Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
767F faces production extinction; Boeing ponders 787F, market says
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March 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s launch of the 777-8F program, with an entry-into-service of 2027, solves part of its freighter challenges.
But it still faces the question of what to do with its aging 767-300ERF.
Both airplanes face a 2027 deadline by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) that limits emissions and noise for today’s in-production aircraft. The 777-200LRF and 767-300ERF fail the new standards.
ICAO crafted the new standards in 2017. Aircraft that fail to meet them must go out of production from 2028 unless an exemption is granted. It’s left to the member governments to formally adopt and enforce the standards—or grant an exemption to them.
Boeing 767-300ERF (top). Concepts of Boeing 787-8F and Boeing 787-9F (middle and bottom). Source: Leeham Co.
The 777-8F solves the upper end of the problem for Boeing. The airframer is seeking an exemption for the smaller 767-300ERF. Industry officials think it unlikely Boeing would receive an indefinite exemption. But a short-term exemption to bridge to another airplane is viewed as possible.
LNA learned in January Boeing is considering developing a freighter out of the 787. Stan Deal, the CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, confirmed at the Singapore Air Show last month that this study is underway.
With Airbus for the first time in its history offering a new-build freighter that is seen as not only competitive to Boeing airplanes but in some quarters viewed as superior, Boeing’s decades-long dominance for cargo aircraft is under serious threat for the first time.
LNA has undertaken an analysis of the 787-8, 787-9, and 767-300ERF to look at which model makes the most sense for Boeing to pursue. LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm will detail our analysis later this week. Today, we’ll look at the background and strategic issues for a second production Boeing freighter.
The large Twin-Aisle replacements
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 10, 2022, © Leeham News: We looked into the replacement market for the large twin-aisles and freighters in our February 28th article.
The obvious replacements for the market’s large Twin-Ailes are Airbus’ A350-1000, and Boeing’s 777-9, replacing 747s and A380s but more often 777-300ERs.
We compare the 777-300ER to the A350-1000 and 777-9 to understand the driving forces behind such replacements.
Summary
- The choice between Airbus’ A350-1000 and Boeing’s 777-9 as the replacement for the market’s large aircraft will be decided by route passenger volumes and commonality more than any difference in the operating economics of the aircraft.
Replacement opportunities for older-generation single-aisle operators
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Several airlines announced orders for new-generation single-aisle aircraft in recent months. Air France – KLM and jet2.com announced Airbus A320neo family orders, while Allegiant and Qatar announced Boeing 737 MAX deals. SmartLynx, a Latvian ACMI carrier, will operate 737 MAXes on operating leases from SMBC Aviation Capital.
Credit: Allegiant Airlines
Despite the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines are eager to order newer-generation single-aisle aircraft to improve their environmental footprint and secure delivery slots, notably on the A320 production line. The low level of interest rates by historical standards also facilitates those transactions.
(This analysis does not include the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the full impacts of which to commercial aviation are still in the future.)
Such orders represent once-in-a-generation opportunities for OEMs to “flip” an airline away from the other one.
Many airlines operate A320ceos or 737 NGs but have not yet ordered new-generation single-aisle aircraft. LNA analyses this population.
Summary
- Breaking down the population into four categories;
- Airlines unlikely to place orders in the near term;
- Two types of potential customers.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 9P. Parallel Hybrid. The deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 4, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 9. Parallel Hybrid. It uses Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model from our consultancy practice to analyze the design of a Parallel Hybrid aircraft for regional operations.
Our design brief is to make turboprop upgrade packages for De Havilland DH8-200,-300, and-400 aircraft. By using a Parallel Hybrid we could “target a 30% reduction in fuel burn and CO2 emissions, compared to a modern regional turboprop airliner” according to Pratt & Whitney Canada. Time to check if we can reach these levels.
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the predicted performance of a new version of Boeing’s 787-10 with an increased Gross Weight as announced by Boeing (called 787-10 HGW by us). We compared its performance and economics to Airbus’ A350-900, the nearest competitor.
