Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
The A350, Part 9: The A350-1000 versus 777-300ER
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we started analyzing the Airbus A350-1000 and compared it with the Boeing 777-300ER.
We now fly the airplanes on a demanding route, close to their maximum range, the LAX to Hong Kong sector. How much better is the 14 years younger A350-1000?
Summary
- The A350-1000 is the logical replacement for a 777-300ER if a same capacity replacement is sought.
- The carbon-fiber structure, a more advanced wing, and newer engines give the A350-1000 convincing arguments for the change.
Suppliers remain hunkered down as pandemic recovery may stall
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
March 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Aerospace suppliers continue to struggle even as passenger airlines begin to gingerly place new aircraft orders and 
Boeing resumes production of the 737 MAX.
Airbus continues to produce the A320, A330 and A350 at lower production rates than the pre-pandemic era. Boeing is at low-rate production for the 737 MAX, after a 20-month grounding. The 777 is down to 2/mo and the 787 goes to 5/mo this month. At least two aerospace analysts on Wall Street think the 787 rate could come down further.
Airbus and Boeing each received a handful of orders so far this year.
But suppliers continue to struggle.
Summary
- Airbus, Boeing continue to extend payments.
- Smaller suppliers seek bankruptcies.
- Larger suppliers remain in “hunker down” mode.
The A350, Part 8 A350-1000 Intro
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Mar. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: After assessing the performance of the A350-900 and its ULR variant, we now turn our attention to the largest A350 variant, the -1000. It entered service in 2018, a little more than three years after the -900.
Summary
- Stretching the aircraft by different means than the 777-300ER;
- A change of plan costs a significant order;
- Moderate sales and limited prospects in a changing market;
- An aircraft for trunk routes.
Boeing’s Ability to Finance the Next Airliner
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 1, 2021, © Leeham News: The combination of the 737 MAX crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic led Boeing to lose $12.5bn over the 2019-2020 period. Boeing Commercial Aviation (BCA) lost $20.5bn during those two years, compared with a $7.8bn operating profit in 2018. Revenues at the division fell from $60.7bn in 2018 to $16.2bn in 2020.
The severe difficulties at BCA led Boeing to issue record amounts of debt. Net debt (subtracting cash and short-term investments) increased from $5.2bn to $38bn between the end of 2018 and 2020. Boeing issued another $9bn in debt in early February to refinance a portion of this debt.
As the commercial aviation ecosystem recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, Boeing’s financial situation should improve. However, the OEM will have to deal with the sizable debt load accumulated during the twin 737 MAX and COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
LNA analyzes Boeing’s financial situation, including the OEM’s ability to finance a future aircraft program.
Summary
- A strained balance sheet;
- Two healthy products and a weak one;
- Post COVID-19 recovery prospects for BCA;
- Hard choices to finance a new aircraft program.
The A350, Part 7: The A350-900ULR versus 777-200LR/A340-500
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 25, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we started analyzing the long rangers of the Airbus A350, Boeing 777, and Airbus A340 families.
The A340-500 and the 777-200LR are a generation older than the A350-900ULR. We compare their performance on the world’s most challenging route, Singapore to New York, to find out how much Singapore Airlines gains by changing from the A340-500 to the A350-900ULR.
Summary
- The A350-900ULR is unique among the Ultra Long Range aircraft by being a lightly changed variant of the standard A350-900.
- By adopting the A350-1000 tank filling levels, the aircraft has enough fuel to fly up to 20 hours with a long-range payload.
- Should the airline change its mind, the A350-900ULR can convert back to a standard A350-900.
- With modern technology, it outclasses the economics of the 777-200LR and A340-500.
Differentiation in the marketplace and the time for the open rotor
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By the Leeham News Team
Introduction
Feb. 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Airliners are now so efficient, one challenge facing Airbus and Boeing in competing is overcoming the laws of diminishing returns.
The time may finally have come for an Open Rotor airliner. Source: Safran.
LNA described this challenge Feb. 8. Additionally, airport infrastructure erects a vast number of design roadblocks.
We focused on the creation of the 737 replacement and how difficult it will be to make meaningful performance upgrades to the economics of the vehicle. We outlined the next battle in product differentiation most likely will occur in optimizing non-flying time operations, focusing on ground operations as the next efficiency battleground. Since then, it was reported that Boeing indicated that a new aircraft sized between the 737 and the 767/NMA was a front runner in their future planning.
Summary
- NMA Lite needed for 737-9/10 to 787-8 sector.
- Replacement for 737-7 and 737-8 best suited for Open Rotor design.
- What an Open Rotor plane might look like
The A350, Part 6 A350-900ULR Intro
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 18, 2021, © Leeham News: After comparing the Airbus A350-900 and the Boeing 777-200ER on a long haul route, we turn our attention to the A350-900 Ultra Long Range variant.
Summary
- A history of Ultra Long Haul Flights;
- Proliferation along with globalization;
- Poor sales record of ULR variants;
- The attractiveness of the A350-900ULR.
Airbus’ production plans
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 15, 2021, © Leeham News: LNA wrote last month an article about Boeing’s latest production plans for future years. Airbus announced updated production plans on Jan. 21.
Airbus’ latest production plans call for a shallower increase in A320 production rates than envisioned earlier due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The A220 production rate will go back to five per month, while twin-aisle rates will stay flat for the foreseeable future. Airbus postponed an envisioned A350 production rate hike while predicting a return to pre-COVID demand levels by 2023 to 2025.
These updated delivery rates reflect customer’s delivery preferences. Ahead of Airbus’ earnings release on Feb. 18, LNA analyses the revised delivery schedule for coming years on the four major commercial programs.
Summary
- Some A220 delays;
- Slight A320 adjustments;
- Lower for longer on twin-aisle programs;
- Near-term delivery concerns on one program.
The A350, Part 5: The A350-900 versus 777-200ER
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we started analyzing the main member of the Airbus A350 family, the A350-900. It’s the design center for the A350 family and has so far 747 orders, of which 354 are delivered.
Over 1,000 Boeing 777 airliners in the market need replacement, and the A350-900 targets about half of these, the 777-200 and -200ER. Delta is one airline that started the switch from 777-200ER to A350-900. How much does Delta stand to gain?
Summary
- The 777-200ER broke the ground for oceanic twin-engine flights. It offered an improved economy on trans-oceanic routes.
- Airliner technology advanced for the 18 years younger A350-900, spurred on by Boeing’s technical leaps with the 787 Dreamliner.
- As the A350-900 employed these gains in the 777-200ER size class, it does to the 777-200ER what it did to Airbus A340-300, it wins the economy race hands down. Read more
The world of diminishing returns: challenges Boeing faces
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By the Leeham News Team
Introduction
Feb. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing faces a dilemma of Solomonic proportion.
Which direction should it extend its product offerings?
With the suspension a year ago of the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) project by incoming CEO David Calhoun, Boeing’s future airplane strategy was upended.
Some Internet pundits said Boeing needed a clean-sheet replacement for the 737. Others said it needs to be a 757/NMA sized vehicle.
Last week, Aviation Week reported Boeing appears to now be headed in the direction of a three-member “NMA Lite” family. LNA outlined this approach last June. Feb. 3’s LNA post has more detail.
While Boeing faces near-term decisions, the challenges go well beyond launching a new airplane and the new engines required to power it.
Summary
- Advances of diminishing returns.
- Staying within the ICAO box.
- Taking the fight to the ground.