Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

There's more to real news than a news release.

Farnborough, Day 2: Dullsville; 737 MAX weights, ranges

Update, 8:30 PDT: If anyone thought Airbus’ John Leahy doesn’t have some orders up his sleeve, get a gander at this from Reuters:

Airbus sales chief John Leahy was in typically combative and upbeat form: “The party’s over?. Why, it’s only the second day of the show, for heavens’ sake,” he said of suggestions orders were drying up. “We’ll have some important announcements.

Original Post:

Another reason we’re glad we didn’t waste our time and money going this year: a dearth of activity.

  • Bombardier: Air Baltic signs LOI fo 10+10 CS300s, replacing its Boeing 737 Classic fleet. Delivery from 1Q15. This delivery date is interesting; BBD had said the line was sold out to 2016.
  • Airbus: Cathay Pacific ordered 10 A350-1000s and converted 16 A350-900s to -1000s. It still has 20 A350-900s on order from a previous deal. Airbus also booked one order for an A319/Sharklets from Drukair of Bhutan.
  • Boeing: Widely anticipated, GECAS announced that it is committed to 75 737-8 MAXs plus 25 -800s. The deal has to be confirmed into an order. This sort of falls into the so-what category; GECAS was one of the 1,000 “orders and commitments” and this is simply a public announcement of its previous “commitment.” This is not a firm order. Since sister company CFM makes the engines, a deal from GECAS was an eventual certainty. ALAFCO announced a “commitment” to 20 MAX 8s. We believe this is a new commitment, not part of the previously announced 1,000, but we’re not sure. It appears so since Boeing now lists the customers at 17.
  • Pratt & Whitney: BOC Aviation selected the IAE V2500 for more A320 family members. JetStar selected the IAE V2500 for 32 A320s.
  • Superjet: Interjet orders fives more SSJ100s.


Perhaps the biggest news: Boeing finally has released the weights and ranges of the MAX. From the Boeing press release:

Comparative* maximum take off weights and range limits for the Next-Generation 737 and 737 MAX:

MTOW (lb) Range (nmi) Two-class seating
737-700 154,400 3,400 126
737 MAX 7 159,400 3,800 126
737-800 174,200 3,080 162
737 MAX 8 181,200 3,620 162
737-900ER 187,700 3,055 180
737 MAX 9 194,700 3,595 180

*Next-Generation 737 values are calculated with Blended Winglets. Typical mission rules, two-class seating applies.


 23 Comments

 Posted on July 10, 2012 by

 AirInsight, Boeing, Bombardier, Sukhoi

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Farnborough, Day 1: Orders, Price Calculator and other stuff

McNerney rejects “price war.” A quote from a Financial Times story (see below).

He rejected suggestions that a price war had broken out between Airbus and Boeing over the A320 Neo and 737 Max but confirmed the US manufacturer would woo some airline customers of its European rival.

Courtesy of Aspire Aviation, here is a summary of orders through Day 1:

Airbus

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Arkia Israel Airlines

4

A321neo

Agreement

Boeing

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Air Lease Corp (ALC)

60

737 MAX 8

Reconfirmation rights for 25 more

9th July

Air Lease Corp (ALC)

15

737 MAX 9

Pratt & Whitney

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

IndiGo

300

PW1100G-JM

9th July

CIT

60

PW1100G-JM

9th July

Cebu Pacific

60

PW1100G-JM

For 30 firm A321neos

9th July

Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)

100

PW1100G-JM

MoU

CFM

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Air Lease Corp (ALC)

150

CFM Leap-1B

Embraer

Date

Customer

Quantity

Model

Remarks

9th July

Hebei Airlines

5

E-190s

Booked in Q2 backlog

Reuters put together a handy-dandy thing to calculate airplane prices easily. These are list prices, of course.

Some stories of note:

Boeing lands the first blow

High-fliers at the show

United to announce big MAX order July 12

A330 “surgery”

AirInsight is posting daily news and videos.

The Financial Times of London has a piece with Boeing’s Jim McNerney. (Free but limited registration required.) Here’s a relevant quote.

Boeing announced the 737 Max in August last year and Mr McNerney said that “in retrospect” the US manufacturer should have made its decision to proceed with a revamped version of its narrow-body workhorse, rather than a brand new aircraft, “six to nine months” earlier.

