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Odds and ends on the final pre-Air Show day

Odds and Ends from the Paris Air Show

While an order or two are expected to come from Qatar Airways’ mercurial CEO Akbar Al-Baker, the buzz here already is that U-Turn Al may yet again live up to his nickname. It’s been widely expected that he would, at long last, order the Bombardier CSeries, but Al-Baker is renowned in aviation circles for embarrassing OEMS. He’s done it to Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing and has flipped-flopped in his praise-criticism-praise for the CSeries and the A320neo. For Boeing, it was a major embarrassment when at the Farnborough Air Show in 2008 Boeing issued a press release announcing Qatar ordered the 777 only to rescind it hours later (even though it was correct) at Al-Baker’s insistence. Neither did he show up for the 787 roll-out even though Qatar’s logo was displayed in the roll-call of tail logos and a chair was reserved with his name on it. While Al-Baker recently trashed-talked the A320neo, word now is that he will place an order for the airplane (with CFM LEAP engines, maybe?) for a new Qatar leasing company. He has been feuding with Pratt & Whitney, and if he by-passes the GTF for the A320neo, this could mean PW hasn’t bent over to his demands—and the CSeries could suffer as a result.

4 Comments

Posted on June 19, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Pratt & Whitney

A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, GTF, LEAP, Pratt & Whitney

Boeing 737 re-engine studies very much alive

Boeing officials like to downplay the prospect of re-engining the venerable 737, but studies are very much alive as the company tries to figure out what the market wants and how to respond to the Airbus A320neo.

Boeing has shifted focus on re-engine studies despite already having a solution, officials said during a pre-Paris Air Show media briefing.

16 Comments

Posted on June 18, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

737, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Paris Air Show

Paris Air Show outlook

There are several items looking at the Paris Air Show outlook:

AirInsight had a live discussion Friday with Addison Schonland, Richard Aboulafia and Ernie Arvai hosting it. The transcript is here.

AirInsight also published a lengthy written preview of what to expect from all the major airframe and engine OEMs here.

Here’s a short-take on Airbus at the show.

2 Comments

Posted on June 6, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embraer

Paris Air Show

Pre-Paris Air Show discussion and AirInsight preview

AinInsight will host a live pre-Paris Air Show discussion Friday, with guest Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group. Sign up to participate here.

Also look for AirInsight’s Paris Air Show preview next week. We historically have done air show previews here but this year we’re combining our thoughts with our partners, Ernie Arvai and Addison Schonland at AirInsight. AirInsight will go down the airframe and engine OEMs with our outlook for orders and announcements.

Addison and I will be at the air show, providing daily coverage. I’m also attending the Boeing pre-air show briefings this week (with news embargoed to June 19); and the EADS/Airbus media day June 18, at which there will be an A350 briefing that had been scheduled for May 31 but was postponed to the media day.

Just a hint of AirInsight’s preview next week: we’re expecting Airbus to announced and firm up several hundred orders for the A320neo and more A380 orders; Boeing may have some 747-8I orders ready to announce; Bombardier should have more CSeries orders; CFM will get its first LEAP-X orders on the neo (and these will be large numbers) while Pratt & Whitney will continue to add to the GTF book; Embraer won’t announce a new airplane and neither will Boeing; ATR (an EADS company) will have a nice turbo-prop order; and we expect a major announcement from Rolls-Royce.

3 Comments

Posted on June 1, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, EADS, Pratt & Whitney

A350, Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, EADS, Embraer, GTF, LEAP-X, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip

Here are some more photos from our DC-7B trip. All photos by Scott Hamilton.

This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?

3 Comments

Posted on May 31, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney

Douglas DC-7, Eastern Airlines DC-7B, Historical Flight Foundation, Military.com

Tariffs won’t be assessed in WTO Airbus, Boeing cases

The decision is in on the appeal of the WTO panel decision in the Airbus and pending on the WTO’s panel findings on Boeing.

The “what’s next” is dispute resolution and, failing this, the prospect of imposing tariffs on Airbus and Boeing airplanes.

This won’t happen. Why? It’s simple: too much is at stake. Neither company wants a trade war.

8 Comments

Posted on May 23, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, WTO, WTO tariffs

McNerney’s interesting comments on the new airplane

We’re off hiatus, having completed several projects that now gives us some time to pay attention to this column.

