Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 8. A battery-based airliner
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 15, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series on fundamental costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs), we have started analyzing if the size related cost factors also apply to green propulsion airliners and if the trends stay the same or change.
We use the Heart Aerospace ES-30 project as an example of a battery-based airliner with range extenders. Last week we developed the fundamental aero data for the aircraft with our Aircraft Performance and Cost model; now, we fly representative sectors and look at the energy and fuel consumptions compared to a similar-sized turboprop airliner.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- There is a difference between what the theory says about aircraft range on batteries and how you have to fly in practice to keep battery costs down.
- The ES-30 has dual range-extending Turbogenerators. They get going more often and at a shorter range than advertised.
As Airbus ponders the A220-500, Boeing shrugs
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By Scott Hamilton
June 12, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun says he’s not worried about the prospect of Airbus launching a stretched model of the A220 family.
Airbus has said it’s a matter of “when, not if” it launches the A220-500. This would be a direct competitor to the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737-8 MAX. Sales of the A320N are declining in favor of its larger sibling, the A321neo. The MAX 8 is Boeing’s bread-and-butter member of the MAX family.
Calhoun, during Boeing’s pre-Paris Air Show media briefing last month, said the -500 doesn’t give him heartburn. But he didn’t go into detail.
Darren Hulst. Credit: Darren Hulst.
Darren Hulst, VP of Commercial Marketing for Boeing, did the next day. Hypothetically, the value of the 737 family is probably best illustrated when you talk about the choice that an airline must make with a 320 base family or an A220 base, he said. Assuming Airbus goes forward—which it said is not going to happen at the Air Show beginning next week—Hulst said the market will decide its success of failure.
Summary
- Commonality vs capacity.
- No growth opportunity after A220-500.
- Limited market for the A220-500; the market may have passed the -500 by.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 7. How affected are Green airliners?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 8, 2023, © Leeham News: We have analyzed the costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs), and how these vary with different size airliners. The aim was to search for fundamental trends and if these disadvantaged a smaller airliner versus a larger one.
We found that a smaller airliner (we analyzed from 190 seats down to 9 seats) has structural cost disadvantages versus a larger model. The analysis was made with conventional gas turbine-propelled planes so as not to complicate the work. Now we introduce airliner types with green propulsion concepts and see if the trends stay the same or change.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- We analyze the fundamental characteristics of a hybrid 30-seat airliner and compare it to the conventional airliners we characterized in the series.
- The negative cost trend for smaller airliners worsens for a battery or hybrid airliner.
Boeing still hopes for 737-7 certification this year, 737-10 next year and an Amended Type Certificate for the 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing continues to face a plethora of paperwork to certify the 737 MAX 7 this year. Officials hope to certify the largest member of the family next year, but won’t commit to this goal.
Boeing 777-9. Credit: Leeham News.
And there is no reason, at this time, to believe the 777-9 will require an entirely new type certificate despite major changes to the airplane.
So says Mike Fleming, senior vice president-Development Programs and Customer Support. Fleming made his remarks at Boeing’s media briefing on May 31 in advance of the Paris Air Show, which beings in two weeks.
Embraer gears for growth
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 1, 2023, © Leeham News: We attended a briefing on Embraer’s strategy for the years ahead last week. The company has regrouped after the failed Joint Venture with Boeing in 2020 and the tough COVID years.
The focus has been on streamlining operations after the carve-out of the Commercial Aviation division was reversed. The reintegration was followed by efficiency projects in all divisions to lower costs, free capital, and pay down debt.
Only from a strengthened economic base can Embraer go for growth in the years ahead.
Embraer E2 jet ordered by Scoot. Source: Embraer.
Summary:
- Embraer has turned corners in Finance, Executive jets, and Defense with the KC-390.
- Now, the E-Jets shall follow, with sales of E2s picking up over the last six months.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 26, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag. It discusses in detail the Blended Wing Body (BWB) type of airframe that shall reduce the airframe wetted area and thus air friction drag.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 6
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 25, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered the cost factors that make up the Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs).
We now compile the Cash Operating Cost for the aircraft on a typical sector and discuss the result.
Figure 1. The D238eco 40-seat airliner. Source: Deutsche Aircraft.
Summary:
- The Cash Operating Costs do not reduce in proportion to passenger numbers for a smaller airliner.
- As a consequence, a small airliner needs a higher load factor or yield to be viable.
Making the case for competing the next USAF tanker procurement
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By Scott Hamilton
May 22, 2023, © Leeham News: The US Air Force is moving slowly toward another aerial refueling tanker procurement. With hundreds of ancient Boeing KC-135 tankers still to replace, the procurement will be a big one: more than 160 jets.
Concept of the Lockheed Martin LMXT aerial refueling tanker it wants to sell the US Air Force. This tanker is based on the Airbus A330 MRTT now in service. Credit: Lockheed Martin.
The big question that is as yet unresolved is whether the Air Force will place a follow-on, sole-source order with Boeing, or seek a competitive bake-off. If it’s the latter, a bid by Lockheed Martin Co. (LMCO) will be the competition. (Others may submit a bid, but the Boeing-Lockheed face-off will be the one to watch.)
LMCO partnered with Airbus to offer the A330 MRTT (Multi-Role Tanker Transport). This sets up a third Boeing-Airbus contest that could well be as bitter as the two previous ones. Make no mistake: although Lockheed will be the company submitting the bid, Airbus will become the target. It already has. Boeing surrogates lost no time in attacking Airbus after LMCO announced it will submit a bid, using the same old tired illegal subsidies claims and adding some new ones.
One surrogate questioned Airbus’ safety record. This was an astounding line of attack, considering the Boeing 737 MAX history and all the scandals that emerged in its development; and the 2013 grounding of the Boeing 787 for safety reasons. Airbus has never had a fleet type grounded by regulators for safety reasons traced to the design of the aircraft. (India’s regulator grounded A320neos equipped with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines due to issues related to the engine durability.)
More relevant is whether it makes economic and financial sense for the Air Force to have two primary tanker fleets: Boeing’s KC-46A and the A330 MRTT. LNA visited LMCO last month in Marietta (GA), the location of much of its defense business. It’s where the LMXT, as Lockheed calls its offering, will be militarized after production at Airbus’ Mobile (AL) aerospace complex should LMCO win the contract—if the procurement is competed.
LNA tomorrow will discuss some of the history of previous procurements.
Summary
- Commonality is Boeing’s argument. Derisking the fleet and greater capability is Lockheed’s argument.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 5
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 18, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption, maintenance, and airway/airport fees scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we now examine is the crew cost, where especially the flight crew cost development is troublesome, as pilots changed jobs during the COVID lull or retired early. When air traffic now rebounds, the lack of pilots drives wages and thus costs to new record levels.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace 30-seat ES-30 electric airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- The availability of flight crews is a major problem in the US market. It will spread to other geographies as air traffic picks up after COVID-19.
- The scaling of crew costs per transported passenger is unfavorable for smaller aircraft.