Future materials: aluminum lithium, standard metals or composities

The Farnborough Air Show isn’t just about orders, though these get all the sex and headlines.

While we weren’t at the show, we had a telephone interview with a company called Constellium, previously known as Alcan. Constellium spoke at the February conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, with which we are involved. We were particularly interested in talking with Constellium because it is a major supplier of Aluminum-Lithium, an alternative material to standard aluminum and a competing material to composites.

Constellium’s Al-Li combines other processes, including a design for recycling, and is named AirWare. Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier are among their key customers, and it is Constellium that is providing the materials for the CSeries. It’s also a supplier on the Airbus A350 (internal components, not the fuselage).

As Airbus and Boeing looked at the A320neo and 737 MAX, and as Boeing is looking at the 777X, we asked them about the prospect of using Al-Li. This is lighter than standard aluminum, more durable, less susceptible to corrosion and enabled 12 years between major maintenance overhauls compared with the 6-8 years now.

But Al-Li is more difficult to work with than standard aluminum. Boeing’s Mike Bair told us in an interview that Boeing considered Al-Li back in the 1990s when designing the 777 but it was too difficult and costly to manufacture. Since then, he praised the producers for strides. There are mixed reports what material will be used for the 777X fuselage: standard metal or Al-Li. The Seattle Times reported the airplane will have Al-Li. We’ve been told it won’t. But with the airplane still months and perhaps a year from launch, there is plenty of time to decide.

Airbus, in an interview at the Paris Air Show last year, said it was evaluating Al-Li for the A320neo. The A320ceo is heavier than the competing Boeing 737 and the re-engine adds about 4,000 lbs. Using Al-Li would mitigate some of this weight. We haven’t heard if Airbus might go ahead with Al-Li, but we’re leaning toward concluding that it won’t.

Boeing told us it will not switch to Al-Li for the MAX because the manufacturing process is just enough different that it would add complexity and cost to the current tooling and procedures.

Al-Li vs composites is a competition that will likely be fierce when it comes time for Airbus and Boeing to design the next clean-sheet airplanes, presumed to be the New Small Airplane, or replacement for the current 737/A320 class. (Boeing may have a new clean-sheet for the 757 class; it has a New Airplane Study underway for this, but the market may be too narrow when one considers the 737-9 MAX and A321neo will do 95% of what a 757 can do.)

Composites, selected for the 787 and A350 XWB fuselages and wings, offer advantages over standard metal fuselages that have been well documented and need not be repeated here. But Airbus and Boeing question the efficiency and benefits of down-scaling composites to 737/A320 category airplanes. Boeing apparently became convinced: Jim Albaugh, former CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said the New Small Airplane would have been composite, but the ability to produce it at a rate of 60 per month remained a challenge. Boeing went with the MAX instead.

Vistagy, a composite manufacturer near Boston, told us nearly two years ago, that the down-scaling challenges were met and that production rates were the issue. Autoclaves are very costly and so is the manufacturing process. There is actually less industrial waste than traditional aluminum manufacturing, but the materials are generally more hazardous—though there have been strides on this score.

This is the background that intrigued us when we had the opportunity to speak with Constellium’s Simon Laddychuk, VP of Manufacturing Global Aerospace and Director of Technology. Read more

Farnborough, Day 1: Orders, Price Calculator and other stuff

McNerney rejects “price war.” A quote from a Financial Times story (see below).

He rejected suggestions that a price war had broken out between Airbus and Boeing over the A320 Neo and 737 Max but confirmed the US manufacturer would woo some airline customers of its European rival.

Courtesy of Aspire Aviation, here is a summary of orders through Day 1:

Airbus

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Arkia Israel Airlines

4

A321neo

Agreement

Boeing

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Air Lease Corp (ALC)

60

737 MAX 8

Reconfirmation rights for 25 more

9th July

Air Lease Corp (ALC)

15

737 MAX 9

Pratt & Whitney

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

IndiGo

300

PW1100G-JM

9th July

CIT

60

PW1100G-JM

9th July

Cebu Pacific

60

PW1100G-JM

For 30 firm A321neos

9th July

Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)

100

PW1100G-JM

MoU

CFM

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Air Lease Corp (ALC)

150

CFM Leap-1B

Embraer

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Hebei Airlines

5

E-190s

Booked in Q2 backlog

Reuters put together a handy-dandy thing to calculate airplane prices easily. These are list prices, of course.

Some stories of note:

Boeing lands the first blow

High-fliers at the show

United to announce big MAX order July 12

A330 “surgery”

AirInsight is posting daily news and videos.

