Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2025, © Leeham News: Three manufacturers are designing engines that could be used on the replacement aircraft for the Airbus A320neo and Boeng 737 MAX families.
Rick Deurloo, president of Pratt & Whitney Commercial Engines. Credit: PW.
GE Aerospace and Safran, via their joint venture CFM International, are designing the RISE Open Fan engine. As the name suggests, the fan on open to the air and not surrounded by a nacelle. The Open Fan is an off-shoot of the 1980s Open Rotor engine that was equipped with counter-rotating fans with no nacelle. The Open Fan has only one fan, with vanes aft of it that may be adjusted to tweak efficiency.
Pratt & Whitney is placing its bet on an evolution of the Geared Turbo Fan (GTF).
Rolls-Royce is developing a new turbofan engine called the UltraFan, a conventional nacelle-equipped GTF of its own.
PW and RR believe conventional engines are the best choice for the next single aisle airplane. GE believes the RISE is the best choice.
At a media briefing in advance of the Paris Air Show, PW president of Commercial Engines Rick Deurloo basically threw down the gauntlet to GE.
New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Decades of research and development by GE Aerospace are a key element in the potential program of a step-change engine for the next new single-aisle airliner.
Mohamed Ali, SVP, chief technology and operations officer. Credit: GE Aerospace.
The RISE open fan engine, a joint project of GE and France’s Safran under the banner CFM International, has a huge fan without an engine nacelle, hence the name “open fan.”
One major concern about an engine without a shroud or nacelle to contain a blade failure is that the engine “throwing” a blade could penetrate the fuselage, causing injury or death to the passenger and substantial damage to the aircraft.
In a briefing last week by GE Aerospace, Mohamed Ali, the Senior Vice President, chief technology and operations officer, said the RISE’s composite blades benefit from millions of flight hours of composite blades on the GE90 (Boeing 777), CFM LEAP (Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo), GEnx (Boeing 787) and GE9X (Boeing 777X) engines. None of these engines (which have nacelles) has ever thrown a composite blade.
GE says the RISE can reduce fuel consumption, and with it lower emissions, by at least 20%. RISE is currently a development program. However, the company clearly is betting that this is the wave of the future. Rivals Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce instead are betting on evolutions of conventional turbofan engines as a “safer” bet.
GE targets RISE’s entry into service in 2035. Officials say the R&D remains on track to meet this date.
Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability
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By Scott Hamilton
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE.
June 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Engine reliability and durability for the next new commercial aviation engine for the next new single-aisle airplane has emerged as the top demand of airlines and lessors.
Burned, frustrated, and angry by shortcomings in these areas in engines from every manufacturer, potential customers prioritize getting these areas right over reduced fuel consumption and lower emissions.
Airlines have had issues of varying severity with GE Aerospace’s GEnx (the Boeing 787); the CFM LEAP (Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX); Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan (Airbus A220 and A320neo and Embraer E2); and Rolls-Royce (Boeing 787, Airbus A350-1000). (GE is a 50% joint venture partner in CFM, with France’s Safran holding the other 50%.)
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, has been publicly vocal about his concerns regarding these issues with the forthcoming Boeing 777-9 and its massive GE9X engine, which is now undergoing flight testing. He’s also cited durability issues with the RR Trent XWB-97 engine on the Airbus A350-1000 as his key reason for holding off on ordering this model. Emirates has just taken delivery of the first A350-900s, the smaller version of the A350, powered by the Trent XWB-84. Reliability and durability issues have been reported for the smaller -900 and lower-thrust XWB-84 in the harsh Middle East environment.
In an appearance at an investors’ conference on May 28 hosted by Bernstein Research, GE CEO Larry Culp discussed these issues with the LEAP engine and how lessons learned apply to the RISE open fan.
Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part II
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By Karl Sinclair
May 22, 2025, © Leeham News: In our first look at OEMs in the aviation industry with a significant revenue stream derived from services, LNA analyzed airframe-makers.
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Now the focus shifts to engine and simulator manufacturers, and how after-market sales can pull a company through difficult times. It can even be the model, that a business follows.
Tariffs Tumult Takes Over GE Aerospace Q1 2025 Earnings Call
By Chris Sloan
GE Aerospace First Quarter 2025 earnings report.
April 22, 2025 © Leeham News: GE Aerospace’s above consensus beat for Q1 2025 earnings was overshadowed by the administration’s fluid reciprocal tariffs policy in its first earnings call.
“We support promoting free and fair trade that ensures the continued strength of the U.S. aerospace industry. As the U.S. administration engages in discussions with its trade partners, we’ll continue to advocate for an approach that reestablishes zero-for-zero tariffs in the aviation sector and ensures a level playing field for the U.S. aerospace industry,” said Larry Culp GE Aerospace CEO. “It’s easy to overlook the $75bn trade surplus the sector enjoys largely on the back of this terra-free regime that we’ve had since 1979,” adding that he has been in direct communication with senior people within the administration, including the president.
GE sees 2,500 LEAP engine deliveries by 2028, enough for more than 1,000 A320neos and 737 MAXes
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE Aerospace.
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: CFM International plans to deliver 2,500 LEAP engines by 2028, enough to power more than 1,000 Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes plus spare engines in a single year.
CFM is the 50-50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran. The 737 exclusively uses the LEAP. The A320neo family splits its powerplant business between CFM and Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan engines. Between the MAX and a portion of the A320neo engines, CFM has a solid majority of the market share for the mainline single-aisle aircraft sector.
