Boeing is leaning toward a new airplane to replace the 737 rather than proceeding with a re-engining program, an aerospace analyst wrote in a report issued today.
Richard Safran of the boutique Buckingham Research came away from Boeing Capital Corp’s annual investor’s update with an analysis that is a potentially paradigm-shifting conclusion that Boeing will forget about the widely-assumed plan to re-engine the 737 to meet an expected decision by Airbus to re-engine the A320 family–itself a decision largely driven by competition from Bombardier’s CSeries.
This is our quick take because we’re really busy.
Bombardier has positioned itself for a major CSeries order in China with the announcement on March 30 of a $3.85bn financing deal with a Chinese financial institution.
CDB will provide the financing for Bombardier’s Q400 turboprop, the CRJ and the new CSeries. Bombardier already contracts with the growing Chinese aerospace industry for major fuselage sections and other components for all three of these airplanes.
Geneva, Switzerland: Here is a report we did for Commercial Aviation Online from the Aircraft Finance and Commercial Aviation conference, followed by some additional commentary and reporting exclusive to this column concerning the prospect of re-engining the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737. Our additional commentary includes a discussion of the Bombardier CSeries and the PW GTF engine.
Here is a podcast we did today on the topic.
Update, March 24, 10:15PM Central European Time:
The reaction to the WTO Final Report at the Aircraft Finance Conference is a Big Yawn, even among Americans here in the Geneva, Switz, venue. As one person with close ties to Boeing put it, “Nobody cares.”
At a briefing we attended Tuesday night about the final report, we didn’t hear anything that meaningfully changed our commentary below.
The Final Report on the US complaint about illegal subsidies to Airbus is due tomorrow (March 23), but it will remain confidential until sometime in April before a public version is released for all to see.
Partisans on both sides of the dispute are already lining up in pre-issuing statements and, in the US case, an orchestrated media campaign touting how dastardly Airbus has been.
Yeah, well, whatever.
This story has suddenly picked up speed as both Airbus and Boeing discuss re-engine options for their single aisle airplanes. Scott Hamilton and Jon Ostrower discuss the nuances facing both firms – the engine options, the competitor moves and of course, the CSeries which seems to be driving a lot more of the discussion than many would give it credit for. The stakes are huge for Airbus and Boeing as their biggest money makers are faced with being leapfrogged by new engine technologies that enable a CSeries to take away crucial orders. Republic’s recent order was more influential than many think – and the chance to win at United is quite real for the CSeries. Consequently a lot of time is being spent at Airbus and Boeing talking, designing and considering options. This is a fascinating story unfolding before us.
Here is a 28 minute podcast by Innovation Analysis Group on this subject. It could have been longer….
AirInsight has released a report entitled “The Coming Aerospace Squeeze – a review of commercial aircraft programs in Brazil, Canada, China, Japan and Russia.” This report summarizes current and planned aircraft programs in each of these countries and the potential impact of those programs on the commercial aerospace market.
Here we go, the first fall-out of the Airbus-Boeing trade Interim Report. Brazil (Embraer) complained to the European Union about launch aid by Canada to Bombardier for the CSeries and asked the EU to force Canada to cancel the package. Predictably, Canada invited Brazil to…do…something.
The Paris Air Show begins on June 15 and we’ll be there.
We’re attending the EADS media day on the 13th and will extend our stay through Tuesday (the show runs through Friday). We don’t expect much in the way of orders. The biggest anticipation will be whether Boeing will fly the 787 before or during (not “at”) the show.
Here are things as we understand them going into the show: