Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
Odds and Ends: CFM progress on LEAP-1B; advancing 737 MAX EIS, Bombardier and more
CFM on LEAP-1B: Aviation Week has this snippet about progress being made on the LEAP-1B. Contained within is a small reference to Boeing advancing EIS of the 737 MAX, which Boeing said was its desire from the get-go. For those who may have forgotten, EIS is 4Q2017. We understand Boeing would like to bring this forward to 1Q or 2Q2017.
Bombardier on CSeries: the company has been urged to deeply discount the CSeries to boost sales. Ain’t gonna happen, the CEO says.
Helping COMAC win certification: Bombardier says it will help COMAC win certification for the C919 outside China. But we’re still waiting to see what BBD gets out of the deal.
Inerting Boeing 757F fuel tanks: Or not.
Posted on June 15, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries
737 MAX, Boeing, Boeing 757, Bomabrdier, C919, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Leap-1B
Odds and Ends: China trojans; China is the biggest threat; EADS ponders own bank
China trojans: we’re not talking about condoms, either. This item from Defense Tech is pretty alarming. And while this piece is also pretty alarming, though it isn’t about China. Or maybe it is. The chips are made by the same company, sourcing them in China.
China is the biggest threat: So says Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Aviation Week has this article about an Albaugh appearance in the UK.
EADS ponders its own bank: This would give it access to low-cost funds and protect against the Euro, officials say. Here’s an article. Our first thought: since the WTO ruled Airbus launch aid was illegally structured because of below market rates (but did not rule the aid itself illegal), this returns EADS/Airbus to the low-cost funding access. Clever. Wonder what Boeing thinks about this?
Posted on June 1, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Odds and Ends: Airbus Innovation Days, CSeries, SC-787-1 first flight
Airbus Innovation Days: Thursday wraps up the annual Airbus press briefings. All stories are embargoed until 5pm Toulouse time Thursday. That’s today. Or tomorrow. Depends on what time zone you’re in and right now we’re still pretty confused about that. Meantime:
Republic Airways suggests plan for CSeries: CEO Bryan Bedford, whose comments in the last year have done Bombardier no favors, seems to have an intriguing idea, outlined in this story. The airplane is too big to operate for US carriers with Scope Clauses, but the economics provide a highly efficient aircraft for LCCs. So Bedford suggests operating one aligned with alliances.
Southwest, Delta and Boeing Capital: By now readers probably saw the news of a plan for Southwest Airlines to sublease the Boeing 717s from the AirTran fleet to Delta Air Lines. Most of the 88 planes are leased from Boeing Capital Corp by AirTran. This deal has been bandied about almost from the day Southwest agreed to buy AirTran. It’s entirely in keeping with the Delta management (nee Northwest Airlines management), who like to acquire cheap, older aircraft to keep cap-ex costs down.
SC-787-1 First Flight: South Carolina’s first 787 made its first flight yesterday. Or was that today? (We’re still confused by the time zone.) See this story.
Posted on May 23, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Posted on May 15, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Odds and Ends: KC-787 unlikely; Qatar on A380, A350 and CSeries; more Airbus-Boeing bickering
KC-787?: Defense News has this article quoting Jim Albaugh that the prospect of a KC-787 is unlikely.
Qatar on Airbus, Bombardier: Qatar’s Akbar Al-Baker says he won’t take the Airbus A380 without a permanent fix for the wing L-brace cracks. In the same story, Al-Baker comments on the redesign of the A350. Al-Baker also said talks for the Bombardier CSeries are on hold for 6-12 months. Details in this story.
More Airbus-Boeing bickering: It’s tiresome enough that Airbus and Boeing publicly bicker over the A320 v 737, neo v MAX and 747 v A380. Now they are in a public pissing match over the 737 BBJ and the Airbus ACJ business jets. Both sides need to act like the world-class companies they are.
Here’s to flying British Airways: No comment necessary.
Posted on May 14, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
PW to dual-source neo engine manufacture
Pratt & Whitney will dual source manufacture of the A320neo GTF engine so there is no single point of failure, an official said at the PW Media Day in Hartford.
Tom Mayes, general manager of the company’s Middletown (CT) facility, also said that a decision hasn’t been made for a production location of the GTF version for the Mitsubishi MRJ. PW is assembling the Bombardier CSeries version at Montreal Mirabel Airport.
PW CEO David Hess said the GTF, offered on the A320neo, the CSeries, MRJ and the Irkut MC-21, will drive PW’s revenues from $12.7bn last year to twice that by 2020. Over the life of the program, Hess estimates the GTF will produce $325bn in revenues.
There currently is a backlog of more than 2,600 GTFs.
Ground and flight testing is validating promises about GTF performance, Hess told the international media: 16% better fuel consumption vs today’s engines, lower noise and on-target maintenance forecasts.
Posted on May 2, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Odds and Ends: Taking airplanes in on trade; Q400 scores
Taking airplanes in on trade: Much is being made of Boeing taking five Airbus A340-600s in on trade to secure an order for 20 777-300ERs from China Eastern. While trade-ins are not common, neither are they unknown. Boeing has done this before, including what was then a particularly controversial deal: taking brand-new A340s off the hands of Singapore Airlines even before they had been delivered as part of a 777 deal. Those A340-300s went straight to Boeing from Airbus, much to the consternation of John Leahy at the time.
