Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
With a month to elections, Embraer bolsters backlog
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Introduction
Sept. 10, 2018, © Leeham News: With the Brazilian elections less than a month away, the outcome of the presidential race will determine whether the proposed joint venture between Embraer and Boeing will be approved.
Embraer is Brazil’s most visible and prestigious international company. The government has a “golden share,” giving it veto power over certain transactions, including the Boeing deal. Boeing will own 80% of the new JV that will be for EMB’s commercial business only. Embraer will own 20%.
The incumbent government says it will approve the joint venture; the opposition party says it will veto the deal.
Summary
Including orders, options and LOIs:
- Production slots are oversold through 2023.
- The skyline quality has some challenges.
- Only three dozen firm orders were announced at Farnborough; the balance has to be firmed up.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 6, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last month we put the question if rising fuel prices will revitalize new aircraft sales. We now continue the analysis of an airliner’s costs by looking at other parts of the cost equation.
Is fuel the dominant operational cost also in the future? What’s the difference in the different costs between a legacy carrier and an LCC? We use our aircraft cost model to gain more insights.
Summary:
- To compare costs for an airliner’s operation we must distinguish between carrier types and geographies
- While keeping the modelling relatively simple, it will be possible to single out the cost drivers beside fuel and understand their importance
Suppliers chafe at Boeing’s demand for costly certifications
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Introduction
danieljcatchpole(at)gmail(dot)com
September 3, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s insistence that more and more subcontractors meet stringent 
aerospace manufacturing standards risks adding cost and reducing flexibility to the supply chain, several direct and indirect Boeing suppliers tell LNC.
The aerospace giant is requiring more second and third tier suppliers have AS9100 certification. Until recent years, OEMs and their direct suppliers typically were the only companies that formally complied with AS9100.
Subcontractors were expected to conform to the standards, but did not have to formally comply with the requirements. Doing so is expensive and time consuming. Subcontractors’ work was covered by the Tier 1 suppliers’ or Boeing’s AS9100 certification.
The AS9100 standards were adopted in the late 1990s to improve and standardize quality management throughout the increasingly global aerospace industry.
Summary
- Boeing pushing more subcontractors to be AS9100 certified, according to suppliers.
- That risks adding cost and reducing flexibility in supply chain.
- Some suppliers worry it’s a prelude to more cost cutting.
The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
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Introduction
Aug. 30, 2018, © Leeham News: As time goes by, the Middle of the Market airplane appears to have 
become the Muddle of the Market.
Boeing can’t seem to close the business case on its Middle of the Market airplane, the New Midmarket Aircraft, or NMA.
And Airbus continues to stir the pot with talk of an A321XLR and the ever-present A321neo Plus.
Summary
- Boeing’s been talking about the MOM for six years—an extraordinarily long time.
- The aircraft evolved from a 757 replacement to a 767 replacement—something the 787 was billed to be.
- The business case remains unclear.
- The Airplane definition is still a matter of debate.
- The MOM was defined by Boeing as above the 737-9 and below the 787-8—but now there’s the 737-10 at the small end, for capacity, and renewed interest in the 787-8 at the upper end.
- Airbus is pushing the A321LR and nearing a decision whether to proceed with the A321XLR.
- Engine makers remain cool to the NMA.
- The supply chain is unenthused about the NMA because Boeing wants to capture the aftermarket and hold the intellectual property rights.
- The supply chain is in melt-down.
Other than this, everything is fine.
Additive manufacturing: Huge potential, big barriers
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Introduction
Part 1 appears here.
By Dan Catchpole
August 27, 2018, © Leeham News: For all its potential, additive manufacturing faces significant hurdles before it can deliver on advocates’ assertions that the technology will revolutionize the aerospace industry.
United Technologies is counting on additive manufacturing, often called 3D printing, to help it develop and produce new components faster, better and cheaper. Paula Hay is leading the expansion of additive manufacturing at United Technologies Aerospace Systems (UTAS). In part two to last week’s interview with Hay, LNC talks to her about what problems have to be solved for additive manufacturing (AM) to make good on its potential.
Summary
- Need more consistent materials and equipment.
- OEMs and regulators have to develop AM standards.
- Design culture has to evolve to reflect AM capabilities.
Can an Airbus A321XLR kill NMA’s business case? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 23, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we examined the areas which limit the capabilities of the Airbus A321LR from addressing a larger part of what is called the Middle of the Market or the NMA segment.
We now discuss the changes Airbus can do which would make an A321XLR cover more of an NMA space.
Summary:
- The A321LR needs more fuel tankage to fly longer.
- Installing Additional Center Tanks, (ACTs) takes away critical luggage space and increases the aircraft’s empty weight.
- We explore other ways around the problem and what these bring.
UTC Aerospace Systems sees big benefits from additive manufacturing
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Introduction
By Dan Catchpole
August 20, 2018, © Leeham News: There is a fundamental tension in aerospace’s DNA.
UTC Aerospace Systems’ executive Paula Hay is leading the aerospace supplier’s adoption of additive manufacturing. (Image via LinkedIn)
It has been there since Kitty Hawk: Balancing the hunger to push technological boundaries with the desire to stay safe.
The Wright Flyer only flew after years of painstakingly testing airframes and engines. That tension between being bold and being safe is evident today in commercial aerospace’s adoption of additive manufacturing.
Just about every major player in the aerospace industry is exploring additive manufacturing, or 3D printing. Most of the integration has been at the margins. The technology is still young enough that there is no clear leader in its application to aerospace. Everyone is trying to find how to get the most from it.
Summary
- Begin with mechanical, not structural systems.
- Big parts reductions.
- Big reduction in lead time.
Can an Airbus A321XLR kill NMA’s business case?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 16, 2018, © Leeham News.: Airbus is working on improving the A321LR so it can fly more of the missions Boeing’s NMA is aimed for, according to Aviation Week. By it, Airbus could ideally make the NMA business case a No-Go.
To understand how much of the NMA market an A321XLR can address we need to understand the limitations of the A321LR and what can be done about them. And how fast such improvements could be implemented.
Summary:
- The A321LR is limited in both Take-Off Weight and fuel capacity to fly further than today’s aircraft.
- How to lift these limitations without imposing large changes is the subject of this week’s article and a follow-up article next week.
Airbus Business Line Services ramping up
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Introduction
Aug. 13, 2018, © Leeham News: While Boeing aggressively pushes its new business unit, Boeing Global Services (BGS), on a trajectory for a $50bn revenue target 
in 10 years, Airbus quietly has its own services operation.
Airbus services has a goal to reach $10bn in revenue over the next decade for its commercial services. In 2017, the Airbus Group revenue of $9bn was split roughly evenly between commercial, helicopters and defense.
BGS’ revenue target includes all services.
Unlike BGS, Airbus services are not a separate business unit/profit center. Ironically, the Airbus website describes the airliner-part as “commercial aircraft services.” Boeing’s airliner services operation was called Commercial Aviation Services, or CAS, before CAS merged with the Boeing defense operation to form BGS. The business line is promoted as Services by Airbus in collateral material.
Will rising fuel prices revitalize new aircraft sales? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 9, 2018, © Leeham News.: We continue last week’s article about how changing fuel prizes affects fleet plans. Last week we studied how long-term rising fuel prices will favour new, more fuel-efficient single-aisle aircraft.
Now we make the analysis with Widebody aircraft in the segment 250 to 300 seats.
Summary:
- The crossover fuel price where a new generation Widebody is a good investment is slightly different than for the Narrowbody.
- As for the Narrowbody, the maintenance costs for a half-life Widebody and how these are handled influence the crossover fuel price.