 8 Comments

 Posted on July 9, 2012 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney

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Farnborough Odds and Ends: Cathay and A350; AirAsia and CSeries??; BBD on CSeries timeline; Boeing’s Conner

Some more stories out of Farnborough, the day before the show officially starts:

Reuters has two stories, one we’ve been tracking for some time (Cathay) and one that is totally new (and totally surprising) (AirAsia).

Cathay could end A350-1000 drought.

AirAsia looks at 160 seat version of CS300. We knew BBD has a 160-seat version, high density. We hadn’t heard of AirAsia’s interest. Predictably, Airbus’ John Leahy dismissed the idea. If he tried to kill the CSeries before, this will really get his dander up. AirAsia is one of his largest customers. Maybe we can see a dance-off between Leahy and Bombardier’s chief executive Pierre Beaudoin.

Bombardier Talks About CSeries Timeline. Videocast over at AirInsight.

Bombardier lands new CSeries customer. Add moreCS100s, CS300s to the mix.

Boeing’s Ray Conner, new CEO of Commercial Airplanes, speaks with The Seattle Times.

Boeing, US plot export strategy for KC-46A.

 11 Comments

 Posted on July 8, 2012 by

 Airbus, Bombardier, CSeries

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Farnborough underway with CFM press conference

Tweets from Saturday’s CFM press conference:

Bernie Baldwin ‏@BernieBaldwin

#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines Part commonality between LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B very little.

Jon Ostrower ‏@jonostrower

CFM: 737 Max Leap-1B engine core has 10-stage 22:1 pressure ratio in the HPC. 1st 5 stages are blisks. Plans 5-stage LPT. #FIA12

Bernie Baldwin ‏@BernieBaldwin

#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines doesn’t see a commercial use of open rotor technology in the thrust range where CFM sits now until about 2030.

Stephen Trimble ‏@FG_STrim

Another shot from @CFM_engines: Each Leap-powered A320neo will have $3-$4M net present value advantage on 15yr term against A320neo w/PW1200

Bernie Baldwin ‏@BernieBaldwin

#FARN12, #FIA12 @CFM_engines LEAP-1A/1C design freeze took place on 28 June 2012, drawings now being released. -1B freeze will be mid 2013.

Stephen Trimble ‏@FG_STrim

Interesting: @CFM_engines predicts Leap-1A will beat PW1200 on MX by 50h/yr on A320neo. Also 4 fewer “fill-ups”. #FARN12 #FIA12

Looks like @CFM_engines expects CFM56 production to phase out completely by 2019, meaning no more A320neos & 737NGs. #FIA12 #FARN12

Here is a full story from The Wall Street Journal. Author Jon Ostrower also posted the following image on his Facebook account:

 9 Comments

 Posted on July 7, 2012 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries

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Bombardier mitigates Chinese fuselage risk

We learned about this months ago, but off the record, so we could never use it. This is why we weren’t exercised about the Shenyang connection on Bombardier’s CSeries. Aviation Week has the story and published it here. Having said that, we believe first flight by the end of this year is unlikely, as we reported previously.

 11 Comments

 Posted on July 6, 2012 by

 Bombardier, Comac, CSeries

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Aircraft demand: Comparing the Big Four OEMs

(Note: The Market Outlook information was released July 3; this piece contains information that was embargoed to July 5.)

Boeing updated its 20 year forecast, from 2012-2031, upping the total market demand about 600 airplanes.

In its annual release just before a major international air show, in this case Farnborough, Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, said the latest numbers forecast a requirement of 34,000 through 2031 with a value of $4.5 trillion.

This breaks down:

Boeing Current Market Outlook, 2012-2031

Category

Number/Share

Value ($ Billions)/Share

Very Large Aircraft (>400 seats)

740/2%

260/6%

Twin Aisle (201-400 seats)

7,950/24%

2,070/46%

Single Aisle (91-200 seats)

23,240/68%

2,040/46%

Regional Jets (70-90 seats)

2,020/6%

80/2%

This is more optimistic than the 20 year forecast by Airbus. The most recent Airbus forecast—2011-2030—forecast only 26,921 aircraft, more than 7,000 fewer than Boeing—but Airbus does not forecast regional jets nor below 100 seats.

Read more

 17 Comments

 Posted on July 5, 2012 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier

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Odds and Ends: Airbus-Mobile, con’t; final Farnborough update

Airbus in Mobile: We doubt Boeing is really Sleepless in Seattle but this piece is pretty amusing.

