Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Odds and Ends: More on 100-149 seat jet market; aircraft op cost comparisons; Super Guppy
100-149 Seat Market: AirInsight has more on its study of the 100-149 Seat Market analysis and why it will be turbulent in the next five years.
Cost Comparisons: Aspire Aviation has a long article on the Cathay Pacific Airways earnings but to us the most interesting parts are the operating cost comparisons between various CX fleet types. It’s all buried in the article.
Super-Guppy: The Puget Sound Business Journal has a video from inside the NASA Boeing Super Guppy. 
Based on the old Boeing Stratocruiser, the Super Guppy is a specialty airplane originally designed to transport Atlas rockets. Later, Airbus used them to transport fuselage sections around Europe to final assembly in Toulouse. This is probably the last operating variant of any B-377/C-97/KC-97. It’s the last of the Super Guppies. With the retirement of the NASA Shuttle fleet, we wonder what will become of this airplane.
Boeing and SPEEA: the debate heats up
Boeing’s engineers’ union, SPEEA, has been pretty vocal in its campaign to members with internal statements, its website and on Twitter–the latter certainly read by media.
Boeing now has launched a public website of its own.
Odds and Ends: Seeking an injunction against A320 sharklet sales; more
A320 Sharklets: Remember the lawsuits between Aviation Partners and Airbus over winglets and sharklets? AP wants an injunction against A320 sharklet sales. That sure got Airbus’ attention.
American and US Airways: Bloomberg has a long piece on US Airways’ effort to acquire American Airlines.
Emirates Airlines: The fast-growing carrier is about to become the world’s third largest.
Airbus and US Spending: Airbus wants to double its US supply-chain sourcing to $24bn.
Boeing BWB: This article has some pictures of Boeing’s latest version of the Blended Wing Body research model.
Boeing appears to finally drop 737-600
Boeing has updated its price list and for the first time, the price for the 737-600 is missing. Boeing hasn’t sold a 737-600 since 2005. In June, Boeing told us the model was still being offered. Not any more, apparently. We’ve sent an inquiry to Boeing for an official statement.
Update, 12:30pm: Boeing gave us this statement at 0900 but we’ve been away from the computer until now:
- Should customers request to order a Next-Generation 737-600, BCA Sales will work with the customer to meet their requirements.
- The Next-Generation 737-600 model will continue to be supported by the 737 Program.
We note that this statement doesn’t really confirm or deny the discontinuation of the 737-600 offering.
Update, 3:45pm: Linda Lee, the 737 program spokesperson, got back to us with this slightly expanded response from that offered by a non-program spokesman earlier today. Lee said:
| Old $mm | New $mm | Diff$mm | % Diff | |
| B737-600 | 59.4 | 0 | -59.4 | -100% |
| B737-7 MAX | 77.7 | 82 | 4.3 | 6% |
| B737-700 | 70.9 | 74.8 | 3.9 | 6% |
| B737-8 MAX | 95.2 | 100.5 | 5.3 | 6% |
| B737-800 | 84.4 | 89.1 | 4.7 | 6% |
| B737-9 MAX | 101.7 | 107.3 | 5.6 | 6% |
| B737-900ER | 89.6 | 94.6 | 5.0 | 6% |
| B747-8 | 332.9 | 351.4 | 18.5 | 6% |
| B747-8F | 333.5 | 352 | 18.5 | 6% |
| B767-200ER | 151.5 | 160.2 | 8.7 | 6% |
| B767-300ER | 173.1 | 182.8 | 9.7 | 6% |
| B767-300ERF | 175.4 | 185.4 | 10.0 | 6% |
| B767-400ER | 190.2 | 200.8 | 10.6 | 6% |
| B777-200ER | 244.7 | 258.8 | 14.1 | 6% |
| B777-200F | 280.1 | 295.7 | 15.6 | 6% |
| B777-200LR | 275.8 | 291.2 | 15.4 | 6% |
| B777-300ER | 298.3 | 315 | 16.7 | 6% |
| B787-8 | 193.5 | 206.8 | 13.3 | 7% |
| B787-9 | 227.8 | 243.6 | 15.8 | 7% |
Boeing nabs Airbus customer SilkAir
Boeing won an important, symbolic victory over Airbus in the neo v MAX competition by nabbing SilkAir, heretofore an exclusive Airbus A320 family customer.
