Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing still hopes for 737-7 certification this year, 737-10 next year and an Amended Type Certificate for the 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing continues to face a plethora of paperwork to certify the 737 MAX 7 this year. Officials hope to certify the largest member of the family next year, but won’t commit to this goal.
Boeing 777-9. Credit: Leeham News.
And there is no reason, at this time, to believe the 777-9 will require an entirely new type certificate despite major changes to the airplane.
So says Mike Fleming, senior vice president-Development Programs and Customer Support. Fleming made his remarks at Boeing’s media briefing on May 31 in advance of the Paris Air Show, which beings in two weeks.
Embraer gears for growth
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 1, 2023, © Leeham News: We attended a briefing on Embraer’s strategy for the years ahead last week. The company has regrouped after the failed Joint Venture with Boeing in 2020 and the tough COVID years.
The focus has been on streamlining operations after the carve-out of the Commercial Aviation division was reversed. The reintegration was followed by efficiency projects in all divisions to lower costs, free capital, and pay down debt.
Only from a strengthened economic base can Embraer go for growth in the years ahead.
Embraer E2 jet ordered by Scoot. Source: Embraer.
Summary:
- Embraer has turned corners in Finance, Executive jets, and Defense with the KC-390.
- Now, the E-Jets shall follow, with sales of E2s picking up over the last six months.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 26, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag. It discusses in detail the Blended Wing Body (BWB) type of airframe that shall reduce the airframe wetted area and thus air friction drag.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 6
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 25, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered the cost factors that make up the Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs).
We now compile the Cash Operating Cost for the aircraft on a typical sector and discuss the result.
Figure 1. The D238eco 40-seat airliner. Source: Deutsche Aircraft.
Summary:
- The Cash Operating Costs do not reduce in proportion to passenger numbers for a smaller airliner.
- As a consequence, a small airliner needs a higher load factor or yield to be viable.
Making the case for competing the next USAF tanker procurement
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By Scott Hamilton
May 22, 2023, © Leeham News: The US Air Force is moving slowly toward another aerial refueling tanker procurement. With hundreds of ancient Boeing KC-135 tankers still to replace, the procurement will be a big one: more than 160 jets.
Concept of the Lockheed Martin LMXT aerial refueling tanker it wants to sell the US Air Force. This tanker is based on the Airbus A330 MRTT now in service. Credit: Lockheed Martin.
The big question that is as yet unresolved is whether the Air Force will place a follow-on, sole-source order with Boeing, or seek a competitive bake-off. If it’s the latter, a bid by Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) will be the competition. (Others may submit a bid, but the Boeing-Lockheed face-off will be the one to watch.)
LMCO partnered with Airbus to offer the A330 MRTT (Multi-Role Tanker Transport). This sets up a third Boeing-Airbus contest that could well be as bitter as the two previous ones. Make no mistake: although Lockheed will be the company submitting the bid, Airbus will become the target. It already has. Boeing surrogates lost no time in attacking Airbus after LMCO announced it will submit a bid, using the same old tired illegal subsidies claims and adding some new ones.
One surrogate questioned Airbus’ safety record. This was an astounding line of attack, considering the Boeing 737 MAX history and all the scandals that emerged in its development; and the 2013 grounding of the Boeing 787 for safety reasons. Airbus has never had a fleet type grounded by regulators for safety reasons traced to the design of the aircraft. (India’s regulator grounded A320neos equipped with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines due to issues related to the engine durability.)
More relevant is whether it makes economic and financial sense for the Air Force to have two primary tanker fleets: Boeing’s KC-46A and the A330 MRTT. LNA visited LMCO last month in Marietta (GA), the location of much of its defense business. It’s where the LMXT, as Lockheed calls its offering, will be militarized after production at Airbus’ Mobile (AL) aerospace complex should LMCO win the contract—if the procurement is competed.
LNA tomorrow will discuss some of the history of previous procurements.