The Financial Times of London has a piece with Boeing’s Jim McNerney. (Free but limited registration required.) Here’s a relevant quote.

Boeing announced the 737 Max in August last year and Mr McNerney said that “in retrospect” the US manufacturer should have made its decision to proceed with a revamped version of its narrow-body workhorse, rather than a brand new aircraft, “six to nine months” earlier.

Farnborough Odds and Ends: Cathay and A350; AirAsia and CSeries??; BBD on CSeries timeline; Boeing’s Conner

Some more stories out of Farnborough, the day before the show officially starts:

Reuters has two stories, one we’ve been tracking for some time (Cathay) and one that is totally new (and totally surprising) (AirAsia).

Cathay could end A350-1000 drought.

AirAsia looks at 160 seat version of CS300. We knew BBD has a 160-seat version, high density. We hadn’t heard of AirAsia’s interest. Predictably, Airbus’ John Leahy dismissed the idea. If he tried to kill the CSeries before, this will really get his dander up. AirAsia is one of his largest customers. Maybe we can see a dance-off between Leahy and Bombardier’s chief executive Pierre Beaudoin.

Bombardier Talks About CSeries Timeline. Videocast over at AirInsight.

Bombardier lands new CSeries customer. Add moreCS100s, CS300s to the mix.

Boeing’s Ray Conner, new CEO of Commercial Airplanes, speaks with The Seattle Times.

Boeing, US plot export strategy for KC-46A.

Farnborough underway with CFM press conference

Tweets from Saturday’s CFM press conference:

Bernie Baldwin@BernieBaldwin

#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines Part commonality between LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B very little.

Jon Ostrower@jonostrower

CFM: 737 Max Leap-1B engine core has 10-stage 22:1 pressure ratio in the HPC. 1st 5 stages are blisks. Plans 5-stage LPT. #FIA12

Bernie Baldwin@BernieBaldwin

#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines doesn’t see a commercial use of open rotor technology in the thrust range where CFM sits now until about 2030.

Stephen Trimble@FG_STrim

Another shot from @CFM_engines: Each Leap-powered A320neo will have $3-$4M net present value advantage on 15yr term against A320neo w/PW1200

Bernie Baldwin@BernieBaldwin

#FARN12, #FIA12 @CFM_engines LEAP-1A/1C design freeze took place on 28 June 2012, drawings now being released. -1B freeze will be mid 2013.

Stephen Trimble@FG_STrim

Interesting: @CFM_engines predicts Leap-1A will beat PW1200 on MX by 50h/yr on A320neo. Also 4 fewer “fill-ups”. #FARN12 #FIA12

Looks like @CFM_engines expects CFM56 production to phase out completely by 2019, meaning no more A320neos & 737NGs. #FIA12 #FARN12

Here is a full story from The Wall Street Journal. Author Jon Ostrower also posted the following image on his Facebook account:

The mid-size, twin-aisle battle

The mid-size twin-aisle battle

While a plethora of new entrants are nipping at the heels of Airbus and Boeing in the single-aisle market, the battle in the twin-aisle segment is strictly between the two behemoths.

The two OEMs differ on the size of the market by a wide margin. Airbus, in its 2011 20-year Global Market Outlook, the most recent available, forecasts a need for 6,525 twin-aisle airplanes: 4,518 “small” twin aisles and 1,907 “large” twin-aisles. Boeing, which does not publicly distinguish this segment, forecast a need for 7,950 twin-aisles. This is in the 200-400 seat segment (Airbus uses 210-400 for its forecast).

Given their methodology differences in the total market forecast, both nonetheless come to the same market share—24%–of the mid-size, twin-aisle segment.

The line-up is:

Read more

Boeing’s twin-aisle product strategy provides better segment coverage than Airbus

Boeing’s airplane strategy has shifted its focus to twin-aisle aircraft with the decision to proceed with the 737 MAX, says Nicole Piasecki, vice president of Business Development & Strategic Integration for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

BCA has some critical tasks and choices ahead:

  • Complete the design and get into production the 787-9;
  • Launch the 787-10; and
  • Decide what to do to enhance the 777 to compete with the Airbus A350-1000.

Although launching the 787-10 is considered by most to be a foregone conclusion, it hasn’t happened yet. And although Boeing has been showing some reasonably detailed concepts around about the 777-8X, a 350-passenger replacement for the 777-300ER, and the 777-9X, a 407 passenger aircraft, neither concept is firm—and, according to one airline fleet planner, it’s not even clear Boeing will do much more than simply re-engine the current 777-300ER.

Nonetheless, Piasecki showed a group of reporters the Boeing product planning in a pre-Farnborough Air Show briefing that clearly demonstrates Boeing has better market segment coverage than Airbus today or potentially in the future. (Click to enlarge.)

