Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing dominates Dubai Air Show opening day (Updated with additional news)
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Despite Boeing saying it was going to concentrate on outlining a path for certification of the 777X at the Dubai Air Show, the company dominated the opening day with new orders.
Embraer also announced a few orders at the show.
Airbus was a no-show for commercial deals on opening day.
Emirates Airline announced an order for 65 777-9s, with a list price value of $38bn. It has rights to change the order to the 777-8 or the stretch 777-10, should Boeing decide to proceed with this model. Emirates president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to stretch the 777 into a larger capacity -10 model. Nominally the -9 seats 465 passengers, which would likely be much lower in Emirates’ premium configuration.
“Emirates’ latest agreement with Boeing also provides strong backing for Boeing’s feasibility study to develop the 777-10, a larger variant of its 777X family,” the airline said in a statement.
After Airbus discontinued the giant A380, Clark has been vocal that a plane larger than the 365-seat A350-1000 or the 465-seat 777-9 is needed. Airbus years ago evaluated stretching the -1000 into a “-2000” to match the size of the 777-9 but decided then the market couldn’t support the airplane.
GE Aerospace supplies the engines for the 777-9. It says there is enough reserve power to accommodate a 777-10. Rolls-Royce powers the A350-1000 with its 97,000 lb thrust Trent XWB 97. It’s unclear if this engine could power a -2000.
Regardless, if Boeing proceeds with a 777-10 and Airbus proceeds with an A350-2000, Boeing will still dominate the Very Large Aircraft sector (+400-seats). The -2000 would be significantly smaller than the 777-10.
Ethiopian Airlines committed to purchase 11 additional 737 MAX jets.
Emirates was expected in some quarters to finally be ready to place an order for the A350-1000.
Embraer’s possibilities with a stretched C-390
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Sales of Embraer’s E195-E2 have taken off this year after a long period of stagnation.
It also appears that its slow-selling military KC-390 tanker-transport is gaining traction as well.
Embraer’s order book for the C-390 is approaching 50, with several NATO countries recently ordering the aircraft. the C-390. Non-NATO orders are also customers. Embraer is pitching several countries for large orders, according to a May analyst report from JP Morgan. Embraer is also pitching the US Air Force for between 20-30 C-390s, LNA is told. If the Pentagon places an order, Embraer pledges to build a US final assembly line.
Orders and possibilities for Embraer’s C-390. Credit: JP Morgan report, May 2025.
Embraer calls the 390 “a meetable combination and ready for the next 50 years,” Marcio Eduardo Monteiro, Embraer’s vice president of Market Intelligence and chief marketing officer, said during the company’s annual investors day in October.
Dubai Air Show, Day 1: Boeing’s 777X; Anticipated orders
Boeing Insists 777X Widebody Is Worth the Wait
By Charles Alcock • Managing Editor
Charlotte Bailey • Writer
Nov. 16, 2025, © AIN: Twelve years since Boeing launched the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Airshow, the OEM is back on-site with both its 777-9 test aircraft and a renewed confidence that delays to the protracted certification schedule are finally over.
With Boeing continuing to steadily work through FAA type inspection authorization (TIA) test phases, head of airline marketing for the 777X Justin Hale has a “high confidence” the airplane will enter service by 2027, with certification forthcoming as soon as 2026, he told reporters during a briefing on the eve of the Dubai Airshow on Sunday.
The full story may be found here.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 16. Certification Compliance Planning.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
November 14, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We are in the Detailed Design phase and working with the Certification Compliance plan.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
*** Special thanks to Andrew Telesca for helping with this article ***
What’s the status of the alternative propulsion projects for air transport?
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 13, 2025, © Leeham News: The interest for new and more environmentally friendly aircraft got underway in 2014, when Airbus flew the battery-electric E-fan demonstrator at the Farnborough Air Show in July, Figure 1.
The car revolution to battery-electric cars had taken off two years earlier, when Tesla introduced the Model S sedan with elegant styling and very good performance and economy for a family car (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The battery-electric aircraft demonstrator and the car that started it all. Credit: Airbus and Tesla Inc.
Tesla cars had proven that electric cars could match and even outpace combustion-engine cars in performance and operational costs, though not in driving range. But range was a matter of battery capacity development, and hopes were high for a similar situation and development for aircraft.