Take that, Part 1: Boeing continues to whine about WTO.

Take that, Part 2: So’s your Old Man.

Here are a few final thoughts in advance of the Farnborough Air Show:

  1. It will still be Boeing’s show, with MAX orders or MOUs or Commitments or Love Letters amounting to the hundreds. Look for Air Lease Corp, GECAS, Aeromexico, perhaps some Chinese companies and others to announce.
  2. Airbus’ John Leahy has been tamping down expectations all year but Mr. Showman doesn’t like to be left standing on the sidelines. While you’re watching Boeing’s left hand, don’t be surprised if Leahy pulls a rabbit out of the hat with Airbus’ right hand and ends the show with several hundred orders of his own.
  3. Yes, we predict the Airbus-Boeing sniping will continue. And the sun will rise in the East and set in the West.
  4. Embraer isn’t even holding a press briefing. So we don’t expect much out of them this year.
  5. Bombardier may or may not have CSeries orders to announce. The market doesn’t expect (m)any, concluding that the countdown to first flight is what will begin bringing in orders.
  6. No new program announcements from Boeing (ie, nothing new on 787-10 or 777X). No announcement from Airbus, either, on A350 program developments or the prospect of a long-range, upgraded A330-300 (we think this could come at FAS but just as likely could be later in the year).
  7. No 90-seat turbo-prop from anyone.
  8. This is now Ray Conner’s coming out party as the new (and unexpected) CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Based on our limited contact with Conner, he’s not as affable as the departed Jim Albaugh. It will be interesting to see how aggressively engaging he is with Boeing’s nemesis, Leahy.

 15 Comments

 Posted on July 4, 2012 by

 Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer

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Farnborough Air Show preview

Overview

This is really expected to be a boring show from the perspective of orders. Airbus has been downplaying expectations following last year’s Paris Air Show blow-out of more than 1,200 A320neo orders. How can you match that? The answer is, Airbus can’t.

Boeing will certainly firm up hundreds of 737 MAX commitments, so this will be Boeing’s show. And there is the buzz that Boeing is partnering with Lockheed Martin and NASA (oh, another government subsidy?) to produce a 2,500 mph SST, with details supposed to come at the Air Show. Then there is the leak that the 787 will fly there, the first time in 28 years Boeing has an aerial flying display.

We’ve talked with several journalists and industry personnel who are skipping the Air Show this year. So are we, and we’ve been at the Farnborough and Paris air shows since 2008. We just don’t expect enough news this year that we can’t get from the press releases.

So here are our expectations for the show:

Read more

 16 Comments

 Posted on June 26, 2012 by

 Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

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De-risking CSeries–but margin is gone

Note to Readers: In May, we attended the Pratt & Whitney media day, followed by the Airbus Innovation Days the same month and then the Boeing Pre-Farnborough Press Briefings over two days. This week we attended the Bombardier Farnborough Briefing. Boeing’s briefings are embargoed to July 5. We’re still digesting the PW event to tie information to news in the near future. Bombardier released its 20 year forecast, but we plan to tie that to information that was discussed at the embargoed Boeing briefings.

Bombardier made news with its statement that CSeries is on time. We dug a little deeper, however, and confirmed what had been hinted by Bombardier officials much earlier: that there is no margin left between now and the planned first flight by year-end.

At the same time, we received a run-down on some specific component areas that have been highlighted by analysts as risk areas. Here we go:

Read more

 36 Comments

 Posted on June 21, 2012 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney

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Odds and Ends: CFM progress on LEAP-1B; advancing 737 MAX EIS, Bombardier and more

CFM on LEAP-1B: Aviation Week has this snippet about progress being made on the LEAP-1B. Contained within is a small reference to Boeing advancing EIS of the 737 MAX, which Boeing said was its desire from the get-go. For those who may have forgotten, EIS is 4Q2017. We understand Boeing would like to bring this forward to 1Q or 2Q2017.

Bombardier on CSeries: the company has been urged to deeply discount the CSeries to boost sales. Ain’t gonna happen, the CEO says.

Helping COMAC win certification: Bombardier says it will help COMAC win certification for the C919 outside China. But we’re still waiting to see what BBD gets out of the deal.

Inerting Boeing 757F fuel tanks: Or not.

 67 Comments

 Posted on June 15, 2012 by

 Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries

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