Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
AirInsight has exclusive detail about MRJ delay
Mitsubishi last month announced a delay of more than one year for the MRJ, but was rather vague about the reason.
AirInsight has the detail, following an interview at the Pratt & Whitney media day attended by officials of the Japanese company in town for the first flight of the MRJ’s PW GTF engine.
Odds and Ends: Boeing revises MAX winglet, adding 1.5% to efficiency
Update, 2:15 PM PDT: Airbus issued this response to the Boeing development:
“This kind of split-tip device was among the options we studied for the A320 Family, and we decided instead to advance with our Sharklet design as the most efficient. Our Sharklet figures (3.5% improvement over the already-efficient A320 wing with wing-tip fences) are flight-test proven.”
Original Post:
Boeing today announced a revised winglet to add 1.5% in fuel efficiency for the 737 MAX, releasing a photo. See here. This will be on top of the advertised 10%12% fuel burn gain previously announced.
Separately, David Hess, CEO of Pratt & Whitney, told the PW media day “that as far as we know, the 737 MAX is not an opportunity for us,” citing the Boeing-CFM exclusivity agreement.
Update, 0900 PDT: Boeing held a tele-press conference to discuss the new “Boeing Advanced Technology Winglets,” (BATW) which it also called “dual feathered” winglets.
Boeing said this is an exclusive Boeing design and not derived from a similar design promoted by Aviation Partners. Key points:
- Up to 1.5% lower fuel burn, depending on the length of mission;
- The design used Computational Fluid Dynamics to design it, a process used from the 787/747-8 programs;
- This is completely new technology, not having roots to the MD-11 which has a similar-looking wingtip arrangement;
- The wingspan is increased by only “inches” compared with the NG;
- The BATW is likely scalable to larger aircraft;
- There are no current plans to make the BATW available on the NG, though this could change;
- Although there will be some benefit to range, the BATW isn’t significant;
- Boeing now claims 18% better all-in costs than the current Airbus A320 (based on figures as a starting point Airbus disputes);
- This just about does it for aerodynamic changes to the 737; architectural changes should be nailed down in the third or fourth quarter; and
- “Our major trades aerodynamically are done.”
Aviation Partners has a similar concept; the differences between Boeing and AP are evident.
Here’s how McDonnell Douglas executed a similar concept on the MD-11:
Odds and Ends: A320ceo production to end in 2018–PW; responds to 777X RFI
A320 Current Engine Option: The Airbus A320ceo production will end in 2018, according to David Hess, the president of Pratt & Whitney. Hess made the remarks today at the annual PW media day.
Hess said PW anticipates delivering an aggregate of 8,000 V2500 engines by the time the A320ceo winds down.
GTF to have >1m hours by year-end 2015: Hess also said the GTF will have accumulated more than 1m hours of tests and operations by the end of 2015 and more than 3m hours by the time the Boeing 737 MAX enters service in 4Q2017.
PW revenue will double from $12.7bn today: Hess said revenue will double by the end of 2020, driven by the GTF and aftermarket support. “The engines that we are developing today will define PW.”
Second GTF variant enters flight test: The Mitsubishi variant of the GTF made its first flight yesterday.
PW responds to Boeing RFI for 777X engine: in the 90,000-100,000 lb class. The benefits of GTF grow the larger the engine, says Hess.
Odds and Ends: ‘We’re happy with LEAP, confident it will meet target’
During the Boeing 1Q2012 earnings call, CEO Jim McNerney had this to say about the story that won’t die (that Boeing continues to look at the PW Geared Turbo Fan for the 737 MAX):
The gear turbo fan, the — yes. The — right now, as I think we’ve announced many, many times, we are working exclusively with CFM on the MAX, and we’re very happy with the development there. We’re confident that we can meet the targets that our customers need and that we’ve promised them. So that’s our plan going forward.
“Right now.” Was this a Freudian slip or an inconsequential choice of words?
Boeing likes American Airlines as stand-alone: McNerney also said Boeing prefers AA to emerge from bankruptcy as a stand-alone airline. This is no shock; the US Airways management is exclusively Airbus, and while American strayed from Boeing last year, it still placed a large order for 737NGs/737 MAXes.
McNerney talks about pricing: I think the summary on pricing is 777 steady, steady as she goes, capturing value, in many ways a uniquely positioned airplane today and significant productivity associated both with better conversion and with taking up rate. So the margin environment there, I would say, is good and favorable going forward. 37, all of the comments I just made on productivity apply. Significant productivity, both absorption kind of productivity due to increased rate as well as conversion productivity per unit. Slightly more aggressive pricing environment due to the introduction of the MAX and the NEO. So there’s launch customer kinds of pricing that have happened in a few cases. But I think at the end of the day, the — we anticipate about half of that market, which is a big number. And we see a pricing environment that’s not too different than the pricing environment we’ve had historically after we get through some of the launch customer — loss — launch customer pricing, which is part and parcel with our business.
[Source for all the quotations: Seeking Alpha Transcripts.]
We are hearing there essentially is a price war going on right now between Airbus and Boeing for single aisles, as Boeing attempts to stem the inroads and success by Airbus with the A320neo. In this case, we’re hearing Boeing is the aggressor (which follows, since it is playing catch-up).
Boeing won Delta Air Lines on the 737-900ER v A321 competition largely on price, we understand–bidding 10% lower than Airbus. We also believe price is likely the determining factor in the soon-to-be-completed United Airlines deal, where Boeing is widely reported to now be the favorite.
Another story that won’t die
We’ve recently tagged a few items “a story that won’t die.” Here is another one, the continuing analysis of the Pratt &
Whitney GTF for the Boeing 737 MAX.
Although Boeing’s Lauren Penning told The Puget Sound Business Journal there isn’t a “team” at Boeing working on this prospect, reports out of Aspire Aviation (now Orient Insight), Aeroturbopower, Airline Economics and last month’s ISTAT meeting continue to create buzz on this topic. The AirInsight piece was published in limited circulation two weeks ago.
Odds and Ends: Revisiting a 757 crash; Boeing-WTO appeal due this week
Boeing 757 Crash: In 1996 a Birgenair Boeing 757 crashed into the sea, following discrepancies with the pitot tubes speed indications. This story revisits the circumstances.
Boeing WTO appeal: The appeal of the WTO panel findings that Boeing received illegal subsidies is due Wednesday. The EU filed a technical appeal to start the clock while the US Trade Representative filed a substantive appeal. Both sides will claim victory, in yet another round of what we consider to be a meaningless load of [stuff]. Our disdain for the WTO is well known to readers of this column.
Rolls-Royce: Flight Global has an interesting piece on Rolls-Royce’s product strategy.
90-Seat Turbo-Props: Flight Global also has an article on the engine development for the prospective 90-seat turbo-props.
COMAC C919: China’s aerospace authority, CAAC, has taken a hands-off approach to the design of the COMAC C919–a development that isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the project.
Southwest Airlines: A blog item from Terry Maxon of the Dallas Morning News lists Southwest operations at hub cities–and what’s interesting is that Chicago Midway Airport is one of WN”s least efficient city from an asset utilization standpoint. Look at the number of gates-to-flights in the charts.
PW GTF-CFM LEAP market share
AirInsight has an interesting analysis of the market share of the GTF vs the LEAP on the A320neo family. This was completed while the Singapore Air Show was underway and orders still being announced.
The analysis only covers the neo family, where there is competition between CFM International and Pratt & Whitney. CFM is exclusive on the Boeing 737 and COMAC C919 and PW is exclusive on the Mitsubishi MRJ and the Bombardier CSeries. PW shares the engine supply position on the Irkut MS21 with a Russian powerplant.
Thus, the neo family competition provides a better snapshot of how the two engines stack up in the view of customers.
A couple of points of note for the AirInsight analysis: GECAS buys only GE engines, so PW had no chance in this exclusive-supplier scenario; and Republic’s CFM selection was part of a financial rescue package involving GECAS (which leases A319s and A320s with CFM engines to Republic subsidiary Frontier Airlines) and CFM (which restructured CFM maintenance agreements). We detailed the Republic order at the time. We also wrote this piece about how the GE powerhouse combines to win deals. The family deal with GECAS and the rescue package for Republic account for 280 of the 533 LEAP engines ordered to-date.
Separately, we’ve been provided some diagrams by CFM for publication about the LEAP and how its architecture and technology benefit from the GE90 and GEnx. These illustrations are below the jump.