Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Pontificatons: Paris Air Show preview
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2023, © Leeham News: The Paris Air Show officially opens next Monday. LNA will be there, with some events scheduled as early as this Friday.
Our expectations are modest. We don’t expect any new airplane programs from Airbus, Boeing or Embraer, or ATR. These are the only remaining major aircraft companies outside China and Russia.
China’s COMAC finally saw its C919 passenger jet enter service last month after 13 years of development and seven years after entry into service was planned. There won’t be anything new this year from COMAC.
Russia, of course, is immersed in its Ukrainian war. No new civil airplane programs will come from here.
Based on the pre-air show pitches I’ve been receiving, the alternative energy sector is going to be well-represented and active at the show. Most concepts, LNA feels, have little-to-no future.
We expect the news from the Duopoly and Embraer and ATR to be pretty much all about orders. Expectations will be mixed.
As Airbus ponders the A220-500, Boeing shrugs
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By Scott Hamilton
June 12, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun says he’s not worried about the prospect of Airbus launching a stretched model of the A220 family.
Airbus has said it’s a matter of “when, not if” it launches the A220-500. This would be a direct competitor to the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737-8 MAX. Sales of the A320N are declining in favor of its larger sibling, the A321neo. The MAX 8 is Boeing’s bread-and-butter member of the MAX family.
Calhoun, during Boeing’s pre-Paris Air Show media briefing last month, said the -500 doesn’t give him heartburn. But he didn’t go into detail.
Darren Hulst. Credit: Darren Hulst.
Darren Hulst, VP of Commercial Marketing for Boeing, did the next day. Hypothetically, the value of the 737 family is probably best illustrated when you talk about the choice that an airline must make with a 320 base family or an A220 base, he said. Assuming Airbus goes forward—which it said is not going to happen at the Air Show beginning next week—Hulst said the market will decide its success of failure.
Summary
- Commonality vs capacity.
- No growth opportunity after A220-500.
- Limited market for the A220-500; the market may have passed the -500 by.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 16. Airframe with lower induced drag
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 9, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of article Part 16P. Airframe with lower induced drag. It discusses the Truss Braced Wing type of airframe that increases the practical wing span of an aircraft and thus reduces induced drag.
Figure 1. Boeing concepts of a next-generation airliner with Truss Braced Wing. Source: Boeing.
Boeing still hopes for 737-7 certification this year, 737-10 next year and an Amended Type Certificate for the 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing continues to face a plethora of paperwork to certify the 737 MAX 7 this year. Officials hope to certify the largest member of the family next year, but won’t commit to this goal.
Boeing 777-9. Credit: Leeham News.
And there is no reason, at this time, to believe the 777-9 will require an entirely new type certificate despite major changes to the airplane.
So says Mike Fleming, senior vice president-Development Programs and Customer Support. Fleming made his remarks at Boeing’s media briefing on May 31 in advance of the Paris Air Show, which beings in two weeks.
Boeing’s Calhoun: Be patient for a new airplane
By Scott Hamilton
June 1, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun remains upbeat about the company’s future despite occasional setbacks and a struggling defense unit.
Boeing CEO David Calhoun
But in a media briefing on May 30 in advance of the Paris Air Show, he was resolute that progress is being toward a full recovery from the “existential” threats posed in recent years by the 737 MAX crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Boeing is still recovering from these events, as well as a delivery pause of nearly two years of the flagship 787 and political tensions with China that began in 2017 when President Donald Trump imposed trade sanctions, thus beginning a trade war with one of Boeing’s most important markets.
China still has not resume deliveries of the MAX, a combination of the MAX grounding from 2019-2021, the trade war and a slow recovery from COVID. Boeing has an inventory of about 230 MAXes from the grounding; 140 of these are destined for China.
There is also an inventory of about 90 787s, the residual from a production quality issue that Boeing discovered. Officials forecast that it will be the end of 2024 before both inventories are cleared.
At a separate investors conference last week sponsored by the boutique company Wolfe, CFO Brian West reaffirmed free cash flow forecasts of about $10bn by the 2025 time frame. Guidance for production rates of 38 a month for the 737 by the end of this year and 50 by around 2025 and 5/mo for the 787 by year end and 10/mo by 2025 remain intact.
A new airplane, no JV and more
- At the media briefing, Calhoun expanded on his previously comments that technology beyond engines is ready for support development of a new airplane.
- A New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) would not have been sufficiently advanced to support its development, either, he said. Calhoun killed this project when he was named CEO in January 2020.