Read more

No plateau on 737NG: Boeing

“There is no plateau in interest on the 737NG,” says Boeing’s Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the stalwart program.

“Even though there are a lot of challenges in the industry, the growth, particularly in the single aisle market in emerging markets and Low Cost Carriers, continues to give us a lot of confidence the demand is out there. Even with the struggles in Europe, there seems to be a little tension between replacement demand and growth demand. We don’t see any pullback in the demand on the 737 at our current production rates or a weakness in demand as we transition to the MAX.”

Wyse gave this assessment during a briefing to the media in advance of the Farnborough Air Show. The briefings were embargoed until July 5.

“Basically we are full all the way through to the middle of 2016. We do have some capacity left in 2016 and 2017 prior to the introduction of the MAX,” she said. “We do have some NGs out in 2018 but that capacity is filling up. We still have customers coming in for NG and MAX four or five or six years out.”

She predicted there will be a two-three year transition period of NG and MAX overlap, though she prefers two years. Wyse acknowledged that the 737-based BBJ and P-8A Poseidon could further extend production of the NG even if passenger models are discontinued.

Read more

Aircraft demand: Comparing the Big Four OEMs

(Note: The Market Outlook information was released July 3; this piece contains information that was embargoed to July 5.)

Boeing updated its 20 year forecast, from 2012-2031, upping the total market demand about 600 airplanes.

In its annual release just before a major international air show, in this case Farnborough, Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, said the latest numbers forecast a requirement of 34,000 through 2031 with a value of $4.5 trillion.

This breaks down:

Boeing Current Market Outlook, 2012-2031

Category

Number/Share

Value ($ Billions)/Share

Very Large Aircraft (>400 seats)

740/2%

260/6%

Twin Aisle (201-400 seats)

7,950/24%

2,070/46%

Single Aisle (91-200 seats)

23,240/68%

2,040/46%

Regional Jets (70-90 seats)

2,020/6%

80/2%

This is more optimistic than the 20 year forecast by Airbus. The most recent Airbus forecast—2011-2030—forecast only 26,921 aircraft, more than 7,000 fewer than Boeing—but Airbus does not forecast regional jets nor below 100 seats.

Read more

Odds and Ends: Airbus-Mobile, con’t; final Farnborough update

Airbus in Mobile: We doubt Boeing is really Sleepless in Seattle but this piece is pretty amusing.

Take that, Part 1: Boeing continues to whine about WTO.

Take that, Part 2: So’s your Old Man.

Here are a few final thoughts in advance of the Farnborough Air Show:

  1. It will still be Boeing’s show, with MAX orders or MOUs or Commitments or Love Letters amounting to the hundreds. Look for Air Lease Corp, GECAS, Aeromexico, perhaps some Chinese companies and others to announce.
  2. Airbus’ John Leahy has been tamping down expectations all year but Mr. Showman doesn’t like to be left standing on the sidelines. While you’re watching Boeing’s left hand, don’t be surprised if Leahy pulls a rabbit out of the hat with Airbus’ right hand and ends the show with several hundred orders of his own.
  3. Yes, we predict the Airbus-Boeing sniping will continue. And the sun will rise in the East and set in the West.
  4. Embraer isn’t even holding a press briefing. So we don’t expect much out of them this year.
  5. Bombardier may or may not have CSeries orders to announce. The market doesn’t expect (m)any, concluding that the countdown to first flight is what will begin bringing in orders.
  6. No new program announcements from Boeing (ie, nothing new on 787-10 or 777X). No announcement from Airbus, either, on A350 program developments or the prospect of a long-range, upgraded A330-300 (we think this could come at FAS but just as likely could be later in the year).
  7. No 90-seat turbo-prop from anyone.
  8. This is now Ray Conner’s coming out party as the new (and unexpected) CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Based on our limited contact with Conner, he’s not as affable as the departed Jim Albaugh. It will be interesting to see how aggressively engaging he is with Boeing’s nemesis, Leahy.

Odds and Ends: Coverage on Airbus’ Mobile move and other thoughts

Randy Tinseth, VPO of Marketing for Boeing, is always fast with the quip–via Flight Global’s Twitter: “Market is about product, people and customers, not the address on your business card.”

Mobile Press-Register: general overview.

Reuters: Unions aren’t happy–but guess what, it’s US unions.

Chicago Tribune: Boeing’s home-town paper has this about Boeing losing a tactical edge–according to Airbus.

The Economist: Slaps Boeing and Airbus for their continued bickering over trade. Hear, hear.