Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
How much of an NMA market will the Airbus A321XLR capture, Part 3?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 1, 2019, © Leeham News: We wrap up our study of what part of an NMA market the Airbus A321XLR could capture with looking at the difference in available engine technology between the A231XLR and the NMA generation of airliners.
Summary:
- The generational improvement in fuel efficiency of airliner turbofans has been over 10% in the last decades.
- We examine if these improvements will still be the case for the NMA generation of aircraft.
How much of an NMA market will the Airbus A321XLR capture? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 25, 2019, © Leeham News: We continue our discussion from last week of what part of an NMA market the Airbus A321XLR would capture.
We started the study by comparing the aircraft with a common yardstick. It brought some revealing insights. Now we continue by looking at the airline routes these aircraft can cover and their economics when covering these routes.
Summary:
- The NMAs and the A321XLR cover the same routes with small differences in range performance.
- The major difference is in their passenger capacity, where they are complementary rather than competitors.
How much of an NMA market will the Airbus A321XLR capture?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus’ new A321XLR is labeled as an Boeing NMA killer. It shall, with its capability to fly the same routes as the NMA, nibble away on its market space.
This discussion takes the Airbus passenger and range data for the A321XLR and compares it with the announced capabilities of the NMA. As we will see, it’s not that simple.
Summary:
- To understand how the A321XLR will compete with the NMA, we first need to compare them with the same yardstick.
- Putting them on the same cabin and operational rule set reveals interesting differences. The A321XLR and the NMA are complementary rather than competitors.
14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027
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July 15, 2019, © Leeham News: There are 14 new and derivative aircraft scheduled for entry into service (EIS) through 2027. This rises to 16 if Boeing launches the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA).
But there are plenty of uncertainties around precise EIS hanging over some of these.
LNA sees entry into service for the Boeing 777X slipping to the first quarter of 2021.
LNA sees the Boeing 777X EIS slipping into early 2021. China’s C919 is now slated for a 2021 EIS, but development has been tricky and delays have been common. Russia’s MC-21 flight testing has been slow and international sanctions hang over this aircraft.
Mitsubishi’s MRJ90, now called the M90, is slated to enter service next year. It, too, has been plagued by delays. The redesigned MRJ70, the M100, moves from a 2021 EIS to a planned 2023 EIS—but given the MRJ90’s history of delays, the company has to persuade the industry no more slippages are likely.
Here is a rundown by year and aircraft of the EIS dates.
Will the NMA-7 finally kill the A330?
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By Judson Rollins
July 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing is expected to proceed with the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) once the 737 MAX gets clearance to return to service. News from the Paris Air Show indicates Boeing may launch the larger model, the NMA-7, first.
The 270-passenger version of the NMA is viewed by some—including Boeing—as the airplane that would effectively kill the A330neo.
Twelve years ago, the 787 was supposed to finally kill the A330 once and for all … and we saw how that turned out. But this time may well be different.
Rendering of Boeing NMA-7. Source: Leeham Co.
Predictive power of cargo volumes
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By Vincent Valery
July 8, 2019, © Leeham News: It has been said that the collapse of freight volumes in the second half of 2008 preceded the sharp drop in passenger traffic. Cargo also allegedly led the passenger recovery in the second half of 2009. We will verify with IATA data whether the data backs such claim.
We will also check whether cargo volumes still have as much predictive power in the post Great Recession world. The current context of increasing trade tensions and signs of economic slowdown make this analysis relevant. We will ponder whether the next global recession is around the corner.
Credit: Cathay Pacific.
Twice daily with Airbus’ A321XLR or one daily with the A330-900?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 04, 2019, © Leeham News: Will the Airbus A321XLR change long-haul flying between city pairs within its range? The capacity is around 50% of an A330-900 so an operator could fly twice daily to move the passenger stream if the cost was the same.
Such a frequency advantage requires the seat-mile economics of the XLR to be the same as the A330-900. We use our airliner operating cost model to find out if it is.
Summary:
- Configured with a three class long-range cabin the A321XLR is half as large as the A330-900 equipped to the same cabin rules.
- Last weeks article showed the A321XLR was very competitive cost wise against the smaller A330-800.
- How much better is the larger A330-900? Can an operator depart twice daily with the XLR for the same cost as one rotation with the A330-900?
SAP and advanced manufacturing cut costs for current, new airplanes
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July 1, 2019, © Leeham News: Improving supply chain management is one of the many, many key factors in making the business case for the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Airplane.
The prospective Boeing NMA needs SAP and advanced manufacturing processes to help close the business case. Source: Leeham Co.
The highly complex task of managing a supply chain with millions of parts across many product lines can break down quickly with any weak link, be it from a supplier or in the management system itself.
Quality control, security, misrouting, package integrity in shipping are among the key issues. The sheer magnitude of tracking inventory is huge.
Boeing uses Enterprise Resource Planning and is shifting the system to a new, expanded one called Systems Applications Projects. SAP is the next generation of ERP. Even though ERP has been in use for decades, last year there was a breakdown in deliveries that contributed to production interruptions of the 737 NG (late deliveries of the CFM 56 were a bigger problem).
Boeing’s transition from ERP to SAP is taking longer than anticipated, with a 2021-ish target.
Related articles:
With the NMA business case continuing to be difficult to close, Boeing’s need to attack every cost is clear.
The range of Airbus A321XLR
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 27, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus launched the extended range A321XLR last week at the Paris Air Show.
The range of the aircraft was presented as 4,700nm with an “around 200 seat” cabin. This was 200nm more than the market expected.
We use our performance model to explain what is behind the 4,700nm figure.
Air Lease was the first presented customer for the A321XLR last week. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The 4,700nm is with “around 200” passengers and with the Airbus short range rule set.
- We calculate the range of the A321XLR with typical airline rules and with different cabin configurations, including a three class long-range cabin with lie-flat business seats.
A321XLR: where airlines will fly the Airbus aircraft
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By Vincent Valery
June 24, 2019, © Leeham News: As widely expected Airbus officially launched the A321XLR on the first day of the Paris Air Show. First deliveries are expected in 2023.
With the Maximum Takeoff Weight increased to 101 metric tons the manufacturer claims a range of 4,700 nautical miles while carrying 200 passengers. This represents an extra 700 nautical miles compared to the LR variant. Accounting for real world airline seating configurations and fuel reserves, the effective range will be lower.
Nevertheless, it will represent a significant improvement over the LR. Serial airline entrepreneur David Neeleman claims that the A321LR does not match the range of the Boeing 757-200. The XLR variant will have meaningfully more effective range than the out-of-production Boeing aircraft.
According to Airbus the A321XLR can fly direct between city pairs such as London – New Delhi and New York – Rome.