- Calhoun in April 2020 withdrew from the proposed joint venture with Embraer. EMB was to be responsible for developing a new airplane in the 100-150 seat sector and provide engineering for the NMA. The withdrawal is in arbitration, so Calhoun wouldn’t comment specifically about it. But asked whether Boeing might revisit the JV, he said there is less compelling reason to do a JV today than there was then.
- Boeing and NASA are studying a trans-sonic Truss Braced Wing (TBW) design, building on research and development Boeing has been doing for years. Calhoun said whether this will become a single- or twin-aisle concept when done is too early to say. But he added that the TBW doesn’t lend itself to a large capacity aircraft.
Boeing SC construction underway for second 787 final assembly line
An Etihad Airlines Boeing 787 undergoing modification for a production issue at the Boeing South Carolina final assembly plant. This rework will shift to Everett exclusively so this rework space can be shifted to a second Final Assembly Line. Credit: Leeham News.
By Scott Hamilton
May 31, 2023, © Leeham News: Charleston (SC)—Boeing is gearing up to add a second production line for the 787 here at what was once the second line to the Everett (WA) plant.
When the COVID-19 pandemic erupted, the Everett line was closed and production was consolidated here. Peak production between the two plants was 14/mo, with seven at each facility. Even before the pandemic, the rate was trimmed to 12/mo. With the pandemic, and airlines refusing to take any airplanes of any times as passenger traffic all but disappeared, production was slashed to 3/mo.
Then, when a production quality issue was discovered, deliveries were halt and production was slashed again, to a mere one-half 787 per month.
Deliveries restarted last year and the production rate returned to 3/mo. At a media briefing yesterday, In advance of the Paris Air Show, the VP and GM of the 787 program, Lane Ballard, announced the rate is going to 4/mo. By year end, Boeing will boost the rate to 5/mo. Boeing previously announced plans to boost the rate to 10/mo by 2025.
In a tour of the production line, the media saw early construction of a second assembly line in the 787 plant as Boeing prepares to add a second line for that previously announced 10 airplane per month, up from a peak of seven. But the Charleston plant has room for more than 10 airplanes per month.
Tanker competition decision expected later this year
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By Scott Hamilton
May 29, 2023, © Leeham News: Procurement of a new round of US Air Force aerial refueling tankers resulted in a shift in strategy driven by new threat assessments, a service spokesperson tells LNA.
The Lockheed Martin LMXT concept. Credit: Lockheed Martin.
“The Next Generation Air-Refueling System (NGAS) is being accelerated due to threats. Therefore, the Air Force is no longer pursuing the original envisioned tanker strategy,” an Air Force spokesperson said in an email on May 22.
Boeing KC-46A. Credit: Boeing.
“However, we know that between KC-46A (179 aircraft on current contract) and an accelerated NGAS, we still need uninterrupted tanker recapitalization. Therefore, we are working on validated requirements and a finalized Business Case Analysis (BCA) for this tanker before making a final decision later this year whether or not we’ll hold a competition for aircraft (approximately 75) as the gap filler to ensure uninterrupted tanker recapitalization. Andrew Hunter, the assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics provided this update on March 7 during a media roundtable at the AFA Warfare Symposium.”
Initially, the Air Force posited that the next round of tanker contracts would be for around 160 aircraft. Originally, the procurement, called KC-Y, was expected to be an advanced tanker design. Then it shifted to a “bridge” procurement for an existing tanker. Now called NGAS, the procurement concept is reduced to 75 tankers.
Boeing favors a sole-source, follow-on order. Unsurprisingly, Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) favors a competition.
Boeing currently has contracts for up to 179 767-based KC-46As. Airbus has delivered about 50 MRTTs worldwide. Boeing has delivered more than 60 KC-46As worldwide, nearly all so far to the USAF.
Related Articles
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Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 26, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag. It discusses in detail the Blended Wing Body (BWB) type of airframe that shall reduce the airframe wetted area and thus air friction drag.
Pontifications: Looking ahead to a major Defense procurement: Boeing vs Lockheed-Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
May 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Decisions by the US Air Force in Washington (DC) on whether to require competition for its next round of aerial refueling tanker aircraft are still months away.
But so far, the USAF technical group at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton (OH) is proceeding as if there will be a competitive battle. At stake is an order for more than 160 tankers.
Boeing thinks this will be a sole-source, follow-on order for its KC-46A, based on the commercial 767-200ER. Lockheed Martin Co (LMCO), partnering with Airbus, wants to see a version of the Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT), based on the commercial A330-200.
So far, the secretary of the Air Force publicly said he is leaning toward a sole-source follow-on order.
I visited LMCO last month to talk about the tanker competition. We also talked about the C-130J and its new commercial model, as well as other defense programs.