SilkAir will order up to 68 Boeing 737-800s and -8 MAXes.
After Airbus grabbed three 737 customers for its neo family, Boeing vowed to aggressively go after Airbus operators. SilkAir is the first win in this effort.
Odds and Ends: the cost of a 737-800; Planes take off despite ground mishap; ‘We know about this’
Boeing 737-800: Wells Fargo’s aerospace analyst team issued a note today that confirms its previous calculations that American Airlines is paying $40m-$41m for its 737-800s.
Update, August 1: We received this note from Wells Fargo: What was confirmed was AA’s SELLING price to AerCap and ILFC, NOT what AA is paying.
American Airlines: AirInsight has this analysis of the current American Airlines situation.
Speaking of American: Flight Global has this story about how an American 767-300ER and a Ryanair 737-800 brushed each other on the ground all pilots were unaware and both airplanes took off.
One more American: The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has this series of 49 photos and airline liveries, past and present, starting with American.
And then there is Alaska Airlines: A passenger snapped this photo on an Alaska Airlines flight. Via NYCAviation’s Tweet.
SPEEA, Boeing contract: Don’t expect an “IAM breakthrough”
SPEEA, the engineers union at Boeing, and the company appear to be at odds in the early stages of contract negotiations and there appears virtually no chance of a surprise breakthrough similar to the IAM 751-Boeing contract last December.
People familiar with the situation on both sides say they are hunkered down for traditional contract negotiations in advance of the October 4 amendable date.
SPEEA suggested in June 2011 that both sides go to binding arbitration as a first, not last step as a way to speed up a contract and avoid protracted, potentially contentious negotiations. Boeing declined, according to SPEEA and confirmed by a person familiar with the Boeing position. According to two sources, Boeing didn’t want to give up decision-making to a third party. Boeing also didn’t see the urgency or need to avoid normal contract negotiations, according to the person familiar with the Boeing thinking.
Perspective on 787/GEnx engine event at Charleston
It wasn’t even 10:30 PDT and we had already received quite a few phone calls from media and Wall Street asking what we thought of the weekend engine event on an Air India Boeing 787 equipped with GEnx engines during a test at Boeing’s Charleston plant.
The airplane was on a runway when some parts shot out the tailpipe. The hot parts set grass along the runway on fire, closing the airport for an hour.
You can find a lot of stories on Google News but this one is typical–and, in our view, the headline is overly inflammatory.
We saw the early Tweets about the event and pretty much shrugged the event off. It was a test flight, it’s a new engine type, engine “events” happen more than the public or media realize, nobody was hurt, what’s the big deal?
So we’re surprised by how much interest this generated. True, it’s on the 787 and program difficulties mean that the paint could peel and it would become a headline.
Here’s what we’ve told those who called:
- We’re not concerned. Engines spewing parts is not unknown. It’s the nature of anything mechanical and with a new engine type, the prospect of glitches is elevated. It’s all a matter of context.
- There is no connection between this incident and the engine failure on the ANA 787. ANA’s airplanes are powered by Rolls-Royce engines; this incident was a GEnx engine.
- Any suggestion (and there were two) that this might have something to do with the presumption the airplane was made in Charleston is just silly. The engine was made in Ohio (or some other GE plant). Furthermore, there are three Air India airplanes in Charleston, two of which were flown there from Everett. We don’t know which airplane was involved.
- The authorities, GE and Boeing will consider as cause (in no particular order): FOD (foreign object damage–did the engine ingest something that caused the parts to separate and eject from the rear?; design flaw; defective part; and human error in assembly.
Based on what little is known right now, we don’t see any material impact, if any at all, to the 787 program.