Summary
- Commonality is Boeing’s argument. Derisking the fleet and greater capability is Lockheed’s argument.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 5
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 18, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption, maintenance, and airway/airport fees scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we now examine is the crew cost, where especially the flight crew cost development is troublesome, as pilots changed jobs during the COVID lull or retired early. When air traffic now rebounds, the lack of pilots drives wages and thus costs to new record levels.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace 30-seat ES-30 electric airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- The availability of flight crews is a major problem in the US market. It will spread to other geographies as air traffic picks up after COVID-19.
- The scaling of crew costs per transported passenger is unfavorable for smaller aircraft.
Growing Opposition to ALPA’s Attack on Regionals
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Kathryn B. Creedy
Analysis
May 15, 2023, © Leeham News: Using the same tired arguments, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) on May 5 urged the Department of Transportation to reject SkyWest’s year-old proposal to create a Part 135 public charter under Part 380 of the Department’s regulations to serve Essential Air Service (EAS) markets.
Credit: Republic Airways
ALPA, in a letter co-signed by nine other unions, claimed SkyWest Charter is a backhanded attempt to bypass the 1,500-hour pilot experience rule. The airline says its proposal is to continue serving most of its EAS points under the same regulations governing other EAS carriers. Further, it attacked the public charter rule objecting to JSX operations, a catalyst for engaging the business aviation against the union.
ALPA may be skating on thin ice, not realizing the 1,500-hour rule is increasingly irrelevant given statements on Capitol Hill favoring pilot training reform and the popularity of the EAS program among legislators.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 12P. Airframe efficiency improvement
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 12, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 12. Airframe efficiency improvement. It discusses in detail the next-generation airframe improvements we can expect. We start with detailing the size of airframe inefficiency for today’s airframes, then look at the areas we can improve.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 11, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption and maintenance scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we examine today is the cost of using the airport and airways infrastructure. Airlines pay for landing plus parking at airports and for using their passenger facilities. The airlines also pay for using the Air Traffic Control (ATC) infrastructure when flying the routes.
Each airport and national airway system have their own fee structures. We check how these scale with aircraft size.
Figure 1. The TECNAM P2021 piston prop airliner is also offered in an electric version called P-Volt. Source: TECNAM.
Summary:
- Airway fees scale differently per transported passenger to the airport fees.
- Overall, airport and airway fees are not proportional to carried passengers on a route.
GTF’s troubled history hurting future orders
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
May 8, 2023, © Leeham News: India’s GoFirst Airlines filed for bankruptcy last week. The carrier pointed to around 29 of its 50 Pratt & Whitney Geared TurboFan-powered Airbus A320neos being grounded as the reason.
The aircraft have been grounded for months. Despite negotiations with PW and a favorable arbitration ruling, GoFirst says PW failed to provide replacement engines. As a result, GoFirst paid about $196m in lease rates for the grounded aircraft, without being able to fly them for revenue.
Lufthansa Group last week complained that a third of its Swiss Airbus A220 fleet, also powered by the GTF, are likewise grounded with technical issues. As LNA previously reported, Air Baltic, Egyptair and Air Senegal also have A220s grounded. Iraqi Airlines has some A220s that are grounded. And now there’s news that Embraer E195-E2s at KLM’s regional airline are also grounded due to GTF issues.
India’s Indigo Airlines also has a large number of A320neos grounded with GTF problems. About 11% of the nearly 3,000 A320neos in service are grounded or fly one a week, an Aviation Week analysis revealed.
PW’s reputation was already badly damaged before the GoFirst bankruptcy. However, an LNA analysis shows that forward orders for engines on the A320neo already were suffering.
Summary
- CFM’s LEAP has a consistently larger market share, boosted by exclusivity on Boeing 737 MAX.
- Initially PW won more orders for A321neo; CFM has overtaken in the order backlog.
- Including A220 (exclusive GTF power) and MAX, plus neo split, CFM’s in-service market share is 66% to 34%.
- But going forward, CFM has 60% of the backlog across all types to PW’s 19%–with 22% of the A320neo family orders undecided on engines.
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