The OEMs don’t like to take airplanes in on trade; after all, they are in the business of selling new airplanes, not used ones, but Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier all have active used airplane units to remarket aircraft they have in their own portfolios–usually originating from their customer financing.
Bombardier wins Q400 deal: WestJet of Canada will order 20 Q400s and option 25 more in what was a hotly contested deal between ATR and Bombardier. Although many believe this was a slam-dunk for Bombardier, the competition was intense; WestJet sent the parties back to re-price the deal late in the game.
This order gives BBD 28 firm and 45 options for the Q400 so far this year, compared with a mere seven in 2011.
The Russians Are Coming, the Russians Are Coming! Boeing imports Russian engineers to work in the Seattle area, much to the consternation of SPEAA, Boeing’s engineer’s union. Now the practice has caught the attention of a US Senator.
Outsourcing is a sore point for Boeing’s unions. While Boeing says it does so to reduce costs and to offset work in exchange for sales, there is a larger issue: the US simply doesn’t produce enough engineers to meet demand, and 50% of Boeing’s engineers reach retirement age in the next five years or so. We don’t like Boeing using Russian or Chinese help to produce airplanes–after all, these two countries are developing competitors to Boeing aircraft and it strikes us as pretty silly to help your competitor (why not hire French or German engineers, for Pete’s sake?). But the USA’s failure to place a high priority on developing engineers is a national disgrace and Boeing has to find the help where it can get it.
Posted on May 1, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier
777, A340, Airbus, ATR, ATR-72, Boeing, Bombardier, China Eastern, Q400, Russia, Singapore Airlines
ISTAT Part 3: Lessors Panel: GECAS, ILFC, AWAS, Air Lease Corp
The final panel at the ISTAT meeting is the much-anticipated lessors’ panel consisting of:
Jeff Knittle, president of CIT Aerospace, moderator;
Henri Courpron, Chairman of ILFC;
Ray Sisson, CEO of AWAS;
Norman Liu, CEO of GECAS; and
Steve Udvar-Hazy, CEO of Air Lease Corp.
Paraphrasing:
Posted on March 20, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
ISTAT Part 2: BBD, EMB, Sukhoi, ATR
Chet Fuller, SVP Commercial, Bombardier
Luiz Chiessi, Director of Marketing Strategy of Embraer
Mark Neeley, VP-Marketing, ATR
John Buckley, VP Business Development, Sukhoi Superjet International
Fuller
- CSeries weight validated and will be on spec at EIS.
- Aluminum Lithium is better on fatigue than normal aluminum, much better on corrosion. Combine with composites, D check goes to 15 years. C check improved by 15%.
- 787 first airplane with All-digital architecture, CSeries is second.
- Last all-new narrowbody was A320 family.
- Only aircraft with a 12:1 by-pass ratio; A320neo is 10:1, not sure what ratio Boeing will wind up with on MAX.
- CSeries has better trip costs than E190, with seat costs of A3320neo. There is no magic here, there is just physics.
- BBD has on order: 66 CS100, 72 CS300; 124 options, 10 purchase rights, 45 LOIs.
Chiessi
- Mid-long-haul flights for 70-90 seats increasing in US and elsewhere.
- 48% of EJet deployment is right-sizing by airlines. 26% for new market development.
- Will maintain leadership in 70-120 seat segment, not enter into arena of Airbus and Boeing.
Buckley
- SuperJet International responsible for world product support of Sukhoi for SSJ100.
- Delivered seven aircraft, another in two weeks.
- Expect to deliver 23 this year, 42 next year, 60 in 2014, 75-80 total current capacity but can be increased.
- SSJ100 is only regional aircraft with 2×3, 5 in wider than MD80.
- 10% less fuel consumption than direct competitor.
Neeley
- ATR top turbo prop pick in Airfinance Journal investors poll.
- We’re still making a 50-seat product. We have a family of airplanes.
- Says ATR 72 has same fuel burn per passengers as A320.
- One third of all passengers fly under 300 miles.
Posted on March 19, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Republic’s Bryan Bedford emulates U-Turn Al
The CEO of Republic Airways Holdings seems to be vying to be America’s version of U-Turn Al, Akbar Al-Baker, the CEO of Qatar Airways.
Bedford appears to be engaged in a campaign to raise questions about the Bombardier CSeries, for which he has orders and options for 80 CS300s, much the same way U-Turn Al alternatively praises then complains about the Airbus A350, Boeing 747-8F (ordered by Cargolux, in which Qatar owns a third) and the Boeing 787. U-Turn Al has also alternative praised, condemned then praised the Airbus A320neo, Bombardier CSeries and the Pratt & Whitney GTF.
Keeping up with U-Turn Al’s about-faces has been a dizzying prospect.
Bedford praised the CSeries when ordering it but has become increasingly skeptical of the program once he ordered the A319neo (with CFM LEAP engines) in what was a financial bailout of his ailing company being dragged down by Frontier Airlines. The Airbus order raised questions whether Bedford would cancel the CSeries since the A319neo competes with the CS300. Bedford initially said the order would stand. More recently, he appears to be doing everything to cast a shadow over the program.
Posted on March 15, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney
737-700, 747-8F, 787, A319, A319neo, A320NEO, A350, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Bryan Bedford, Cargolux, CFM, CSeries, E-190, E-195, Embraer, GTF, LEAP, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Republic Airways, U-Turn Al