CFM is the brand for the CFM56 and LEAP, but GE and Safran benefit from the aftermarket business. Between the two engines, the maintenance, repair, and overhaul business is big and profitable.
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace, spoke at the Barclays investors conference on Feb. 20.
“There’s no question that from an aftermarket perspective, LEAP on top of CFM56 is going to keep us very busy,” Culp said. “We haven’t been particularly good at calling the outlook here because we’ve undershot the reality with the CFM56 the last couple of years.”
Culp said that GE continues to believe that it’s got several years of growth ahead. “We probably don’t see an apex until probably the 2027, 28-ish time period, and then we’ll see a gradual fade with the CFM56.
“I think we’re still talking about 2,000 shop visits at the end of the decade. We’ll see if we’re right or wrong on that, but that’s our current view. I think our partners at Safran have in effect echoed that recently at their own earnings call.”
GE FY and Q4 2024 Earnings Power Above Consensus Driven By Services While LEAP Makes Durability Strides
By Chris Sloan
January 23, 2025 © Leeham News: Today, GE Aerospace reported a strong beat on its first full-year and fourth-quarter results as a standalone public company. Softer LEAP deliveries were more than offset by services.
“GE continues to demonstrate what a high-quality company can produce in a healthy aerospace environment – and that the aero aftermarket is far from dead,” said a Vertical Research Partners analyst report. Nearly eight years since LEAP’s EIS, the engine’s durability and reliability are beginning to catch up with fuel efficiency gains that continue to beat and exceed operational expectations. The world’s largest engine, the GE9X, is progressing toward next year’s launch under the wing of the world’s largest twin, the Boeing 777X.
Overall, demand continues to outstrip supply. The company touted orders for more than 4,600 commercial and defensive engines led by big LEAP-1B wins from American Airlines and El Al for 737 MAXs, GEnx-1B campaign victories for Royal Jordanian and British Airways 787s, and new GE9X orders from China Airlines. The entry-into-service of the first LEAP-powered Airbus A321XLR was another highlight. Supply chains and productivity, though still challenged, showed meaningful improvement powered by the engine maker’s so-called “Flight Deck lean operating model.”
Earnings: Pay closer attention to the supply chain than to the OEMs
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Earnings season begins today. Among the companies followed by LNA, GE Aerospace and Hexcel report today. RTX and Boeing report next week. ATI and Spirit AeroSystems follow the week after. Other suppliers follow then.
Airbus doesn’t report until Feb. 20. Rolls-Royce reports on Feb. 27.
The manufacturers draw the headlines, but LNA found long ago that the supply chain often provides better information to draw conclusions about the future than listening to the OEMs. All it takes is one supplier to fall down on the job to muck up the works for the OEMs.
That’s not to say listening to the OEMs is not important. Clearly, it is. But there’s just no getting around it: the credibility of many of the OEMs is damaged. Airbus hasn’t hit its production ramp up targets in years. Quality control suffers. And deliveries are consistently late.
Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of the board for Air Lease Corp, says that every single Airbus aircraft, 250 of them, has been late since 2017. That’s long before the pandemic began in March 2020, which caused such disruption continuing to this day. Airbus was still delivering A320ceos during 2017 and 2018, which didn’t have engine issues.
Boeing’s credibility speaks for itself. It doesn’t matter that it has a new CEO. Until Boeing starts performing, anything it currently says is hope, not performance. Post-strike delivery recovery will be an important indicator of Boeing’s performance in the essentially truncated fourth quarter and January.
Suppliers often discuss information on their earnings calls that provides a better understanding of production rates at the OEMs and where downstream issues are or are emerging.
2025 remains another year for recovery in commercial aerospace
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2025, © Leeham News: Don’t look for any dramatic new product launches in 2025.
Nor should you expect any dramatic news, absent global upheaval of some kind.
This year is going to be yet another year dominated by recovery. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which officially ended in 2022. Recovery by the supply chain. Recovery for Pratt & Whitney’s nearly decade-long problems with its Pure Power GTF engines supplying the Airbus A220, A320 family and Embraer E2 jets. Recovery by Airbus from its production and delivery delays. Recovery by Boeing from its series of self-inflicted crises, now beginning the sixth year.
There is just no getting around the fact that the commercial aerospace industry isn’t a smooth-running industry. It’s a long way from 2018, when all sectors were running smoothly. There is still a long way to go to recovery.
Here’s LNA’s take on what’s to come this year.
“What’s past is prologue.” –William Shakespeare.
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 16, 2024, © Leeham News: A new airplane from Airbus or Boeing is years away.
Engines drive whether a new airplane program makes sense. Technology just isn’t “there” yet. In any event, Boeing can’t afford to fund a new airplane program even if it wants to. Furthermore, until its stored inventory of 737s and 787s are cleared, or mostly so, production rates are back to 2018 levels, debt is substantially reduced, and profits and cash flows return, Boeing is mired in recovery from the past. Addressing the future must wait.
Airbus has no incentive to rush into a new airplane program, even if engine technology was available. Its backlogs extend into the 2030s, and it can’t meet the current demand. Production is mired in delays for the A320 and A350 families.
Both companies, and Embraer, remain adversely affected by supply chain parts delays.
Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury previously said he doesn’t see the company moving forward with a new airplane until 2035-2040. Additional insight into the company’s thinking came last month at the Aviation Forum 2024 in Munich, where vice presidents of Airbus’ propulsion and new programs departments outlined what’s ahead.