Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 33P. eVTOL batteries. The deeper discussion.
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August 19, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 33, eVTOL batteries. It discusses the trickiest system on an eVTOL, the battery system.
While Lithium Ion batteries have come a long way since the electric flight ideas took off in 2015, the battery system is still the biggest challenge for eVTOL designers, not only for total energy content but for a range of parameters.
Engine Development, Part 1: Launch to Entry into Service
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan
Aug 18, 2022, © Leeham News: LNA analyzed the evolution of commercial aircraft development timelines last month. The time between a program launch and entry into service significantly increased over time, including for derivatives.
The increase in development time is primarily the result of more complex and safer airplanes. Introducing new materials, notably a more extensive use of composites, also explain longer development timelines.
LNA now starts a new series on the topic of commercial aircraft jet engines. The goal is to go through significant innovations from the beginning of the jet age.
This first article analyses whether engine development time between launch and entry into service increased significantly over time.
Summary
- Military development led to the first commercial jet engines;
- The divergence between military and commercial programs;
- Pushing the envelope of the same fundamental engine architecture;
- Harder to identify development timeline evolution.
Boeing prepares to swap engines from MAX inventory to new production
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun says the company won’t build 737 gliders. That’s what airplanes are called as they exit final assembly without engines. The mitigation ironically comes from a circumstance that bedeviled Boeing since March 2019.
Planning is underway to take engines from the large inventory of stored 737 MAX aircraft to install on new production airplanes, LNA confirmed.
Engineless Boeing 737 MAXes in 2018. Boeing is making counterweights to hang on the new-production airplanes if CFM can’t deliver engines on time. Credit: Woody’s Images.
Boeing is producing 20-30 ship sets of counterweights, LNA is told. The counterweights are yellow blocks hung from the pylons to which engines are attached. The weights are needed to prevent the airplanes from sitting on their tails without the heavy engines installed. The counterweights will be installed on the stored airplanes when the CFM LEAP-1B engines are removed to install on new production aircraft as they roll off the final assembly line in Renton (WA).
In 2018, some MAXes rolled off the final assembly line without engines when CFM deliveries couldn’t match the production rate then.
Airbus has upward of 30 A320 gliders because CFM and Pratt & Whitney can’t deliver engines on time due to supply chain issues. Boeing, struggling to return to the 2019 737 production rate of 52/mo following the 21-month grounding of the MAX and a slow recovery from the COVID pandemic, hasn’t produced gliders yet. CFM is the exclusive engine supplier for the MAX.
The industries’ CASM trap
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The airliner world measures efficiency in CASM, Cost per Available Seat Mile, and RASM, Revenue per Available Seat Mile. An airliner with more seats then has lower CASM or RASM.
Looking at seat counts, we can see that the hottest selling single-aisle, the Airbus A321neo, is closing the gap to widebodies like Boeing’s 787-8 and Airbus’ A330-800.
So it’s CASM, and RASM should be phenomenal. Or is it? Are we comparing correctly, or are these Apples and Oranges comparisons? We use the cabin generator of our airliner performance model to understand it better.
Summary
- The measurement of economics per seat makes sense for internal airline work.
- When comparing different airliner types in the same size class or between types (single-aisle, widebody), it’s the wrong method.
Can China pass on Boeing airplanes? A deeper look
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: The FAA lifted the Boeing 737 MAX grounding more than 18 months ago. However, Chinese airlines still have not returned their 737 MAX fleets to passenger service.
Air China 777-300ER
Chinese airlines have also not taken delivery of any 737 MAX since March 2019. Separately, a Boeing 777-300ER for China Southern Airlines has now been pending delivery for more than two years. While Airbus announced a large A320neo order from Chinese airlines on July 1, no similar order materialized for the 737 MAX at the Farnborough Air Show.
The above raises the question of whether China intends to place new commercial aircraft orders with Boeing. Last year, LNA concluded that China could not rely exclusively on Airbus and COMAC to meet its aircraft requirements.
