Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Thursday, 12, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus has released its forecast for new airliners needed between 2024 and 2044. The forecast says there is a need for 43,420 new aircraft over the next 20 years. It means we need to produce and deliver an average of 2,170 aircraft per year during the period.
During 2024, the world deliveries were 1,200 airliners. To meet the Airbus-predicted demand, production and deliveries of aircraft by 2044 must almost triple.
We examine what this means for the existing OEM structure and the opportunities it presents for new players in the commercial aircraft industry.
Figure 1. The Airbus predicted shift in air travel from Europe and Americas to Asia-Pacific. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The growth in air travel and, consequently, the demand for new aircraft is expected to continue unabated over the next 20 years.
- With 1,200 aircraft delivered in 2024 and the need for more than 3,000 aircraft by 2044, there are opportunities for new players to enter the market.
P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2025, © Leeham News: Three manufacturers are designing engines that could be used on the replacement aircraft for the Airbus A320neo and Boeng 737 MAX families.
Rick Deurloo, president of Pratt & Whitney Commercial Engines. Credit: PW.
GE Aerospace and Safran, via their joint venture CFM International, are designing the RISE Open Fan engine. As the name suggests, the fan on open to the air and not surrounded by a nacelle. The Open Fan is an off-shoot of the 1980s Open Rotor engine that was equipped with counter-rotating fans with no nacelle. The Open Fan has only one fan, with vanes aft of it that may be adjusted to tweak efficiency.
Pratt & Whitney is placing its bet on an evolution of the Geared Turbo Fan (GTF).
Rolls-Royce is developing a new turbofan engine called the UltraFan, a conventional nacelle-equipped GTF of its own.
PW and RR believe conventional engines are the best choice for the next single aisle airplane. GE believes the RISE is the best choice.
At a media briefing in advance of the Paris Air Show, PW president of Commercial Engines Rick Deurloo basically threw down the gauntlet to GE.
New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Decades of research and development by GE Aerospace are a key element in the potential program of a step-change engine for the next new single-aisle airliner.
Mohamed Ali, SVP, chief technology and operations officer. Credit: GE Aerospace.
The RISE open fan engine, a joint project of GE and France’s Safran under the banner CFM International, has a huge fan without an engine nacelle, hence the name “open fan.”
One major concern about an engine without a shroud or nacelle to contain a blade failure is that the engine “throwing” a blade could penetrate the fuselage, causing injury or death to the passenger and substantial damage to the aircraft.
In a briefing last week by GE Aerospace, Mohamed Ali, the Senior Vice President, chief technology and operations officer, said the RISE’s composite blades benefit from millions of flight hours of composite blades on the GE90 (Boeing 777), CFM LEAP (Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo), GEnx (Boeing 787) and GE9X (Boeing 777X) engines. None of these engines (which have nacelles) has ever thrown a composite blade.
GE says the RISE can reduce fuel consumption, and with it lower emissions, by at least 20%. RISE is currently a development program. However, the company clearly is betting that this is the wave of the future. Rivals Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce instead are betting on evolutions of conventional turbofan engines as a “safer” bet.
GE targets RISE’s entry into service in 2035. Officials say the R&D remains on track to meet this date.
Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability
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By Scott Hamilton
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE.
June 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Engine reliability and durability for the next new commercial aviation engine for the next new single-aisle airplane has emerged as the top demand of airlines and lessors.
Burned, frustrated, and angry by shortcomings in these areas in engines from every manufacturer, potential customers prioritize getting these areas right over reduced fuel consumption and lower emissions.
Airlines have had issues of varying severity with GE Aerospace’s GEnx (the Boeing 787); the CFM LEAP (Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX); Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan (Airbus A220 and A320neo and Embraer E2); and Rolls-Royce (Boeing 787, Airbus A350-1000). (GE is a 50% joint venture partner in CFM, with France’s Safran holding the other 50%.)
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, has been publicly vocal about his concerns regarding these issues with the forthcoming Boeing 777-9 and its massive GE9X engine, which is now undergoing flight testing. He’s also cited durability issues with the RR Trent XWB-97 engine on the Airbus A350-1000 as his key reason for holding off on ordering this model. Emirates has just taken delivery of the first A350-900s, the smaller version of the A350, powered by the Trent XWB-84. Reliability and durability issues have been reported for the smaller -900 and lower-thrust XWB-84 in the harsh Middle East environment.
In an appearance at an investors’ conference on May 28 hosted by Bernstein Research, GE CEO Larry Culp discussed these issues with the LEAP engine and how lessons learned apply to the RISE open fan.
Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry
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By Scott Hamilton
June 2, 2025, © Leeham News: Little in the way of product development or new airplanes is expected at the Paris Air Show, which begins on June 16. No new commercial airplane programs will be forthcoming from Airbus, Boeing, or Embraer. Nor will any new commercial engines be forthcoming from GE Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, or CFM International (a GE-Safran joint venture).
Instead, the air show briefings are most likely to be progress reports, discussions about new materials and sustainability.
One new entrant that is still in the research and development stage, with the production of a demonstrator aircraft underway, is JetZero. The start-up is developing a 250-passenger Blended Wing Body airplane (BWB) designed for the middle of the market (250-300 seats) currently occupied by the aging Airbus A330-200/300 and Boeing 767-300ER; and the newer Boeing 787-8 and Airbus A330neo.
JetZero has daunting tasks ahead to successfully bring its BWB, called the Z4, to the market. It needs $7bn to $10bn (it has, publicly, less than $300m). JetZero plans to make a site selection announcement any day now, before the air show. An entirely new production plant is required. It needs to build the plant, production tooling and the final assembly line.
One of the keys to the program is the reliance on a digital twin production plant and innards. JetZero has hired the giant firm Siemens to help design the digital twin, an effort that Siemens officials predict will reduce the time to build the facility by 20%-30 %.
Boeing and Airbus have identified advanced production processes as key to the next new airplane, whatever it may be. When Boeing was pondering the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) for the Middle of the Market (MOM), officials said production was more important than the airplane itself.
Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 29, 2025, © Leeham News: We are writing an article series about stretching the A220 to a capacity in the A320neo range. The idea is to replace the A320neo over time to make room in the A320/321 production lines for more A321s and extend the A220 family with a larger variant.
We analyzed what we need to change to bring the capacity to the level of the A320neo. We could achieve this with a fuselage stretch, but then the Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) would need to increase to keep the A220 range. The wing and engines would then have problems, the takeoff run would get longer, and the climb to an efficient initial cruise altitude would be affected.
We now examine the potential fixes for these problems.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The A220-300 wing is not highly loaded compared to other Airbus single-aisle aircraft. With some modifications, it should be sufficient for an A220-500.
- The A220 engine is the mid-sized Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan, the PW1500G. It has limited thrust stretch capability. An alternative for a long-range (and thus heavier) A220-500 would be the CFM LEAP-1B from the 737 MAX.
Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
May 26, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s future depends on satisfying the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that its failures to follow safety protocols and quality control standards are behind it.
It’s been a rough six years since the worldwide Boeing 737 MAX fleet was grounded for 21 months following two fatal accidents five months apart. The existential threat to Boeing from the grounding was exacerbated by the two-year COVID-19 pandemic and a 20-month suspension in deliveries of the Boeing 787 due to production defects.
Then, just when Boeing was making progress, a previously undetected quality “escape” allowed a door plug on a brand new 737-9 MAX operated by Alaska Airlines to separate from the airplane at 14,800 ft shortly after take-off from Portland (OR) on Jan. 5, 2024.
A new crisis hit Boeing. The FAA, which had clamped down on Boeing’s 737 production line following the grounding on March 13, 2019, tightened its grip even further.
Today, Boeing is slowly clawing its way back.
In a media briefing last week for its fourth annual release of its Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report (CASO Report), Don Ruhmann, the CASO, and three colleagues outlined Boeing’s progress in satisfying the FAA that Boeing is on a path to technical and safety recovery. (Financial recovery is not strictly the FAA’s concern and wasn’t covered in the briefing.)
Summary
- Boeing’s Speak Up program for employees did not have an independent manager to whom complaints, concerns, and suggestions could be tendered. Previously, line managers received complaints, raising fears among employees that retaliation was possible. Now, an independent manager is part of the process.
