 by dollar volume.
787 Deliveries: 17 and counting, with Air India, Qatar and others to deliver shortly. We are feeling more and more confident Boeing will hit its target of 40 deliveries this year, with just four months and a few days left.
PAL’s Big Airbus Order: This has been written up a lot, so it’s no surprise. What caught our eye was Aviation Week’s report that says Airbus found A321 delivery slots next year. Who deferred or who cancelled to find these slots in a production line that’s supposed to be sold out to mid-to-late this decade?
A350 Supply Chain Challenge: Aviation Week has this article about changes to the A350 supply chain and change incorporation.
Odds and Ends: Qantas cancels 35 787s; 787 program upswings; 777X development slows
Qantas Airways: The troubled airline canceled 35 787-9s. Stories in Google News from all over.
Update: David Strauss at UBS re-issued his April note analyzing over/under orders for all Airbus-Boeing models. In his cover email, Strauss today referred readers to the 787 section. Excerpts:
At 859 aircraft from 56 customers, 787 accounts for roughly two-thirds of Boeing’s widebody backlog. Assuming Boeing hits its planned 10/month 787 production rate by end of 2013, we estimate Boeing has roughly eight years of production in backlog. By region, Asia accounts for the largest percentage of the 787 backlog at 38%, with the remainder fairly evenly split between North America, Europe and the Middle East. We estimate that roughly 73% of the 787 backlog has been ordered for growth as compared to 27% for replacement.
Our analysis indicates Boeing’s 787 customers are in a net over-ordered position of roughly 400 aircraft or 29% of their combined widebody backlog. 787 customers that we have identified as being over-ordered include Singapore, Aeroflot, Qatar, Gulf Air, Qantas, Air China, Vietnam and United, while BAIberia, Etihad, China Eastern, Jet, Oman, Uzbekistan and Saudi appear under-ordered. Although our analysis indicates Delta is under-ordered on widebodies, we don’t expect Delta to order more 787s as it has already deferred its existing 787 orders indefinitely.
787 upswings: Aspire Aviation has a long piece on the 787 program.
777X Development: Dominic Gates has this story about the slowing of 777X development. This is very similar to what we’ve been hearing from a variety of sources. Update, 7:25pm PDT: Randy’s Blog (Randy Tinseth) refutes Dominic’s article with a memo from Ray Conner, president of BCA. As we noted in this item, Dominic’s reporting is similar to what we’ve been hearing–including as late as Tuesday of this week. We’ll also observe, for what it’s worth, that this seems to be unfolding in a scenario very similar to the New Small Airplane/737 MAX timeline. If nothing else, the customers seem to have an understanding that appears to be “evolving.”
Odds and Ends: Assessing the MAX; Airbus and Mobile; skilled labor in the supply chain
It’s a slow August for news, but here are two items we’ll bring to your attention:
Assessing the MAX: Over at AirInsight, we have this post assessing the Boeing 737 MAX, written shortly after the Farnborough Air Show.
Airbus and Mobile: This story discusses how the Airbus plant at Mobile (AL) will add to the aerospace cluster there. The comparison with Seattle, which we make, highlights a real challenge we see for Airbus and the aerospace cluster in Mobile. The supply chain here is struggling under the weight of the high demand for airplanes (not just at Boeing, but all the OEMs), both in terms of product and skilled help. As a member of the Board of Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, we hear of the manpower shortage all the time and the efforts by the State and others to boost training and education to meet demand.
The shortage of skilled labor, and of engineers, is a major challenge for Boeing, and (like it or not) one reason for outsourcing. But the impact on the supply chain is equally great. The lower Tier suppliers in effect become the training ground for the upper Tier and Boeing. This means there is a continuous skill-churn that these small businesses really can’t afford.
Washington State is not the only place where this problem exists; it’s a national problem. What we hear at PNAA is story after story of foreign students (notably Chinese) coming to this country for engineering education then taking their skills home rather than emigrating here. Nationally, there is a wide imbalance between education and training and demand. The shortage of our education institutions in graduating the skills in STEM and touch labor is large. Even high schools have cut back on vocational training of all kinds.
In this State, budget cuts have severely impacted the community colleges and high-ed schools. The aerospace industry is but one of those hurt by these cuts.