Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
Airbus aggressively seeks to reduce corporate, industry emissions footprint
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By Scott Hamilton
April 25, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus is charging ahead with its ZEROe ecoAviation research and development, focused on hydrogen (H2) power while supporting efforts for Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the meantime. Airbus targets 2035 for a commercial airliner, which will almost certainly be a turboprop—not a jet.
Boeing previously said it believes Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the near-term answer for greening up commercial aviation. By 2030, all its aircraft will be capable of 100% SAF use. Airbus is heading down this path, too.
Airbus believes H2 is the best solution to achieving zero emissions. Battery-powered airplanes and eVTOLs and battery-hybrids are other alternatives. Each has big technical and/or supply challenges to overcome.
In a webinar last week, Amanda Simpson, VP of Research and Technology for Airbus, said designing an entirely new airplane for H2 opens the possibility of an entirely new, high-tech wing design for which other research has been underway. A “Wing of Tomorrow” has been under development for years. Airbus already is pursuing an UpNext eXtra Performance Wing. For shorthand, LNA will identify this as the UNePW.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
April 21, 2022, © Leeham News: In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Kingdom decided to ban Aeroflot and other Russian airlines from its airspace.
Credit: Finnair
A tit-for-tat escalation led to what would have been unthinkable only weeks prior: Western European and North American commercial airlines can’t fly through Russian airspace. Flight restrictions are essentially back to those that existed for many carriers at the height of the Cold War.
The closure of Russian airspace to Western carriers will impact many routes, notably between Western Europe and East Asia. Flights are now longer, increasing fuel burn and reducing payload capabilities.
While passenger airlines have caught most of the attention, the impact is also severe for cargo airlines. As a result, LNA thought it relevant to start a series about the effects of Russian airspace closure on several standard commercial airline routes.
We will start by providing historical context and listing the impacted passenger airlines.
Summary
- A gradual opening of the Siberian corridor during the USSR;
- The proliferation of routes in the post-soviet era;
- Varying level of impact by airline and route.
Understanding ODAs
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By the Leeham News Team
April 19, 2022, © Leeham News: Following 737 MAX grounding, Boeing was found to have exerted undue influence on their ODA unit and its members.
ODA stands for Organization Designation Authorization. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) designates personnel employed by a company to be its official on-site representatives. The MAX crisis put a spotlight on the Boeing-FAA ODA relationship. Faults were found and the uninformed in many cases thought the existence of ODAs was a scandal. But it’s a system that’s been around for decades, and it’s not limited to Boeing.
Let’s look at exactly what that means as we try to understand the impact on certification schedules at Boeing.
Boeing’s Product Certification Timelines and Challenges
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By the Leeham News Team
April 18, 2022, © Leeham News: US Rep. Peter DeFazio, the chairman of the House Transportation Committee, is on record opposing a certification extension for the Boeing 737-10 Max. Under legislation previously passed by Congress, Boeing has until the end of this year to certify the MAX 10.
Boeing 737-10. Source: Boeing.
DeFazio is a Democrat from Oregon who is not seeking reelection this year. He was a fierce critic of Boeing during the House hearings of the MAX crisis. His opposition to extending the certification timeline for the MAX 10 is bad news for Boeing. It was the path of least resistance to completing the Max 10 certification without implementing a new Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System (EICAS) system on the airplane. Requiring EICAS will greatly complicate the certification path and future crew training differences with the rest of the 737 Max models..
How did we get here?
In the wake of the two MCAS-related 737 losses, Congress passed new laws regarding Aviation Safety. The most sweeping of them was the Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act. This is a broad stroke law addressing 37 different portions of the FAA’s review process. It changes a great many things inside Boeing as well as inside the Federal Aviation Administration.
Let’s look through these changes and see how the process changes will impact things.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we speculated that Airbus might decide to upgrade the present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer -900 fuselage.
To understand how competitive it would be, we compare its economics to the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Summary
- Airbus’s A330-900F would be a modest upgrade project, as all bits needed are in production today.
- The result would outcompete all present midrange freighters and give a 787 freighter a match in the market.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a discussion on what should be Airbus’ response to a 787 freighter. We have seen in a series of articles that the 787 freighter would beat the present A330 freighter, and the question is, will Airbus leave this segment to Boeing, or will it respond?
We look at what’s involved for Airbus to upgrade the present A330-200F to a neo freighter and what performance it would have compared to a 787 freighter.
Summary
- An upgrade of Airbus’ present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer, more capable A330-900 would be a modest project for Airbus. All the special bits needed were developed for the A330-200F.
- The resulting A330-900F would be a competitive freighter, and as all needed parts are in serial production today, it could hit the market before a Boeing 787 freighter.
Assessing passenger airline fuel efficiency
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
April 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Fuel prices abruptly increased just as travel restrictions started easing after the Covid-19 Omicron wave. The oil price increase accelerated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What would have seemed unthinkable 20 months ago has arrived: fuel prices are back to their 2010-14 levels.
Most airlines are still healings their wounds from the Covid-19 pandemic. Higher fuel prices are an unwelcome feature that will delay their return to profitability if not significantly complicate it.
Considering the above, LNA thought it relevant to assess the fuel efficiency of the major passenger airlines’ fleets.
Summary
- The paradox and challenges of fuel hedging;
- Explaining the fuel efficiency score methodology;
- Twin-aisle, single-aisle, and regional airline rankings.
A Boeing 787 Freighter, Airbus response
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March. 31, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week’s article showed that a Boeing 787 freighter based on the -9 variant would be a suitable replacement for the aging 767-300F.
Should Boeing proceed with the aircraft, expect Airbus to launch a competing airplane, it not launch it before the American OEM.
The A330-200F recorded 38 sales as a factory freighter, a disappointing tally. Which aircraft variant could Airbus use as a baseline to develop a more successful 787F competitor?
Summary
- A nuanced view on 767-300F and A330-200F factory sales;
- Need for suitable older-generation aircraft replacement;
- Limitations of A330 P2Fs;
- A potential candidate.
An uneven financial recovery among OEMs
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 28, 2022, © Leeham News: In an article last year, LNA highlighted the significant impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on the financials of commercial aviation OEMs. Most recorded sizable losses and charges.
The OEMs entered into a recovery mode in 2021. Airbus intends to aggressively increase its A320neo family production rates to satisfy a strong demand, while Boeing must clear large 737 MAX and 787 backlogs.
The impact of changing production rates takes time to ripple through the supply chain. LNA collected financial information on the big three aircraft manufacturers and seven major commercial aircraft suppliers to assess how quickly they are recovering from the most significant shock since World War II.
Summary
- Significant differences among the three major aircraft OEMs;
- Twin-aisle engine OEMs lagging;
- Varying levels of profitability among OEM suppliers;
- Supply chain challenges to monitor and the war factor.
A Boeing 787 freighter, which model and how good? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we discussed the creation of a Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767-300F, which is running into emission rule problems in 2027.
After looking at what 787 variant makes for the best freighter, we now compare the economics of the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Figure 1. The 767-300F freighter (top) and its possible replacements: 787-8F (middle) and 787-9F (bottom). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- When a Boeing 787 freighter arrives at the decade’s end, its economics will change the freighter market’s dynamics.