As is the case with almost every technological leap, the progression of alternative propulsion aircraft projects followed the Gartner Technology Hype curve (Figure 2).
Figure 2. The Gartner Hype Curve for alternative propulsion aircraft. Credit: Gartner and Leeham Co.
The start was around 2015, passing the Peak of Inflated Expectations around 2020. In the 11 years since 2014, we’ve had hundreds of entrepreneur-driven projects declare they will make environmentally friendly aircraft and airliners a reality.
Nothing useful has come out of these projects, so today, we are passing the Trough of Disillusionment. Investors have stopped funding alternative propulsion startups as these have not produced useful air transport. The result is a mass death of projects, most silently, some more openly.
The core of the remaining projects are run by experienced teams with solid aeronautical knowledge. These are now passing into the Slope of Enlightenment and will make real progress. Given that we are now entering a more productive phase, we take stock of these developments and their programs.
To help the analysis, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model, APCM, to show what the challenges are and how alternative propulsion can address these challenges.
UPS MD-11F crash, theft of trade secrets lawsuit impacts on cargo market
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: The Nov. 7 UPS MD-11F crash and a new trade theft secret lawsuit are likely to impact the air freighter new sales and conversion markets.
Boeing MD-11Fs of FedEx and UPS were grounded following the Nov. 7 crash of a UPS MD-11. Credit: NBC News.
Boeing recommended grounding MD-11Fs pending inspections of the engines and pylons, a move mandated within a day by the Federal Aviation Administration. The cause of the crash is unknown. The No. 1 engine separated from the widebody cargo airliner on takeoff from the Louisville (KY) airport. The airplane had passed the V1 commitment speed when a fire broke out, and the engine and pylon separated from the airplane.
The cause of the fire and the sequence of separation remain under investigation. More than a dozen people were killed, including the three pilots on the plane and the rest on the ground, when the plane crashed into an industrial park.
A theft of trade secrets lawsuit was filed on Oct. 20 in the US Federal District Court in Oregon by P2F company Precision Aircraft Solutions LLC against Mammoth Freighters, also a P2F conversion company. Precision converted Boeing 757s from passenger to freighter configuration and now converts Airbus A321ceos. Mammoth converts Boeing 777-200LRs and 777-300ERs.
One of the principals of Precision, William Wagner, left Precision and years later co-founded Mammoth. About 20 employees from Precision went to work for Mammoth and, for a time, Precision and Mammoth cooperated on the latter’s process to achieve a Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) for its conversions, according to the complaint filed in federal court. Precision alleges that its former employees signed Non-Disclosure Agreements that restricted the use of its trade secrets for the benefit of Mammoth.
The unrelated UPS crash and the lawsuit may have ramifications for the respective segments of the air cargo market.
Boeing breaks ground to double 787 FAL capacity; analysis of orders/options
Subscription Required
By the Leeham News Team
Nov. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing on Friday broke ground at its Charleston (SC) 787 production campus for a second final assembly line (FAL) building to meeting growing demand for the airplane.
Boeing’s current footprint in Charleston (SC). (Note the airplane-shaped park in the upper left.) Credit: Boeing.
Boeing has announced more than 300 orders for the 787-9 and 787-10 this year. There are now more than 1,000 787s in backlog. More than 1,200 have been delivered.
There are hundreds of more options for the airplane and even more Letters of Intent.
Boeing will construct a building, left, of 1.2m sf–the size of the Composite Wing Center in Everett (WA), doubling 787 assembly capacity. Credit: Boeing.
Boeing currently is assembling seven aircraft a month at the plant, its peak at this facility before the COVID pandemic began in March 2020. The Charleston facility then matched the 7/mo also being assembled at Boeing’s Everett plant. Following COVID and the virtual halt in production during much of the two year effects of the pandemic, Boeing consolidated all 787 production in Charleston.
The facility currently has a maximum capacity of 10/mo. CEO Kelly Ortberg said on the 3Q2025 earnings call that that the expansion will double the capacity.
“We’re going to double the…manufacturing footprint. We don’t need double, but it also gives us a lot more flexibility for some storage space as well. We think that the market demand will allow us to get to rates in the teens, and that’s what we’re focused on,” Ortberg said on the call. The plant will open in 2028, according to current planning.