It didn’t seem to get much pickup but on the Boeing 1Q earnings call, CEO Jim McNerney said something on the call that really perked up our ears.

First, some necessary context.

25 Comments

Posted on April 29, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

737, 737RS, 757, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bomardier, CSeries, Embraer

Odds and Ends: Three drivers for Bombardier; PW GTF gains momentum

1. JP Morgan looks at Bombardier

Aerospace analyst Joe Nadol has an interesting take on Bombardier and the next 12 months. Nadol begins with, “We believe Bombardier may be better positioned now than at any time in the 10+ years we’ve followed the stock,” and continues:

Three Important BBD Drivers: 1) CSeries, 2) CSeries, 3) CSeries. With the business jet and train businesses both poised for solid earnings growth, the CSeries is now clearly set as the key likely driver of the stock. There are two primary issues here. The first is demand, and we believe the program needs to start racking up more orders this year, even by the Paris Air Show in June. We believe there is a high level of interest, and we are fairly confident Bombardier will sell more aircraft. The partnership with Comac that Bombardier announced last week seems to foreshadow meaningful Chinese orders. Bombardier also has nearly $12 bil in financing for CSeries aircraft available from Chinese sources. The second issue is execution. Management noted that Bombardier still expects to fly the aircraft next year and also highlighted some recently achieved milestones for the engine. However, Flight reported in recent weeks that the date for first flight may have slipped by a few months into next fall, so the program does appear to be experiencing at least the normal level of fits and starts. Thus far, the CSeries appears on track overall, but execution obviously remains a major overhang given the complexity of the program and the well-known problems the industry has had meeting cost and schedule targets in recent years.

12 Comments

Posted on April 4, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney

Bombardier

Reports from ISTAT

We were at the ISTAT conference Monday and Tuesday, where 1,250 industry officials attended.

We wrote several stories for Commercial Aviation Online. These are below:

Odds and Ends: Boeing basks in 777 orders as A350 falters

Odds and Ends this week:

Boeing had a good week with 777 orders from a variety of customers, though some were previously unidentified ones that had already been booked. Back in January we predicted that Boeing will see a stream of orders that will justify increased production. Boeing has announced a rate of 8.3 per month and we can reveal it is considering going to 10 per month.
Meanwhile, Airbus confirmed that it faces mounting challenges with the production timeline for the A350. For the moment it is still sticking with the EIS of 2H2013. We fully expect this to slip into 2014. At the moment, our conclusion is that the A350 will be a year late. This may change.
Dominic Gates has this interesting story about Boeing proceeding with a 787-10.
The Air Force Times has an interesting article analyzing the tanker competition.
Airbus and Boeing are engaged in their usual public bickering over the strategies in the A320/737 class. Airbus launched the NEO and claims this provides enough fuel burn reductions to make the program worthwhile. (We think the boost in range to the A320 and A321 have as much to do with the program as anything else.) Airbus is right. Boeing claims re-engining doesn’t provide enough fuel burn benefit to make re-engining worthwhile on a net, all-in cash-on-cash basis to be worthwhile. Boeing makes a good argument on this narrow basis, but this ignores the environmental benefits to re-engining and other factors. Airbus says there isn’t going to be a real convergence of technology until 2025-27 to justify a new airplane. Boeing believes there is enough new technology available to justify a new airplane by 2019. We think they are both right–and both are wrong.
EADS CEO Louis Gallois said the KC-X tanker effort boosted EADS’ standing with the Department of Defense despite losing.
The new PW GTF and CFM LEAP-X engines aren’t in service yet and PW is already working on its next generation GTF and CFM is working on the open rotor. Flight Global has a lengthy story about it.
Aspire Aviation takes a look at Cathay Pacific’s financial results.

14 Comments

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

Airbus, Boeing, EADS, KC-X

Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

Leeham News and Analysis

Odds and ends on the final pre-Air Show day

Boeing 737 re-engine studies very much alive

Paris Air Show outlook

Pre-Paris Air Show discussion and AirInsight preview

Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip

This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?

Tariffs won’t be assessed in WTO Airbus, Boeing cases

McNerney’s interesting comments on the new airplane

Odds and Ends: Three drivers for Bombardier; PW GTF gains momentum

Reports from ISTAT

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Odds and Ends: Boeing basks in 777 orders as A350 falters

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