Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
The Airliner Production Problem
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 14, 2023, © Leeham News: For more than a year, we have heard all the Airliner OEMs complain that they can’t increase production rates because of delivery problems in their supply chain. It’s a problem that is not easy to fix; it just goes on and on.
What is the root problem behind the persistent problem of increasing production of our airliners? There are specific problems for each aircraft type and time, but some fundamental problems are behind the overall problem of increasing the production numbers.
We analyze these fundamental problems in a series of articles.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321, a model which a new customer gets delivered six years from now if the production increases to plan. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- We start describing the realities of airliner production, and what a gigantic puzzle it is.
- We also delve into the learning curve, and why it has such importance for production rates.
Pontifications: Moonshot for engines for Next Boeing Airplane may have to wait
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 12, 2023, © Leeham News: The Next Boeing Airplane (NBA) may be a moonshot for CEO David Calhoun, but airlines will probably be reluctant to take a moonshot on the next new engine.
Service issues with the CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney GTF engines are driving airlines batty. The failures of the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 years after entry-into-service (EIS) cost RR hundreds and millions of dollars and a confidence crisis that hurt future sales. LEAP engines are coming off wing well before initial forecasts. Every aircraft model using the GTF faced groundings as engine failures piled up.
Boeing sorely needs a successor to the 737, now in its 55th year and fourth iteration. Ron Epstein, the aerospace analyst for Bank of America, was biting in a Sept. 7 research note.
Flying a Boeing 737 is like driving a ‘68 Chevy Impala with a semi-modern dash.
“We note that Boeing continues to ride on the coattails of its past glory. The original Boeing 737 prototype first flew in April 1967, entering service less than a year later in February 1968 with Lufthansa. Fifty-five years later, the 737 airframe remains in service through a multitude of derivative models, including the most recent 737 MAX,” he wrote.
“However, we note that the model was never intended to be such a blockbuster long-term solution. Instead, the 737 was expected to be a band-aid for the Boeing portfolio to compete with the market share-winning DC-9. The Boeing fleet lacked a smaller narrowbody model to complement the company’s larger jets, like the 707. In the spirit of the General Motors model, the 737 was intended to be the ‘cheap Chevy’ of the portfolio. Fledgling carriers would operate the cheaper model before upgrading to Boeing’s large, higher-end products like the 707 and, later, the 747, which one could see as the ‘Cadillacs’ of the portfolio.
“In our view, while the longevity of the 737 is impressive, the aircraft is now a bit of an anachronism. Operating the aircraft is like driving around in a 1968 Chevy Impala with a semi-modern dashboard. It is important to note that the 737 is the only currently manufactured commercial aircraft without fly-by-wire controls, which are a staple in modern aircraft control system design.”
Epstein worked for Boeing from 1995 to 1999 as an Applied Research Scientist. He’s a technical advisor to United Airlines for the alternative energy sector.
Analysis: Jefferies presentations show industry hasn’t stabilized post-Covid
Subscription Required
By Bryan Corliss
Sept. 11, 2023, © Leeham News: Negative cash flow in the quarters ahead. Ongoing issues with the supply chain. OEMs struggling to meet high airline demand as Tier 1s wrestle with quality issues. New technology wearing out faster than the old systems it replaced.
The No. 1 takeaway from last week’s Jefferies Financial Group Industrials Conference presentations is that the aerospace industry is still a few years away from being in a stable state capable of meeting the demands of customers and shareholders alike.
“We know our customers really do want to make more,” said Howmet CEO John Plant, whose company casts fasteners and engine components for Tier 1s and OEMs. “The question becomes when can we achieve these improved rates?”
Plant went on to say that he believes both Airbus and Boeing will hit their goals for increased widebody production; Airbus at 9/mo on the A350, Boeing at 10/mo for the 787.
The question, he said, is whether the OEMs will hit those rates in 2025 or 2026.
Executives from Boeing, Spirit AeroSystems and Howmet all presented at the conference, and all agreed that there’s reason to be optimistic, given the strong demand from airlines for more planes.
The issue, as Plant put it, is the industry’s ability to meet that demand. “We haven’t seen the real benefits of increased aerospace production.”
- Companies discuss latest 737 quality issue
- Spirit tries to get on track as refinance deadline looms
- Gentile: Supply chain needs new contract terms
- Boeing CFO projects losses for next quarter
- Howmet talks about engine challenges
- Takeaway: Fundamental demand is strong, but…
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 29. Detailed design
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 8, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We described the Preliminary design phase of an airliner development program over the last weeks. Now our project is transitioning into Detailed design.
It’s the most challenging part of the project as we now go from perhaps a thousand people involved at the OEM into tens of thousands and even more people at consultancies and suppliers.
Figure 1. A new airliner family development plan. Source: Leeham Co.
The range of the Airbus A321XLR, Part 2
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 7, 2023, © Leeham News: The advertised range of 4,700nm for the Airbus A321XLR enables true trans-Atlantic single-aisle routes that can originate further inland, both in the US and Europe. When EASA and FAA demanded that Airbus add extra fire protection around the tank that gives the extended range, rumors told of a substantial range loss.
Last week we could see that whatever the weight increase, the range loss is not substantial. Now we look at what Airbus could do to restore the range of the A321XLR.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- We could see last week that the range shortfall from the rumored weight increases is less than rumored.