The comparison was over a very long route, LAX to Sydney, where the 787-10 HGW performed well but was limited on the cargo side. Now we fly San Franciso to Tokyo, a more typical route for these aircraft, looking at the performance and operating economics.
Summary
- The 787-10 can perform long routes like LAX to Sydney in the HGW version but has payload limits compared with an A350-900.
- On the typical 10 to 12 hours routes, the 787-10 HGW shows its strengths.
The large twin-aisle and freighter replacement market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 28th, 2022, © Leeham News: In recent weeks, we compared the 787-10 Heavy Gross Weight (HGW) performance against the A350-900. The 787-10 HGW will impact sales campaigns against the A350-900 and those of larger aircraft, the A350-1000 and 777X, and large freighters.
LNA now analyses the potential replacement market for very large aircraft (seating 350 or more passengers in standard configurations) and large factory-built freighters.
Summary
- Large twin-aisle campaign opportunities;
- Passenger and cargo fleet commonality considerations;
- Large factory freighter operators.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 8P. Serial Hybrid. The deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm.
February 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 8. Serial Hybrid. It uses Leeham Company’s Aircraft Performance Model from our consultancy practice to analyze the design of a hybrid aircraft for short-haul commuter operations.
Our design brief is to make an aircraft that uses a minimum of carbon-based fuel by combining battery-based energy with energy from a generator driven by a gas turbine. Such a combination is called a Serial Hybrid.
Figure 1. Different electric aircraft architectures compared with the classical Turbofan/Turboprop. Source: Leeham Co.
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A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The CEO of Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA), Stan Deal, said at the Singapore Air show the company worked on increased gross weight versions of both the 787-9 and -10.
Target is to get the 787-10 to the range of the aircraft it shall replace, the 777-200ER and -300ER. It means more than 7,000nm of range against the 6,400nm of today.
How many tonnes of increased Gross weight does this mean, and what would be the performance compared with the Airbus A350-900? We use our airliner performance model to find out.
Summary
- The 787-10 can grow to a range of over 7,000nm with a modest increase of its gross weight.
- It will be competitive with the A350-900 but for the longest routes in such a variant.
For next new airplane, Pratt appears to trail CFM for next new engine
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 21, 2022, © Leeham News: As Boeing ponders whether to launch a new airplane program and industry consensus seems to be that this must happen in 2023 or 2024, Pratt & Whitney seems to face a dilemma.
Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine. Credit: Pratt & Whitney.
Convinced that the Geared Turbo Fan technology is the path to future engines, nevertheless, public statements indicate that by 2035, the GTF in the conventional form will fall short of the Open Fan being developed jointly by GE Aviation and Safran. GE and Safran are 50-50 partners in CFM International, which will sell the engine.
Rick Deurloo, the chief commercial officer for PW, told LNA last October that by 2031 (at the time, 10 years in the future), the GTF will have a 10% improvement in fuel burn and emissions compared with today’s GTF. PW will have a 1% improvement by 2024.
GE’s Travis Harper, who is the program manager for the Open Fan “RISE” engine under development, told LNA earlier this month that the RISE will reduce fuel consumption and emissions by 20% and be ready for entry into service by 2035.
If the goals outlined by Deurloo and Harper are taken at face value and achieved, this means the GTF will be up to 10% short of CFM’s engine ready for EIS four years later.
This was the question LNA put to other representatives of GE and PW at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference Feb. 10.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 16, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the operating economics of the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F. Both freighters are new launches over the last 6 months with planned service entry 2025 (A350F) and 2027 (777-8F).
We flew the freighters with the help of our Aircraft Performance Model over a typical freight trunk route from Shanghai to Anchorage at a full load and compared their economics with the present freighter in this class, the Boeing 777F. Readers demanded we fly them with a part load and on shorter routes, so here we go.
Summary
- When we vary the payload and the route length, the economic differences between the freighters stay roughly the same.