This article revisits whether Chinese airlines can do without Boeing for single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft. Airbus announced its intention to increase A320 family production to 75 per month by 2025. The analysis incorporates replacement needs but also looks at different growth assumptions to see whether output by non-Boeing OEMs can accommodate the fleet requirements of the Chinese market.
Summary
- Current China passenger fleet profile;
- Fleet replacement and growth rate assumptions;
- Estimating maximum possible production rates for China without Boeing;
- China needs Boeing airplanes in most scenarios.
Dual or Single Aisle for Long Haul, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 4, 2022, © Leeham News: We’ve been analyzing whether flying long-haul is better with a single-aisle or with a widebody under identical conditions.
To have equal conditions, we fly between Milano and New York at the practical range limit for our single aisle, Airbus A321XLR. We finished the analysis of Cash Operating Costs; now, we look at passenger and cargo yields and the generated margins on the trips.
Summary
- The margins with identical conditions point the same way as the Cash Costs.
- Any cargo traffic on the route will favor the widebody.
Jump in R&D spending at Boeing Commerical Airplanes points to renewed studies for new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
Return of the NMA? Photo credit: Leeham News.
Aug. 1, 2022, © Leeham News: Buried in Boeing’s second quarter results released last week was a sharp jump in research and development spending.
It wasn’t just a small increase at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA). Boeing spent more on research and development in the quarter and the half year. Expenses hit $1.33bn for the half-year compared with $996m a year earlier. For the quarter, expenses rose $996m vs $497m. R&D for Commercial Airplanes rose to $693m for the half and $372m for the quarter, compared with $524m and $255m, increases of 32% and 46%, respectively.
Spending is still short of the peak in 2019. But the reduced spending post-grounding of the 737 MAX and the COVID-19 pandemic was reversed in the first six months of this year.
Dual or Single Aisle for Long Haul, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 28, 2022, © Leeham News: Two weeks ago, we started looking at the most economical way to fly long-haul. The single-aisle alternative or stay with the trusted widebody?
We laid out a route on the practical range limit for an Airbus A321XLR, Milano to New York. With typical headwinds (as we fly west), it’s close to 4,000nm for the aircraft. The first analysis was for fuel burn. Now we add other costs to form Cash Operating Costs.
Summary
- The fuel burn points one way, the Cash Operating Costs another.
- The background is different costs scale differently with size.
ATR, Embraer, JADC release 20-year turboprop demand forecasts
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By Scott Hamilton
July 25, 2022, © Leeham News: ATR and Embraer released at the Farnborough Air Show their forecasts for the next 20 years for turboprops.
ATR is the only remaining manufacturer of turboprops in the 40-80 seat category outside of China and Russia. Embraer, which got its start in commercial aviation with the 19-seat Bandeirante, exited the turboprop business after the EMB-120 Brasilia. Now, following decades of exclusively supplying regional jets to the world’s commercial aviation market, wants to resume producing turboprops. It’s proposed a two-member family with 70 and 90 seats. EMB claims it has interest from airlines for 250 turboprops, but the program launch remains elusive.
The future small twin-aisle market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
July 21, 2022, © Leeham News: As outlined in the previous article, there are now only 46 orders for twin-aisle aircraft seating 250 or fewer passengers in long-haul cabin configuration (39 Boeing 787-8s and seven Airbus A330-800s). After adjusting for orders at risk, the tally is 28.
However, there are more than 700 older-generation aircraft in service in this segment. The lack of airline and lessor orders points to an inadequate OEM offering. Boeing is not eager to build 787-8s due to the lack of commonality with the other Dreamliner variants. Airbus’ A330-800 has meaningfully worse economics than the -900.
Among the several aircraft concepts Boeing is currently studying, a twin-aisle aircraft with up to 5,000 nautical miles nominal range for this market segment is among them.
LNA analyses in this article the addressable market for small twin-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- The addressable replacement market;
- New order opportunities;
- The impact of growth assumptions;
- Substitution effects and freighter market.