LNA has analyzed Boeing’s current 787 backlog, using the database dated Oct. 7 from Cirium. The database trails Boeing’s website backlog of 1,048 as of Oct. 31, showing a firm order backlog of 997. However, Cirium’s data also shows Boeing’s Options and Letters of Intent. Delivery years are shown in all four categories.
Using this data, LNA plotted the entire delivery stream, extending to 2043.
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 15. Detailed Design of Structures
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
November 7, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have now entered the Detailed Design phase, where we use the Airframe structure design as an example of the work during this phase.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
*** Special thanks to Paul Smith for helping with this article ***
Embraer ponders mainline jet–but this must compete internally with other projects
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Embraer Group CEO Francisco Gomes Neto. Credit: Embraer.
Nov. 6, 2025, © Leeham News: When it comes to new airplane development, Airbus and Boeing get all the headlines.
The world’s third-largest airplane manufacturer, Embraer, gets overlooked. Compared with the Big Two, Embraer is small potatoes—and the market for which it is best known, its E-Jet, is primarily associated with regional airlines flown by major carriers, not the big airlines.
Given the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing, their delivery delays, the latter’s groundings, production, safety and quality concerns, many urged Embraer to move up to the mainline jet sector. Competing with Airbus and Boeing would be daunting enough. There is also China’s emerging COMAC to consider. COMAC may be struggling today for geopolitical and industrial reasons, but commercial airplane programs are 40-50-year endeavors. Few doubt that COMAC will become a force in the future.
Embraer acknowledges it is considering developing an airplane with 180-240 seats, presumed to be a single-aisle aircraft. However, this is far from the only possibility of a new program. In addition to the risks and rewards of taking on the Big Two and COMAC, here’s what else Embraer is up to. Studies are also underway for:
- A larger business jet;
- A smaller commercial jet;
- Continued research and development of its Energia environmental aircraft initiative; and
- The final stretch for bringing the EVE eVTOL to market.
There’s only so much money to go around. Development of a mainline jet must compete internally for a piece of this pie.
Embraer developed more than 20 new aircraft designs since 2000, a record unmatched by other manufacturers. Credit: Embraer.
Embraer has designed, developed, and produced more than 20 aircraft since 2000. Most of them required commercial certification.
Embraer’s largest aircraft are the E195-E2 and the KC-390 tanker-transport. Dimensionally, these are about the same size as the Boeing 737-8 and Airbus A320neo.
Despite similarities to other accidents, don’t draw conclusions in UPS accident
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Yesterday’s crash of a UPS Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11F evokes memories of American Airlines flight 191 in Chicago and the Air France Concorde crash in Paris.
The moment of impact of a UPS Boeing MD-11F freight that crashed on take-off from the Louisville (KY) airport. Credit: USA Today.
The UPS plane’s No. 1 engine apparently separated from the wing at around V1, the take-off speed, at the Louisville (KY) airport, where UPS’ main US hub is located. This is similar to the engine separation of the No. 1 engine of the American McDonnell Douglas DC-10 at a similar point on its take-off roll at O’Hare Airport. (This was the first aviation accident that I had as a reporter.)
American’s flight did not catch fire on take-off, but the slats on the left wing retracted after the engine damaged the hydraulic lines along the leading edge of the wing. There is a famous aviation picture of the DC-10, with its wings vertical to the ground, missing the engine, seconds before the plane crashed in a trailer park next to the airport. Valves were later added to the DC-10 to prevent such a retraction in the future.
The UPS MD-11, a derivative of the DC-10, did catch fire. So did the Air France Concorde, after running over a part that was on the runway at Charles de Gaulle Airport that fell off a preceding flight (ironically, a Continental Airlines DC-10). The Concorde’s tires threw the part into the wing fuel tank, which ignited. There is a famous picture of the Concorde, committed to take off, aloft on fire.
The UPS flight sequence, captured on multiple videos, is eerily similar to the American and Air France crashes. One video shows the MD-11 with its wings vertical to the ground, as the left wing sliced through a building seconds before impact.
Despite similarities, exercise caution in drawing conclusions.