- Boeing told LNA that Ruhmann welcomes a meeting with the engineers’ union, SPEEA, to hear concerns over a stalled SPEEA safety initiative called ASAP.
- Preparations for expansion of 737 production to the Everett (WA) widebody factory are underway, but this, too, depends on the FAA.
The annual report is an outgrowth of the 2018-2019 737 MAX crashes and the crisis that followed.
Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part II
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By Karl Sinclair
May 22, 2025, © Leeham News: In our first look at OEMs in the aviation industry with a significant revenue stream derived from services, LNA analyzed airframe-makers.
Related Article
Now the focus shifts to engine and simulator manufacturers, and how after-market sales can pull a company through difficult times. It can even be the model, that a business follows.
FAA’s data of accident, incidents, often not shared
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By Colleen Mondor
May 19, 2025, © Leeham News: On March 27, acting FAA Administrator Chris Rocheleau testified before the US Senate Commerce Committee on the continued fallout from the Jan. 29 midair collision near Reagan National Airport in Washington (DC) between an American Eagle Airlines CRJ-700 and a US Army helicopter. All aboard both craft died.
In response to repeated questions from several senators about how warning signs about the congested airspace were missed, Rocheleau admitted that the agency needed to be more proactive about future safety issues, saying, “We have to identify trends, we have to get smarter about how we use data, and when we put corrective actions in place, we must execute them.”
FAA history of trend analysis
The FAA has collected safety information on National Airspace System users for decades. While the earliest data contained incident and accident reports drawn from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the agency’s Aviation Incident Data System and the Service Difficulty Reporting System were created in 1978. By the early 1980s, they were stored in the FAA’s “System 2000,” where eventually they were converted into usable formats and transmitted to FAA employees. It was cumbersome, time-consuming, and not entirely accessible. But it was a start, and by 1988, as listed in the following table from the Office of Technology Assessment, several other databases had been established.
| Data Type | Database | Federal Agency | Earliest Year* |
| Accident/Incident | Aviation Accident Data System | NTSB | 1962 |
| Accident/Incident | Accident Incident Data System | FAA | 1978 |
| Incident | Aviation Safety Reporting System | NASA | 1975 |
| Incident | Near Midair Collision Database | FAA | 1980 |
| Incident | Operational Error Database | FAA | 1985 |
| Incident | Pilot Deviation Database | FAA | 1985 |
| Mechanical Reliability | Service Difficulty Reporting System | FAA | 1978 |
| Air Operator Data System | FAA | 1980 | |
| Traffic Levels | Air Traffic Activity Database | FAA | Previous 18 months |
| Operational Practices | Air Operator Data System | FAA | 1980 |
| Air Carrier Statistics Database | RSPA | 1968 | |
| Inspection Results | Work Program Management System | FAA | 1987 |
| Violations/Enforcement Actions | Enforcement Information System | FAA | 1963 |
*Earliest year for data stored electronically. RSPA = Research and Special Programs Administration. “Incident” in this database does not always refer to NTSB-determined incidents. Other agencies sometimes use the term for any manner of non-accident events.
Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part I
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By Karl Sinclair
May 15, 2025, © Leeham News: The aerospace industry is a maintenance-intensive operation, where strict regulatory rules drive many requirements.
Assets must be constantly maintained, governed by the time or usage an airline derives from them.
This goes for airframes, engines, and human resources.
Services account for a large part of aerospace corporate profits. Boeing’s Global Services division is the most profitable part of the company. Photo credit: Boeing Global Services.
Some equipment manufacturers derive little or no profits from product sales, but they make lucrative and long-term revenues from attached maintenance contracts.
Political factors are also coming into play in the services segment.
As airlines are forced into a difficult and expensive decision regarding the payment of tariffs on new aircraft they acquire, many could opt for a different strategy.
Older aircraft that were due for replacement with newer, more fuel-efficient jets will be sent into MRO facilities for an additional heavy-maintenance check.
With falling fuel prices playing less of a factor in the acquisition decision, airlines will be tempted to defer deliveries (thus avoiding the payment of tariffs) using their current assets in their installed fleets.
Extending an aircraft’s useful life by another six to seven years will allow carriers to simply wait out the tariff threat when things return to normal.
LNA looks into the growing services revenue segment among various companies in the aviation industry.