- When we look at the fixes for any range shortfall, they seem straightforward and doable.
Pontifications: History is repeating itself
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Decades after US airline unions were on the decline, some are making big gains in restoring wages, benefits, and strength.
Pilots at American, Delta, United, and Alaska airlines (among others) won big wage increases under recent contract negotiations. Pilots at Southwest Airlines are aggressively seeking more money and revised work rules. Flight attendants at American just approved a strike authorization by a wide margin.
Drivers at UPS Airlines, the package-freight carrier, won a generous new contract. Pilots at rival FedEx also became more militant in recent months.
One can hardly blame the unions for seeking dramatic wage hikes and work rule changes. Labor has been under constant pressure since the 1970s. Unions probably reached their peak strength in 1966, when five US airlines were struck at the same time by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (the IAM). Sixty percent of the capacity was grounded for 43 days. Eastern, National, Northwest, Trans World and United were affected.
The industry was highly regulated. The Civil Aeronautics Board, created in 1938, oversaw virtually everything airlines did. Routes, airfares, serving alcohol, classes of service, and mergers were tightly controlled by the CAB. So was the competition. From its inception to 1978, the CAB turned down every single application to create a new airline (except a host of local service carriers immediately following World War II) or to upgrade charter carriers to scheduled service. More than 70 applicants were turned down.
Calhoun’s moonshot for the Next Boeing Airplane
Subscription Required
Now open for all readers.
By Scott Hamilton
David Calhoun
Sept. 4, 2023, © Leeham News: As people try to figure out when Boeing is going to launch a new airplane, confusion continues over semantics and doubts continue over willingness.
The semantics revolves around the words “launch” and “introduce.”
Brian West, the CFO of The Boeing Co., appears at an investors conference Sept. 7 hosted by Jefferies, an investment bank. The event will be webcast; a link is available on the Boeing website. Perhaps West can clarify the timeline, but here is what’s happened recently.
David Calhoun, the CEO of The Boeing Co., said during Boeing’s investors’ day event on Nov. 2 last year that Boeing will “introduce” a new airplane by the middle of the next decade. LNA at that time asked corporate communications if by “introduce” Calhoun meant entry-into-service or a program launch. Corp Com replied that Calhoun meant EIS.
Last month, at another investors conference, a lower level Boeing official said Boeing would “launch” its next airplane by the middle of the next decade. If this is what the official meant, “launching” the next airplane by mid-next decade would represent a major shift. LNA figured the official was mixing words and asked Corp Com for clarity. A spokesman replied, go with Calhoun’s November statement. So, for the moment, let’s take this at face value.
Then there are the skeptics.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 28. Alternative Preliminary design
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 1, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We described the Preliminary design phase of an airliner development program last week. One could say this was the classical way that aircraft projects conduct Preliminary design.
There is a different way that Conceptual and Preliminary design can be run. It’s more along the lines of pre-development of functions, as a reader commented on two articles back.
Figure 1. An alternative new airliner family development plan. Source: Leeham Co.
The range of Airbus’ A321XLR
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 31, 2023, © Leeham News: The advertised range of 4,700nm for Airbus’ A321XLR enables true trans-Atlantic single-aisle routes that can originate inland both in the US and in Europe. It was, therefore, worrying when EASA and FAA demanded that Airbus add extra fire protection in the area where the new center tank is placed, the tank that enables the longer range.
Extra fire protection increases the empty weight, which has an impact on range. How much is lost, and what can Airbus do about it? We model the range shortfall and possible fixes with our Aircraft Performance and Cost model.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The A321XLR is the first trans-Atlantic single-aisle airliner that can fly further than coast to coast between the US and Europe.
- The range shortfall from the rumored weight increases is less than written about but still troublesome.
Pontifications: One step forward, two steps back: Déjà vu all over again.
Aug. 29, 2023, © Leeham News: It’s déjà vu all over again.
By Scott Hamilton
Last March, I wrote a piece entitled One Step Forward, Two Steps Back discussing Boeing’s efforts to climb out of the very deep hole dug by the 737 MAX grounding, suspension of 787 deliveries and the pandemic.
I noted that for every step forward, something seems to happen to set it back two steps. (A Boeing official suggested the piece should have been two steps forward, one step back, but the underlying point is made.)
The backward steps seem out of Boeing’s control. But it’s Boeing’s name on the side of the airplane and its Boeing that delivers airplanes to the customers. It’s Boeing with whom customers are frustrated.
The latest step backwards that delays deliveries again of the 737 MAX comes from Spirit AeroSystems. Misdrilled holes for the aft pressure bulkhead are blamed this time. The full extent of the flaw, with impacts, number of planes affected, etc., is still being assessed at this writing. Spirit says a supplier is responsible for this issue.
This follows a previous setback when Spirit found that one of its suppliers provided parts that failed to meet specifications which attached the vertical tail to the fuselage of the 737.
These flaws, revealed within months of each other, negatively impact the delivery of new production 737s and delivery of some of the more than 200 MAXes that remain in inventory due to the 2019 21-month grounding of the MAX.
Before that, Spirit’s quality control on the 787 nose section it builds for Boeing was found to have flaws. Deliveries were suspended for nearly 20 months. Eventually, Boeing had 110 newly built 787s in inventory that require rework. The inventory won’t be cleared until the end of next year.