Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 24. May 30, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3. May 29, 2025
- Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals May 26, 2025
A350-1000 or 777-8? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 16, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series comparing the capabilities of the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777X. We have looked at the A350-1000 versus the 777-9 and started comparing the history and capabilities of the 777-8 versus the A350-1000 last week.
Now, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to fly the aircraft on a typical route and compare their performance.
Summary:
- The A350-1000 and the latest 777-8 definition is a closer payload-range match than the A350-1000 and 777-9.
- Passenger and cargo capabilities are similar. The economic comparison will be determined by maintenance costs for the engines.
A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 2, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series comparing the capabilities of the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777-9. We looked at the development history of the aircraft and then their capability and fuel economics.
We could see that the 777-9 is trailing the A350-1000 in payload range, partly because we compare the base version of the 777-9 with a further developed A350-1000. Now, we investigate what the 777-9 performance would be should we include a typical future development of the Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW).
Summary:
- The A350-1000 has a clear payload-range advantage over the standard 777-9.
- With an in-service Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) development like the A350-1000, the difference is reduced.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 5. Turbofan design problems
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 26, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now dominates new airliner development when it comes to the needed calendar time and risks.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
We discussed geared versus direct-drive turbofans last week. Now, we’ll examine some design problems for these engines.
Figure 1. The Pratt & Whitney PW1100G geared turbofan, with its unique aluminum fan. Source: Pratt & Whitney.
A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 10, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series comparing the capabilities of the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777-9. The A350-1000 has not been a hot seller, and a lot of analysts asked why. Is there a capability gap or what is the reason?
At the same time, the reworked Boeing 777X had reassuring initial sales at the November 2013 launch at the Dubai Air Show, where Emirates ordered 150 777-9 out of a total show orderbook of 259 aircraft for Emirates (150), Qatar (50), Lufthansa (34), and Ethiad (20). The orders have since grown to 481 as of late 2023.
The A350-1000 has had a recent resurgence in orders and switches from the A350-900 orders, whereas the 777–9 has seen several delays due to engine and certification problems and is now scheduled for 2025 delivery instead of 2020.
Does the 777-9 or the A350-1000 hold the upper hand in a long-term race between the largest widebodies after the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747-8i stopped deliveries? We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to compare the two to understand their present performance and potential for upgrades.
Summary:
- The Boeing 777-9 is a larger and heavier aircraft with a 12% higher passenger capacity.
- Does an advanced wing and later generation engines compensate for an older and heavier fuselage structure?
Bjorn’ s Corner: Engine development. Part 1. Introduction
March 29, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We finished our article series about New Aircraft Technologies last week. It dealt with the different new technologies that a next-generation airliner could use to increase efficiency and by it environmental emissions.
An area that we touched upon but didn’t dig deeper into was engine development. When airframe development historically decided how long a new generation of aircraft took to develop, it gradually changed to engine development being the more calendar-time-consuming and riskier development for the last generations. This article series will discuss why and what can be done about it.
Figure 1. CFM RISE, a new engine development for the next generation of airliners. Source: CFM.
Bjorn’ s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 49. Engine Maintenance
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 8, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering the Design and Production, we now look at the Operational phase of a new airliner family.
For the operational phase, the airplane must pass scrutiny for Continued Airworthiness. The biggest item in a regulator’s Instructions for Continued Airworthiness is the required Maintenance program to keep an airliner airworthy. We discussed airframe maintenance in the last article. Now, we look at engine maintenance.
Figure 1. The CFM56-7 engine for the Boeing 737NG. Source: CFM.
Rolls Royce tackles Trent engine issues as profits take flight
By Tom Batchelor
February 23, 2024, © Leeham News: The turnaround at Rolls Royce is well-underway as the company revealed a more than doubling of its annual profit – ahead of expectations – at its full year 2023 results announcement on Thursday.
Just a year after the incoming CEO Tufan Erginbilgic warned that the engine group was a “burning platform”, revenues climbed to £15.4bn ($19.4bn at current rates), up from £12.7bn ($16bn) in 2022, and profits soared by 143% to £1.6bn ($2bn), from £652m ($823m). Analysts had estimated profits closer to £1.3bn ($1.6bn) for 2023.
Key financial indicators for Rolls Royce in 2023. Click to enlarge. Credit: Rolls Royce
RR delivered a total of 458 engines last year, including 262 destined for large civil aircraft, alongside orders for around 700 powerplants.
Speaking during a briefing call, former BP executive Erginbilgic called it a “transformation” which had “delivered a record performance in 2023”.
Notably, progress is being made on improvements to the Trent XWB-97 and Trent 1000 engines, designed to address durability issues reported by customers operating widebodies in dry and dusty environments.
“We are creating momentum and a track record of significant delivery,” Erginbilgic said, though “bottlenecks” caused by both labor and parts shortages would continue to be a factor into 2026.
“We expect the supply chain to remain challenging for another 18-24 months,” he said. Read more
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 14, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We have described the history of the 767 and the key data of the different variants in last week’s article. Now, we look at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines and what consequences these bring.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines for the 767 mean changes to the landing gear and structures to house larger and heavier engines.
- For the payload capacity to stay the same a deeper grab in the 767-400 toolbox is necessary than just adopting the landing gear.
Rolls-Royce sets out ambitious vision to future-proof its business
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By Gordon Smith
November 29, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s (RR) capital markets day presented a business that has bookended 2023 with two very different narratives. The November 28 event heralded targets such as a quadrupling of operating profit within five years, delivered via a bullish new growth strategy and re-energized vision for the future. How different things felt just 11 months earlier.
In January, new chief executive Tufan Erginbilgic adopted something of a shock-and awe approach, describing the company’s position in terms so blunt that it made even the most experienced market watchers blush.
Picking up the baton from Warren East – who had led the business for eight years – Erginbilgic’s comments went beyond the conventional candor of an incoming exec and spooked many. The new boss labeled the British firm a “burning platform” and described Rolls’ status quo as “unsustainable”.
Despite efficiency drives instigated by his predecessor, Erginbilgic’s message was clear; 2023 represented a “last chance” to change. Needless to say, there was a particularly high degree of expectation behind Rolls’ flagship investor event, his first as CEO.
Pontifications: Airbus ponders A330neo MRTT, Boeing ponders KC-46A re-engine
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: In a reversal of intent, the airplane that Airbus may submit to the US Air Force for the next round of aerial tanker procurement may be based on the A330neo instead of the current production A330-200ceo MRTT.
The Air Force, however, may forego competition between Airbus and Boeing and place a sole-source follow-on order with Boeing for the KC-46A tanker, based on the 767-200ER. Boeing already has a contract for 179 KC-46As, and the USAF appears to be leaning toward a sole-source award. Political pressure from Airbus partisans and others who favor competition may prevail.
Related articles
- Airbus to develop second generation MRTT based on A330neo. (Aviation Week.)
- Lockheed Martin sees MRTT as complimentary to KC-46A
- Lockheed bows out, Airbus to continue, Boeing favored in tanker procurement
Airbus wants to discontinue production of the A330-200ceo-based MRTT. The neo-based version would be based on the A330-800. Sales of the -800 are poor—fewer than 20 have been ordered. An -800 based MRTT will breathe life into the nearly still-born model.
- Boeing considers re-engining the 767-300ERF and the KC-46A.
- KC-46A, 767-200, A330 MRTT exempt from 2027 ICAO standards.